Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in deposit interest rates in China, highlighting the challenges faced by banks in attracting deposits amid a significant wave of maturing deposits in 2026, estimated at 50 trillion yuan [4][17]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are still attracting attention from savers despite declining interest rates, with some banks offering rates as low as 1.55% for three-year deposits [5]. - As of January 7, over 30 banks have announced the issuance of large-denomination CDs for 2026, with promotional activities aimed at attracting depositors [5]. - The trend shows a shift towards shorter-term large-denomination CDs, with many banks focusing on one-year or shorter products, while five-year CDs are nearly extinct [8][16]. Group 2: Interest Rate Changes - Interest rates for three-month large-denomination CDs have dropped below 1%, with some banks offering rates as low as 0.95% [6][9]. - Most banks are offering three-year large-denomination CDs with rates not exceeding 2%, and one-year rates are often below 1.5% [9]. - Several private banks have accelerated their rate cuts, with notable reductions in rates for various terms, including a drop from 1.90% to 1.80% for three-year deposits at certain banks [12][14]. Group 3: Maturing Deposits and Investor Behavior - A significant amount of deposits, particularly those with terms of one year or more, will mature in 2026, with estimates indicating over 20 trillion yuan for two-year and three-year deposits [17]. - Investors are showing varied responses to maturing deposits, with some seeking higher returns through alternative investments like stocks or structured deposits, while others remain cautious and consider traditional savings options [18]. - The article notes that banks are adjusting their deposit strategies, promoting structured deposits and low-risk investment products to attract depositors facing maturing funds [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The prevailing market sentiment suggests that monetary policy will remain accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts in the near future [20][19]. - Analysts predict that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, possibly before the Spring Festival [19].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains loose despite a significant net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan in OMO operations during the week of January 3 to January 9, 2026, with the DR001 rate staying below 1.3% [2][15][31] - The central bank's recent meetings suggest a shift in attitude towards more flexible monetary policy tools, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to support economic growth [4][34][33] - The upcoming government bond issuance is expected to increase significantly, with a net supply of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan anticipated in January, which may lead to a rise in the central bank's bond purchases [35][36][55] Group 2 - The interbank lending market shows a slight decrease in Shibor rates, with the 1-year Shibor rate falling to 1.65% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a trend of declining borrowing costs [9][63] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has seen a net repayment of 156.4 billion yuan, with the total issuance rising to 1.764 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in funding dynamics among different types of banks [10][68] - The report highlights that the success rate of issuance for state-owned banks has improved, while other bank types have seen a decline, indicating varying levels of demand and market confidence [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. Although there may be a short - term rebound next week, the medium - term outlook remains bearish. The bearish macro - and micro - level logics for treasury bonds, especially ultra - long bonds, are long - term, so it's necessary to be cautious when betting on a rebound [1][2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 5th to 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Various factors such as changes in stock markets, commodity markets, central bank policies, and inflation data affected the daily trends of treasury bond futures. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.338, 105.570, 107.775, and 110.870 yuan respectively, down 0.108, 0.160, 0.050, and 0.510 yuan from last weekend [1][11] 1.2 Next Week's View - There may be a short - term rebound in the bond market next week, but the adjustment pressure remains in the medium term. Factors that may trigger a rebound include stock market adjustments, rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and weak economic indicators. However, the factors suppressing the bond market are long - term, and there won't be a major opportunity for the bond market to strengthen in the short term [13][14] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 58 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 763.234 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 349.184 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit all increased [17][18][20] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. By December 31st, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.44%, 1.65%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively, up 6.46, 2.10, 3.03, and 3.50 basis points from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [23][24][25] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 42,234, 70,459, 86,203, and 125,268 lots respectively, with changes of - 35, - 8,144, - 14,320, and - 103 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,124, 166,548, 245,351, and 181,430 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,902, + 814, + 3,386, and + 13,012 lots from last week [31][34] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the IRR of each variety generally declined, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies is not obvious. Recommended cash - and - carry strategies include laying out short - hedging strategies after the market rebounds and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [38] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - By January 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2603 - 2606 were - 0.042, + 0.005, + 0.090, and - 0.140 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, - 0.005, + 0.085, and + 0.070 yuan from last weekend [44] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - From January 5th to 9th, the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.3236 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2214 trillion yuan. The funding rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [46][47][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. By January 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.18%, down 1 basis point from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 229.9 basis points [56][57] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By January 9th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index all increased compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also changed compared to last weekend [60][62] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling strategy on rallies. Specific strategies include not chasing the high in the short - term rebound next week, paying attention to short - hedging strategies, moderately paying attention to steepening the yield curve strategy after the long - end varieties strengthen, and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [2][15][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Sheng Songcheng is that China's monetary policy is likely to adopt a "small step" approach, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts over interest rate reductions, while still allowing for some flexibility in both areas [1][2] - Sheng emphasizes that the monetary policy transmission mechanism in China is complex and relies heavily on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, making it difficult for the central bank to precisely control changes at each stage of the transmission [1] - The central bank's toolbox for monetary policy has been expanding, with various liquidity support tools and secondary market treasury transactions being utilized to manage liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Sheng argues that RRR cuts are more beneficial than interest rate cuts, as they increase the funds available for commercial banks, thereby better supporting proactive fiscal policies [2] - Since 2016, the statutory RRR has been cut 23 times, reducing the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points, while the policy interest rate has only been adjusted 14 times [2] - The current net interest margin of commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, significantly down from over 3.5% in 2008, indicating that large interest rate cuts could further pressure banks' operations [3]

1月10日，中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授盛松成在2026中国首席经济学家 论坛年会上表示，未来一段时间，货币政策"小步走"的可能性较大，降准降息仍有空间。 盛松成表示，货币政策一般聚焦中短期目标，在面临较多不确定性时，更需要"摸着石头过河"。与财政 政策可以直接介入经济活动不同，货币政策一般是间接发挥作用的，需要私人部门、商业银行及整个金 融体系的配合，其实施效果在相当程度上受市场反馈的影响。 从工具运用看，盛松成认为，我国货币政策工具箱日趋丰富，央行正在不断增强政策利率的作用，通过 各类流动性支持工具、二级市场国债买卖等方式投放流动性和调节资金成本，能有效平抑市场短期波 动。 在具体政策走向上，盛松成认为，降准优于降息，与国际上主要经济体的央行相比，我国降准还有较大 空间。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data showing an increase in CPI and PPI has alleviated market concerns about deflation, positively impacting equity assets while negatively affecting the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - PPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A50 index experienced a significant rise after initial volatility, with major A-share indices also showing strong performance, including a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and over 1% in the Shenzhen Component Index [2]. - Nearly 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets saw gains, indicating broad market strength [2]. Group 3: Financing and Market Environment - The financing balance in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 1.306 trillion yuan, increasing by 77.92 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's balance was 1.289 trillion yuan, up by 79.91 billion yuan, indicating a positive liquidity environment [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current liquidity and exchange rate conditions are more favorable compared to previous years, potentially leading to a strong start for the A-share market in the new year [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation in December 2025 and makes a forecast for January 2026. In December, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the funds across the year were stable. The monetary policy emphasizes cross - cycle balance and flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, and the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months, but the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [1][3][4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. December 2025 Funds and Liquidity Review: Active Injection, Stable across the Year (1) Funds Review: Narrow - range Fluctuation Continued In December 2025, the overnight fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous month, and the 7D funds fluctuation range widened. The overnight funds basically ran stably around 1.28%, and the 7D funds were stable around 1.45% from the beginning of the month to the 23rd, then rose continuously until reaching 1.9821% on the 31st. The overnight and 7D funds did not show an inversion. The funds were loose at the beginning of the month, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan of 3M repurchase on the 5th, and 60 billion yuan of 6M repurchase in the middle of the month, continuing the "short - term contraction and long - term expansion" operation. At the end of the year, affected by seasonal factors, the 7D funds price fluctuated slightly. The funds across the year were relatively stable [11][12]. (2) Liquidity Review: The Central Bank Actively Injected in December, Continuing the "Short - term Contraction and Long - term Expansion" - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In December, the base money may have increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, with government deposits supplementing about 1 trillion yuan, the central bank's net injection totaling 752.8 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds continuing to withdraw slightly by 7 billion yuan. After deducting the consumption of excess reserves, the excess reserves at the end of the month may have increased by about 1 trillion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.5%, at a seasonal level. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.8%, close to the seasonal level [36]. - **Open - market Operations**: In December, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases slightly increased, with a net injection of 28.19 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 40 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.25 trillion yuan. The net injection of the outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan, with a balance of 6.5 trillion yuan. The central bank also net - bought 5 billion yuan of national debt, carried out 26 billion yuan of treasury time deposits, and 15.94 billion yuan of PSL and other structural tools [46][51][54]. 2. December 2025 Monetary Policy Tracking: Focus on Cross - cycle Balance, Flexibly and Efficiently Use Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts In December 2025, important meetings emphasized "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." The overall loosening may be relatively prudent, but the idea of liquidity protection continues. The central bank emphasizes cross - cycle balance to avoid large - scale policy expansion and contraction. The central economic work conference takes promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting first proposed to "give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies." In a neutral scenario next year, the policy interest rate is likely to be cut once, with a range of 10bp [3][57][63]. 3. January 2026 Gap Prediction: Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months (1) Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Slightly Consumes Excess Reserves, and MLF Maturities Decrease Marginally In January, the increase in general deposits may consume about 32.96 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 20 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase matures at 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for 3M and 600 billion yuan for 6M), of which 1.1 trillion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed on the 7th [69]. (2) Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year In January, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits slightly consume excess reserves. Cash withdrawal may consume about 67.87 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 16.36 billion yuan [71]. (3) Fiscal Factors: A Big Month for Taxation, Coupled with Government Bond Issuance, May Partially Consume Reserves In January, government bond issuance pressure increases. Considering factors such as payment and refund, taxation, and fiscal expenditure, government deposits may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity [4][75][76]. (4) Comprehensive Judgment: Stable at the Beginning of the Month, Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, but the bank's liquidity level at the beginning of the month may be relatively abundant. Affected by factors such as the maturity of high - interest deposits and the renewal of large - scale certificates of deposit, the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months. However, considering the current relatively low excess reserve level, the central bank has no intention of large - scale withdrawal, and the Spring Festival is later, so the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [4][80].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, while maintaining ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy Predictions - The PBOC is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 1-2 times in 2026, releasing long-term liquidity of 1-2 trillion yuan, and reduce interest rates by 10-25 basis points, with a higher probability of lowering the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2]. - The target for social financing costs is to maintain them at historically low levels, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans around 3% [2]. - Social financing and M2 growth rates are expected to align with economic growth (around 5%) and price level targets (around 2%), with an average asset growth rate of about 8% across industries [2]. Impacts on Different Types of Banks Large State-owned Commercial Banks - Expected to increase new loans by approximately 15 trillion yuan, with a focus on key sectors [3]. - Net interest margin is projected to be around 1.4%, as the decline in funding costs is expected to exceed the decline in asset yields [3]. - Anticipated growth in bond underwriting income and wealth management scale by over 10% due to strong comprehensive financial service capabilities [3]. - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to drop below 1.2% [3]. Joint-stock Banks - Anticipated growth in technology and green finance loans by around 20% due to high marketization and product innovation capabilities [4]. - Net interest margin is expected to decline to below 1.5% [4]. - Digital transformation is expected to accelerate, with online credit approval rates reaching 80% [4]. - New customer acquisition is expected to increase significantly, with innovative products like "computing power loans" being introduced [4]. Urban Commercial Banks - Expected loan growth in local key industries and small businesses by around 20% [5]. - Net interest margin is projected to be between 1.4% and 1.5% [5]. - Anticipated growth in inclusive finance loans by around 15% [6]. - Digital service capabilities are expected to improve, with online channel coverage reaching 90% [6]. Rural Small Banks - Expected growth in agricultural and small business loans by around 15% [7]. - Anticipated reduction in funding costs, with the reserve requirement ratio dropping to around 4.5% [7]. - Policy support for inclusive finance is expected to increase by 30% [7]. - NPL ratio is projected to decrease to around 2.5% [7]. Challenges Faced by Different Types of Banks Large State-owned Banks - Facing pressure from narrowing net interest margins due to competitive pricing from large clients [8]. - Digital transformation efforts may be hindered by organizational complexity [8]. - High risk concentration in real estate and local government debts [8]. Joint-stock Banks - Expected further narrowing of net interest margins due to high funding costs [9]. - Capital replenishment pressure is significant, with an estimated need for 800 billion yuan [9]. - Risk control capabilities will be tested due to the high-risk nature of technology finance [9]. Urban Commercial Banks - Anticipated decline in net interest margins, with some nearing 1% [10]. - Increased liquidity risk due to high reliance on central bank funding [10]. - Digital transformation may lag behind due to insufficient investment [10]. Rural Small Banks - Weak risk control capabilities may lead to higher NPL ratios [11]. - Expected decline in net interest margins, with some nearing 1% [11]. - Digital transformation challenges due to small scale and lack of professional talent [11]. Differentiated Response Strategies - Large state-owned banks should focus on comprehensive financial services and enhance their role as policy transmission hubs [13]. - Joint-stock banks should strengthen their competitive advantages in technology and green finance [14]. - Urban commercial banks should deepen their local market presence and enhance digital services [15]. - Rural banks should focus on serving rural revitalization and enhance their financial service capabilities [16]. Summary and Outlook - The PBOC's accommodative monetary policy presents opportunities for total expansion, structural optimization, and profit enhancement for the banking sector, while also posing challenges such as narrowing net interest margins and risk management [17]. - Different types of banks should adopt differentiated strategies based on their strengths and characteristics to navigate the evolving landscape [18].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to implement flexible monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, to maintain ample liquidity in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy Expectations - The PBOC is anticipated to cut interest rates twice in 2026, with each cut ranging from 20 to 30 basis points (0.2% to 0.3%) [1] - The first and second cuts are preliminarily expected to occur in the first half and second half of the year, respectively [1] - There is a possibility of targeted interest rate reductions for residential mortgages through significant downward adjustments to the 5-year LPR (Loan Prime Rate) to stabilize the real estate market [1] Reserve Requirement Ratio Adjustments - The PBOC is projected to reduce the reserve requirement ratio 1 to 2 times in 2026, with a reduction magnitude of 0.5% to 1% [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential implementation of an RRR cut before the Spring Festival [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined key priorities for 2026, including the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy and the deepening of financial reforms and opening-up measures [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy [1] - The bank plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The goal is to ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC has made several deployments to deepen financial reform and enhance openness, including optimizing the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanisms [2] - Support for the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and the maintenance of Hong Kong's status as an international financial hub are emphasized [2] - The bank aims to facilitate the use of the renminbi in trade and investment through central bank currency swaps and improve cross-border financial services [2] - There is an initiative to welcome more eligible foreign entities to issue panda bonds and to expand the scope of rapid payment systems [2]