Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.13% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose by 0.59% [11] - The report indicates that the production of iron and steel has decreased slightly, with a daily average iron output of 2.4012 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.10 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 15.37 tons [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products has increased, with a total consumption of 9.486 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 48.10 thousand tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products has decreased, with a total of 11.248 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 51.90 thousand tons [3][45] - The price of ordinary steel has decreased, with a comprehensive index of 3,457.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.06 yuan/ton [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 0.13% increase, lagging behind the market [11] - The special steel sector increased by 1.74%, while the long product sector rose by 1.06% [13] 2. Core Data - Iron and steel production has decreased slightly, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.2% [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products increased by 5.34% week-on-week [32][37] - Social inventory decreased by 4.41% week-on-week [45] 3. Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,457.7 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 73 yuan/ton, down 32.41% week-on-week [59] 4. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating various earnings and P/E ratios [76]

Price Trends - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5%, indicating a marginal expansion in the decline[2] - The month-on-month CPI dropped by 0.4%, aligning with seasonal patterns, and the year-on-year decline narrowed[3] - Core CPI showed a marginal recovery, primarily due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy, which supported prices of household appliances and electronics[3] Consumption and Demand - Overall consumption and service demand remain weak, necessitating further policy support[2] - March food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, with significant declines in fresh vegetables, pork, and eggs[6] - The average price of live pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, remaining below 15 yuan/kg for three consecutive months[6] PPI Dynamics - The PPI saw an expanded decline of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[12] - The upstream mining sector experienced a month-on-month price drop of 2.9%, while raw material prices shifted from a 0.1% increase to a 0.6% decrease[12] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 1.0%, indicating a potential "price war" as companies aim to boost sales[12] Policy Implications - Increased urgency for monetary policy adjustments, including RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, is anticipated[2] - Fiscal measures are expected to include accelerated special bond issuance and enhanced consumption subsidies[2] - The ongoing tariff disturbances and rising external risks suggest that further growth-stabilizing policies are likely to be implemented[2] Risks - Uncertainty in real estate trends persists, and the strength of policy measures may be weaker than expected[21]

Market Overview - The report indicates a positive sentiment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rising by 1.16%, 1.31%, and 0.95% respectively on April 10 [2] - The technology sector saw a rotation from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, with the STAR 50, STAR Composite Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.09%, 2.06%, and 2.27% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with short-term yields declining due to easing liquidity, while long-term yields rose amid expectations [2][4] Commodity Performance - Precious metals prices rebounded, with both London and New York gold surpassing $3100 per ounce, and domestic gold and silver rising by 3.21% and 3.44% respectively [3] - Industrial metals and energy prices also saw recovery, with New York copper increasing by over 4% and domestic copper rising by 3.86% [3] - In the domestic market, construction-related commodities such as rebar and iron ore saw increases of 2.01% and 3.06% respectively, while coking coal and glass experienced slight declines [3] Currency and Liquidity - The report notes a weakening of the US dollar, which alleviated depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates approaching 7.32 [3] - The liquidity environment improved, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal operation of 157.5 billion yuan, yet funding rates remained stable [4] - Overnight funding costs fell to around 1.65%, indicating a comfortable liquidity position [4] Sector Performance - The consumer sector continued to lead gains, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as retail, automotive, and light manufacturing, with respective increases of 4.83%, 3.21%, and 2.93% [7] - The technology sector also performed well, with media, electronics, and communications indices rising by 3.20%, 2.58%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The report highlights a strong rebound in the A-share market, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and a potential easing of trade tensions [6][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.06% and 2.66% respectively, with consumer, materials, and defense sectors showing strong performance [8] - Despite a net outflow of 4.03 billion HKD from southbound funds, the market sentiment remained positive, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking after recent gains [8] - The report notes that the AH share premium index remains around 140, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are still in a recovery phase [8]

钢铁股集体重挫，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌19.44%，报1.45港元；鞍钢股份（000898） (00347)跌17.96%，报1.37港元；中国东方集团(00581)跌17.19%，报1.06港元；重庆钢铁（601005）股份 (01053)跌16.09%，报0.73港元。 民生证券指出，贸易摩擦担忧升级，钢材价格承压。4月2日，特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等 关税"措施，4月9日将实施34%所谓的"对等关税"。钢铁产品不受本次关税约束，但其下游制成品将受 到关税影响。根据钢联测算，2024年钢铁间接对美出口约1000万吨，其他国家对美出口的钢材也有部分 来自于中国，整体影响量预计不低于2000万吨，约占总需求的2%。长期来看，粗钢仍有产量调控预 期，原料端铁矿、焦煤供给趋于宽松，若限产幅度超过2000万吨，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 信达证券（601059）表示，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随 系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发 展、钢铁出口高位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下 ...

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to increase global trade costs, leading to potential inflationary or recessionary pressures on the global economy [1][8] - The tariffs include a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with China facing a 34% tariff, which could exacerbate external demand challenges for China [7][8] Short-term and Mid-term Market Impact - In the short term, risk appetite is likely to be under pressure due to inflation or recession narratives, impacting asset pricing and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][10] - Historical data suggests that after tariff announcements, the A-share market may experience initial pressure followed by potential rebounds, depending on new catalysts [10] - Mid-term asset pricing will revert to fundamentals, with the actual impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries being crucial [10] Policy Response and Domestic Growth - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the actual impact of tariffs and potential policy responses, as external demand contraction may necessitate stronger domestic growth policies [2][9] - There is an expectation for increased domestic policy measures to stimulate growth, such as interest rate cuts and consumption incentives, especially if negotiations yield positive outcomes before the tariffs take effect [2][9] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive approach focusing on dividend-paying assets, as market risk appetite is expected to decline [4][11] - Key sectors to consider include telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and state-owned banks, which are likely to attract defensive capital [11] - Additionally, there is a recommendation to explore offensive opportunities in sectors that may benefit from tariff exemptions or domestic growth policies, such as local consumption and infrastructure investments [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decline of 0.86% compared to a 2.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a 1.43 percentage point outperformance [7] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [8] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream industries resume operations [9] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are weak, seasonal recovery in non-electric industries may offset some demand losses, leading to potential stabilization in coking coal prices [10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [7] Domestic and International Coal Prices - As of March 23, domestic thermal coal prices are at 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week, while international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal have seen slight increases [8] - Domestic coking coal prices are at 1150 RMB/ton, down 4.17% week-on-week, with international prices also declining [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal companies with improving operational conditions [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decrease of 0.86% last week, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 1.43 percentage points [6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [7] - CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal market price is 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week [7] - Focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal enterprises [9] Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [6] - The coal sector has experienced relative returns of -17% over the past month, -10% over three months, and -21% over twelve months [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal supply is tightening, with production potentially affected by safety inspections in major mining areas [7] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream construction activities resume [8] - The demand for non-electric industries (like steel and chemicals) is expected to seasonally rebound, which may offset the decline in heating demand [9]

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6] Core Insights - The current phase is characterized by intensive implementation of stable growth policies, with broad monetary easing followed by fiscal expansion, significantly impacting the banking fundamentals in 2025. Enhanced fiscal policies are expected to support social financing and boost economic expectations, benefiting cyclical stocks. Although the net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, the concentrated repricing of high-interest deposits and ongoing regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide crucial support for the banks' interest margins in 2025. The year is anticipated to solidify the asset quality of banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment assets under policy support, leading to a potential turning point in asset quality for certain personal loan products that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal [4][22][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend stocks, with recommendations for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Agricultural Bank of China (601288, not rated), and Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy) 2. Stocks with improved risk expectations and strong fundamentals, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), Shanghai Bank (601229, not rated), and China Merchants Bank (600036, not rated) [4][22][23] Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, social financing grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, which is 737.4 billion yuan more than the previous year. The growth in government bonds was a significant contributor, increasing by 1.0956 trillion yuan year-on-year. However, the growth in RMB loans decreased by 326.7 billion yuan, indicating a need for further observation of demand improvement [8][9][12]. Loan Growth Trends - The loan growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in February 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from January. The total new RMB loans added were 1.01 trillion yuan, which is 440 billion yuan less than the previous year. The report highlights the impact of debt resolution on loan growth, particularly in the context of consumer loans and corporate loans [12][18]. Deposit Growth Analysis - In February 2025, M1 grew by 0.1% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7.0%. The total new RMB deposits reached 4.42 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.46 trillion yuan year-on-year. The report notes a significant increase in government and non-bank financial institution deposits, attributed to heightened trading activity in the equity market [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [21] Core Insights - The overall trade growth rate in China for the first two months of 2025 is weak, with a total import and export value of 6.54 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Adjusting for fewer working days, the growth rate is 1.7% [2][6] - The industrial producer price index (IPP) shows a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in February 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial prices [3][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) also reflects a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in February 2025, with food prices dropping significantly [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Major Economic Data Analysis - **Import and Export Data**: In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value was 6.54 trillion RMB, with exports at 3.88 trillion RMB (up 3.4%) and imports at 2.66 trillion RMB (down 7.3%). In USD terms, the total was 909.37 billion USD, a decrease of 2.4% [6][3] - **Industrial Producer Price Index**: The IPP decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2025, with production material prices down 2.5%. The average for January-February shows a similar decline [7][8] - **Consumer Price Index**: The CPI fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, with food prices down 3.3%. The average CPI for January-February shows a slight decline of 0.1% [9][10] 2. Economic Commentary - The weak trade growth and price indices indicate a slow recovery in the domestic macroeconomic environment. The report highlights the need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in consumer spending, to create a positive feedback loop for economic growth [3][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing the weak consumption pattern, which negatively impacts corporate profits and investment activities, thereby hindering overall economic recovery [3][16]