围绕氢能的发展前景，国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所可再生能源与新能源研究中心高级工程师郑雅 楠表示，氢能正处于"精细化"发展阶段，需重点聚焦"脱碳刚需"和"场景适配"两个方向。在脱碳刚需 上，钢铁行业的氢冶炼、远距离航运及重卡运输是氢能发挥替代优势的重点领域。场景适配方面，氢能 可替代化石燃料生产氨、甲醇等基础化工原料，契合欧美低碳原料趋势，在西部地区可解决长时储能问 题。 厦门大学中国能源政策研究院和自然资源保护协会第17期"电力低碳保供研讨会"近期举行。厦门大学中 国能源政策研究院院长林伯强表示，"十五五"时期是我国实现"双碳"目标的关键阶段，2030年也是碳达 峰的目标节点。2024年清洁能源占比约18%，即使保持每年10%的增速，也只能满足约2个百分点的新 增能源需求。2024年整体能源需求增长约4.4%，这意味着仅靠清洁能源扩张远远不够，未来必须在供 给端和需求端同时发力。 "风电、光伏仍必须保持更大幅度增长，而这在现有的市场环境下存在一些困难。"林伯强呼吁，政府应 加强市场监管与政策引导，在保障能源安全的同时，坚定不移推动清洁能源转型，确保2030年达峰目标 如期实现。 进入新的发展阶段，电力行业 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Commodity Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global commodity market outlook for 2026, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks, changes in global trade order, and the influence of emerging economies and AI development on commodity demand [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Risks and Supply Uncertainty** Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China trade frictions, are increasing supply risks in the commodity market, particularly during the transition between old and new orders [2][5]. 2. **Demand Restructuring** The demand for commodities is being reshaped by the industrialization of emerging economies and advancements in AI. Investments in AI and energy transition are driving demand for metals like copper and natural gas [1][2][7]. 3. **Strategic Stockpiling** Non-OECD countries are enhancing their strategic stockpiling to absorb excess oil supply, which is expected to have a profound impact on the commodity market [1][8]. 4. **Global Monetary System Changes** Changes in the global monetary system, including increased central bank gold purchases, are affecting commodity markets. This trend may lead to liquidity tightening and a shift in commodity flows towards the US [1][10]. 5. **Oil Market Dynamics** The oil market is expected to face challenges such as limited OPEC production increases, risks of US shale oil production declines, and low inventory levels due to emerging market stockpiling [2][11][12]. 6. **Copper Price Outlook** Copper prices are projected to rise in the coming years due to demand growth outpacing supply growth, driven by energy transition and electrification investments [2][13]. 7. **Black Metal Market Sentiment** A bearish outlook is held for black metals like iron ore, with expectations of declining prices due to increased supply pressure from new mines and a general demand downturn [2][15]. 8. **Agricultural Market Trends** Agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize at cyclical lows, with specific impacts from US-China trade tensions affecting soybean prices and short-term pressures on pork prices [2][16]. 9. **Gold Investment Opportunities** Gold is viewed positively as an investment due to central bank purchases and ETF inflows, with expectations of continued demand in a de-globalizing environment [2][17]. Other Important Insights - The transition to a new global order is complicating supply chains and increasing uncertainty, which may lead to higher production costs and volatility in futures markets [5][6]. - The interplay between supply-side adjustments and demand recovery narratives will shape the commodity market dynamics in 2026 [4][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and challenges in the global commodity market leading into 2026.

国家能源局最新统计数据显示，前三季度新增可再生能源3.10亿千瓦，太阳能独占2.40亿千瓦。但是，掌声未 落，警报已响。随着《关于进一步深化电力体制改革加快构建新型电力系统的指导意见》（以下简称"136号 文"）政策的落地，"消纳难"与"收益低"两大难题摆在了光伏人面前。当发电的速度超过了电网消纳的速度， 当投资的回报被政策与市场双重挤压，我们靠什么继续前行？《中国能源报》记者近日在山东省规模最大的 工商业储能项目——华勤绿能30MW/60MWh储能项目找到了解决答案。 光伏面临消纳难与收益低难题 我国可再生能源的扩张势头正以前所未有的速度刷新纪录。国家能源局最新数据显示，我国可再生能源装机 总量已逼近22亿千瓦大关，其中风电与太阳能发电合计装机更是突破17亿千瓦。仅今年前三季度，全国新增 可再生能源装机就高达3.10亿千瓦，同比激增47.7%，占全部新增装机的84.4%，而太阳能发电以2.40亿千瓦的 新增量成为绝对主力。 然而，在这片繁荣景象之下，行业正面临严峻的现实考验。一方面，装机规模的快速发展给电网的消纳能力 带来巨大压力；另一方面，政策调整与市场变化正不断压缩项目的盈利空间。如何破解"增量"与"增 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's lithium battery exports are experiencing significant growth due to the increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage solutions, despite facing some fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 due to lithium carbonate price volatility [1][8]. Industry Overview - Lithium batteries, which utilize lithium metal or lithium alloys as electrode materials, are categorized into lithium metal batteries and lithium-ion batteries [3][4]. - The lithium battery industry has evolved significantly since the first lithium battery was created in the 1970s, with major advancements in materials and safety features over the decades [4]. Export Growth - China's lithium battery exports have shown a consistent upward trend from 2019 to 2022, with a notable increase in 2024, reaching 3.914 billion units, a year-on-year growth of 8.09% [1][8]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the export volume reached 3.399 billion units, marking a 19.14% increase year-on-year [1][8]. Market Demand - The global electrification process and expanding energy storage applications are expected to sustain strong demand for China's cost-effective lithium battery products in overseas markets [1][8]. - The export value of China's lithium batteries surged from $6.78 billion in 2016 to $61.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.63% [10]. Key Export Markets - Vietnam emerged as the largest market for China's lithium battery exports in the first three quarters of 2025, with an export volume of 81.661 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.04% [10]. - The United States and Germany are also significant markets, with Germany surpassing the U.S. as the top export destination in 2025 [12]. Industry Policies - China's lithium battery industry is supported by a robust policy framework aimed at fostering innovation and market application, including the establishment of national standards and financial incentives [6]. Company Landscape - Major companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, which are actively expanding their international presence through overseas factories and joint ventures [7][13]. - CATL reported a revenue of 131.6 billion yuan from its power battery systems in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.87% [13]. Future Trends - The industry is shifting towards localized value chains, with companies establishing production and R&D facilities abroad to better meet local market demands and regulatory standards [16]. - There is a growing focus on technological innovation, particularly in solid-state and sodium-ion batteries, to enhance performance metrics such as energy density and charging speed [17].

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 今年资本市场杀出一匹黑马，有色金属板块全年涨幅冲到行业第一，贵金属更是涨得让人眼花缭乱。 国际金价年内一度涨了不少，白银更夸张，单周就涨了15%，全年下来快翻倍了。 今天就来好好聊聊这波行情是怎么起来的，还有黄金市场现在吵得不可开交是咋回事。 说到有色金属这波上涨，金融属性的推动得先提一提。 美联储那边降息的风声从年初就没停过，到了年底预期越来越浓。 美元一弱，以美元计价的这些金属自然就水涨船高。 11月底还有个大消息，说鲍威尔可能要辞职，这一下市场直接炸了锅，都觉得2026年货币政策要更宽 松，贵金属当天就直线拉涨。 光有钱推动还不够，需求端也得跟上趟。 全球经济今年有点"再通胀"的意思，虽然复苏不算猛，但好歹是在往上走。 铜、铝这些工业金属的需求也就有了基础。 更关键的是，能源转型和人工智能这两个风口正好撞上了，电动汽车、光伏风电抢着要铜铝，AI数据 中心耗电厉害又得建电网，上游原材料想不火都难。 供给端这边更是把行情推上了高潮。 全球铜矿现在是老矿产量降，新矿又没几个能投产的，生产还老出问题。 国内的铝产能卡得更死，"双碳"政策把天花板钉得死死的。 这种供需失衡的情况，只要 ...

Summary of Glencore's 2025 Capital Markets Day Company Overview - **Company**: Glencore (OTCPK:GLCN.F) - **Event**: 2025 Capital Markets Day - **Date**: December 03, 2025 Key Industry and Company Insights Strategic Vision and Business Model - Glencore is positioned as a diversified miner focusing on critical minerals and energy needs, with a strong marketing business [4][5] - The company aims to grow its copper production from approximately 850,000 tonnes to a target of 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, leveraging its world-class copper assets [6][33] - The coal business is maintained to support current energy needs and infrastructure development, emphasizing the importance of high-quality coal for the foreseeable future [7][9] Market Dynamics and Growth Opportunities - The energy transition is expected to require significant investment, estimated at $300 trillion, which will drive demand for critical minerals like copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium [13][15] - A projected copper supply gap of 27 million tonnes by 2050 highlights the necessity for increased copper production [16] - Glencore is confident in its ability to sanction new copper projects due to improving market fundamentals and pricing trends since mid-2024 [19][25] Operational Changes and Efficiency - The company has undergone structural changes to enhance accountability and operational efficiency, including the sale of 35 assets since 2021, generating approximately $6.5 billion [22][24] - A $1 billion cost-saving initiative is underway, with over $500 million already implemented [24] - The focus on operational excellence and risk mitigation is emphasized to ensure reliable delivery of production targets [20][26] Production Outlook - Glencore anticipates a return to a million tonnes of annual copper production by the end of 2026, with a gradual increase thereafter [28][52] - The company plans to restart the Alumbrera project in Argentina, which is expected to contribute significantly to copper production [28] - The Antapaccay district in Peru is identified as a key growth area, with plans for low-grade stockpile leaching to extend production through 2045 [29] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Over the past five years, Glencore has returned more than $25 billion to shareholders, demonstrating a commitment to long-term value creation [12] - The marketing business is highlighted as a high return on equity (ROE) segment, supporting the overall financial health of the company [10] Additional Important Insights - The company acknowledges past criticisms regarding production delivery and emphasizes the changes made to address these concerns [11][12] - Glencore's diversified geographical presence across key mining regions (Peru, Chile, Argentina, DRC) provides risk mitigation and enhances project returns [25][26] - The focus on safety and operational discipline is underscored, with improvements in safety performance metrics compared to industry averages [49][50] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during Glencore's 2025 Capital Markets Day, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market opportunities, operational efficiencies, and commitment to shareholder value.

分析指出，为适应风电、光伏发电量增长，以及交通、工业电气化带来的用电需求上升，全球电网亟需 大规模扩建与升级。预计2025年电网基础设施投资较上年增长约16%，主要推动因素包括：可再生能源 部署加速、交通电气化推高电力需求、数据中心建设热潮、工业发展以及对电网安全性与韧性的更高要 求。 电网投资不仅为能源系统提供稳定性，也将带来显著经济效益。据估算，到2050年，现代化可靠电网可 为全球经济带来1.1万亿至3.2万亿美元收益，具体体现在创造大量就业、降低能源损耗、提升供电安全 性并促进低成本可再生能源并网。反之，若电网投资滞后，将严重拖慢能源转型进程。目前全球已出现 大量风光电站等待并网，导致项目积压与资源浪费。同时，若无电网升级，日益增长的电动汽车、储能 系统及数字产业可能对现有电网容量造成压力。 随着2025年超过4700亿美元资金的注入，全球电网正进入加速发展阶段。这不仅是一项技术工程，更是 全球迈向安全、清洁、可靠能源体系的基石。现代化电网已成为经济稳定、产业发展和气候未来的关键 支撑，2025年也将成为全球对能源基础设施投入力度空前的一年。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 波黑媒体biznisinfo 12月1 ...

瑞银预计2025年和2026年全球铜需求将分别增长2.8%。推动增长的因素包括电动汽车的普及、对可再 生能源的投资、电网扩建以及数据中心的蓬勃发展。电动汽车、高压输电线路、风能和太阳能发电厂以 及数据基础设施都需要大量铜，因此铜被视为脱碳的关键工业材料。 嘉能可首席执行官曾指出，到2050年，全球铜供应每年需要增加100万吨才能满足预期需求，因此嘉能 可的增产有助于填补这一巨大缺口。 嘉能可的大部分新增产量要到2026年后才开始逐步释放，特别是像Alumbrera这样的重启项目，预计 2026年底才能首次生产。这意味着在未来一到两年内，市场仍将主要面对当前的供应紧张局面。 嘉能可公司表示，未来十年，该公司计划到2035年将铜年产量提高至约160万吨，以扭转其铜产量下滑 的局面。嘉能可此举正值全球矿商纷纷加紧生产铜材之际，但该公司自身的铜产量却将连续第四年下 滑。该公司今年的铜产量预计将比2018年减少约40%。嘉能可还再次明确了一项计划，即到2028年将铜 产量提高至100万吨，并表示将重启Alumbrera矿作为这一计划的一部分。 目前，嘉能可预计2025年的铜产量指引范围在85万至87.5万吨之间。虽然近 ...

公告显示，阿特斯拟与控股股东CSIQ新设合资公司M和合资公司N，由阿特斯持有24.9%股份，CSIQ持有75.1%股份。其中，合资公司M将从事美国的光伏 业务，包括运营美国的光伏电池片和光伏组件工厂；合资公司N将从事美国的储能业务，包括运营美国的磷酸铁锂储能电芯、电池包以及直流储能系统等产 品的制造工厂。 同时，阿特斯拟在美国以外但供应美国的制造工厂，包括已建成的海外光伏切片工厂THX1、建设中的海外储能工厂SSTH和海外电池工厂GNCM。以上工厂 通过股权转让的方式重组为CSIQ占75.1%，CSI占24.9%。阿特斯表示，通过上述安排，其可获得一次性股权转让对价，且可以享有后续美国业务24.9%的持 续股权收益及回收前期投资。 11月30日，全球光伏组件与大型储能头部企业阿特斯(CSI，688472.SH)发布公告称，为实现在美国市场业务长期参与，保障企业正常经营，降低经营风险， 拟联合控股股东Canadian Solar Inc（以下简称"CSIQ"）设立合资企业重组美国市场业务，运营当地光伏电池/组件与储能业务，以及转让海外储能工厂、光 伏切片工厂以及电池工厂，阿特斯将保留部分持续收益权。 阿特斯表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of an energy powerhouse is essential for coordinating domestic and international needs, development and security, and advancing Chinese-style modernization [2] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - The global energy supply and demand landscape is undergoing significant adjustments due to geopolitical factors, climate change, and energy transition, making energy issues a priority for national security [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's energy consumption is expected to continue its rigid growth, with an anticipated annual increase of approximately 600 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - China must shift from a high-energy consumption and high-emission model to a green and low-carbon development path, given its population of over 1.4 billion [2] Group 2: Energy Industry Development - China has established itself as the world's largest energy producer, maintaining an energy self-sufficiency rate of over 80% [3] - The country has built the largest and most complete new energy industrial chain globally, providing over 80% of the world's photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment [3] - Significant breakthroughs have been made in energy technologies and equipment, particularly in hydropower, advanced nuclear power, heavy-duty gas turbines, and smart grids [3] Group 3: Systematic Engineering Approach - The construction of an energy powerhouse is a systematic project that requires a balanced approach, emphasizing stability and progress [3] - The relationship between energy security and transition must be managed carefully, with a focus on gradual and orderly phasing out of traditional energy while promoting new energy sources [3] - Energy development must also consider energy conservation, advocating for green and low-carbon production and lifestyle practices [3] Group 4: Government and Market Relations - There is a need to deepen market-oriented reforms in competitive energy sectors and improve energy pricing mechanisms to stimulate internal motivation and innovation [4] - The new energy system will accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy framework during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [4]