Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - **Market Logic**: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].

Group 1 - South Korea will exclude rice and beef markets from trade negotiations with the United States [1]

金十数据7月23日讯，在宣布与日本达成贸易协议后，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟代表将于周三与美国 进行贸易谈判。特朗普表示，"明天轮到欧洲要来了，次日还有其他一些国家要来。" 特朗普：将于周三与欧盟进行贸易谈判 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正称其使命已完成。 ...

最近这段时间，关于石油的话题，成为了新的焦点。为了向俄罗斯总统普京施压，美国总统特朗普改变打法，威胁如果在50天内无法达成俄乌和平协议，将 对俄罗斯征收100%关税，并对部分国家实施所谓"二级制裁"。 由于美俄贸易几乎中断，特朗普主要想打好"二级制裁"这张牌，意图惩罚俄罗斯石油买家，对这些国家的进口商品征收高达100%的关税。而美方也直接进 行了点名，称中国、印度和巴西是俄罗斯石油的主要买家，要求三国停止购买。 美国威胁惩罚购买俄罗斯石油的国家 除了不许购买俄罗斯石油，美方对中国发出了新的威胁，不能再购买伊朗石油。美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时透露，特朗普政府与中国的谈判进展顺 利，但是并不急于与中国达成贸易协议，因为他们更关心的是贸易协定的质量，而不是达成时间。 紧接着，贝森特说出了真实意图，特朗普政府希望将中俄关系和中伊关系加入到谈判中，试图通过谈判阻止中国购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油。贝森特称，中国是 受制裁的伊朗石油和俄罗斯石油的大买家，所以可以开始讨论这个问题。 贝森特放话不许中国购买伊朗石油 美方施压不许购买俄罗斯石油一事，几乎不可能成功，且不说中国，就连非常依赖美国市场的印度，都已经对美国的做法表达了不 ...

美国财长贝森特：与中国的贸易谈判已经进入新阶段。与中国的会谈将于下周一周二在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the case of a Chinese-American executive, Ma Chen Yue, who was restricted from leaving China due to a criminal investigation, contrasting it with the U.S. actions against a Chinese engineer, Xu Zewei, highlighting the double standards in international relations and legal practices [2][4][6]. Group 1: Legal Context and Diplomatic Reactions - The Chinese government legally restricted Ma Chen Yue's departure from the country due to her involvement in a criminal case, emphasizing the need for compliance with Chinese laws during investigations [6][11]. - The U.S. response included demands for her immediate release, with Secretary of State Rubio labeling the situation as "unacceptable," and former President Trump threatening to reinstate tariffs on Chinese goods if she was not released by August 12 [6][19]. - The legal basis for China's actions is supported by its Criminal Procedure Law and Exit and Entry Administration Law, which allow for such restrictions on foreign nationals involved in criminal investigations [11][13]. Group 2: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The case of Ma Chen Yue is seen as a reflection of the broader technological and economic competition between the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors [8][24]. - The timing of the U.S. easing AI chip export restrictions coinciding with the diplomatic tensions suggests a complex interplay between legal actions and trade negotiations [15][18]. - The article highlights the structural contradictions in U.S. technology policy, where the government simultaneously restricts Chinese engineers while easing restrictions on technology exports to other countries [28][30]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The U.S. faces economic pressures, with potential GDP shrinkage and increased consumer costs if tariffs on Chinese goods are reinstated, indicating a need for negotiation [22][19]. - The upcoming trade talks in August are expected to address key issues such as tariff adjustments and high-tech trade restrictions, reflecting the urgency of the U.S. to stabilize its economic relations with China [19][21]. - The article suggests that the Ma Chen Yue incident could serve as a catalyst for redefining global trade rules, shifting the focus from strict export controls to innovation and competitiveness [32].

泰国财政部长Pichai Chunhavajira表示，泰国接近与美国达成协议，以在8月1日限期前降低泰国对美出 口商品面临的36%关税。他预计贸易谈判将在数日内完成。 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices have seen a significant increase after a period of stability, with Chow Sang Sang's gold price rising by 9 CNY per gram to 1021 CNY per gram, marking the highest price among major gold retailers [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold retailers has expanded to 52 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold maintaining the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1] - Other notable price changes include Lao Miao at 1014 CNY (+10), Liufu at 1015 CNY (+7), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1016 CNY (+8) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 6.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands [2] - The current recycling prices are as follows: 771.50 CNY for general gold, 776.90 CNY for Cai Bai, 769.30 CNY for Chow Sang Sang, 775.60 CNY for Chow Tai Fook, and 784.50 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price has continued to rise, breaking the 3400 USD mark, closing at 3396.71 USD per ounce, with a 1.41% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3384.71 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.35% [4] - Market uncertainty due to the approaching August 1 trade negotiation deadline has supported gold prices, while a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has created a favorable environment for gold investors [4] - The geopolitical situation has slightly eased with the announcement of new Ukraine-Russia negotiations scheduled for July 23, which may influence market sentiment [4]