分享一篇文章。 中金点睛 中金：AH溢价能有多低？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

中金认为，AH溢价主要源于两地投资者结构、市场机制的差异以及缺乏自由套利机制。125%是当前AH溢价的"隐形底"，这主要是因为内地个人 投资者通过港股通投资H股需要缴纳20%的红利税，当溢价收窄至此水平，港股的红利优势对这部分投资者而言便已消失。这一水平可作为判断 市场冷热和板块轮动的辅助择时信号。 这一背景下，如何分析AH溢价的定价逻辑？未来的合理中枢在什么位置？能否作为择时的可靠指标，换言之现在该选A股还是港股？对于上述问 题，我们将在本文中进行重点探讨。 受益于港股近半年多的强势表现和南向资金的持续涌入，AH溢价大幅回落，个别公司甚至出现了A股较港股大幅折价的"罕见"情形。近期，AH溢 价从4月初高点144%快速回落至7月底的123%，创2020年以来新低，当前仍处于125%的低位；宁德时代、恒瑞医药等A to H上市后表现优异，当 前分别交易31%和15%的倒挂。 AH溢价从何而来？投资者结构与市场机制差异所致，根本原因是存在套利壁垒 AH溢价是两地投资者结构与市场机制差异所导致的必然结果。同股同权的一家公司在不同市场的分子端（盈利基本面）一致，价差主要源于分母 端（定价逻辑）的分化。港股市场中海外投 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，受益于港股近半年多的强势表现和南向资金的持续涌入， AH溢价大幅回落，个别公司甚至出现了A股较港股大幅折价的"罕见"情形。近期，AH溢价从4月初高点 144%快速回落至7月底的123%，创2020年以来新低，当前仍处于125%的低位。这一背景下，如何分析 AH溢价的定价逻辑？未来的合理中枢在什么位置？能否作为择时的可靠指标，换言之现在该选A股还 是港股？ 中金主要观点如下： AH溢价从何而来?投资者结构与市场机制差异所致，根本原因是存在套利壁垒 AH溢价是两地投资者结构与市场机制差异所导致的必然结果。同股同权的一家公司在不同市场的分子 端(盈利基本面)一致，价差主要源于分母端(定价逻辑)的分化。港股市场中海外投资者占比较高，因此 会要求额外的风险补偿，加上不同投资者对同一公司合理定价存在不同的看法，也属正常。 此外，两地市场机制的差异，也会进一步强化AH价差的存在：1)流动性：A股市场散户持股占比达到 54%，成交活跃度显著高于港股，截至2025年6月30日，港股年化换手率仅105%，是A股373%的不到三 分之一;2)再融资制度：港股"闪电配售"机制灵活，提前授权情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in the AH premium, which has dropped from a peak of 144% in early April to 125% currently, marking a new low since 2020. This decline is attributed to the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, raising questions about the pricing logic of the AH premium and its future trends [2][20]. Group 1: AH Premium Dynamics - The AH premium arises from differences in investor structure and market mechanisms between the two markets, with the fundamental reason being the existence of arbitrage barriers [3][4]. - The premium is influenced by various factors, including liquidity differences, refinancing systems, trading mechanisms, dividend taxes, and currency exchange rates [4][20]. - Historical data shows that the AH premium has fluctuated significantly across different phases, with the current low being influenced by the performance of the financial sector and the overall market environment [8][9][13]. Group 2: Recent Changes in AH Premium - The recent rapid decline in the AH premium is attributed to three main factors: accelerated inflow of southbound funds, increased attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks, and a wave of quality companies listing in Hong Kong [20][25][29]. - Southbound funds have seen a significant increase, with inflows reaching 9,008 billion HKD this year, surpassing the total for the previous year [20][21]. - The structure of listed companies in Hong Kong has improved due to a surge in IPOs, with many high-quality firms transitioning from A to H shares, enhancing the market's appeal [29][32]. Group 3: Future Outlook of AH Premium - The long-term trend suggests a potential convergence of the AH premium, driven by the continuous attractiveness of dividend stocks and the increasing proportion of southbound funds [37][40]. - However, the premium is unlikely to be completely eliminated due to persistent differences in market mechanisms and investor structures [41][42]. - The current level of 125% is viewed as an "invisible bottom" for the AH premium, serving as a potential timing signal for market movements [42][47].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of the semi-annual report on bank wealth management, highlighting hidden asset clues and industry trends [2][13]. Group 1: Market Scale and Growth - The total scale of wealth management products in the market reached 30.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [18]. - The scale of bank wealth management products decreased by 24.04%, while wealth management companies saw a growth of 12.98%, reaching 27.48 trillion [18]. - The increase in wealth management scale is attributed to the downward adjustment of deposit rates and the ongoing trend of funds shifting from banks to non-bank financial institutions [18]. Group 2: Product Duration and Structure - Products with a duration of over one year now account for 72.86% of the total, an increase of 5.71% since the beginning of the year [21]. - The scale of cash management products has decreased by 4.38%, indicating pressure on money market funds [21]. Group 3: Product Types and Investment Focus - Fixed-income products dominate the wealth management market, comprising 97.20% of the total products [24]. - The proportion of equity investments in wealth management products has decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% over the last quarter [27]. Group 4: Investment Returns - The average annualized return of wealth management products in the first half of 2025 was 2.12%, a decrease of over 50 basis points compared to the previous year [31]. - Wealth management products generated a total return of 3.896 billion for investors in the first half of 2025 [31]. Group 5: Distribution Channels - Approximately two-thirds of wealth management product sales are through the parent bank, while one-third comes from external channels [35]. - Some wealth management subsidiaries have seen their external sales exceed 40%, indicating a shift in distribution strategy [35]. Group 6: Personal Pension Business - The balance of wealth management products related to personal pensions reached 15.1 billion, with a growth rate of 64% [39].

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity between high expectations for foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market and the weak reality of actual investments [2][3] - There is a belief that foreign capital may rebalance from U.S. assets to China due to concerns over the safety of dollar-denominated assets, but actual inflows have not materialized significantly [2][3] - Data from EPFR indicates that the allocation of active foreign capital to China has decreased, contradicting the optimistic views held by some investors [3][5] Group 2 - Investor sentiment has shown subtle changes, with a shift from a strong bullish outlook to a more cautious stance, particularly after the recent performance of major internet companies [11][13] - Some investors are now looking at opportunities in other markets, indicating a reversal from previous trends where capital was moving into China from other regions [14] - The focus has shifted towards structural opportunities and sector rotations rather than a broad market optimism, reflecting concerns about the rapid changes in market dynamics [15][16] Group 3 - Key areas of interest for foreign investors include dividend stocks, the impact of "anti-involution" policies, and the competitive landscape in the food delivery sector [15][16] - Concerns about economic growth and policy effectiveness are prevalent, with investors questioning the government's urgency in implementing supportive measures [16] - The premium of A-shares over H-shares has become a significant topic, with investors curious about the sustainability of this trend and its implications for market performance [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) consists of 50 constituent stocks with notable investment scarcity, and foreign investors hold strong pricing power, influencing the AH premium. The index is affected by factors such as U.S. bond yields, credit spreads, and market liquidity [9][11]. - The index shows different correlations and trends with various factors, including a negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, a similar trend with Moutai Basket and Ning Portfolio, a closer alignment with A - share healthcare indices, and better performance when credit spreads widen [101][114][126]. - The trading behavior of foreign capital impacts the AH premium from aspects such as substitution, risk appetite, sentiment, and market liquidity [179][188]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction - **Three Major Healthcare Sector Indices in Hong Kong Stocks**: There are three major industry indices in the Hong Kong healthcare sector: the HS Healthcare Index (68 constituents), the HS Biotechnology Index (50 constituents), and the HS Innovative Drug Index (37 constituents). The first two have high long - term correlation, and the Biotech Index can more effectively track the leading Hong Kong healthcare stocks due to its quarterly rebalancing [21][25]. - **Focus on Drugs and Medical Devices**: Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks have scarcity as many innovative biotech companies are listed there before the STAR Market. The Biotech Index focuses on innovative drugs, medical devices, and CXO, different from A - share listed pharmaceutical enterprises [26][33]. - **The Low Proportion of AH Shares**: By April 2025, 13 AH shares in the index accounted for 17% - 20% of the index weight. Except for WuXi AppTec, the AH premium of other AH shares is generally around 1.5 - 2.0, and it may climb above 2.0 during market declines [38][42]. 3.2 Pricing Power - **Capital Structure**: Foreign and Hong Kong capital hold a dominant position (61% - 80%) in the Hang Seng Biotech Index. Since 2023, foreign capital has been reducing holdings, leading to a passive increase in the proportion of Southbound Stock Connect. By the end of March 2025, domestic and Chinese - funded institutions' investment proportion rose to 30% [51][55]. - **Proportion of Foreign Capital's Holdings**: Foreign capital holds controlling stakes in most individual stocks in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, mainly from Europe and the United States. In 2024, U.S. - based foreign capital rapidly reduced its holdings, and some equity was transferred to the Qatar Investment Authority [60][64]. - **Belonging of Pricing Power**: From 2021 to 2025, foreign institutional investors had strong pricing power over pharmaceutical stocks, with more than half of the individual stocks showing a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 between their stock prices and the proportion of foreign holdings. Based on foreign ownership fluctuations for market timing has a long - term alpha effect [75][86]. 3.3 Sector Rotations - **The Index is Negatively Correltated with the U.S. Treasury Yield**: The HS Biotech Index has a significant negative correlation (- 0.84) with the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield. Since 2024, its correlation with long - term Chinese bond yields has strengthened [95][101]. - **The Index Moves in Tandem with Moutai Basket and Ning Portofolio**: The Hang Seng Biotech Index, Moutai Basket, and Ning Portfolio are all dominated by foreign capital, tied to U.S. Treasury yields. They peaked simultaneously in 2021, with different maximum drawdowns [108][114]. - **The Index Tracks A - Share Healthcare Indices More Closely**: The HS Biotech Index shows stronger alignment with A - share healthcare indices and has diverged from U.S. biotech indices since 2024. After 2024, its trajectory is mainly driven by China's economic expectations [120][126]. - **The Index Paradoxically Outperforms When Credit Spreads Widen**: Credit spreads typically expand during macro - economic deterioration or industry profit headwinds. Widening spreads imply a higher probability of interest - rate cuts, boosting biotech valuations [133][139]. - **Hang Seng Sector Rotation Signals**: When the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield declines, the elasticity of Hong Kong's major broad - based indices is Biotech > HSTECH > HSI; in the interest - rate hike cycle, HSI and HSTECH have stronger excess returns. When the 10 - year CGB yield rises, it is suitable to overweight the Biotech Index [147][158]. 3.4 AH Premium - **AH Premium Rate: Negatively Correlated with the Index**: The average AH premium of 13 AH shares from September 2022 to March 2025 has a high negative correlation (- 0.90) with the index, which may be due to the high elasticity of biopharmaceutical stocks and the significant influence of foreign capital transactions [165][166]. - **AH Premium: The Trading Behavior of Foreign Capital**: The trading behavior of foreign capital affects the AH premium from four aspects: substitution (long - term deviation in AH premium after the launch of the Mainland - Hong Kong Stock Connect), risk appetite (higher U.S. Treasury yields lead to a higher AH premium), sentiment (negative correlation between warrant PCR ratio and AH premium), and market liquidity (lower Hong Kong stock liquidity leads to a higher AH premium) [174][179][188].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported that during the week of July 21 to July 27, a total of 9 companies submitted applications, 1 company passed the hearing, and 1 new stock was listed. Company Summaries - **GoerTek Inc.**: Submitted an application on July 21, focusing on smart sensing interaction solutions, particularly acoustic sensors. It is the fifth largest global provider in this sector with a market share of 2.2% and the largest in China. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 31.21 billion, RMB 30.01 billion, and RMB 45.36 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 3.26 billion, RMB 2.89 billion, and RMB 3.09 billion [2][2]. - **Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 22, specializing in silicon carbide epitaxial wafers. It holds the top position in China's market with a revenue market share of 30.6%. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 4.37 billion, RMB 11.71 billion, and RMB 5.2 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 281.4 million, RMB 95.88 million, and a loss of RMB 500 million [3][3]. - **Daheng Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 22, known for its folding bicycles, holding a market share of 26.3% in volume and 36.5% in revenue in China. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 2.54 billion, RMB 3 billion, and RMB 4.51 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 314.34 million, RMB 34.85 million, and RMB 52.29 million [4][4]. - **Juzhi Technology Development Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 23, focusing on baby monitoring products. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.62 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 34.82 million, RMB 63.36 million, and RMB 94.69 million [5][6]. - **Jiangsu Zhonghui Yuantong Biotechnology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 24, specializing in vaccines. Revenue for 2023 to 2025 was approximately RMB 52.17 million, RMB 260 million, and RMB 410,000 respectively, with net losses of RMB 425 million, RMB 259 million, and RMB 87.32 million [7][7]. - **Fujian Lemo IoT Technology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 25, a leader in smart massage services in mainland China, with a market share of 33.9% to 42.9% from 2022 to 2024. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 3.30 billion, RMB 5.87 billion, and RMB 7.98 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 6.48 million, RMB 87.34 million, and RMB 85.81 million [8][8]. - **Anhui Jinyan High Clay New Materials Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 25, specializing in kaolin materials with a market share of 19.1%. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 2.67 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 24.42 million, RMB 43.61 million, and RMB 52.60 million [9][9]. - **Shandong Shengruan Technology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 26, providing digital solutions for energy and manufacturing sectors. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 3.91 billion, RMB 5.02 billion, and RMB 5.25 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 37.60 million, RMB 53.70 million, and RMB 59.30 million [10][10]. - **AIWB Inc.**: Submitted an application on July 25, focusing on smart building solutions in Texas. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately USD 103 million, USD 121 million, and USD 105 million respectively, with net losses of USD 347,000, USD 620,000, and USD 531,000 [11][11]. Company Hearing and IPO - **Jiangsu Zhonghui Yuantong Biotechnology Co., Ltd.**: Passed the hearing on July 27, focusing on innovative vaccines with two core products. Revenue for 2023 to 2025 was approximately RMB 52.17 million, RMB 260 million, and RMB 410,000 respectively, with net losses of RMB 425 million, RMB 259 million, and RMB 87.32 million [12][12]. - **Vili Zhibo-B (09887.HK)**: Launched an IPO from July 17 to July 22, with a subscription rate of 3494.78 times in the public offering. The stock began trading on July 25 at HKD 67.10, a 91.71% increase [13][14].

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 201.84 billion HKD on July 25, bringing the total net purchase for the year to 8200.28 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total of 8079 billion HKD and the combined total from 2022 to 2023 [1][3] - This marks the 25th consecutive month of net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds, with expectations that the annual net inflow could exceed 1 trillion HKD [3] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 26.56% this year, leading global major stock indices, driven by ample liquidity and structural industry rotation [3] Group 2 - The proportion of southbound funds in the total trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has increased to approximately 35%, indicating a significant role in market activity [3] - Active public funds have increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks from 25.8% at the end of last year to 32.5%, with an increase in allocation of 100 to 120 billion HKD this year [3] - The continuous inflow of southbound funds has positively impacted the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, with the AH premium index dropping to 123.4 points, the lowest since June 2020, reflecting a significant liquidity gap between Hong Kong and A-shares [4]

Group 1 - Public funds increased their holdings in the banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors by 1.6%, 1.6%, and 0.8% respectively in Q2 2025, while reducing their positions in food and beverage, automotive, and power equipment sectors by 2.1% and 0.9% [1] - The defense sector also saw increased interest from public funds due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties, ranking fourth in terms of increased holdings [1] - The holdings in the STAR Market by public funds rose by 0.4%, reaching a historical high of 14.8% [1] Group 2 - New fund issuance remained sluggish in Q2 2025, with a total of 59.9 billion units of actively managed equity and mixed funds issued, a year-on-year increase of 128%, but down 73% from the peak levels of 2020-2021 [4] - Active management funds have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index since Q3, indicating potential for increased fund inflows as market performance improves [4] - Positive catalysts in high-holding sectors may lead to increased new fund issuance, providing additional liquidity and creating a positive feedback loop [4] Group 3 - Net inflows from southbound funds reached 273.9 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with the financial sector seeing the largest inflow [5] - Public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks increased by 1.5%, reaching 18.8%, a rise of 6.6 percentage points from Q4 2024 [5] - The AH premium significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to liquidity differences between A-shares and H-shares, with expectations of maintaining mid-term low levels [5] Group 4 - The "national team" is estimated to have increased its holdings in A-share ETFs by over 200 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with 65% directed towards CSI 300 index ETFs [6] - The "national team's" actions reflect a commitment to stabilizing the capital market and providing downside protection for A-shares [6] - In extreme scenarios, the "national team" has the capacity to further increase holdings to stabilize the market [7]