降息周期

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联储“换帅风波”及其潜在影响
2025-07-21 14:26
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its potential leadership changes, particularly in the context of the Trump administration's influence on monetary policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Leadership Change on Fed Independence** The forced removal of Chairman Powell could severely challenge the Fed's independence, potentially leading to significant market turmoil across equities, bonds, and currencies, referred to as a "triple kill" [1][5][7] 2. **Market Reactions to New Chair Nominees** The market typically reacts positively when a new Fed chair is perceived as dovish, with U.S. stocks generally rising, while the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields may initially decline before returning to previous trends [2][11] 3. **Trump's Influence on Fed Policy** Trump's public criticism of Powell's monetary policy has led to market volatility, with speculation about a shadow chair influencing Powell's decisions. This speculation has resulted in a wave of rate cut trading despite strong economic data [3][9] 4. **Feasibility of Changing Fed Leadership** While the Fed operates independently, the President can influence its decisions by appointing or dismissing board members. The legal grounds for dismissal are ambiguous, and any forced removal could face judicial challenges [4][6] 5. **Potential Effects of a Shadow Chair** The establishment of a shadow chair could lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, with the potential for long-term influence on the Fed's decisions. A forced change would likely create panic in the markets, while a more gradual transition would have a lesser impact [5][7] 6. **Candidates for New Fed Chair and Policy Implications** Current leading candidates for the new Fed chair include Hassett, Basant, Waller, and Walsh. Historical trends suggest that new chairs typically align their policies with existing economic cycles, although some may initiate significant policy shifts depending on inflation conditions [6][8] 7. **Market Signals from Leadership Changes** A forced change in leadership sends panic signals to the market, increasing asset volatility and weakening the credibility of dollar assets. In contrast, a more measured approach to leadership transition may mitigate market disruptions [7][10] 8. **Economic Conditions Over Personal Bias** Changes in the Fed's interest rate policies are primarily driven by economic conditions rather than the personal inclinations of the new chair. Market expectations regarding the new chair's policies are often accurate, especially during critical economic transitions [8][9] 9. **Presidential Influence on Rate Decisions** If the President publicly influences the market, the Fed may adjust its rate decisions accordingly. Historical examples show that persistent presidential pressure can lead to eventual rate cuts, despite initial resistance from the Fed [9][10] 10. **Current Economic Indicators and FOMC Meeting Outlook** Recent U.S. employment data shows resilience, with low unemployment rates supported by government jobs. Inflation is gradually rising, suggesting that a rate cut in July may not be appropriate, with a higher likelihood of action in September after confirming inflation trends [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The historical context of previous Fed chairs indicates that leadership changes often align with economic cycles, suggesting that the new chair's policies may not deviate significantly from established trends unless economic conditions dictate otherwise [6][8] - The potential for a shadow chair to influence market expectations could lead to unprecedented shifts in monetary policy, highlighting the importance of monitoring political developments closely [5][7]
有色金属行业2025年中期投资策略:中长期看好金铜铝,重视战略金属
Southwest Securities· 2025-07-18 09:03
Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]
高盛:美国潜在通胀总体仍较为温和
news flash· 2025-07-15 13:11
Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that potential inflation in the U.S. remains relatively mild despite early signs of tariff impacts in the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The firm anticipates increased price pressures during the summer, with the CPI reports for July and August being critical milestones to watch [1] - Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, but if potential inflation continues to remain mild, there is still a possibility for the Fed to restart the rate cut cycle in the fall [1]
中原地产:银行按揭态度渐转乐观 香港楼价有望止跌回升
智通财经网· 2025-07-10 08:46
Group 1 - The Central Valuation Index (CVI) for major banks has risen to 65.38 points, marking a significant increase of 5.59 points from last week's 59.79 points, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1] - The CVI has increased for eight consecutive weeks, totaling a rise of 29.19 points, surpassing three critical thresholds: the lower limit of the 40-point boundary, the 50-point boundary, and the upper limit of the 60-point boundary [1] - The local interbank interest rates in Hong Kong have significantly decreased since May, alleviating banks' funding pressure, leading to a more optimistic mortgage lending attitude among banks [1] Group 2 - Following the government's withdrawal of cooling measures in February last year, the transaction volume in Hong Kong's property market rebounded, with the CVI recovering from low levels [2] - The CVI had previously dropped into the 40 to 60-point range, indicating a lack of upward momentum in property prices, which faced downward pressure [2] - The recent interest rate cuts and the government's policy report in October have contributed to a steady increase in the CVI, which has now surpassed the 40 and 50-point thresholds, coinciding with a stabilization in property prices [2] Group 3 - The global economic and political environment has faced new challenges due to factors such as the trade war and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, impacting the CVI [3] - The CVI had fluctuated around the 50-point boundary for 13 weeks before sharply dropping to around 40 points, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - The latest data shows that the CCL (Centaline Property Index) has increased by 1.24% following the relaxation of stamp duty, while property prices in Hong Kong have cumulatively declined by 0.78% in the first half of the year [3]
张尧浠:关税风暴牵手降息周期、金价下半年宽幅调整待攀升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 00:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies and interest rate cycles on gold prices, predicting a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with potential upward movement towards $4,000 in early next year [8]. Market Performance - On July 8, international gold prices opened at $3,338.19 per ounce, reached a high of $3,345.53, and then fell to a low of $3,286.89, closing at $3,301.49, marking a daily decline of $36.7 or 1.1% [1]. - The daily trading range was $58.44, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have put pressure on gold prices, as market sentiment improved with expectations of trade agreements between the US and its partners [3][4]. - Despite some countries receiving temporary relief from tariffs, overall tax rates have increased, raising economic concerns [3][7]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with a projected deficit of nearly $2 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, which could impact the dollar's long-term stability [7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation for gold prices, with expectations of a decline to around $3,000 or $2,600 if key support levels are breached [10]. - Current trading is above the May moving average, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact unless this support is broken [10]. - The daily chart shows increased bearish momentum, with expectations of further declines towards the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average support [12]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a wide trading range between $3,000 and $3,400 in the second half of the year, with a potential bullish trend resuming in early next year [8]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the US wholesale sales data, which is anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250702
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].
十年国债ETF(511260)上一交易日净流入超5.0亿,市场关注降息周期下配置价值
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 02:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a "first rise and then weak fluctuation" trend since May, influenced by three phases: initial rise due to improved trade policies and economic outlook, pressure on long-term rates from Moody's downgrade and poor 20-year bond auction, and a return to fundamentals with geopolitical risk premiums rising [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to maintain high volatility with limited downward space due to term premium support, reflecting a significant fiscal deficit pressure and increasing U.S. debt burden projected to reach $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025 [1] - The 10-year Treasury ETF tracks the 10-year Treasury index, which reflects price changes in the long-term Treasury market, serving as an important reference for fixed income investments [1]
综合晨报:美国5月核心PCE同比涨2.7%,中国工企利润回落-20250630
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 00:45
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].
张尧浠:降息周期预将很快恢复、金价有望再度上探3500
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 00:17
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rebound and may reach $3,500 again, driven by a potential return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the international gold price opened at $3,323.82 per ounce, reached a high of $3,336.85, and closed at $3,332.01, with a daily fluctuation of $25.04 and a gain of $8.19, or 0.25% [1]. - The dollar index continued to decline, providing support for gold prices, despite initial downward pressure from easing geopolitical tensions following Trump's announcement of talks with Iran [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP annualized rate final value, and May durable goods orders, which are expected to have limited impact on gold prices [5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to exert downward pressure on the dollar and support gold prices [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has been supported by the 60-day moving average and an upward trend line, indicating potential for a bullish rebound [3][10]. - If gold prices break below the 5-month moving average support, it could lead to a significant correction, potentially dropping to around $2,500 [8]. - Current support levels to monitor include $3,325 and $3,311, with resistance at $3,347 and $3,360 [12].
国联民生证券:看好有色金属板块投资机会 推荐黄金、稀土及铜铝板块
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 06:08
随着以美联储为代表的海外发达经济开启降息周期,流动性充裕将对黄金形成利好;黄金具有抗通胀属 性,美国通胀预期升温背景下,黄金投资价值凸显,叠加关税不确定性仍存,增加黄金避险需求。另 外,全球地缘政治风险上升、大国博弈加剧,主要央行持续增持黄金储备等,都有望推动金价中枢进一 步上移。白银商品和金融属性共振,金银比存修复预期,银价具备更大向上弹性。 稀土供需格局边际改善,出口管制催化战略价值提升 "两新"政策驱动下,新能源汽车、家电等需求量有望增长,进而带来稀土永磁材料需求增加。人形机器 人落地加速,有望打开稀土永磁材料长期成长空间。国内稀土开采总量控制指标增速放缓,缅甸稀土矿 进口情况虽短期有所恢复,但雨季临近等因素导致后续进口情况仍不稳定,稀土供给端或难有增量。稀 土供需格局改善可期,稀土价格回升趋势有望延续。2025年4月,国家对中重稀土实施出口管制,有望 推动海外稀土价格上涨、国内稀土价格跟涨。 国联民生(601456)证券发布研报称,2025年一季度基金对有色金属板块配置比例环比提升1.07个百分 点至4.59%,铜、黄金和铝成为增配重点品种。多重因素催化金价上涨,白银有望迎来补涨;稀土供需格 局边际改 ...