Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

期货热点追踪 5-6月铁水产量下行空间有限，叠加市场乐观情绪仍在，机构预计铁矿石年均价格为…… 相关链接 ...

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 765 CNY/ton and Brazilian mixed powder at 776 CNY/ton [1] - The main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.06% (+7.5) to close at 714.5 CNY/ton [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder, with warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder at 810 CNY and 795 CNY respectively. The basis for the 09 contract PB powder is 96 CNY/ton [2] Demand Metrics - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4564 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.22 million tons; the blast furnace operating rate is 84.62%, up by 0.29%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 92.09%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and the steel mill profit margin is 58.87%, up by 2.59 percentage points [3] Supply Dynamics - Global shipments have slightly rebounded this week, with a decrease of 21.5 million tons to 30.29 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 24.225 million tons, down by 1.18 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.972 million tons, up by 0.28 million tons, with 15.938 million tons sent to China, an increase of 0.755 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.252 million tons, down by 1.46 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.546 million tons, down by 0.951 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of May 8, the inventory at 45 ports stands at 142.387 million tons, a decrease of 0.6377 million tons; steel mills have slightly resumed production, and the profit margin for steel mills has improved. The imported ore inventory at steel mills decreased by 3.7607 million tons to 89.5898 million tons, as inventory was consumed during the holiday period [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a spike and subsequent pullback, with night trading accelerating upward. The average daily pig iron production has slightly increased week-on-week, maintaining a high level. SMM reports an increase in maintenance at steel mills, with a rise in maintenance for construction materials and hot-rolled coils, suggesting a potential peak in pig iron production. Inventory levels have decreased to a yearly low, with port inventories slightly declining. The outlook for the market indicates that terminal demand for finished steel will determine the sustainability of high pig iron production levels, with marginal changes influenced by exports and infrastructure projects. Current data shows unexpected high exports of steel billets, and SMM's high-frequency steel export data has surged. However, the supply-demand pressure for iron ore is expected to increase in the coming months due to a surge in overseas mine shipments, while macroeconomic sentiment may provide short-term support. The short-term valuation of iron ore is expected to recover, but a bearish outlook is maintained for the medium to long term [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, representing a clear short - term downward trend, and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a short - term downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall metal market is in a complex situation with various influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and downstream industry conditions. Different metal products have different trends, and short - term price movements are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to factors like demand intensity in peak seasons, policy implementation, and iron - water production changes [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is under pressure and has declined. Thread steel's apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, lacking sustained recovery. Its production is basically flat, and inventory continues to decline with a relatively low absolute value. Hot - rolled coil's supply - demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Iron - water production has reached a high level, but future production resumption will slow down due to falling steel - making profits. The downstream industries of steel, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, have improved, while the real - estate sector is still weak. The Sino - US tariff policy will continue to be debated, and the expectation of crude - steel reduction has cooled rapidly. The market will mainly show weak oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to position control before holidays [1] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is oscillating. The global shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded and is at a relatively strong level in the same period, and port inventory has started to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week's iron - water production increased significantly, and short - term steel - mill profitability is acceptable, so iron - water production is expected to remain high. There were no super - expected policies in important domestic meetings, and the impact of production - restriction news on the market has weakened. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, with certain short - term support, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling iron - water production in the future [2] Coke - The coke price is oscillating downward. The second round of price increases by coking enterprises has been rejected, and the bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has continued to increase slightly. The overall coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and there is no purchasing enthusiasm in the trade market. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and downstream iron - water production has continued to increase significantly, with good steel - billet export orders. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is oscillating downward. The production of coking - coal mines is gradually recovering, but this week's production has still slightly decreased due to some mines. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has loosened. Terminal inventory is still high, and there is no additional restocking demand during the May Day holiday. The total coking - coal inventory is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The market price is under pressure from inventory and tariff fluctuations, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [4] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has reached a new low this year due to the wavering tariff policy. The national manganese - ore port inventory has been continuously increasing. According to Steel Union data, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by more than 300,000 tons last week. The spot and forward - looking prices of manganese ore have both declined. Although iron - water production has increased significantly, the supply of silicomanganese has continued to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is oscillating downward due to the wavering tariff policy. Iron - water production has increased significantly. Export demand is generally in a downward trend month - on - month, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased, and secondary demand is average, resulting in a marginal decline in overall demand. The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to increase. Its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6]

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 764 CNY/ton (+3), and Brazilian mixed powder at 778 CNY/ton (+6) [1] - The main iron ore futures contract closed at 710.5 CNY/ton, up 0.21% (+1.5) [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 809 CNY and 797 CNY, respectively. The basis for the May contract for PB powder is approximately 46.6 CNY/ton [2] Demand Dynamics - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons month-on-month. The blast furnace operating rate is 84.33%, up 0.77% from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 91.60%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points. The profit margin for steel mills is 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points [3] Supply Situation - Global shipments have slightly increased this week, with a total of 31.882 million tons shipped, up 2.627 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.584 million tons, an increase of 3.206 million tons. Australia shipped 19.952 million tons, up 1.960 million tons, with 16.472 million tons going to China, an increase of 729,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 7.632 million tons, up 1.246 million tons. The total port arrivals were 25.128 million tons, an increase of 1.875 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of April 24, the inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons. The iron ore arrivals at ports have rebounded, and the unloading efficiency has improved, leading to an increase in port inventory. The number of ships waiting at ports remains high. The steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 20.11% to 90.7303 million tons, with daily consumption slightly rising as mills maintain a low inventory strategy [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced fluctuations, influenced by production restriction news, indicating that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in the near term. The specifics of the production restrictions are yet to be determined. The significant increase in daily pig iron production to 2.44 million tons is attributed to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of high furnace operations. The sustainability of this high production level will depend on terminal demand. The market for finished steel continues to deplete inventory, with rebar and wire rod showing a pullback after a surge, while hot-rolled steel remains stable and cold-rolled steel shows slight recovery. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, while port arrivals have significantly decreased. The recovery in unloading efficiency has led to an increase in port inventory, with high levels of ships waiting. Looking ahead, the sustainability of high pig iron production will depend on terminal demand, with marginal changes expected in exports and infrastructure. A decline in exports is likely, and domestic demand will be crucial. The current high pig iron production coupled with inventory accumulation and increased overseas shipments expected in May and June suggests that supply and demand pressures will intensify, leading to continued downward pressure on iron ore prices [6]