Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Core Insights - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market to stabilize the economy [1][2] - The reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points is expected to alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins [3] - Structural monetary policies have been introduced to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [4] - The expansion of financial asset investment company (AIC) pilot programs is anticipated to increase insurance capital inflows into the market [5] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank's RRR reduction from 6.6% to 6.2% is aimed at providing long-term liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan [2] - The LPR is expected to decrease by 10 basis points, which will positively impact banks' net interest margins and net profit growth [3] - Structural monetary policies include an increase of 300 billion yuan in re-lending for technology innovation and a 500 billion yuan re-lending for service consumption and elderly care [4] Financial Sector Support - The report highlights the importance of financial support for technology innovation, with a focus on increasing re-lending quotas and creating risk-sharing tools for tech bonds [4] - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase long-term investments, with a proposed reduction in investment risk factors to stimulate market participation [5] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include high-quality banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Shanghai Bank, with target prices set above current market levels [11][17] - The report emphasizes the dividend advantages of major Hong Kong-listed banks like ICBC and ABC, suggesting they are attractive investment options [1][5]

【库存】 【现货】 现货稳中有涨。华东螺纹指导价维稳至3220元每吨，实际成交价+20至3080元每吨。10月合约期货升水 现货18元，华东热卷+30至3300元每吨，主力合约贴水现货83元每吨。 【供给】 铁水回升明显，环比+1.1万吨至245.4万吨，废钢日耗环比-1万吨至52.7万吨。五大材产量环比+7.9至884 万吨。螺纹钢产量+4.3万吨至233.4万吨，热卷产量+1.8万吨至319.3万吨。钢厂维持去库，库存绝对值 回到季节性低点，支撑钢厂产量维持高位。 【需求】 受产量上升，以及五一终端补库影响，本期表需新高。五大材表需+44.6万吨至971万吨。螺纹钢表需 +32万吨至292万吨；热卷表需+8维稳至322.7万吨。 五一节前补库，去库较好。五大材环比-87万吨至1447万吨；其中螺纹-58.3万吨至644万吨；热卷-13.4万 吨至354.3万吨。 【成本和利润】 焦炭第二轮调涨受阻，成本持稳。高炉钢厂螺纹钢维持50元每吨利润，热卷维持100元每吨利润。电炉 钢厂亏损。 【观点】 昨日盘面冲高回落，昨出台降准降息的政策，叠加产业端低库存，盘面整体表现偏弱。周度数据显示， 五大材产量小幅增加， ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]

文字早评 2025/05/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.80%，创指+0.51%，科创 50+0.36%，北证 50-0.46%，上证 50+0.87%，沪深 300+0.61%， 中证 500+0.17%，中证 1000+0.14%，中证 2000+0.74%，万得微盘+1.22%。两市合计成交 14683 亿，较上 一日+1321 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、潘功胜：将下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，并下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从目前的 1.5% 下调到 1.4%，同时下调住房公积金利率 0.25 个百分点。 2、A 股 4 月新开户 192 万户，同比增长 31%。 3、证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、 费率调降。 资金面：融资额+143.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-4.50bp 至 1.6570%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.04bp 至 3.0940%，十年期国债利率+1.76bp 至 1.6458%，信用利差-1.72bp 至 145bp；美国 10 年期利率-6.00bp ...

房地产再迎重磅利好。 央行推出三大类共十项一揽子货币政策措施，一是数量型政策，通过普遍降准和定向降准加大中长期流动性供给。二是价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低 结构性货币政策工具利率，调降公积金贷款利率。三是结构型政策，完善现有结构性货币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普 惠金融等领域。 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从6.6%降至6.2%，降低银行负债成本，增强银 行体系对购房者和开发企业的贷款能力，这将缓解房企开发贷及供应链融资压力，尤其是民营房企的信用风险溢价有望收窄。 图源：丁祖昱评楼市 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。会上，央行宣布推出包括降准降息在内的三大类十项举措，金 融监管局将推出八项增量政策，包括完善房地产系列融资制度等。 针对房地产市场，央行和金融监管总局推出几大增量金融政策，加力巩固房地产止跌回稳势头。内容具体表现在以下几个方面： 政策通过"降成本+扩需求+稳预期"三管齐下，将直接降低购房成本，提振市场交易活跃度，缓解房企流动性压力。 01 降准又降 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - As of May 7, 2025, the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020) closed at 117.41 CNY, with a recent half-year cumulative increase of 3.48% [1] - The trading volume for the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF was 5.27 billion CNY, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 35.89% [1] - The latest scale of the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF reached 1.469 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion CNY into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [2] - Analysts believe that the recent rate cuts have already been priced into the 10-year government bonds, with expectations of a 30 basis point reduction, suggesting that a further 10 basis point cut may not be viewed as favorable [2] - East China Securities noted that the bond market may experience a "good news already priced in" scenario, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Company Bond ETF (511030) closed at 105.6 CNY, with a half-year cumulative increase of 1.14% [3] - The trading volume for the Company Bond ETF was 15.87 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 11.84%, indicating a vibrant trading environment [3] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 13.397 billion CNY, marking a one-year high [3] Group 4: National Development Bond ETF Insights - The National Development Bond ETF (159651) closed at 105.95 CNY, with a one-year cumulative increase of 2.10% [6] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 68.96 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.14% [6] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF grew by 296 million CNY over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [6] Group 5: ETF Product Composition - The "Three Musketeers" of the bond ETFs managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020), covering a range of durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - Gold: Slight progress in China-US negotiations [2] - Silver: Oscillate and decline [2] - Copper: Continuous decline in inventory limits price decline [2] - Aluminum: Price under pressure [2] - Alumina: Continue to bottom out [2] - Zinc: Operate under pressure [2] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, range-bound oscillation [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside space converges, and nickel prices return to narrow-range oscillation [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and there is still support below the futures price [2] - Tin: Prices weakened during the holiday [2] - Industrial silicon: Weak demand, weak futures price [2] - Polysilicon: Futures price hits a new low since listing [2] - Lithium carbonate: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory accumulation pattern restricts the rebound [2] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold 2506 closed at 801.04 with a daily increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closed at 802.68 with a 0.07% increase. Comex Gold 2506 closed at 3400.32 with a 2.46% increase. The trend strength is 0. China's central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months [5][8][9]. - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver 2506 closed at 8252 with a 0.21% increase, and the night - session closed at 8146 with a - 1.15% decrease. Comex Silver 2506 closed at 32.610 with a - 2.47% decrease. The trend strength is - 1 [5][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 77,790 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session closed at 77450 with a - 0.44% decrease. LME Copper 3M closed at 9,406 with a 1.74% increase. The inventory continued to decline, and the trend strength is 0. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 19465, down 320 from the previous day. LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2381, down 47 from the previous day. The price is under pressure, and the trend strength is - 1. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production, and the trend strength of alumina is 0 [13][15]. - **Zinc**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22210 with a - 0.65% decrease. LME Zinc 3M closed at 2625.5 with a 0.40% increase. The trend strength is - 1 [16][17]. - **Lead**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16700 with a 0.00% change. LME Lead 3M closed at 1917.5 with a - 0.72% decrease. The supply and demand are weak, and the trend strength is 0 [19][20]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 124,450, down 180 from the previous day. The upside and downside space converges, and the trend strength is 0. Some Indonesian nickel - iron projects are resuming production, and the resource tax on nickel products has been adjusted [22][23]. - **Stainless steel**: The main contract closed at 12,710, down 25 from the previous day. Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and the trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Tin**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 261,230 with a 0.10% increase, and the night - session closed at 259,430 with a - 0.94% decrease. LME Tin 3M closed at 31,645 with a - 1.10% decrease. Prices weakened during the holiday, and the trend strength is - 1 [25][26]. Other Metals - **Industrial silicon**: The Si2506 contract closed at 8,290, down 35 from the previous day. The demand is weak, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2506 contract closed at 35,520, down 890 from the previous day. The futures price hits a new low since listing, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The 2507 contract closed at 64,160, down 1,100 from the previous day. The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory accumulation pattern restricts the rebound. The trend strength is 0 [33].

每日报告 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2505 | 22745 | 22675 | 22870 | 22650 | -30 | -0.13 | 8490 | -2565 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 2 ...

5月7日，A股在降准降息利好刺激下大幅高开，但随后承压回落，市场成交额放大至1.5万亿元，军工产 业全线走强，AI应用及算力方向高开低走。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.8%报3342.67点，深证成指涨 0.22%，创业板指涨0.51%，中证A500指数涨0.51%。 资金加仓核心宽基，近两个交易日，A500ETF基金（512050）净流入超1亿元。 相关ETF全称：华夏中证A500ETF（512050），联接基金(A类:022430;C类:022431) （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 昨日，三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点， 设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括加快出台适配房地 产发展新模式的融资制度、再批复600亿元保险资金长期投资试点等。证监会将全力支持中央汇金发挥 好类"平准基金"作用，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施等。 申万宏源证券认为，发布会召开节点本身就体现了稳定资本市场的政策目标。短期A股市场所处的节 点 ...

5月7日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部门负责人同台发声，详细介 绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"相关举措，向市场释放积极信号：面对复杂多变的全球经济形 势，中国正以更积极、更精准的政策工具，为市场稳定与经济增长"保驾护航"。 记者注意到，政策公布后，A股市场迅速反应，三大指数集体上涨。贾婷婷预计，短期内股指将再度出 现趋势性行情。"分指数来看，上证50和沪深300两个指数中内需相关企业占比较大，即便中美贸易争端 持续，其受影响的程度也相对较小；中证500和中证1000两个指数中成长型企业占比较大，其中以出口 为主的消费电子类企业受中美贸易争端的影响较大。" 进一步细分板块，贾婷婷认为，降准降息直接利好金融机构，尤其是银行。降准降息有利于银行扩充资 金来源、增强放贷能力，进而提升盈利水平。另外，推动中长期资金入市、支持上市公司并购重组等政 策措施，将为券商带来更多的业务机会。金融板块表现值得期待。 展望A股表现，郁泓佳预计，二季度市场将震荡偏强运行。一方面，促内需政策措施的推进对冲了外需 下降压力；另一方面，中美贸易争端有所缓和与国内财政政策发力等因素支撑风险偏好。 从结构来看 ...