Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a new era of non-linear changes in copper and gold prices, with expectations for sustained price increases [14]. - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to significantly disrupt copper supply, enhancing the certainty of rising copper prices in the medium term [14][15]. - The report highlights that the copper smelting capacity growth is likely to slow down, which may improve smelting fees and profitability for copper smelting companies [15]. - For gold, the report emphasizes that the core pricing logic is tied to the deterioration of dollar credit in the medium term, rather than short-term interest rate expectations [16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply shortages exacerbated by the Grasberg mine incident, which could reduce copper concentrate supply by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [14]. - It notes that global demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and data center expansion [14]. - The report also mentions that the copper smelting industry is facing a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to improved smelting fees in the future [15]. 2. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to find support at the bottom due to cost factors, with a potential recovery in profitability in the fourth quarter [18]. - It highlights a seasonal shift in demand, with an increase in rebar consumption by 4.96% week-on-week, although it remains down 13.71% year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the overall steel price index has slightly decreased by 0.28%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing a decline of 0.65% [39]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54% in August 2025, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [43]. - It also mentions that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth rates, with August 2025 figures showing a 26.00% increase in production [47]. - The prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel have shown an overall upward trend, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal market [54].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1% during the week. This was influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, who noted that stock valuations are high and that rapid rate cuts could keep inflation near 3%, above the Fed's 2% target [2][9][11] - Economic data showed signs of improvement, with initial and continuing jobless claims decreasing. The final annualized Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating a strengthening labor market and economy [2][10][11] - The core PCE inflation rate for August remained steady at 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, suggesting that tariff impacts are subsiding [2][10][11] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with NYMEX platinum rising by 8.60%, while the Korean Composite Index fell by 1.72%, marking the largest decline [3][34] - The report highlights that the Shenzhen Component Index had the highest increase among global equity markets, rising by 1.06%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.09% [3][39] - The report notes that the energy sector in the US stock market saw the largest gain at 3.35%, while the communication services sector experienced the largest drop at -2.91% [46] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone M3 money supply and a decline in the UK industrial trends orders index [60][67] - It tracks important data releases for the week, including the US Q2 GDP final value, which was revised to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims, which fell to 218,000 [74]

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 银金比修复重视白银弹性，铜供给扰动助涨铜价 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 第二轮降息启幕，当前类比 2020 年 4-6 月，应重视银金比修复下白银弹性。上周核心数据中， 通胀符合预期、而消费信心指数进一步创新低，催生降息概率提升。基本金属：一方面，降息 落地利好兑现叠加自然的需求担忧，工业金属普跌；另一方面，Grasberg 铜矿事故停产，影响 2025Q4 销量近 20 万吨，2026 年铜产量 27 万吨，供需提前逆转助涨铜价。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 风险提示 1、全球经济复苏进度不及预期，全球新能源 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属季报 金银 降息周期开启 金银强势突破 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2025 年三季度，贵金属市场整体呈现"先震荡蓄势，后强势爆发"的走势。 7 月至 8 月，金银在货币政策预期摇摆与地缘局势扰动中逐步夯实底部；进入 9 月，随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，金银价格开启主 升浪，内外盘联动屡创历史新高。截至 9 月 27 日，纽约金最高触及 3824.6 美 元/盎司，成功突破 3800 美元重要关口，最终收于 3789.8 美元/盎司；内盘沪 金同步走强，刷新历史高点至 865.28 元/克，站稳 850 元关键位上方，收盘报 862.50 元/克。白银表现更为亮眼，纽约银强势突破 45 美元/盎司整数大关， 最高升至 46.945 美元/盎司，收于 46.365 美元/盎司；沪银亦同步攀升，突破 万元大关后继续上攻，最高触及 10974 元/千克，收于 10936 元/千克。值得关 注的是，9 月以来内外盘白银累计涨幅均超 10%，进一步凸显其在金融属性与 工业需求共振 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 降息周期开启，推荐关注稀土磁材、钨、钴等 关键金属 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -20% -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 有色金属 沪深300 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼政府暂停 39 家镍矿企业，或提升市场镍供应偏 紧预期 截止到 9 月 26 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,035 美元/ 吨，较 9 月 19 日下跌 0.66%，LME 镍总库存为 230,124 吨， 较 9 月 19 日增加 0.74%；沪镍报收 12.15 万元/吨，较 9 月 19 日下跌 0.16%，沪镍库存为 29,008 吨，较 9 月 19 日减少 2.77%；截止到 9 月 26 日，硫酸镍报收 28,600 元/吨，较 9 月 19 日价格上涨 1.60%。根据 SMM，本周，当前有一 ...

文字早评 2025/09/26 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示，国家有关部门正在加快研究如何加强对铜冶炼产能建设规范 化管理具体措施，相信会很快有结果; 2、公募基金总规模突破 36 万亿，今年以来第五次创历史新高，其中 8 月股票基金规模增长超 6200 亿 元，混合基金规模增长超 3300 亿元，货币基金规模增长超 1900 亿元，而债券基金规模下降超 280 亿元; 3、中国外汇交易中心优化"互换通"运行机制 10 月 13 日起提高每日净限额至 450 亿元； 4、20CM 两连板上纬新材：多次触及股票交易异常波动及严重异常波动情形 明起停牌核查。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.49%/-0.68%/-1.34%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-1.67%/-2.38%/-4.78%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.82%/-1.95%/-2.99%/-5.87%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.04%/0.03%/-0.09%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global demand for construction machinery is expected to decline by 3% in 2023 and 5% in 2024 according to Guojin Securities based on Komatsu's financial report [1] - Overseas demand has been declining for two and a half years as of June this year, indicating that inventory destocking is nearing its end [1] - There is optimism regarding a recovery in overseas demand driven by a resurgence in demand from Europe and the United States amid a rate-cutting cycle [1]

紫金矿业（02899）早盘涨超6%，截至发稿，股价上涨5.87%，现报31.38港元，成交额20.74亿港元。 紫金矿业此前发布公告，公司收到通知，受超强台风"桦加沙"影响，紫金黄金国际原定于9月24日结束的香港公开发售登记事项将推迟1天完成，预计紫金黄金国际股份在香港联交所挂牌并开始 东方证券发布研报称，25年9月美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，市场预计连续降息周期或开启。降息周期的开启有助于黄金、铜等金属迎来上涨行情，看好公司铜金业务实现 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]