Core Viewpoint - A wave of "deposit migration" is sweeping the wealth management market as deposit rates continue to decline, leading to a significant shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to wealth management products and non-bank financial institutions [1][10]. Group 1: Trends in Wealth Management - Wealth management companies are adopting various strategies in response to the influx of funds, including lowering fees, introducing floating fee rate products, and offering customized wealth management solutions [1]. - The emergence of floating fee rate products, such as the one launched by China Merchants Bank, links management fees to performance, which has garnered strong market interest, with products selling out on the first day [3][4]. - The rise of "interest-subsidized wealth management" strategies, where additional yield is provided by partner institutions, is becoming popular, although it may pose risks to other investors [1][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The wealth management market is undergoing structural changes, with a record increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, indicating a shift in investor behavior towards money market funds and cash management products [10]. - Despite the growth in the market, there is a contraction in the supply of quality assets, leading to a situation where the demand for high-quality assets exceeds supply, putting pressure on product yields [10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with firms innovating to differentiate their products, as even small yield advantages can significantly influence fund flows [10]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The introduction of floating fee rate products raises the bar for investment research and risk management capabilities within wealth management firms, as they must adapt to more complex product designs [12]. - The "interest-subsidized" model, while attractive for growth, may harm the interests of other investors and could lead to liquidity risks if not managed properly [11]. - Firms face challenges in educating investors about the complexities of floating fee structures, which may lead to misunderstandings and potential disputes [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing structural opportunities, leading to an accelerated influx of various funds, including individual investors, public funds, and insurance capital, which is positively impacting the brokerage sector [1][2][3] Individual Investors - In the first half of 2025, the number of new individual investor accounts reached 12.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of over 32% [1] Public Funds - The issuance quantity and scale of equity funds in the first half of 2025 increased by 67.5% and 180.2% year-on-year, respectively [1] Insurance Capital - Insurance companies have established or increased capital in private securities investment funds, with a total scale expected to reach 222 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Market Performance - As of July 8, 2025, major A-share indices have shown positive performance, with the Wande All A index up 7.30% and the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.35% year-to-date [1] Policy Environment - The new "National Nine Articles" in 2024 encourages dividends, reflecting a commitment from listed companies to shareholder returns and an improved capital market environment [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, aiming to optimize fee structures and enhance investor services [2] Macro Environment - With the domestic economic growth transitioning, the country has entered an era of deposit rates at "1.0%", prompting some savings to flow into the equity market [2] - The "deposit migration" phenomenon has been observed, with funds shifting from savings to investment products and the stock market since last year [2] Impact on Brokerage Sector - The influx of funds and increased trading activity are expected to benefit brokerage businesses, particularly in the growth of brokerage services [3] - The brokerage sector's core businesses, including proprietary trading, investment banking, asset management, and credit services, are likely to see synergistic growth due to market activity [3] - Overall, the revenue of the brokerage sector is closely tied to the performance of the A-share market, with anticipated growth in brokerage earnings as market conditions improve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market, reaching a new high of 3509 points, raises questions about whether it has entered a bull market and if genuine wealth opportunities are emerging [1] Group 1: Market Fundamentals for a Bull Market - A bull market requires sufficient external funds, which include both domestic and foreign investments [2] - Historical examples from the US show that external funds are crucial for bull markets, with significant inflows during past bull runs [2][3] - The current A-share market needs to attract retail and institutional investors, particularly focusing on the movement of household savings into the capital market [4] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the CSI 300 index is approximately 12.38, indicating it is in a low valuation range similar to previous bull market beginnings [5][6] - Historical data shows that the PE ratio tends to be at or below historical averages before the onset of bull markets, suggesting the current market may be in a similar phase [6] Group 3: Financial Environment and Policy - The openness of the financial environment and the relative freedom of capital flow are essential for a healthy market, with recent policies indicating a trend towards increased market openness [7] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the inclusion of RMB stock trading in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, signal a move towards greater financial integration [7] - The current financial strength of the domestic market is better positioned to handle external investments compared to previous years, which may support a more stable market environment [7][8] Group 4: Current Market Position - Despite the index reaching new highs, the A-share market is still considered to be in the early stages of a bull market, with significant potential for growth if external funds continue to flow in [8] - The presence of government support in the market provides a safety net, reducing the likelihood of a significant downturn in the near term [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market's total scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a 5.22% increase since the beginning of the year, indicating resilience amid market pressures [12] - Recent trends show a recovery in the yields of bank wealth management products, with cash management products recording a 7-day annualized yield of 1.48%, up 5 basis points week-on-week [16][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of QDII quotas, totaling 30.8 billion USD, aimed at enhancing the operational capacity of qualified domestic institutional investors [11] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued new QDII quotas to qualified domestic institutional investors, totaling 30.8 billion USD, to support healthy development in the foreign exchange market [11] - The banking wealth management market maintained a stable scale of 31 trillion yuan, driven by a "deposit migration" phenomenon due to a new round of deposit rate cuts [12] Peer Innovation Dynamics - 招银理财 has introduced a floating management fee model for its wealth management products, significantly reducing fees to 0.25% per year, which is lower than the conventional rates of 0.4%-0.6% [13] - 工银理财 participated in the cornerstone investment for the IPO of IFBH in Hong Kong, securing approximately 4 million USD, marking a significant move into the new consumption sector [14] - 交银理财 launched its first charitable wealth management product, successfully donating excess returns to a public welfare foundation [15] Yield Performance - The yields of various bank wealth management products have shown a general recovery, with cash management products and fixed-income products experiencing different degrees of yield increases [18][19] - The report notes that the credit spread has continued to narrow, remaining at historical low levels since September 2024, which may limit the attractiveness of credit investments [19] Net Value Tracking - The net value of bank wealth management products has a current break-even rate of 0.70%, which has increased by 0.26 percentage points week-on-week, indicating ongoing low levels [27][29] - The report emphasizes the relationship between the break-even rate and credit spreads, noting that a sustained increase in credit spreads could pressure the break-even rate further [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in the attractiveness of large-denomination time deposits in the context of falling interest rates, leading to a shift in consumer investment behavior towards more appealing financial products like wealth management and insurance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Changes - Major banks have reduced interest rates on large-denomination time deposits, with rates now entering the "1" era, marking the first large-scale adjustment since 2025 [4]. - As of July 8, 2025, the interest rates for large-denomination time deposits at major banks are generally below 2%, with some rates even matching or falling below those of regular savings products [5][7]. Market Response - The decline in interest rates has led to a noticeable trend of "deposit migration," where funds are moving from traditional deposits to more attractive investment options such as wealth management and insurance products [2][10]. - The demand for large-denomination time deposits has decreased significantly, with fewer customers inquiring about these products [4][10]. Product Availability - Many banks have removed long-term large-denomination time deposits from their offerings, focusing instead on shorter-term products ranging from 1 month to 2 years [1][5]. - The availability of 5-year large-denomination time deposits has virtually disappeared, and even 3-year products are limited in supply [5][6]. Investment Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is reflected in the increasing popularity of wealth management products, with the market size surpassing 31.3 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. - Financial advisors are now recommending products based on clients' liquidity preferences, with a focus on short-term fixed-income investments for those requiring higher liquidity [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The high-yield large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) that were once popular among banks for attracting deposits are gradually disappearing from the market as deposit rates have entered the "1" era, leading to a shift in investment preferences among consumers [1][6]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - The current interest rates for personal large-denomination CDs have dropped to the "1" range, with some banks offering rates that are on par with or even lower than regular deposit products [1][2]. - Major banks, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have removed long-term large-denomination CDs from their offerings, focusing instead on shorter-term products ranging from 1 month to 2 years [1][2]. - The Guangzhou Bank is offering a 3-year large-denomination CD at an interest rate of 1.75%, but the availability is limited, with only 8 million yuan left for sale [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of "deposit migration," where funds are moving from traditional deposits to more attractive investment options such as wealth management and insurance products [1][6]. - The demand for large-denomination CDs has decreased significantly, with banks reporting fewer inquiries from customers [2][5]. - The interest rates for regular fixed-term deposit products are comparable to those of large-denomination CDs, making them less appealing to consumers [2][4]. Group 3: Banking Strategies and Economic Context - Banks are adjusting their strategies to lower funding costs and optimize their asset-liability structures in response to narrowing net interest margins [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in consumer investment behavior [6]. - Financial experts suggest that in a low-interest-rate environment, banks should focus on offering low-risk, stable investment products to meet changing consumer preferences [7].

Core Insights - A silent wealth defense battle is unfolding in China, triggered by a record increase in household deposits of 9.22 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating underlying financial instability [1] Group 1: Deposit Migration - The recent interest rate cuts have pushed three-year fixed deposit rates below 1.8%, leading to a significant decline in interest income for depositors [2] - The average growth rate of M2 money supply over the past five years has been 9.5%, causing a visible erosion of savings in banks [2] Group 2: Wealth Management Market - In April 2025, the scale of wealth management products surged by approximately 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching a historical peak of 31.1 trillion yuan, with an enticing annualized yield of 2.4% [2] - Despite the allure of higher returns, there are numerous cases of losses in wealth management products, highlighting the risks involved [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - A total of 8.73 million new stock accounts were opened in the first five months of 2025, indicating a significant influx of retail investors into the stock market [4] - The contrasting experiences of investors reveal the volatility of the stock market, with some achieving substantial gains while others face significant losses [4] Group 4: Gold as a Safe Haven - In Q1 2025, the consumption of gold bars and coins surged by 29.81% to 138 tons, while gold jewelry consumption plummeted by 26.85%, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [6] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons during the same period, reinforcing the trend of gold accumulation among the public [6] Group 5: Consumer Spending and Real Estate - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, yet underlying data suggests a decline in household spending [6] - The real estate market shows conflicting trends, with a 2.1% decrease in property sales but a record high in new personal housing loans of 567.2 billion yuan in May [6] Group 6: Corporate Lending Issues - New loans to enterprises and institutions amounted to 8.66 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, but much of this funding is not effectively reaching the real economy [8] - Reports indicate that loans are often used for payroll and debt repayment rather than productive investments [8] Group 7: Deposit Insurance Concerns - The leaked draft of new deposit insurance regulations has caused public anxiety, leading individuals to split large deposits into multiple accounts to mitigate perceived risks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market has maintained a scale of 31 trillion yuan, growing by 5.22% since the beginning of the year, despite challenges such as declining yields and regulatory pressures on valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Scale and Growth Factors - As of the end of June, the bank wealth management market's scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan, slightly down from 31.5 trillion yuan at the end of May, which was a record high [1]. - The growth in the first half of the year was driven by multiple factors, including a bullish bond market that boosted fixed-income product yields and the seasonal influx of funds at quarter-end [1][2]. - The decline in deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1%, has made wealth management products more attractive, leading to a noticeable "deposit migration" phenomenon [2]. Group 2: Performance and Yield Trends - Fixed-income products, which account for 97% of the market, had an annualized yield of 2.84%, while cash management products yielded 1.43%, both exceeding the deposit rates during the same period [2]. - Equity wealth management products faced significant pressure, with an average annualized yield of 4.1%, influenced by stock market volatility [3]. - There has been a widespread downward adjustment in performance benchmarks for wealth management products, with many products' benchmarks falling below deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Challenges - Regulatory changes have imposed stricter requirements on valuation methods previously used by wealth management companies, challenging the "high yield, low volatility" business model [4]. - The pressure to maintain scale and net value is increasing, with expectations that the growth in wealth management scale may not match last year's performance [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The bank wealth management market is expected to face dual pressures from interest rate cuts and valuation adjustments in the second half of the year [6]. - Wealth management companies are innovating products to balance yield and volatility, with strategies including increasing equity and derivative investments to enhance returns [6]. - The industry consensus is to expand equity-linked wealth management products, although challenges remain due to traditional clients' low risk tolerance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market has maintained a scale of 31.22 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 5.22% compared to the beginning of the year, despite challenges such as declining yields and regulatory pressures on valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of June, the banking wealth management market's scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan, slightly down from 31.5 trillion yuan at the end of May, which was a record high [1]. - The growth in the first half of the year was driven by multiple factors, including a bullish bond market that boosted fixed-income product yields and seasonal capital flows [1][2]. - The average annualized yield for fixed-income products was 2.84%, while cash management products had a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.43%, both exceeding the prevailing deposit rates [2]. Group 2: Yield Trends - Equity wealth management products faced significant pressure, with an average annualized yield of 4.1%, influenced by stock market volatility [3]. - In June, numerous wealth management products announced downward adjustments to their performance benchmarks, with some benchmarks falling below the deposit rates [3]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income products has shown a downward trend since early 2022, indicating a persistent decline [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory changes have imposed stricter requirements on valuation methods previously used by wealth management companies, particularly regarding smoothing mechanisms [4]. - The traditional business model of "high yield, low volatility" in banking wealth management is under significant pressure, leading to challenges in maintaining scale and net value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking wealth management market is expected to face dual pressures from interest rate cuts and valuation adjustments in the second half of the year [6]. - Wealth management companies are likely to innovate products focusing on low volatility and diversified themes to adapt to the changing environment [6]. - There is a growing consensus in the industry to expand equity-linked wealth management products, although challenges remain due to traditional clients' low risk tolerance [7].