Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the specter of stagflation in the U.S. is influencing global financial markets, prompting investors to urgently adjust their asset allocations to address the dual threats of economic slowdown and high inflation due to tariff impacts [1][2] - Approximately 70% of global investors expect stagflation in the next 12 months, with recent data indicating a significant slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment, alongside higher-than-target inflation rates [2] - Despite concerns about stagflation, global stock markets remain near historical highs, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks associated with stagflation [2] Group 2 - In a stagflation environment, inflation-hedging assets are becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with gold being highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset [3] - In the first half of 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached 230 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, indicating a growing interest in gold as a protective investment [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a phase of horizontal consolidation at high levels, with a potential downward trend forming [4] - The previous trading day saw gold prices retreat after a brief rise, maintaining a bearish outlook as prices remain below key moving averages [4] - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3320 and $3311, while resistance levels are noted at $3338 and $3345 [4]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a "pre-event" atmosphere with the dollar rising, while gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks are showing limited movement near historical highs, indicating a potential adjustment in positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased to 80%, down from 100% previously [3] - Analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to deliver a "hawkish signal" during his speech, with concerns about inflation and slowing employment suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [4][5] Group 2 - Citi's dollar positioning indicator has shifted from a slight short to neutral, indicating that investors currently lack a clear net long or short bias, suggesting a market that is beginning to accept a more "hawkish" Fed [6] - The market is not waiting for surprises but is instead digesting the risks of potential disappointment from Powell's speech, with expectations that he may use ambiguous language to prompt market speculation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.62% from August 11 to August 15, ranking among the top in all primary industries [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The metal new materials sub-sector rose by 7.67%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 5.31%. Energy metals and small metals sectors saw gains of 2.79% and 1.73%, respectively. In contrast, the precious metals sector declined by 3.45% [2][3] - As of August 15, copper prices were reported at $9,760 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08% week-on-week, while Shanghai copper was priced at 79,060 yuan per ton, up 0.73% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in Chile, including a mine closure due to an earthquake and damage from a collapse, are supporting copper prices despite a lack of demand improvement during the off-season [3] - The aluminum sector is facing a continuous increase in social inventory, with a 3.91% rise to 58.75 million tons. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.015 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [4][5] Group 3: Inflation and Precious Metals - U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured gold prices. As of August 15, COMEX gold closed at $3,381.70 per ounce, down 2.21% week-on-week [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose significantly, suggesting that tariff-related import costs are increasing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the tariff ceasefire between the US and China for 90 days until November 10 is a strategic move to allow for potential high-level discussions during the APEC summit, reflecting the delicate balance of negotiations and economic pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Ceasefire and Economic Context - The US Treasury Secretary had previously communicated the intention to extend the tariff pause, but the signing by Trump was delayed, indicating political sensitivities around appearing to compromise with China [4]. - Recent employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm jobs, with only 73,000 added last month, far below expectations, and a revised total loss of 258,000 jobs over previous months, highlighting economic strain [4][6]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years, with job losses in manufacturing and retail sectors, suggesting a deteriorating economic environment that pressures the administration to avoid further tariff escalations [4][6]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Future Negotiations - Trump's reluctance to take responsibility for economic issues is evident as he shifts blame for poor employment statistics, indicating a desire to maintain political capital while managing economic fallout [6]. - The potential for a framework agreement during the APEC summit could lead to an extension or partial cancellation of tariffs, but failure to reach an agreement may result in increased geopolitical tensions and pressure on China [10]. - Analysts suggest that Trump may be inclined to make concessions during negotiations to maintain a favorable public image, despite the underlying reality of the US conceding to China [10].

智通财经APP获悉，就在刚刚，市场对于美联储今年剩余时间的降息预期遭受重大打击。北京时间周四晚 间公布的美国PPI通胀数据显示出，美国7月PPI环比意外加速上升，意外创下三年来最大涨幅，表明企业正 在转嫁与关税相关联的更高进口成本。随着特朗普政府的关税政策逐渐开始对于通胀产生显著影响，美国 CPI、PPI与PCE通胀数据可能正在迈向新一轮的上行轨迹。 报告显示，随着特朗普关税政策愈发清晰，尽管上半年需求相对走软，美国企业仍然积极调整商品与服务 的定价，以帮助抵消与更高美国关税相关联的成本效应。美国PPI通胀数据发布后，美国三大股指期货下 跌，各期限的美国国债收益率因通胀预期大幅升温以及降息预期大举降温而迈向上升轨迹。 美国企业们将在多大程度上将关税负担转嫁给消费者，将是市场界定美联储利率路径的关键。尽管美联储 官员们普遍预计进口税将在今年下半年推动通胀显著走高，但他们对这究竟是一次性调整还是更持久的通 胀现象看法不一，甚至一些官员开始担忧令美联储货币政策左右为难的宏观经济形势出现——那就是滞 胀。 剔除能源和食品的核心PPI指标方面，环比与同比增幅同样大超市场预期，7月核心PPI环比增长0.9%，市场 预期为 ...

本周美国唯一重磅数据——7月CPI公布后，重新定下了美元短线疲惫的基调，因为市场几乎可以确认美联储9月降息会成定局。与此同时，英镑得以在非美 货币中崭露头角，兑美元升至近三周高位，昨日在美国通胀温和的同时，英国的就业市场意外带来了惊喜。 央行警告称9月份通胀率将达到4%——这一数字将是其目标的两倍，且比11月的下一次预测提前几周。英国央行还暗示，将在下个月的年度评估中放缓所谓 的量化紧缩步伐，并警告称长期债券市场出现紧张迹象。 英国国家统计局报告显示，7月就业人数减少8353人，为今年1月以来最小降幅，降幅不仅小于经济学家预期的2万人，周二公布的数据还下修了前几个月的 失业人数，表明劳动力市场或许已开始企稳。截至6月的三个月里，英国失业率维持在4.7%的四年高点，而剔除奖金后，私营部门薪资增长率从4.9%小幅降 至4.8%。 上周英国央行决议进行了最新的降息，为一年内第五次下调关键利率，使借贷成本降至两年多以来的最低水平，但是却发出了相对鹰派的信号。由于最先的 投票未能达成共识（5票赞成降息，4票赞成维持利率不变），英国央行不得不进行史无前例的第二次投票，才最终将利率下调25个基点。 这种情况表明，利率制定者 ...

Macro News - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal divisions, with some board members advocating for a shift away from the unclear "potential inflation" indicator to focus more on overall inflation and inflation expectations, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October [1] Market Analysis - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon conclude, which could benefit risk assets while negatively impacting safe-haven assets [2] - U.S. July core CPI inflation rate has increased due to import tariffs raising commodity prices, but the potential downward revision of non-farm employment numbers from May to July suggests a "stagflation" scenario, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, October, and December [2] Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, while easing market risk sentiment ahead of the U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting has led to a high-low fluctuation in gold prices [3] - International gold prices closed at $3,355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%, with an intraday high of $3,370; domestic gold futures prices are experiencing frequent fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [3] Investment Strategy - It is suggested to construct a bull spread using call options when prices pull back to key support levels, effectively lowering the cost of long positions [4] Silver Market Dynamics - A weak U.S. dollar is supporting silver prices, along with continued inflows into ETFs; however, weak industrial demand makes the market susceptible to fluctuations driven by investor sentiment [5] - International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, reaching a nearly three-week high, with domestic silver prices following the international trend [5] - In the short term, silver prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, but there is overall upward potential, suggesting the use of bull spread strategies to capture segment opportunities [5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but slightly below the market expectation of 2.72%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.3% and above the expected 0.16%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.9% and the market expectation of 3.04%[2] Key Contributors and Trends - The high CPI in July was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and clothing prices, while energy and rent prices saw a significant decline[2] - The market has adjusted its interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of three rate cuts this year increasing significantly, although the company maintains a view of only one cut[2] Economic Indicators - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%[2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 115,000[6] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI's rise was mainly due to service price increases, with core services up by 0.3% month-on-month, while core goods remained stable at 0.2%[7] - The rental prices, a significant component of CPI, showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, down from the previous 3.8%[6] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns about potential second-round inflation risks due to new tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, which could affect inflation expectations and trade prospects[2][6] - The ongoing high inflation and slowing economic growth signal potential stagflation risks in the U.S. economy[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer - end inflation in the US, but due to the weakening of the US employment market, the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts. Coupled with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. The support and resistance levels for different precious metal products are also provided [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 774.71 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 7.31 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 32,602.00, and the open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 32,602.00 on 2025 - 08 - 13, with a change of - 182.00 compared to the previous day and 864.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 207,458.00 [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,407.00, with a change of 7.40 compared to the previous day and - 28.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 17,739.00, and the open interest was - 7,223.00 [1]. - International gold (London gold spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 3,343.30 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.90 compared to the previous day and 21.10 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 9,300.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 42.00 compared to the previous day and 113.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 415,237.00, and the open interest was 365,333.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: The trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 302,236.00, with a change of 124,448.00 compared to the previous day and 74,550.00 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 3,541,500.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 38.55 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.71 compared to the previous day and 0.61 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was - 10,173.00, and the open interest was - 30,858.00 [1]. - International silver (London silver spot): The price on 2025 - 08 - 13 was 37.69 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.91 compared to the previous day and 1.26 compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - **US**: Trump may appoint the next Fed chair slightly earlier, with the candidates narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest - rate level should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. The US Treasury Secretary pressured before the "Trump - Putin meeting" and threatened to increase sanctions against Russia. Trump said that if things go well, there will be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the core CPI annual rate in the US consumer - end inflation in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm employment in June and July in the US, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, and the Fed still has the possibility of interest - rate cuts in September, October, and December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank suspended interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 28%. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in the eurozone (Germany) in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates about once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) (core CPI) in the UK in August was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits decreased continuously from June to July, so the Bank of England may cut interest rates about once again before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government - bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The annual rate of the core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), which was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, so the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 and the resistance level around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which has reached its 17th all-time high this year amid rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, it also highlights potential hidden risks in the market as identified by Morgan Stanley, suggesting that investors should be cautious and consider hedging strategies instead of chasing further gains [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has accumulated over an 8% increase year-to-date, driven by better-than-expected Q2 earnings, robust economic performance, and the ongoing AI boom [3]. - As of the latest close, the Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points (1.04%) to 44,922.27, the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points (0.14%) to 21,713.14, and the S&P 500 gained 20.82 points (0.32%) to 6,466.58 [2]. Economic Signals - Morgan Stanley's report warns of three hidden risks in the U.S. stock market, including a cooling labor market, mixed corporate earnings, and rising price pressures [3]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 105,000, raising concerns about the labor market's momentum [3]. - The JOLTs survey indicated that job openings fell to 7.44 million, with a ratio of job openings to job seekers at approximately 1:1, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth [3]. Corporate Earnings Analysis - Despite a strong earnings season, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, a closer examination reveals that only the technology, communication services, and financial sectors achieved double-digit growth [4][6]. - The "Magnificent Seven" companies are projected to see a 26% increase in earnings, while the remaining 493 companies show almost no growth year-over-year [7]. Inflation and Stagflation Risks - Concerns about inflation and the potential for stagflation are highlighted, which could dampen the market's upward momentum [8]. - The ongoing trade war and recent tariff announcements are expected to increase effective tariff rates to nearly 18%, potentially exacerbating economic conditions despite current optimism [9]. Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley advises investors to look beyond superficial market gains and increase exposure to tangible assets such as gold, real estate investment trusts, and energy infrastructure for better risk management [11]. - The firm also recommends diversifying investments into medium- to long-term investment-grade bonds, international stocks including emerging markets, and alternative investments like hedge funds and private equity to mitigate volatility [12].