证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周指数震荡走强，沪指企稳 4100 点。从周 K 线来看，上证指 数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，创业板指下跌 0.34%，科创 50 指数上涨 2.62%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.60%。个股板块涨多跌少，建 筑材料、石油石化、钢铁和基础化工等板块涨幅靠前，医药生物、 食品饮料、非银金融、通信和银行等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固，春季行情有望延续 从本周市场来看： ◆风险提示： 海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外 需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高 利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收 缩引发风险事件，对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。 | 市场近一周走势 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 周收盘(点) | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | | 4136.16 | 0.84% | | 深证成指 | | 14439.66 | 1.11% | | 创业板 | | 3349.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses six fiscal and financial support policies aimed at stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending, utilizing tools such as fiscal interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk-sharing mechanisms to lower financing costs for enterprises and reduce the consumption burden on residents [1][2]. Policy Content: Three Additions and Three Optimizations - Three new policies include: - Implementation of interest subsidy policy for loans to small and micro enterprises, with a 1.5% annualized subsidy for fixed asset loans, capped at 50 million per entity, focusing on key industries such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment, with a total amount of 500 billion over two years, supporting loans for equipment purchases and business upgrades, including mid-sized enterprises for the first time [2]. - Creation of a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, providing credit enhancement support and loss compensation for bond issuances [3]. - Three optimized policies include: - Expansion of the equipment update loan interest subsidy policy to include more sectors and extend the support period, maintaining a 1.5% subsidy [4]. - Extension of the service industry loan interest subsidy policy until December 31, 2026, increasing the loan cap from 1 million to 10 million [4]. - Optimization of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, extending the support period and including credit card installment payments, with a 1% subsidy rate [4]. Policy Effectiveness: Expanding Demand and Credit Expansion - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to significantly increase in scale from 60-90 billion in 2025 to 1,000-1,300 billion in 2026, with specific allocations for small and micro enterprises, equipment updates, service industry loans, and personal consumption loans [6][8]. - The combination of fiscal interest subsidies and fiscal subsidies is anticipated to effectively stimulate investment and consumption, with a notable impact on sectors like equipment upgrades and durable consumer goods [7][8]. Credit Impact: Demand Release and Differentiated Effects - The policy is expected to improve financing willingness and release credit demand, with differing effects between enterprises and residents [9]. - For enterprises, the policy is projected to significantly boost medium and long-term loans, with estimated savings of 1.75% in financing costs due to combined interest subsidies and structural policy rate cuts [10]. - For residents, despite the expanded support for non-housing consumption loans, conservative financial behavior may limit the effectiveness of the policy, leading to a focus on refinancing existing high-interest loans rather than increasing new loans [10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing comprehensive measures to enhance consumer capacity, improve supply, and unleash consumption potential, while also supporting technological innovation and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [1] Group 1: Consumer Support Measures - The PBOC has allocated 500 billion yuan for consumption and pension refinancing to encourage financial institutions to innovate financial products [1] - Efforts are being made to improve consumer financial services and facilitate payment services [1] - A one-time personal credit repair policy is being implemented to enhance the consumer financial environment [1] Group 2: Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC has increased the refinancing quota for technological innovation and technical transformation from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, including support for high R&D investment private SMEs [1] - A risk-sharing tool for bonds related to technological innovation and private enterprises has been established to provide refinancing support [1] - The development of a "technology board" in the bond market is being promoted [1] Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC has increased the refinancing and rediscount quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan, with a separate allocation of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprise refinancing [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to issue financial bonds for small and micro enterprises [1] - The credit enhancement system for private SMEs is being improved, leveraging government financing guarantees and information sharing [1]

1月23日金融一线消息，据金融时报，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜表示，在扩大内需、支持消 费方面，中国人民银行围绕支持增强消费能力，提升消费供给，释放消费潜力等方面综合施策，满足消 费领域多样化金融需求中国。中国人民银行专设5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，激励引导金融机构创 新金融产品。提升消费金融服务水平，持续推进支付服务便利化，实施好一次性个人信用修复政策，改 善消费金融环境。支持符合条件的金融机构发行金融债券，提升消费领域资金供给能力。 责任编辑：秦艺 责任编辑：秦艺 1月23日金融一线消息，据金融时报，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜表示，在扩大内需、支持消 费方面，中国人民银行围绕支持增强消费能力，提升消费供给，释放消费潜力等方面综合施策，满足消 费领域多样化金融需求中国。中国人民银行专设5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，激励引导金融机构创 新金融产品。提升消费金融服务水平，持续推进支付服务便利化，实施好一次性个人信用修复政策，改 善消费金融环境。支持符合条件的金融机构发行金融债券，提升消费领域资金供给能力。 ...

2026年至2030年 扩大内需战略实施方案酝酿出台 2026年，宏观政策的发力点将放在做强国内大循环，全方位扩大国内需求。相关部门将研究制定出台2026年至2030年扩大内需战略实施方案，努力实现供 需互促、循环升级。 这是记者从20日举行的国新办发布会获得的消息。据介绍，为了重点提振服务消费，今年将推动实施服务业扩能提质行动，推出一批具有含金量的政策； 同时，将着力增强居民消费能力，目前有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划。 内需已经成为拉动经济增长的稳定锚。2025年，内需对经济增长的贡献率超过67%，其中消费贡献率达到了52%。不过也要看到，当前我国经济运行中仍 存在供强需弱的问题。"当前，我国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问题。"国家发展改革委副主任王昌林说，要推动供需 在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 "通过一系列举措来扩大内需、提振消费，将促进中国经济实现在更高水平上的供需平衡，畅通产业竞争优势新突破与消费提质升级的循环，促进民生福 利的最终改善。"罗志恒说。 记者：汪子旭 罗志恒表示，我国 ...

新华财经北京1月23日电据商务部官网消息，1月22日至23日，全国市场运行和消费促进工作会议在北京 召开。会议总结2025年和"十四五"时期市场运行和消费促进工作，分析消费形势，交流经验做法，部署 2026年重点工作。商务部副部长盛秋平出席并讲话。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好市场运行和消费促进工作意义重大。各级商务主管部门要 坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，认真编制扩大消费"十五五"规划，坚持"政策+活动"双轮驱动，深入实施 提振消费专项行动，打造"购在中国"品牌，推进建设强大国内市场。推动商品消费扩容升级，提质增效 实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家居等大宗消费。加快培育服务消费新增长点，释放服务消费潜力。 培育壮大新型消费，积极推进首发经济，发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费。创新多元化消费场景， 深化国际消费中心城市建设，推进国际化消费环境建设试点工作，大力发展离境退税。组织开展"购在 中国"城市专场和地方站活动，办好"乐购新春"春节特别活动，开展好有奖发票试点工作。做好生活必 需品市场监测和保供工作。 （文章来源：新华财经） 会议指出，2025年，各级商务主管部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决 ...

Core Insights - The national market operation and consumption promotion work conference was held in Beijing from January 22 to 23, emphasizing the importance of market operation and consumption promotion for the year 2026, which marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - The conference highlighted the need for local commerce departments to focus on expanding domestic demand and to develop a comprehensive plan for consumption expansion during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][3] Summary by Categories Market Performance - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 50 trillion yuan [2] - The contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was 52.0%, indicating its role as a key driver of economic development [2] Consumption Trends - Sales related to the "trade-in" program amounted to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.5%, reflecting an improvement in service consumption quality and expansion [2] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.2%, showcasing the rapid development of new consumption models [2] Strategic Initiatives - The conference called for a dual approach of "policy + activities" to drive consumption, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the promotion of the "Buy in China" brand [3] - There is a focus on upgrading and expanding commodity consumption, particularly in large categories like automobiles and home goods [3] - New growth points for service consumption are to be cultivated, with an emphasis on digital, green, and health consumption [3] - The development of diverse consumption scenarios and the establishment of international consumption centers are also prioritized [3]

Core Insights - The national market operation and consumption promotion work conference was held in Beijing on January 22-23, summarizing the market operation and consumption promotion work for 2025 and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, analyzing consumption trends, sharing experiences, and deploying key tasks for 2026 [1] Group 1 - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 50 trillion yuan, with consumption contributing 52.0% to GDP growth, reinforcing its role as the main engine of economic development [1] - The sales of products related to the "old-for-new" policy amounted to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [1] - Service consumption saw a quality upgrade, with retail sales of services growing by 5.5%, while online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.2% [1] Group 2 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," making the work of market operation and consumption promotion highly significant [2] - Business authorities are urged to focus on expanding domestic demand, develop a "15th Five-Year Plan" for consumption expansion, and implement a dual-driven approach of "policy + activities" to boost consumption [2] - Initiatives include promoting large-scale consumption in sectors like automobiles and home goods, fostering new growth points in service consumption, and enhancing new types of consumption such as digital, green, and health consumption [2]

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为59.23%，石油石化行业占比为32.60%，随着供给侧坚持去产能和"反内 卷"，同时坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 截至10:46，石化ETF（159731）跌0.29%，持仓股中，东方盛虹、卫星化学、联泓新科等涨幅居前。从 资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续12个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"5.34亿元。石化ETF最新 份额达8.13亿份，最新规模8.32亿元，均创成立以来新高。 金融街证券首席经济学家张一表示，针对"2026年'十五五'开局之年最看好的产业"这一问题，最看好化 工产业。张一指出，首先化工产业是中国竞争格局最好的行业，既有中石化等央企主导，也有地方国资 和优秀民营企业参与，同时还有大量海外化工巨头向中国转移产能。其次，该产业是对"Know- How"（技术诀窍）要求最高的产业之一，经过二十多年的城镇化和工业化发展，中国化工产业在成本 和效率上已形成极强的国际竞争力。此外，当前化工产业估值相对合理，且可能正处在投资周期的底 部。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the articles is on China's strategy to expand domestic demand, which is seen as essential for economic growth and stability, with a projected retail sales total exceeding 50 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][2] - Domestic demand has become the main driving force for China's economic growth, contributing an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, with final consumption expenditure expected to contribute 52% in 2025, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year [1][2] - The shift towards service consumption is notable, with service spending projected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption in 2025, indicating a structural optimization in consumer behavior [1] Group 2 - China's consumer spending is currently at about 40%, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries, which presents a vast investment opportunity in new urbanization, technology industries, and improving livelihoods [2] - The implementation of policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods is expected to benefit over 360 million people, showcasing the market's potential and the effectiveness of policy measures [2] - China aims to transition from being the "world's factory" to becoming a "world market," enhancing its role as a major consumer market, which will create new opportunities for global cooperation [2][3]