9月18日港股科技ETF（513020）开盘维持震荡，尾盘开始下跌，收跌1.57%。 资料来源：wind 美联储在9月FOMC会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4-4.25%，并释放出10月极有可能继续降息的 信号。最新点阵图显示今年将有三次降息，部分委员因近期劳动力市场疲弱转鸽。且会议声明措辞与鲍 威尔杰等讲话高度一致，强调就业风险上行。鲍威尔将此次降息定位为"风险管理型降息"，历史经验表 明此类"保险型"降息通常连续执行。 由于香港的联系汇率制度及国际金融中心的地位，港股的流动性与美国的货币政策相关性较大。回顾历 史，从1964年以来港股与美股表现出了很强的联动性，恒生指数和标普500相关系数接近95%。而据广 发证券统计，从历史上看非衰退式降息（1995年、2020年、2008年）恒生指数震荡走强，而美联储衰退 式降息（2002年、2008年）之后，恒生指数则是下探三个月左右之后震荡上行。降息重启之后的12个 月，科技行业平均上涨88%。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 | 降息情形 | 重启降名 | 基本材料 | 12 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）在会后发布声明表示，美国当前经济活动已出现"放缓"，并首次明确 指出"就业增长已经减速"，同时承认美国通胀"有所上升且仍处于相对高位"。声明还强调，"经济前景 的不确定性仍然高企"，"委员会正在密切关注双重使命两端的风险，并认为就业方面的下行风险已经上 升"。 北京时间周四凌晨，美国联邦储备银行（简称"美联储"）在两天议息会议结束后宣布下调基准利率25个 基点，联邦基金目标利率区间从4.25%—4.5%下调到4.0%—4.25%。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首 次降息。分析师普遍认为，美联储年内仍有较大降息空间，而美联储重启降息周期，对全球经济和大类 资产价格都将产生较大影响。 美联储年内首次降息 对于美联储降息"靴子落地"，高盛经济研究团队发表研报指出，此次美联储会议释放明显信号，即美联 储已经开启新一轮降息周期。根据高盛的情景分析，基准情形下预期10月、12月将继续分别降息25个基 点，如果劳动力市场恶化超出预期，甚至可能出现50个基点的降息。而明年3月和6月美联储将季度性降 息，最终利率降至3.0%—3.25%。 全球资产影响正面 由于降息在市场普遍预期之中，结果发 ...

黄金方面： 凌晨美联储再次开启降息，降息25个基点，但短线黄金却迎来一波下跌，有买预期卖现实的味道，前期 支撑黄金上涨的逻辑基本到头，投资者可适当转换投资方向。从中长期来看，黄金依旧有着巨大的上涨 潜力，随着降息的开启，美元指数将不可避免的走弱，弱势美元是强势黄金的坚实基础。根据德银数 据，各国央行购金需求目前仍以2011年至2021年平均水平的两倍速度增长，主要由东亚地区推动，今年 再生黄金供应量低于预期水平约4%，也为金价上行提供了空间。智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，根据 历史经验，降息往往是对全球新的挑战，地缘风险和各种摩擦会增加，同时各国还会伴随着输入性通胀 发生，对黄金而言是巨大利好，黄金长期来看值得持有。 来源：智昇财论 日经225方面： 技术面：黄金日线收吊颈小阴线，阶段性顶部可能已经出现。1小时周期出现向上的虚破，短期方向基 本确定，但短周期结构上有完成的可能，日内可能先上后下，日内可关注上方3670美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 隔夜油价再次开启下跌模式，走弱的美元也未对油价形成有效支撑，市场甚至直接无视大幅下降的EIA 原油库存，毕竟短期的库存变化难以影响长期库存积压的趋势。美国至9月12日当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,970.00 | -20.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,756.00 | -10.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 555,005.00 | +8635.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 397,675.00 | +6551.00↑ | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening labor market and rising inflation, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year and one next year. The signals from the Fed are mixed. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated little and remained at a relatively high level. Most downstream and terminal enterprises maintain a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, with slightly warmer spot market transactions. Domestic inventory has increased, LME inventory has rebounded, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 269,100 yuan/ton, down 3,440 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin is down 360 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 34,390 dollars/ton, down 360 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 22,824 lots, down 183 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 897 lots, up 1,112 lots; LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, up 5 tons [3]. 现货市场 - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 6,914 tons, down 290 tons; SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,200 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,430 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan; Shanghai tin main contract basis is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 167.02 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars [3]. 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 175,710 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3]. 行业消息 - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and is expected to cut rates twice more this year. The Fed's September statement on the economic outlook has changed compared with the July meeting: it acknowledges the slowdown in employment growth, mentions a slight increase in the unemployment rate but still at a low level, deletes the statement that "labor market conditions remain robust", and judges that the downward risk of employment has increased; it believes that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut is not high, and employment downward has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point rate cut has not been widely supported [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening labor market and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to larger profit margins for smelters and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, the import loss has continued to expand, the inflow of imported zinc has decreased, and the export window is approaching to open. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity", the inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not large, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, the zinc price has rebounded, the downstream maintains on - demand procurement, the domestic social inventory has increased, and the spot premium remains low; the overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting the zinc price. Technically, with increasing volume and open interest while the price is falling, there is a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,943 US dollars/ton, down 41.5 US dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,818 lots, an increase of 13,547 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 12,728 lots, down 2 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 54,241 tons, an increase of 1,521 tons. The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons (weekly), an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 48,975 tons (daily), unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,790 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 24.36 US dollars/ton, down 16.97 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons (weekly), an increase of 15,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.18% (daily), down 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.18% (daily), down 0.29 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.63% (daily), an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.84% (daily), down 0.09 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and is expected to cut rates twice more this year. The Fed's September statement's description of the economic outlook has changed compared with the July meeting: it acknowledges the slowdown in employment growth, mentions a slight increase in the unemployment rate but still at a low level, deletes the statement that "the labor market conditions remain robust", and judges that the downward risk of employment has increased; it believes that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut is not high, and the downward employment has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point rate cut has not received wide support [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply, increasing nickel resource supply costs. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, production is stable with some increases and new capacity plans, driving a slight increase in refined nickel output. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production due to improved profits, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, with stable spot premiums and increasing domestic and LME inventories. Technically, with reduced positions, prices are adjusted, and trading is cautious, showing a wide - range oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 55,044 lots, down 3,785 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,890 lots, down 1,453 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, up 2,034 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,866 tons, down 275 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) and bonded - warehouse (warrant) prices are both 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,760 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.18 dollars/ton, down 0.55 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.4 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts this year. The September statement showed changes in the economic outlook compared to the July meeting: it recognized the slowdown in employment growth, mentioned a slight increase in the unemployment rate while still keeping it low, removed the statement that "labor - market conditions remain robust", and judged that the downward risk of employment has increased. It also thought that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut was not strong, and the downward employment trend has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management - type rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point cut did not receive wide support [2]

不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12875 | -60 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -110 | -15 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -18199 | -1400 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 132228 | 4478 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 90146 | -5119 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13850 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 545 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.2 | -0.02 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 38234.02 | ...