Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrated strong vitality and resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, with macro policies expected to continue to support growth in the second half [2][3] Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][3] - Analysts suggest potential new measures such as interest rate cuts, increasing fiscal deficit ratios, and enhancing special bond issuance to boost domestic demand and counter external demand slowdown [2][3][4] Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, including support for service consumption and improving consumer environments [10][11] - The government plans to issue 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption initiatives, with a focus on promoting new consumption models and enhancing consumer experiences [10][11] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for expanding high-level opening up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with specific support for foreign trade enterprises facing challenges [12][13] - Data showed that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [13] Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly regarding local government debt, while promoting urban renewal and infrastructure safety [6][7] - Emphasis was placed on balancing risk prevention with development, with a focus on eliminating hidden debts and ensuring the stability of financing platforms [7][8] Capital Market Development - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, with reforms to attract international capital and more investors [8] - Key initiatives include promoting financial openness and deepening investment reforms to support long-term capital inflow [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, slightly down but still above the critical point; medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points but below the critical point; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points and below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates expansion; the new orders index is at 40.4%, down by 0.8 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points but still above the critical point; the construction index is at 50.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the service index is at 50.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The CD index is at 45.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand [2] - The comprehensive PMI output is at 50.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to address internal and external shocks [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand, with final consumption contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [4] - The meeting also pointed out the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [5] Group 4: Capital Market - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies to attract investments [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown positive momentum, surpassing key levels of 3500 and 3600 points since April [6] - There is an expectation for a long-term bullish trend in the capital market, driven by increased investment from institutional investors and the inclusion of innovative companies in the market [6]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on July 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3615.72 points, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell to 11203.03 points, down 0.77% [1][10] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 14 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in the oil and petrochemical, steel, and food and beverage sectors, while comprehensive finance, electric equipment and new energy, and computer sectors faced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 18710 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - On July 30, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, the S&P 500 down 0.12%, and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - Precious metals and copper concepts saw significant declines, with U.S. gold prices dropping over 7% [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but showed rare internal disagreements, leading to a sharp drop in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 68% to 45% [2] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and set the agenda for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [12][20] - The National Development and Reform Commission is soliciting public opinions on guidelines for government investment funds [24][25] - The National Health Commission announced measures to reduce the costs of childbirth, childcare, and education, and to improve maternity leave policies [27][28] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time [29] Driving Factors - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support economic growth, including active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [11][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing domestic demand and promoting consumption while ensuring the stability of employment and businesses [16][18] - The focus on technological innovation and the integration of industry and technology was reiterated as a key driver for future economic development [17][22]

宏观 高质量发展与短期经济增长有机融合 ——2025 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议解读 "立破并举"推动供给体系和效率明显提升。从"立"的方面看，科技 创新是摆脱同质化竞争的最优解，也是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的 有力支撑。会议提出，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技 创新和产业创新深度融合发展。另一方面，由于当前"内卷"导致的过剩与 传统意义上的产能过剩在形成原因、表现形式上有较大区别，因此在解决举 措上不能再依赖行政手段，搞"一刀切"。从会议内容看，更侧重市场化法 制化手段进行调控。会议提出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞 争秩序持续优化。规范地方招商引资行为。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推 进重点行业产能治理。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力，增强灵活性预见性。目前看，全年完成 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 2025 年 7 月 31 日 宏观研究/事件点评 相关报告： 投资要点： 2025 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议是在我国外贸环境不确定、国内有效需 求不足、"内卷式"竞争等复杂局面下召开的一次十分重要的会议。会议客 观分析 ...

Summary of Politburo Meeting Content and Review 1. Meeting Summaries - **2025/7/30 Meeting**: China's economy has made new achievements in high - quality development, with major economic indicators performing well, new - quality productivity actively developing, and reform and opening - up deepening. However, it still faces risks and challenges. The focus is on maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation to achieve the "14th Five - Year Plan" finalization [2]. - **2025/4/25 Meeting**: The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation. Policies should be more actively implemented, and efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and deal with external impacts [2]. - **2024/12/9 Meeting**: The economy has run steadily with progress, and the main goals of economic and social development for the year will be smoothly achieved. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, promote high - quality development, and lay a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]. 2. Policy Directions Macroeconomic Policy - **General Tone**: All meetings emphasize the need for proactive macro - policies. In 2025/7/30 and 2025/4/25, it is about implementing and making full use of active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In 2024/12/9, it focuses on super - conventional counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - **Fiscal Policy**: All meetings stress positive fiscal policies, including accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Meetings advocate maintaining liquidity, with 2025/4/25 specifically mentioning timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and all meetings highlighting support for key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. Industry Policy - **New - Quality Productivity**: Promote the development of new - quality productivity through technological innovation and industry - innovation integration, and cultivate emerging pillar industries [2]. - **Competition Order**: Regulate competition order, manage over - capacity in key industries, and standardize local investment promotion [2]. Domestic Demand Expansion - **Consumption**: Stimulate consumption through various means such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, developing service consumption, and implementing consumption promotion campaigns [2]. - **Investment**: Promote "two - major" construction, expand effective investment, and stimulate private investment [2]. Risk Resolution - All meetings stress the need to prevent and resolve key - area risks, especially local government debt risks, and ensure no systemic risks [2]. Other Key Areas - **Reform and Opening - up**: Deepen reform, expand high - level opening - up, and stabilize foreign trade and investment [2]. - **Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers**: Strengthen the "three rural" work, stabilize agricultural product prices, and promote rural development [2]. - **Employment**: Implement employment - priority policies to promote the employment of key groups [2]. - **Real Estate**: Promote the stable development of the real estate market and build a new development model [2]. - **Capital Market**: Strengthen the attractiveness and stability of the capital market [2].

就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 习近平强调，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思 维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。下半年，要在宏观政策上持续发力、适 时加力，重点做好全方位扩大内需、坚定不移深化改革扩大开放、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发 展、持续防范化解重点领域风险、多措并举保障改善民生等工作。 习近平指出，上半年，各民主党派中央、全国工商联和无党派人士紧扣中共中央重大决策部署，聚焦经 济社会发展中的一些重点难点问题深入调研、建言献策，积极开展民主监督，体现了在中国共产党领导 下团结合作的政治担当和实干精神。他代表中共中央向大家表示衷心感谢。 习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出两点希望。一是统一思想认识，凝聚广泛共识。深 刻理解把握中共中央关于当前经济形势的分析判断和经济工作的指导思想、大政方针、重要部署，多做 宣传政策、解疑释惑、理顺情绪、凝聚共识的工作，汇聚起团结奋斗的强大正能量。二是立足自身优 势，推动高质量发展。结合履职选准调研题目，统筹用好各类资源和专业智库，提出更 ...

文章称，中美在经贸领域拥有广泛共同利益和广阔合作空间。中国高质量发展和高水平对外开放不断推 进，为中美互利合作创造了更多机遇。例如，在制造业领域，因为中国产业发展的配套全、生态优、动 力足，更多美国企业选择扩大在华布局，以整合两国要素优势，提升企业全球竞争力。又比如，在消费 领域，中国正将扩大内需视为战略之举，多措并举积极扩大进口，美国企业是重要受益者。 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - Macro policies will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, with a call for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, especially in the context of a complex external environment, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [6][7] - There is a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in expanding goods consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - Investment is identified as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on high-quality infrastructure construction and stimulating private investment [10] Group 3 - The meeting underscored the necessity of deepening reforms to drive economic growth, with a focus on technological innovation, optimizing market competition, and improving the business environment for private enterprises [11][12] - High-level opening-up is emphasized to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and enhance their competitiveness [12][13] Group 4 - Continuous efforts are required to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability, to ensure sustainable economic development [14][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of ensuring social welfare and employment, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, while maintaining safety in production and food supply [17]

Economic Policy and Strategy - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus will be on promoting consumption to effectively release domestic demand potential, with an allocation of 138 billion yuan for the "old for new" consumption subsidy program [3] - Policies will be developed to support service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial policies to stimulate personal consumption loans [3] Market and Competition - The importance of improving supply quality through deepening reforms and stimulating market vitality is highlighted, particularly in the context of transitioning to new growth drivers [3] - The establishment of a unified national market is essential to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [3] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4] - The combination of short-term goals and long-term tasks, driven by policy tools and deepening reforms, is necessary to ensure the completion of annual economic and social development goals [4]