降准降息

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李庚南:央行为什么选择这个时点降准降息?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 06:35
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points to implement a more accommodative monetary policy and enhance macroeconomic regulation [1][8] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC's decision to lower the RRR and interest rates is aimed at releasing market liquidity and stimulating investment and consumption, especially in the face of various internal and external pressures on economic growth [1][3] - The PBOC emphasizes a cautious approach to using these tools, balancing the need for liquidity with the potential risks associated with a complex economic environment [1][2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Timing - Domestic economic indicators, such as a manufacturing PMI below 50% and low CPI, suggest a need for monetary easing to boost market confidence and stimulate demand [4][8] - The current liquidity conditions in the financial market, including rising interbank rates, indicate a need for increased liquidity supply from the PBOC [5][9] - The pressure on banks' net interest margins has eased, providing a more favorable environment for the PBOC to implement rate cuts [6][10] Group 3: External Influences - The global liquidity environment, particularly the policies of the Federal Reserve, plays a significant role in the PBOC's decision-making regarding rate cuts [7][12] - Expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve create a "time window" for the PBOC to adjust its policies without immediate adverse effects on the currency [12]
央行宣布降准降息,金融ETF(510230)涨超1%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 06:11
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates [1] - The financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index, which includes 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the financial sector, reflecting the overall performance of the financial industry in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Banks are expected to increase dividend rates in 2024 due to favorable policies and a decline in risk appetite amid macroeconomic uncertainties, highlighting the high dividend advantage of the banking sector [2] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see quality growth in liabilities and stable performance in assets, with listed insurance companies showing overall stable performance in Q1, maintaining growth and structural adjustments [2] - The brokerage sector has experienced a valuation correction due to a decrease in global risk appetite, but the performance of brokerages in Q1 was strong, indicating improved value for investment [2]
降息又降准,房地产又香了?
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-07 05:43
题图来自:AI生成 5月7日上午9点,国新办举行新闻发布会,中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券管理委员 会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,以降准降息为主。 降准降息相关主要内容有: 先看与普通人关系最密切的公积金降息政策,这次通过降息,减少了此前公积金贷款和商贷方面利差的 问题,确保了公积金政策的实际有效性,同时进一步降低了房贷成本。 以100万贷款本金、30年期、等额本息的首套房公积金贷款为例,政策当前月供为4136元,政策后为 4003元,减少了133元。总还款总额(本金+利息)从过去的149万变为144万,减少了约5万元成本。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向知危表示,从过去的金融政策操作惯例来看,此次政策主要是指 新购房的公积金贷款利率。根据政策规定,此前已经发放的公积金贷款,在明年元旦后将进行下调。 LPR下调0.1个百分点,也就是下调10个基点的概念,严跃进认为这意味着降息通道即将开启,今年二 季度将计入到降息和资金成本进一步放宽的空间。对于促进LPR进一步下调以及有关的贷款利率下调等 都有较为积极的作用。 整体来看,降息对于购房房贷的影响是积极的。央行数据显示, ...
超预期!央行宣布降准降息,告诉我们重要信息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 05:40
5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会上,央行行长潘功胜宣布:降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。公开市场7 天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%,预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分点。 也就是说,降准降息来了! 降准方面,幅度高达0.5个百分点,释放长期流动性约1万亿元,超出预期,央行过往降准一般是0.25个百分点。 意义:有助于增加市场上的资金数量。印证了中国社会科学院学部委员余永定的观点: 与2024年相比,中国人民银行想通过现有政策工具降低市场基准利率,加快M2增速,从而实现 GDP增速5%左右、通货膨胀率涨幅2%左右的货 币政策最终目标。 之前监管已经明确:从2025年起每年新增保费的30%用于投资A股。未来三年公募基金持有A股流通市值每年至少增长10%。 我前期文章中多次提到,我国已经明确今年经济增长目标是5%左右,为了这个目标,外部环境风险越大,国内宏观政策发力的力度就越大,一轮 政策组合拳随时来临,现在得到印证,未来根据形势需要不排除还会有新的组合拳 此外,央行宣布降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点,预计每年将节省居民公积金 ...
央行宣布降准又降息 影响几何
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-05-07 05:32
深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 如何看待此次降准降息的影响?对此,中泰证券(600918)研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅指出,降准降 息有望进一步降低融资成本以及居民住房贷款负担,强化对经济的支撑。总体看,有利于维护中国的汇 市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行。 东部一家公募基金投研部人士认为,本次降息不仅政策利率下降,支农支小再贷款利率、住房公积金贷 款利率等也一同降低。预计政策利率下降将引导LPR和存款利率同步下行,有利于保持商业银行净息差 的稳定,同时通过利率传导,有效降低实体经济融资成本。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,此次降准降息主要有两个作用:一是降低企业和居民贷款利率,增 强银行的放贷能力,扩大投资和消费;二是,降准降息的货币政策是一个大招,释放了强烈的稳增长信 号,有助于提振市场信心,稳住宏观经济走势,稳定就业大局。 长城基金认为,货币政策速度和力度均超出市场预期,有利于市场风险偏好修复。就政策本身而言,利 好金融、房地产板块等。需要注意的是,4月市场在承受了关税冲击后快速回落,随后流动性开始企 稳,市场从底部开始震荡回升;当下是明显的政策刺激拐点,结构上看,主题交易和高低切换轮动可能 是后续市 ...
宏观金融数据日报-20250507
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 05:22
Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]
5.7一揽子金融政策解读:降息降准稳楼市股市,提振内需促关税谈判
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-07 05:12
Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, promoting stable growth in loans for households and enterprises[2] - A simultaneous reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of structural monetary tools such as re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises will help lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, stabilizing net interest margins and enhancing the efficiency of interest rate transmission[2] - The expectation for continued active use of RRR cuts in the second half of the year remains, with an annual forecast of 100-150 basis points (BP) in total[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Policy interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points (BP) and public housing loan rates by 25 BP to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for supporting domestic demand[3] - The creation of 500 billion yuan in service consumption and pension re-loans aims to stimulate demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the post-real estate cycle[3] - The recent downward trend in the real estate market, especially in second and third-tier cities, indicates that policy support is still needed to maintain stability[3] Economic Strategy and Trade Relations - The "stable exchange rate - stable real estate - promote domestic demand" cycle is expected to strengthen, providing a basis for China to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S.[3] - The Ministry of Commerce has signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and benefit as prerequisites for dialogue[3] - The combination of stable real estate policies and measures to boost consumption and investment is enhancing market confidence in China's ability to manage external shocks[3] Capital Market Support - The central bank is increasing support for technological innovation and transformation with an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans, alongside the creation of risk-sharing tools for tech innovation bonds[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability[4] - A combined monetary policy tool worth 800 billion yuan is aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and mitigating potential market volatility risks[4]
关于降准降息,潘功胜详解
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 03:44
二是降低所有结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点,结构性货币政策工具一般指中央银行向商业银行 提供的贷款,预计每年可节约银行资金成本大概150亿元—200亿元,推动银行加力支持经济结构转型。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,这次下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点,向 金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。通过降准可以优化央行向银行体系提供流动性的结构,降低银行 负债成本,增强银行负债的稳定性。降准0.5个百分点以后,整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从原来的 6.6%降低到6.2%。 同时,阶段性降低汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率,从目前的5%降至0%。这两类机构直 接面向汽车消费、设备更新投资等领域提供金融支持,降低存款准备金率后,将有效增强这两类机构面 向特定领域的信贷供给能力。 关于降低利率,潘功胜表示,有三方面内容:一是下调政策利率0.1个百分点,公开市场7天期逆回购操 作利率下调到1.4%。经过市场化的利率传导,预计将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)随之下行0.1个百 分点。同时,将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 "上述政策措施将向金融机构提供规模可观的、低成本的 ...
债券策略月报:2025年5月中债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250507
Zhe Shang Guo Ji Jin Rong Kong Gu· 2025-05-07 03:09
[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 5 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 一季度经济实现开门红,实际 GDP 同比 5.4%,名义 GDP 同比 4.6%,反应 9.24 新政以来经济复苏的积极因素在不断累积;政治局会议强调加紧实施已落地的 政策,财政发债节奏加快,货币政策加力,市场对宽松预期明显升温。上证综 指和深证成指在月末分别收于 3279、9899.8,月内涨跌幅分别为-1.7%、-5.76%。 债市则受避险情绪影响,4 月初迎来一波快牛,10 年国债收益率两个交易日内 下行 18bp,但随着后续多空力量进入相对平衡状态,利率难上但也难下,10 年国债收益率在 1.62-1.67%区间震荡。展望后续,基本面对债市的影响逐渐 弱化+中美关税谈判难以短期达成和解的背景下,5 月偏宽松的资金面可能会 给短端品种带来更好的投资机会,同时可以在组合中保留一定的久期仓位,以 抓捕降准/降息落地后带来的一波快牛机会。 | 分析师: | 曹潮 ...
降息、降准!央行行长潘功胜最新发声 “十箭”齐发释放重磅利好!一文读懂
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 03:04
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。中国人民银行行 长潘功胜在发布会上表示,中国人民银行将加大宏观调控强度,实施三大类10项措施。 降准降息!潘功胜:三大类政策,共十项措施 第一类是数量型政策,主要通过降准等措施,加大中长期流动性供给,保持市场流动性充裕。 1、降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 2、完善存款准备金制度,阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的5%调降为 0%。 第二类是价格型政策,主要包括下调政策利率、降低结构性货币政策工具的利率以及调降公积金贷款利 率。 1、下调政策利率0.1个百分点,即公开市场七天期逆回购利率从目前的1.5%降至1.4%,预计将带动贷款 市场报价利率(LPR)同步下行约0.1个百分点。 2、下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点,包括各类专项结构性政策工具利率。例如,支农、支 小再贷款利率从目前的1.75%降至1.5%;抵押补充贷款(PSL)利率从目前的2.25%降至2%。 3、降低个人住房公积金贷 ...