Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）在会后发布声明表示，美国当前经济活动已出现"放缓"，并首次明确 指出"就业增长已经减速"，同时承认美国通胀"有所上升且仍处于相对高位"。声明还强调，"经济前景 的不确定性仍然高企"，"委员会正在密切关注双重使命两端的风险，并认为就业方面的下行风险已经上 升"。 北京时间周四凌晨，美国联邦储备银行（简称"美联储"）在两天议息会议结束后宣布下调基准利率25个 基点，联邦基金目标利率区间从4.25%—4.5%下调到4.0%—4.25%。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首 次降息。分析师普遍认为，美联储年内仍有较大降息空间，而美联储重启降息周期，对全球经济和大类 资产价格都将产生较大影响。 美联储年内首次降息 对于美联储降息"靴子落地"，高盛经济研究团队发表研报指出，此次美联储会议释放明显信号，即美联 储已经开启新一轮降息周期。根据高盛的情景分析，基准情形下预期10月、12月将继续分别降息25个基 点，如果劳动力市场恶化超出预期，甚至可能出现50个基点的降息。而明年3月和6月美联储将季度性降 息，最终利率降至3.0%—3.25%。 全球资产影响正面 由于降息在市场普遍预期之中，结果发 ...

黄金方面： 凌晨美联储再次开启降息，降息25个基点，但短线黄金却迎来一波下跌，有买预期卖现实的味道，前期 支撑黄金上涨的逻辑基本到头，投资者可适当转换投资方向。从中长期来看，黄金依旧有着巨大的上涨 潜力，随着降息的开启，美元指数将不可避免的走弱，弱势美元是强势黄金的坚实基础。根据德银数 据，各国央行购金需求目前仍以2011年至2021年平均水平的两倍速度增长，主要由东亚地区推动，今年 再生黄金供应量低于预期水平约4%，也为金价上行提供了空间。智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，根据 历史经验，降息往往是对全球新的挑战，地缘风险和各种摩擦会增加，同时各国还会伴随着输入性通胀 发生，对黄金而言是巨大利好，黄金长期来看值得持有。 来源：智昇财论 日经225方面： 技术面：黄金日线收吊颈小阴线，阶段性顶部可能已经出现。1小时周期出现向上的虚破，短期方向基 本确定，但短周期结构上有完成的可能，日内可能先上后下，日内可关注上方3670美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 隔夜油价再次开启下跌模式，走弱的美元也未对油价形成有效支撑，市场甚至直接无视大幅下降的EIA 原油库存，毕竟短期的库存变化难以影响长期库存积压的趋势。美国至9月12日当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,970.00 | -20.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,756.00 | -10.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 555,005.00 | +8635.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 397,675.00 | +6551.00↑ | | ...

现货升水维持200元/吨，国内库存增加。LME库存回升，且现货升水大幅下调。技术面，持仓增量价格下 跌，多空交投分歧，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪锡产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 269100 | -3440 10月-11月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -360 | -10 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 34390 | -360 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 22824 | -183 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -897 | 1112 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2645 | 0 ...

沪锌产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22035 | -245 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2943 | -41.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 229818 | 13547 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -12728 | -2 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 54241 | 1521 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 94649 | 7617 LME库存(日,吨) | 48975 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22010 | -150 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21790 | -230 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 95 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 24.36 | -16.97 | | | 昆明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply, increasing nickel resource supply costs. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, production is stable with some increases and new capacity plans, driving a slight increase in refined nickel output. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production due to improved profits, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, with stable spot premiums and increasing domestic and LME inventories. Technically, with reduced positions, prices are adjusted, and trading is cautious, showing a wide - range oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 55,044 lots, down 3,785 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,890 lots, down 1,453 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, up 2,034 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,866 tons, down 275 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) and bonded - warehouse (warrant) prices are both 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,760 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.18 dollars/ton, down 0.55 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.4 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts this year. The September statement showed changes in the economic outlook compared to the July meeting: it recognized the slowdown in employment growth, mentioned a slight increase in the unemployment rate while still keeping it low, removed the statement that "labor - market conditions remain robust", and judged that the downward risk of employment has increased. It also thought that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut was not strong, and the downward employment trend has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management - type rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point cut did not receive wide support [2]

不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12875 | -60 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -110 | -15 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -18199 | -1400 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 132228 | 4478 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 90146 | -5119 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13850 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 545 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.2 | -0.02 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 38234.02 | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) during the September 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the first rate cut in nine months[3] - The median federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 were adjusted down to 3.6% (-30 bps), 3.4% (-20 bps), and 3.1% (-30 bps) respectively[3] - The decision to cut rates received 11 votes in favor, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a 50 bps cut[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were revised upward to 1.6% (+20 bps), 1.8% (+20 bps), and 1.9% (+10 bps) respectively[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 4.4% (-10 bps) and 4.3% (-10 bps) respectively[3] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2026 was raised to 2.6% (+20 bps), with the core PCE also adjusted to the same figure[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Insights - Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, while the S&P 500 index declined during Powell's remarks[2] - Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" decision rather than a response to poor economic conditions, highlighting the need to address employment market risks[3] - The divergence in the dot plot indicates a split among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some expecting up to 75 bps in total cuts this year, while others anticipate only 0-50 bps[3] Group 4: Policy Considerations - The Fed's dovish stance was described as restrained, with signals suggesting a more hawkish outlook than anticipated, particularly regarding employment and inflation forecasts[5] - The current financial conditions in the U.S. are described as relatively loose, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts in the near term[5] - Investors are advised to be cautious about future rate cut expectations and to be aware of potential risks related to employment and inflation forecasts[5]