分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 就业市场持续降温，中美关税博弈增加 | | --- | --- | | | > 就业市场持续降温,通胀符合预期 | | | ◆ 劳动力市场持续降温。美国8月非农就业仪增2.2万人、远低于预期及7月修正值（7.9万）。6月数据下修至减少1.3万、失业率升 | | 海外宏观 | 至4.3%,反映劳动力市场压力加剧。美国8月0P1同比上涨2.9%,环比上涨0.4%,显示出通胀温和回升的态势。 | | | > 中美近期关税博弈增加 | | | ◆ 美国总统特朗普10月10日在社交媒体威胁从11月1日起对华加征100%关税。其背后有两方面原因:一来、随着美联储进入降息周期 | | | 特朗普认为具备了更多应对潜在经济冲击的政策底气:二来,当前突陈关税税率未达其预期,也为其继续加码创造了条件。 | | | ◆ 考虑到全面实施100%关税将在执行层面面临巨大阻力,该政策最终完全落地的可能性有限。 | | | 经济运行承压,政策加码可能性上升,关注中 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the issuance of financial products due to the National Day holiday, with a total of 880 new products launched, down from 1214 in the previous period, indicating a trend of "scale contraction, yield differentiation, and structural concentration" in the market [11][13] - Fixed income products dominate the market, accounting for 98.75% of new issuances, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among institutions in a low-interest-rate environment [11][14] - The report anticipates a small peak in new financial product issuances post-holiday, as institutions adjust their strategies to avoid the inefficiencies of fundraising during holiday periods [13][20] Summary by Sections 1. Bank Wealth Management Products - The new issuance of bank wealth management products saw a significant drop, with 880 products launched, a decrease from 1214 previously, primarily due to the holiday effect [11][13] - Fixed income products remain the core choice for investors, with 577 new products (65.6% of total) being fixed income + type, indicating a preference for low-risk investments [14][16] - The majority of new products have a holding period of 3 months to 3 years, with 80% of products falling into this category, reflecting a preference for longer-term yield certainty [15] 2. Fund Products - The fund issuance market experienced a downturn, with only 68 new funds launched, down from 95, and total issuance volume dropping to 431.44 billion units from 966.22 billion units [18][20] - Equity funds regained dominance, with 36 new equity funds issued, totaling 216.59 billion units, representing 50.20% of the total issuance, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies [22][26] - The report notes that the holiday effect has led to a temporary lull in fund issuance, with expectations of a surge in new funds post-holiday [20][21] 3. Insurance Products - The insurance market saw a decrease in new product launches, with 36 new products issued, down 43.75% from the previous period, reflecting a significant impact from the holiday [29][30] - Traditional life insurance products have increased their market share to 57.89%, while dividend-type products have decreased, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards more stable offerings [32] - The report highlights a continued downtrend in the settlement rates of universal insurance products, with most rates falling within the 2.5%-3% range, reflecting broader market conditions [31][31]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund issuance market remains robust in October, following a record high in September, with a significant number of new funds planned for subscription, particularly in equity funds and technology sectors [1][6][9]. Fund Issuance Trends - In October, 92 new funds are set to launch, with 54 products concentrated in the week of October 13-17 [1][6]. - Equity funds dominate the issuance, accounting for over 70% of the new products, with a notable focus on passive index funds [3][6][7]. - The new funds are primarily targeting the technology innovation sector and the Hong Kong stock market [4][8]. Product Structure - Among the 92 new funds, 70 are equity funds, including 35 passive index funds, 24 active equity funds, and 11 enhanced index funds [6][7]. - The trend shows a shift towards thematic focus, market diversification, and product segmentation in index funds, moving beyond mainstream indices to niche themes driven by policy [8]. Market Dynamics - The public fund issuance market has shown signs of recovery since June, with increasing numbers of new funds and total issuance volumes [9][10]. - In the first nine months of the year, 1,138 new funds were issued, a 31.87% increase compared to the same period last year, with equity funds making up 72.32% of the total [11][12]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued focus on equity funds, with a more diversified product structure including index, enhanced index, and traditional stock funds [12]. - Key themes for future fund issuance may include technology growth, domestic demand, and traditional manufacturing, although uncertainties in macroeconomic data and international politics could impact issuance volumes [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the technology sector is expected to experience significant catalysts compared to cyclical sectors before spring 2026, suggesting a continuation of the trend in technology growth [1] - The ChiNext index fell by 1.1%, but rebounded over 3% from its intraday low, indicating volatility in the market [1] - Recent inflows into the ChiNext ETF (159915) totaled approximately 3 billion yuan over the last five trading days, with the product's latest scale exceeding 108 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the technology growth sector still has a gap to long-term low cost-performance levels, which may lead to a prolonged trend market [1] - The conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to become increasingly sufficient over time, suggesting potential for further market growth [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a shift from rising to falling after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and falling below 3900 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.52 trillion, a decrease of 137.6 billion from the previous trading day [1] - Sector performance was mixed, with construction materials, coal, and textiles leading in gains, while electronics, power equipment, computers, and non-ferrous metals saw significant declines [1] Macro Analysis - The impact of recent Sino-U.S. trade tensions on the market is expected to be weaker than in April, due to more precise and effective countermeasures from China, including actions related to rare earths and lithium batteries [2][3] - Previous trade negotiations have yielded some results, and recent technological advancements in China's semiconductor and emerging tech sectors strengthen its negotiating position [2] - Economic data from the U.S. is showing signs of marginal deterioration, while China's economic structure is showing positive changes, with improved profit margins for industrial enterprises and stabilization in PPI year-on-year data [2][3] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on technology growth as a core investment theme, with potential short-term trading opportunities in rare earths and precious metals [4][5] - The upcoming political meetings and policy announcements in October are expected to provide favorable conditions for investment, despite potential short-term market fluctuations [4] - Long-term prospects for the stock market are optimistic, supported by declining risk-free interest rates, improved liquidity, and better earnings expectations [4][5] Sector Focus - The acceleration of AI innovation and domestic production is expected to lead to a new capital expenditure cycle, particularly in sectors like internet, electronic semiconductors, defense, and robotics [5] - The financial sector, after adjustments, is showing improved dividend returns and stable value, with attention on brokerage and insurance stocks [5] - The shift in economic governance is likely to correct previously overvalued deflation expectations, making cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and new energy more attractive [6]

Group 1 - The market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments recently, but the long-term positive trend remains intact. External shocks leading to asset declines present a good opportunity to increase holdings in the Chinese market [2] - The current external trade risks are relatively clear compared to previous shocks, and domestic financial stability conditions are more apparent, indicating that external disturbances will not end the upward trend [2] - There are structural opportunities alongside short-term adjustments, with continued optimism for technology growth, finance, and certain cyclical sectors. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation and focus on investment opportunities in these areas [2] Group 2 - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share market, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [2] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF covers a broader range of 500 companies [2] - The total trading volume in the market reached 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating a decline in market activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued its upward trend in September, driven by technology growth, with significant gains in the ChiNext and STAR Market indices, indicating a strong investor interest in tech stocks [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose approximately 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by about 6.54% in September [2] - The ChiNext Index surged over 12%, reaching a nearly three-year high, and the STAR Market Index rose about 11.48%, marking a nearly four-year high [2] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,895.51 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 201% and a month-on-month increase of 5% [2] Group 2: Private Equity Research Activity - In September, 529 A-share companies were researched by private equity firms, with a total of nearly 2,800 research instances [3] - The six most favored industries by private equity firms included electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, computers, and basic chemicals, each receiving over a hundred research instances [3][4] - The average performance of researched companies varied significantly, with electronics and power equipment sectors showing average gains of 10.89% and 11.74%, respectively, while pharmaceuticals and computers had average declines of -1.61% and -1.18% [3][4] Group 3: Individual Company Insights - The top three companies researched in September were Maiwei Biopharma, Lankai Technology, and Juguang Technology, with research instances of 88, 71, and 67, respectively [6][7] - Maiwei Biopharma, a company focused on innovative biopharmaceuticals, signed an exclusive licensing agreement for a dual-target small nucleic acid drug, indicating its strategic positioning in the market [8] - The average stock price increase for researched companies in September was 4.95%, with 65 companies receiving at least 10 research instances [6] Group 4: Private Equity Fund Performance - Among private equity firms, those with over 100 billion yuan in assets showed an average return of 30.04% year-to-date, outperforming smaller firms [11] - Panjing Investment was the most active among large private equity firms, conducting 34 research instances in September, with an average stock price increase of 15.62% for researched companies [13] - High Yi Asset, another significant player, conducted 23 research instances with an average stock price increase of 7.84% for the companies researched [13][14]

Group 1 - The ChiNext index showed resilience after a low opening, with active movements in rare earth permanent magnets and lithium battery sectors [1] - The Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) narrowed its decline to 1.24% by the end of the trading day, rebounding over 3% from its intraday low, with a fluctuation exceeding 4% [1] - Key stocks such as Jinli Permanent Magnet hit the daily limit, while Jiangfeng Electronics and Huada Jiutian saw increases of over 10%, with Nanda Optoelectronics and Allwinner Technology also performing well [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong ChiNext ETF closely tracks the ChiNext index, featuring high-growth and high-elasticity characteristics, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, among the lowest in the market [3] - The ChiNext index covers popular growth sectors including batteries, communication equipment, securities, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [3] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the ChiNext index serves as a benchmark for emerging industries in China, showing clear rhythm characteristics across different industrial cycles [3] - The current phase of the ChiNext index exhibits a "diversified coexistence" feature, with new energy remaining a core strength alongside AI hardware [3] Group 3 - Historical analysis by招商证券 indicates that large-cap styles tend to outperform in October and the fourth quarter, with technology growth expected to continue its dominance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of new funds has surged post the National Day holiday, with a total of 51 new funds launched during the week from October 13 to October 17, indicating a strong recovery in the fund issuance market, particularly in equity funds [2][6]. Fund Issuance Overview - A significant portion of the new funds, 31 out of 51, were launched on Monday, October 13, accounting for 60.78% of the total new funds for the week [4]. - The average subscription period for the new funds was 12.59 days, which is a noticeable decrease compared to previous periods [5]. - The longest subscription period was 21 days for the 华夏上证 180ETF 联接, while the shortest was just 2 days for two public REITs products [6]. Fund Types and Composition - Equity funds dominated the new fund landscape, with 42 out of 51 funds classified as equity funds, representing 82.35% of the total [7]. - Among the equity funds, 28 were index equity funds, making up 66.67% of the equity category [8]. - The new funds included a variety of themes, such as those tracking Hong Kong Stock Connect indices and those focused on the STAR Market and ChiNext indices [8]. Active Equity Funds - There were 14 actively managed equity funds launched, including 11 mixed funds and 3 ordinary stock funds, reflecting a diverse investment strategy among fund companies [9]. - The active equity funds featured several quantitative theme products and a range of investment styles, from technology growth to balanced value strategies [9]. Bond Funds and Market Trends - Only 3 bond funds were launched during the week, indicating a decline in interest in bond funds as equity markets show signs of recovery [9]. - The "fixed income plus" funds have gained attention, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards more flexible investment strategies [9]. - The overall sentiment in the fund issuance market is improving, with expectations for continued growth in equity fund issuance if market conditions remain favorable [9].

Overall Market Outlook - The A-share market may continue its upward trend into the fourth quarter of 2025, but the momentum is expected to weaken, leading to increased volatility and a gradual rise within a wide range [1][13][14] - The investment style in the fourth quarter is likely to be more balanced compared to the third quarter, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical sectors, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1][14] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector remains a key focus, particularly in areas such as semiconductors, AI, robotics, digital economy, communication equipment, and defense industries [2][15] - There is an expectation of internal differentiation within the technology sector, with a need for investors to be cautious and prepared for potential risks associated with crowded trades [2][15] - Performance factors will be crucial for capital allocation, with a preference for technology stocks that demonstrate structural performance highlights or growth expectations [2][15] Cyclical and Consumption Sectors - The cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic conditions, particularly in areas like construction materials, coal, and metals [8][15] - Domestic consumption is highlighted as a potential area for investment, especially in sectors catering to the aging population and younger consumers [15] - High-dividend stocks may see renewed interest as their yield becomes attractive again, making the fourth quarter a potential window for positioning in dividend-paying assets [8][15] Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a cautious and conservative investment approach, suggesting that investors should take profits when appropriate and avoid chasing high prices [3][14] - Structural opportunities should be prioritized, with a focus on stocks that have actual performance or future earnings support, while avoiding purely speculative stocks [3][15] - The overall market sentiment is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. tariff policies and domestic economic recovery efforts [12][13]