1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the bond market first declined significantly and then fluctuated sideways under the influence of factors such as the unexpected US tariff policy, better Q1 fundamental data, and the repeated Sino - US tariff game. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15BP to 1.66%. The yield curve flattened in a bullish manner [1][8]. - In May, the supply of government bonds is expected to reach a peak, with the special treasury bonds entering the issuance peak and the accelerated implementation of new special bonds. The net supply of government bonds in May may be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high [2][49]. - The central bank is likely to conduct operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF net injection to support liquidity, and may restart treasury bond trading operations. Substantive loose monetary policies such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts are also expected, and the money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May, attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and the short - term trading opportunities. The 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and appropriate incremental allocation can be made during adjustments [5][81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Declined Significantly and Then Fluctuated Sideways, and the Yield Curve Flattened in a Bullish Manner - In April, affected by multiple factors, the bond market first declined and then fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15.23BP to 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 8.78BP to 1.45%. The term spread narrowed by 6.45BP to 21.05BP [1][8]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a cooling trend, the labor market remained resilient, and the US equivalent tariff policy led to a decline in global risk appetite. The US Treasury yield rose significantly due to liquidity issues caused by basis trading. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June [10]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Supply Peak is Approaching, Pay Attention to the Central Bank's Attitude and Hedging Operations - **Fundamentals**: Q1 fundamental data recovered more than expected, but the macro - data led by exports may be under short - term pressure in Q2. In May, continue to focus on the continuation of strong social financing, the improvement of CPI, the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on exports, and the drag of external demand on PMI. Also, pay attention to the impact of the improvement of real - estate data on the fundamentals [2][33]. - **Supply**: In May, the special treasury bonds will enter the issuance peak, and the new special bonds will be accelerated. The net supply of government bonds is expected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high. The supply of ordinary treasury bonds and special bonds for replacing hidden debts may shrink [2][49]. - **Money Market**: The accelerated issuance of government bonds may disturb the money market, but the central bank is likely to conduct operations to support liquidity. The money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone for macro - policies, but the incremental information was limited. Structural and aggregate monetary policy tools are expected to work together. Reserve - requirement ratio cuts may occur in May, while interest - rate cuts need to wait for the Fed to open the window [3][70]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In April, institutions increased their bond holdings, but there were obvious differences between bulls and bears. Banks were the main sellers, and other institutions were buyers. In May, there are opportunities for allocation in ultra - long - term bonds and trading in short - term bonds [4][75]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Not Bearish, Pay Attention to the Allocation Value of Ultra - long - term Bonds under the Supply Peak - In May, the main points of concern include the stability of the money market, the supply peak of government bonds, the implementation of loose policies, and the impact of external demand on the macro - economy. The bond market is not bearish in the short - term, and the 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and short - term trading opportunities [80][81]. 3.3 Important Economic Calendar for May The report provides a list of important economic indicators to be released in May and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, PPI, CPI, and PMI [83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, and there are three reasons why interest rates cannot decline: the central bank's restrained use of monetary policy, the short - end's inability to decline restricting the long - end's decline, and the lingering concern of negative Carry [2][3][10] - After the Politburo meeting, the trading directions include grasping the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations, considering the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing, and making appropriate strategy and position selections [14] - The bond market is about to confirm the economic fundamentals in April. Holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy. In May, the peak of fiscal supply and loose monetary policy may lower the capital interest rate center. One can also take advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and extend the duration [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the bond market's sideways trend and non - decline of interest rates - The central bank's restrained use of monetary policy suppresses the downward imagination space of short - term bonds. In the TS2506 futures contract, there are two stages: in the first stage, the expectation of loose money led to the steepening of the contract and a high IRR; in the second stage, the positive arbitrage strategy value emerged, and the short - end interest rate was difficult to decline under the influence of capital interest rates and central bank operations [3][5] - The short - end's inability to decline restricts the long - end's decline. The current yield curve is extremely flat, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread approaching the lowest level in nearly 3 years at 21bp [7][9] - Negative Carry is still a concern but has been significantly alleviated. Although it is not the main contradiction currently, it may intensify if the bond market continues to move sideways [10] Trading directions after the Politburo meeting - Grasp the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations. Considering factors such as the fiscal supply peak in May - June, the impact of tariffs on the economy in the second quarter, and the low leverage ratio in the bond market, one can take advantage of the central bank's care for liquidity to bet on the downward opportunity of the yield curve [14] - Consider the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions, holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy, and the impact of fundamentals on interest rate increases is relatively limited [14] - Make appropriate strategy and position selections. After the tax - payment peak in April, the capital market is expected to be balanced and loose in May - June. One can extend the duration by taking advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and wait for the interest rate to decline [14]

固收周度点评 20250427 债市蓄力，提前布局 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com ➢ 债市盘整期，蓄力破局 本周（4/21-4/25）债市震荡特征较为明显，上半周多空交织，关税政策反 复放大债市波动，周初税期走款压力下资金面有所收敛，市场处于 MLF 续作、 特别国债发行及降准落地的期待中，情绪较为纠结。进入后半周，债市震荡走强， 特别国债发行结果尚可，叠加当日公告的 MLF 续作 6000 亿元，资金价格有所 回落，提振债市表现，周五政治局会议落地，再提"适时降准降息"，但影响或边 际减弱，债市延续震荡格局。 4/21，债市震荡走弱，早盘 LPR 报价维持不变，税期走款扰动下，资金面 边际收敛，叠加股市低开高走，债市利率开盘后震荡上行，午后随着市场情绪有 所改善，转为震荡行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 1.8、2.6、 1.7、1.9BP 至 1.4 ...

自4月2日美国宣布"对等关税"政策后，市场迅速上调国内货币政策宽松预期，进而带动国债收益率运行 区间下移。近期政策增量信号有限，市场认为货币政策调整的边际变化不大，焦点在于央行关键操作时 点。 ?4月21日，LPR报价维持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，一季度经济数据开局良好，贸易争端对我国出 口及经济基本面的影响有待时间和数据检验，在当前时点，前瞻性降息的必要性不高；另一方面，息差 及汇率的内外部压力仍较大，对货币政策进一步宽松形成制约。 上下驱动均不足 鉴于一季度经济开局良好、关税政策对基本面的影响尚未明确，市场对后续增量政策力度的预期不高。 中性情景为加快现有政策落地、加快特别国债等政府债发行节奏，以及围绕"两新"及民生加快财政支 出。 中债在4月3日、4月7日大幅走强后，转为高位震荡。从现券收益率来看，10年期国债活跃券收益率在本 周前3个交易日运行于1.645%~1.665%，30年期国债活跃券收益率运行于1.8660%~1.8995%。在期货市场 上，10年期、30年期、5年期、2年期国债期货主力合约本周前3个交易日累计跌幅分别为0.21%、 0.27%、0.19%和0.07%。 美国关税政策反复 当 ...

核 心 观 点 近日，在对等关税政策超预期的冲击下，人民币汇率快速贬值，国内债市也涨回年初水平。那么，汇率对 于利率究竟有何影响？更进一步地，人民币汇率贬值会制约央行货币政策宽松么？ 汇率对利率有影响么？ 汇率和利率本质上并不存在直接的推导关系，历史上 人民币汇率和10年期国债利率多 数时候呈反向关系，即汇率贬值时期往往债市走牛的概率较高。 不过，汇率贬值和利率下行并不一定同时出 现， 短周期内汇率和利率呈正向关系的情况也曾出现过， 持续时间大多都在一个季度以内，汇率和利率很快 仍将回归反向变动，一般出现在汇率和利率反映的经济预期分化或中美关系变化等背景下。根本上，国内利率 水平与货币政策操作密切相关，是对国内经济基本面变化的反映，而汇率仅阶段性影响货币政策节奏，不至于 扭转市场利率的走势。 汇率是货币宽松的掣肘么？ 回顾历史上的三轮人民币贬值周期，央行货币宽松并未暂停。相较于降息直接带 来资本外流而言，降准对汇率的影响相对中性，故在历次贬值周期内，央行对于降息更为谨慎。具体来看，央 行在两轮人民币走贬时期同时采取降准和降息，而在2018年至2019年的人民币贬值周期内，央行并未调降过政 策利率， 主要的区别 ...

截至2025年4月18日，公司债ETF最新报价105.5元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月18日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.09%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手4.07%，成交5.39亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月18日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交15.89亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达132.60亿元。 资金流入方面，公司债ETF最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.28亿元，日均净流入达2555.72万元。 截至2025年4月18日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.01%。国债ETF5至10年(511020)多空胶着，最新报价117.24元。拉长时间看， 截至2025年4月18日，国债ETF5至10年近1月累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手9.6%，成交1.38亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月18日，国债ETF5至10年近1年日均成交3.07亿元。 上周，债市整体略有上行，超长利率债上行，超长信用利差走阔。 截至2025年4月18日 15:00，国开债券ETF(159651)上涨0. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company maintains an optimistic outlook on the future performance of the Chinese bond market, driven by policy and economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The first factor supporting this optimism is the policy environment, where potential macroeconomic policies may be introduced to counteract external pressures from U.S. tariffs, with monetary easing being a likely direction [1] - The second factor is the economic fundamentals, where reduced external demand due to U.S. tariffs may lead to lower inflation, creating a favorable environment for the bond market [1]

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 中长期借鉴>范佳音等>高美级目小在审指音 | 昌等级同业存审指基 > 现金管理 > 短债塞金>中长 | | 收益回顾 | >现金管理>含权债基 | 期债基 > 含权债基 | | | 近一个月资金面转松,关税冲击国内名义经 | | | 债市回顾 | 济增长预期,信贷扩张趋稳,债市情绪明显 | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅调整,3月 | | | 改善后转而关注政策对冲和关税进展,债券 | 中旬以来转为偏强震荡。 | | | 利率快速下行后转为窄幅震荡。 | | | 行业事件 | | 1、银行理财、保险资管首次获得网下 IPO"打新"入场券。短期有助于理财固收+产品"稳中求 | | 跟踪 | 进"策略更好实现,长期或推动理财权益投资占比进一步提升,有利于产品多样化。 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | | 债券市场中长期仍有机会。美国经济"滞胀"压力 | | | -同业存单:预计利率 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In Q1 2025, the total social financing increased by 15.18 trillion yuan, with March contributing 5.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan[2] - The increase in RMB loans for Q1 2025 was 9.78 trillion yuan, with March alone adding 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan[2] - The M2 growth rate in March was 7%, unchanged from the previous month, while M1 grew by 1.6%, up from 0.1%[2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The government bond financing in March was 1.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.02 trillion yuan, indicating strong fiscal support[6] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with March seeing 2.84 trillion yuan in new loans, a year-on-year increase of 5 billion yuan[11] - Despite the recovery in corporate financing, household loan demand weakened, with March's new household loans at 9.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 447 billion yuan[12] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with potential for rate cuts depending on domestic demand recovery and external economic conditions[3] - The central bank's focus on macro-prudential management of the bond market indicates a cautious approach to interest rate risks[21] - Future monetary policy tools will include targeted cuts and structural tools to support key sectors like technology and infrastructure[36]