1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - **Monetary**: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Data**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - **Data**: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **US Monetary Policy**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - **Inflation Data**: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].

市场对美欧协议的冷淡反应，标志着特朗普贸易政策激发市场剧烈波动的能力持续衰减。4月2日宣布加 征关税计划引发的抛售过后，市场逐渐意识到最初税率只是谈判筹码，15%的关税水平才是现状，后续 波动随之减弱。 智通财经APP注意到，尽管特朗普称之为"史上最重磅协议"，但这份美欧贸易协定未能提振市场风险偏 好，反映出每份新协议带来的边际效应正在递减。 周一的全球市场反应平淡：欧洲股市与欧元小幅下跌，美股基本持平。相比之下，上周美日贸易协定公 布时，日美股市均大幅上涨。 虽然投资者的注意力正在从特朗普的贸易协议转移，但仍有能搅动市场的协议——美中贸易协定。美国 商务部长卢特尼克表示，延长现行贸易休战90天是两国斯德哥尔摩会谈最可能的结果。 Global X Management投资策略师Billy Leung指出，"市场有些审美疲劳了，""别忘了我们正面临多重不 确定性：美中谈判进入第二天、更多贸易协议待公布、美联储决议在即、还有美股巨头财报。" 富达国际香港投资组合经理Taosha Wang在接受采访时表示，"贸易头条真正撼动市场的可能性已显著降 低，""我认为与关税相关的尾部风险已大幅减弱。" 美欧协议未能刺激风险 ...

据外媒报道，日本谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，贸易协议在一定程度上缓解了不确定性。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

智通财经7月29日电，日本谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，需关注关税带来的下行风险，贸易协议在一定程度 上缓解了不确定性。 ...

日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正：贸易协议在一定程度上缓解了不确定性。 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

#报告 TS Lombard点评美国欧盟贸易协议：15%的关税是真的，剩下的都是假象。 https://t.co/1UKkZhbpODNone (@None):None ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

央视网消息：美国总统特朗普和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩7月27日共同宣布，美欧达成新贸易协议。特朗普称，新协议包括美国 将对欧盟输美产品征收15%的关税、欧盟将对美增加6000亿美元投资及购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源等。7月28日，法国、匈牙 利、瑞典、俄罗斯等多国均对此表示批评或担忧。 匈牙利总理欧尔班在28日播出的节目中对美欧贸易协议明确予以批评。欧尔班认为，欧美协定比英美协定更为糟糕。他对欧盟将 投资美国、向美方购买军事装备和能源表示强烈质疑。因为欧盟委员会既没有资金也没有军队。 瑞典国际发展合作与外贸大臣杜萨表示，欧盟与美国达成的关税协议将使美国对欧盟征收的关税达到近70年来的最高水平，他因 此对美欧经贸前景感到悲观。他同时表示，欧盟应该寻求与亚洲和拉美国家签署自贸协议，以对冲对美出口减少造成的损失。 另据瑞典媒体28日报道，瑞典财政大臣斯万特松表示，欧盟与美国的协议对瑞典经济构成不利影响，可能导致需求下降、经济增 长放缓，并增加失业风险。她强调，这项协议不仅对瑞典经济不利，也将影响美国及全球经济。 同一天，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，美国和欧盟的协议将导致欧洲的进一步去工业化，导致投资从欧洲流向美国。能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to the strengthening of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1][2] - Gold prices recently fell to a near three-week low, trading around $3310 per ounce, with a significant drop of $138 from a recent high of $3438 [2] - The market is currently volatile, with expectations for significant price movements in the coming days due to upcoming economic data releases [1][2] Group 2 - The US crude oil price is trading around $66.97 per barrel, having increased nearly 3% recently, influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and geopolitical developments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that crude oil may have some upward potential, with a focus on resistance levels around $69 [3] - Day trading strategies for both gold and oil suggest short positions for gold and long positions for oil, with specific target prices and stop-loss levels outlined [3][4]