Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The iron ore is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, iron ore oscillated lower and closed down at night [1] 3.2 Important Information - The US 301 investigation and restrictive measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries seriously damage the interests of relevant Chinese industries [1] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 14,961.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.79 tons [1] - Sichuan suspended the old - for - new vehicle subsidy policy starting from October 18 [1] - From January to September 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; the new order volume was 66.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%; as of the end of September, the order - on - hand volume was 242.24 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. China's three major shipbuilding indicators accounted for 53.8%, 67.3%, and 65.2% of the world's total in deadweight tons, and 47.3%, 63.5%, and 58.6% in corrected gross tons respectively, remaining globally leading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The average daily pig iron output last week was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0059 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00659 million tons. Pig iron output declined for the second week, still at a relatively high level and showing signs of peaking. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,961.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.79 tons [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is expected that iron ore will maintain an oscillating trend. The pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed, and macro - disturbances have significantly decreased. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to the real situation. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily rising, the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended but hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is low. Iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [2]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The reference range is 780 - 80 yuan/ton, corresponding to 103 - 105 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, macro - disturbances have weakened. The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations and is defined as a preventive cut, with the expectation of continuous rate cuts weakening. Domestic policies are still in the reserve period. The black - series industrial chain is highly differentiated, with the raw material end generally stronger than the finished product end. The expectation of increasing iron ore supply remains unchanged. Steel mill复产 has driven up hot metal production. Although steel mill profits have fallen to the break - even line, the willingness of steel mills to actively cut production is still insufficient, but pre - holiday restocking is basically over, and the short - term upward driving force has weakened [2]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipments have decreased significantly, and Brazil's shipments have decreased slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the five - week average is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. This period has seen the continuation of steel mill复产 in blast furnaces, mainly due to the regular resumption of production after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang. Domestic demand is higher than the August average (240.5). The daily average hot metal production this period is 242.36 tons (month - on - month increase of 1.34). As steel mill production costs rise and finished product prices weaken, blast furnace profits have declined from a high level and are approaching the break - even level, and the steel mill profitability rate continues to decline. The pre - holiday restocking demand is basically over. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The steel mill inventory level has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to high domestic demand and insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a potential rebound in coking prices, driven by supply constraints and steady downstream demand, despite some steel mills experiencing profit declines [6] Supply - As of September 25, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 663,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons [3] - The total coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 464,000 tons per day, also down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,128,000 tons per day, a decrease of 6,000 tons week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,423,600 tons, an increase of 13,400 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, up by 0.47% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for pig iron production was 90.86%, an increase of 0.50% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 58.01%, down by 0.86% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of September 25, the total coking coal inventory was 9.816 million tons, an increase of 97,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Independent coking enterprises held 630,000 tons of coking coal inventory, a decrease of 34,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.613 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.573 million tons, down by 35,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Trends - As of September 25, the main coking coal futures contract (2601) rose by 30.0 (+1.73%) to 1,760.0, while the far-month contract (2605) increased by 29.0 (+1.55%) to 1,900.0 [1] - The price of premium wet quenching metallurgical coke in Lüliang was reported at 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the trade price in Rizhao was 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [1][6] Market Outlook - The recent price adjustments by major steel mills, with a cumulative reduction of 50/55 yuan/ton, have led to expectations of a gradual rebound in coking coal prices, potentially allowing for 2-3 rounds of price increases [6] - The steel industry is under pressure to control production capacity and reduce pollution, with a focus on the actual implementation of these measures in Shanxi province [6] - The market is advised to monitor the fluctuations in the steel market and the fulfillment of seasonal demand expectations during September and October [6]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - **Coke**: The sixth round of coke price increase has been implemented, leading to positive profits for coke enterprises and a rebound in coke production. Hot metal production remains at a high level, strongly supporting the demand side. Coke supply and demand are tight, and the total coke inventory is decreasing. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, so attention should be paid to coal mine supply. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coke index expected to trade between 1600 - 1780. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, steel sales, and coke enterprise inventories [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production is at a low level, and the upcoming September 3 parade may further reduce production. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The downstream replenishment intensity has slowed down, with middle and lower - stream inventories decreasing and upstream coal mine inventories increasing. There may be an expected increase in seaborne coal imports. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coking coal index expected to trade between 1120 - 1300. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, hot metal production, Mongolian coal customs clearance, and downstream replenishment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - After the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits turned positive, coke production of coke enterprises rebounded, while that of steel mills declined, but the total coke production increased. As of August 15, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.38 million tons (+0.28), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.73 million tons (-0.07), and the total output was 112.11 million tons (+0.21) [16]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase led to positive profits for coke enterprises. As of August 15, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton (+36) [20]. Demand - Last week, hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month. Supported by non - five major steel products demand and good steel mill profits, the seasonal decline in hot metal production is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, strongly supporting coke demand. As of August 15, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons (+0.34); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8716300 tons (+24200); the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8% (-2.6); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.22% (+0.13); the blast furnace operating rate was 83.59% (-0.16) [24]. Inventory - Last week, coke inventories at all levels decreased. Steel mills actively purchased, and the inventory of upstream coke enterprises continued to decline. The total coke inventory decreased. As of August 15, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 625100 tons (-72200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6098000 tons (-94800); the total inventory of four major ports was 2151100 tons (-30400), and the total coke inventory was 8874200 tons (-197400) [28]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants decreased to 10.83 days (-0.08) [32]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1605 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 125, the May contract was - 227, and the September contract was - 48. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [35]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 76.5, and the January - May contracts was - 102. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [39]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production continued to decline, and the September 3 parade is expected to further reduce production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100000 tons. Seaborne coal may have a certain increase, which will have a bearish impact on the futures market. As of August 15, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1879100 tons (-3600), with an operating rate of 83.73% (-0.16); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26400 tons (+360), with an operating rate of 36.51% (+0.29) [44]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has reached over 100000 tons [46]. Demand - Coke production increased month - on - month but is at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 15, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 8294100 tons (-33400), with available days of 11.93 days (-0.11), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 695200 tons (+3600); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600), with available days of 12.97 days (-0.02), and the converted daily consumption was 621300 tons (-1200); the total daily consumption was 1316500 tons (+2300) [51]. Coal Washing Plant Inventory - Due to reduced downstream replenishment enthusiasm, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased. As of August 15, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2970300 tons (+89200) [55]. Inventory - After a period of replenishment, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. Last week, coke enterprises, steel mills, and ports all reduced their inventories, while coal mine inventories increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of August 15, the total port inventory was 2554900 tons (-218500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9768800 tons (-110400); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 2576700 tons (+120100); the total coking coal inventory was 22958400 tons (-237400). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.93 days (-0.11); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.97 days (-0.02) [62]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1008 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 223, the May contract was - 279, and the September contract was - 73. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 149.5, and the January - May contracts was - 56. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [71].