欧洲央行行长拉加德：在利率政策上我们处于一个很好的位置。 ...

欧洲央行会议纪要：部分成员认为应维持当前利率水平。 ...

欧洲央行管委穆勒：欧洲央行维持利率暂时不变是合理的。 ...

6月30日消息，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧央行当前采取的利率立场被认为是正确的，且这一利率 政策与实现通胀回落至2%的目标相一致；鉴于目前存在的不确定性，必须保留所有关于利率调整的选 项。（新华财经） ...

智通财经6月30日电，欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS在马德里发表讲话表示，当前的利率立场是正确的，利 率政策与通胀向2%靠拢是兼容的。 ...

Group 1: Tariff Effects - Powell indicated that the proposed tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a "one-time increase" in prices, but the actual impact may exceed traditional economic model predictions [3] - The final scale, implementation pace, and market response to tariffs will determine the inflation transmission path, with potential for short-term price pressures to evolve into persistent risks [3] - The Federal Reserve must be vigilant about tariffs amplifying inflation pressures through multiple channels, such as increased terminal prices due to rising import costs and accelerated consumer spending in anticipation of price hikes [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - In light of tariff uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's decision-making logic is becoming clearer, with Powell stating that the current tariff plan's scale far exceeds the pilot phase of 2018 [4] - Historical experience has limited reference value due to enhanced global economic interconnectedness, necessitating observation of actual tariff impacts on corporate pricing behavior and consumer responses before assessing policy response space [4] - The market's expectation of two rate cuts within the year remains uncertain, contingent on summer inflation data and trade negotiation progress [4] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's cautious stance is directly related to policy divergences with the Trump administration, which continues to call for rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5] - Powell reiterated that monetary policy should be based on economic data rather than political considerations, amidst questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - The initiation of the process to select Powell's successor by Trump has heightened market concerns regarding policy continuity, with Powell's term ending in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Market Impact - The interplay between tariff and monetary policies is injecting uncertainty into financial markets, particularly affecting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] - Gold prices may be supported by inflation expectations if tariffs drive actual inflation, while a softening economic data could accelerate easing and suppress gold price performance [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor industry specifics related to tariff implementation, Federal Reserve officials' statements, and core PCE inflation data to capture signals of policy turning points [7]

捷克央行维持利率在3.5%不变，符合预期。 ...

捷克央行将 利率维持在3.5%，预估为3.5%。 ...

泰国央行：以6比1的投票结果决定维持利率不变。 ...

日本央行政策委员田村直树周三表示，央行应考虑毫不拖延地进一步加息，因为通胀可能比预期更早达 到目标。这位被视为鹰派的前商业银行高管认为，即使面对美国关税政策的不确定性，央行也可能需 要"果断"行动以应对不断增长的价格压力。 田村直树在福岛县对商界领袖发表讲话时表示： 通胀上升速度可能超过日本央行预测，迫使央行在全球不确定性环境下果断采取行动。实现 价格稳定目标的可能性很大，而且可能比预期更早实现。 这一表态明显比央行行长植田和男更为鹰派。植田和男此前强调，由于美国贸易政策存在"极高"不确定 性，有必要暂停加息。日本央行在上周的政策会议上维持利率不变。 田村直树的言论突显了央行内部在利率政策上的分歧。同日公布的6月会议意见摘要显示，政策委员会 内部存在更为谨慎的声音，一些委员认为在前景极不确定的情况下，央行暂时维持当前政策利率是合适 的。 通胀预期上升可能超出央行预测 田村直树表示，在特朗普4月宣布关税之前，基础通胀一直朝着实现央行2%目标迈进，并且上升速度略 快于预期。他认为，虽然美国关税将在一段时间内对日本经济和价格造成压力，但消费者通胀率可能在 2027财年期间维持在2%左右。 田村直树说道： 一直在上升 ...