2025 年全球贵金属市场在多重变量交织下呈现复杂格局。地缘政治冲突持续升级，俄乌停火谈判陷入僵局、中东局势再度恶化，直接推升黄金避险需求。 与此同时，美联储货币政策转向释放流动性管理信号，3 月议息会议虽维持利率不变，但宣布缩减国债规模，市场对 "滞胀" 风险的警惕加剧波动。世界黄 金协会报告显示，2024 年全球央行购金量连续第三年突破千吨，中国央行黄金储备增至 7361 万盎司，这种战略配置需求为金价构筑长期支撑。在此背景 下，选择具备银行级风控体系的交易平台，成为投资者穿越周期的关键。 二、构建风控护城河：金盛的三维防护体系 1. 地缘政治黑天鹅频发：刚果（金）矿业重镇被占领冲击钯、钴供应链，特朗普关税政策引发贸易摩擦升级，这些事件如同投入湖面的巨石，持续激起 市场涟漪。金盛贵金属通过直连伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的毫秒级行情系统，让投资者第一时间捕捉异动，在 3 月 18 日中东局势恶化导致金价单 日波动超 55 美元时，其订单执行速度仍低于 0.03 秒，有效规避滞后风险。 2. 货币政策博弈加剧：美联储点阵图显示今明两年或降息两次，但就业市场韧性可能延缓宽松节奏。金盛贵金属 MT4/MT5 双 ...

鉴于特朗普反复无常的关税政策，周二发言的美联储官员罕见地都对通胀的上行风险发出警告，以此支 撑他们谨慎的降息立场。 许多经济学家和政策制定者表示，他们预计特朗普的关税将放缓经济增长并推高价格，影响的规模取决 于关税的实施方式。 根据期货合约的定价，市场普遍预计政策制定者在6月17日至18日于华盛顿举行的会议上会维持利率不 变。官员们将在此次会议上发布对利率、经济增长、通胀和劳动力市场的最新预测。 博斯蒂克表示，亚特兰大联储的经济学家研究表明，与关税相关的价格上涨将在未来几周开始显现。他 说，如果与贸易伙伴达成协议导致关税降低，这些价格压力可能会消退。但他表示，如果"高进口关税 持续存在，那么情况可能会相反"。 博斯蒂克称，如果关税引发的价格上涨看起来是"一次性的冲击"，官员们或许能够"忽略"这些上涨。但 他表示，如果关税引发更持久的通胀，风险就不同了。 "那么，通胀和更高的通胀预期就有可能以更持久的方式固化，这可能需要政策做出回应，"博斯蒂克 说。 在与记者的通话中，博斯蒂克被问及，在不存在高度不确定性的情况下，近期的通胀数据是否值得降 息。美联储青睐的物价指标显示，截至4月的一年里，通胀率为2.1%。 博斯 ...

美联储理事库克：关税可能导致类似滞胀的经济环境。 ...

凤凰网财经讯 6月3日，美股三大指数震荡整理，截至发稿，道指涨0.02%，纳指涨0.48%，标普500指数 涨0.21%。消息称Meta将从Constellation购买核电用于数据中心，核电概念股走高，Constellation Energy 涨超4%、Energy Fuels涨超13%、Uranium Energy涨超10%。中概股方面，网易涨2.22%，京东跌 1.25%，小鹏汽车涨0.83%。 特朗普威胁将钢铝关税上调至50%后 欧盟警告要反制、韩国紧急开会 在当地时间5月30日，特朗普在美国钢铁制造城市匹兹堡的一场集会上，称将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关 税从目前的25%上调至50%。这一表态再次搅动美国目前的双边贸易谈判。欧盟对此表示，特朗普最新 的关税举措破坏了为达成协议所做的持续努力，欧盟并就反制措施发出警告。 美联储主席：政策制定者必须了解美元潜在的不稳定性对美国家庭和企业的影响 全球要闻 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈 外交部回应 在今日外交部例行记者会上，有外媒记者提问称，白宫称，中美领导人本周将举行会谈，发言人有何回 应？对此，发言人林剑表示，我没有可以提供的消息。 当地时间6月2日，美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - A - share market shows a situation where the macro environment is moderately loose, the profit situation has improved, but the capital situation is unfavorable, and the overall valuation is at a medium - low level, which is conducive to the long - term performance of the index [10][12][13] Summary by Directory I. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month [4] - **Overseas News**: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out the risk of stagflation [4] - **Market Situation**: Last week, the CSI 300 index fluctuated weakly with low trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 100.2 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 100 million yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Technically, the CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with low short - term trading volume and medium - low long - term valuation [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] II. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price and Volume**: Index futures fluctuated weakly with low market trading volume [7] - **Basis**: The current index basis rate has declined, and there are no arbitrage opportunities in the index [7] - **Return**: Since 2024, Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.86%, and CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 2.93% [7] - **Contract Data**: The table shows the closing prices, weekly returns, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume/open interest ratios of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts last week and this week [6] III. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI (49.4) was below the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.72) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8%, with moderate relaxation [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year corporate net profit changed from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, up 1 BP from last week [10] IV. Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 100 million yuan in the past 5 trading days; the cumulative net outflow of main funds of A - shares was 100.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 11.73, with a percentile of 38%; the P/B ratio is 1.29, with a percentile of 9% [12][13] V. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Long - term and medium - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish) [17] - **Profit Situation**: A - share corporate profits increased year - on - year in the first quarter (bullish) [17] - **Capital Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [17] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the index in the long - term (bullish) [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, with low trading volume, and short - term fluctuations are neutral [16]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warns of a significant economic slowdown and inflation resurgence in the second half of 2025, primarily driven by tariff policies [1][3] - Waller predicts that if current trade policies persist, the core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed 3.5% by Q3 2025, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The unemployment rate may rise from the current 4.1% to over 4.8% as companies are forced to lay off employees to offset rising costs [3] Group 2 - MEXC leveraged trading platform is known for offering up to 125x leverage, supported by a three-tier risk control system, including dynamic margin mechanisms and dual-direction hedging [3][5] - XBIT decentralized exchange enhances trading security with a "zero trust" architecture, executing all orders via smart contracts and allowing for anonymous trading without KYC [5][6] - The combination of MEXC and XBIT provides a unique strategy for investors to hedge against economic downturns, utilizing leverage to capture volatility while ensuring safety through decentralization [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in market confidence post the China-US Geneva trade talks[13] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold[16] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is 50.7%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating a return to the expansion zone[19] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a widening supply-demand gap, with the difference between new orders and production PMI at -0.9%, indicating increasing pressure on PPI, which is estimated to decline by 3.4% year-on-year in May[20][22] - Effective demand remains insufficient, constraining economic recovery, with short-term production, investment, and consumption expected to contract[31] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still indicates expansion, supported by the construction and service sectors[25] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a cautious market strategy driven by orders, with corporate profitability likely under pressure due to insufficient effective demand and external uncertainties[31] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-dividend stocks and industry leaders benefiting from policy incentives, particularly in cross-border tourism and consumption[33] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is noted as a critical observation point for potential policy adjustments in response to external pressures[33]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the broader consumption and technology sectors, particularly in the context of the Chinese and U.S. economies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Risks**: The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. is expected to rise, negatively impacting global economic conditions and trade [1] 2. **U.S. Treasury Costs**: The cost of rolling over maturing U.S. Treasury bonds is anticipated to increase, which may affect market liquidity [1] 3. **Tax Cuts and Deficit**: Tax cuts are projected to raise the deficit, thereby increasing the credit risk associated with U.S. Treasuries [1] 4. **Trade Uncertainty**: The uncertainty surrounding "Tariff 2.0" negotiations is likely to disrupt global trade dynamics [1] 5. **Domestic Economic Policies**: The effectiveness of the "Two New" policies in stimulating the domestic economy is diminishing, suggesting a greater reliance on government intervention for future economic growth [1] 6. **Market Volatility**: A view is maintained that global equity market volatility is likely to trend upwards, with a shift from small-cap growth styles to large-cap value defensive strategies [1] 7. **New Consumption Trends**: The focus on new consumption should prioritize sectors that benefit from policy support, accelerating industry conditions, and manageable duration of overspending [2] 8. **Traditional Consumption Strategies**: For traditional consumption, the strategy should involve selecting growth-oriented sectors while considering factors like ROE, dividend yield, cash flow, and capital expenditure [2] 9. **Technology Sector Focus**: In the technology sector, emphasis should be placed on areas with a penetration rate of 10%-15%, evaluating the impact of volume, price, ROE, and capital expenditure trends on profitability [2] 10. **Defensive Style and Structural Opportunities**: The investment style is leaning towards defensive strategies, with a clear trading logic for structural opportunities in the market [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The analysis suggests a significant shift in investment strategies due to changing economic conditions, highlighting the importance of adapting to both domestic and international market dynamics [1][2][3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve - The core PCE price index in the US decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a potential interest rate cut later this year, despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation and employment [1] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised to a -0.2% growth rate, indicating economic stagnation, while consumer confidence has dropped significantly [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged following Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with spot gold reaching $3,380 per ounce [2] - Gold mining stocks experienced significant gains, with Newmont rising nearly 5.5% and Barrick Gold over 6% [2] - Long-term demand for gold is driven by central bank purchases, making gold a safer investment compared to more volatile gold mining stocks [2] Group 3: Seagate Technology Developments - Seagate Technology's stock rose by 29.56% in May, driven by the delivery of 40TB hard drive samples and plans for larger capacities [3] - The company aims to produce a 100TB hard drive by 2030, addressing the growing demand for data storage in AI and data centers [3] - Seagate reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase and a 12.6-fold increase in profit, highlighting its strong market position [3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - OPEC+ decided to maintain an increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, consistent with previous months [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts continued OPEC+ production increases, potentially leading to lower oil prices, while Goldman Sachs expects a more cautious approach [5][6] - The overall supply-demand balance remains skewed towards oversupply, with US production growth impacting global oil prices [6] Group 5: US Stock Market Projections - After a 6.2% rebound in May, the US stock market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to rising inflation and slowing economic growth [7] - The S&P 500 index has only increased by about 0.9% this year, underperforming compared to European markets [7] - Concerns over inflation and fiscal issues may lead to higher bond yields, affecting the attractiveness of US equities [7]

智通财经APP获悉，关税问题再度引发市场担忧，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从6 月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。受此消息刺激，6月3日，COMEX黄金期货主 力合约收涨2.74%，报3406.4美元/盎司。高盛指出，若贸易摩擦升级至全面对抗，预计2025年末金价或 突破4200美元。 紫金矿业(02899)：5月26日，紫金矿业公告称，公司拟将其控股子公司紫金黄金国际分拆至香港联交所 主板上市，并计划在上市前将下属多座境外黄金矿山资产重组整合至紫金黄金国际旗下。本次拟分拆上 市资产由八座位于南美、中亚、非洲和大洋洲的世界级大型黄金矿山组成。 山东黄金(01787)：山东黄金2025年一季度收入为259.4亿元，同比上升36.8%；归母净利润为10.3亿元， 同比上升46.6%；基本每股收益0.20元。 灵宝黄金(03330)：灵宝黄金公告，公司预计2025年第一季度净利润不低于2.5亿元。公告表示，业绩增 长主要原因是公司迎合市场上升需求，全力赶产，黄金产量较去年同期显著增加，同时公司整体营运效 率也在持续提升，进一步强化了成本控制措施，并得益于黄金价格在同期的上涨。 ...