Core Viewpoint - The overall market fundamentals are favorable for gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying, particularly following the U.S. arrest of the Venezuelan president, which has heightened market risk aversion and supported a significant rise in gold prices [1][2][5]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a notable increase of nearly $150 due to the heightened risk aversion stemming from geopolitical events, particularly the arrest of the Venezuelan president [2][5]. - The market is currently observing a consolidation phase, with gold prices fluctuating around key support and resistance levels, specifically $4441 and $4500 [3][6]. Technical Indicators - Short-term technical indicators suggest that gold may continue to rebound, with the 5-day moving average and MACD showing bullish signals, while KDJ indicates a potential upward trend [2][6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4441 and $4428, while resistance is noted at $4500 and the historical high of $4550 [3][5].

2026 年 1 月 7 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铂、钯、镍、锡、氧化铝、碳 酸锂、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震 | 4850 和 4900 点 | 4778 和 4740 点 | | | | | 荡 | ...

摘要周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，现货黄金震荡下行，日内跌约0.85%，现交投于4455美元附近。市场消化 美国对委内瑞拉军事行动后，风险偏好升温引发大宗商品获利回吐。但特朗普吞并格陵兰岛威胁及对哥 伦比亚、墨西哥的对抗言论，令地缘风险持续发酵，限制金价跌幅。美联储降息预期升温致美元未能延 续涨势，支撑无息资产黄金。交易商观望，等待周五非农等关键数据指引方向。 周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，现货黄金震荡下行，日内跌约0.85%，现交投于4455美元附近。市场消化美国 对委内瑞拉军事行动后，风险偏好升温引发大宗商品获利回吐。但特朗普吞并格陵兰岛威胁及对哥伦比 亚、墨西哥的对抗言论，令地缘风险持续发酵，限制金价跌幅。美联储降息预期升温致美元未能延续涨 势，支撑无息资产黄金。交易商观望，等待周五非农等关键数据指引方向。 【要闻速递】 美方对委内瑞拉采取军事行动并逮捕总统马杜罗，引发全球关注。周一马杜罗在纽约联邦法院否认指 控，称自己合法当选;美方称将暂时"管理"委局势，新任总统罗德里格斯则释放缓和信号，愿在框架下 合作。对峙与对话交织，令市场风险判断陷入模糊。在此不确定性下，资金未撤离黄金市场，反而将其 视为避险触发点。黄 ...

市场反应显示，地缘风险引发的避险资金流入具有持续性。1月7日美元指数上涨0.32%至98.579，但黄 金依然抗跌，出现"美元与黄金同涨"格局，表明地缘风险主导市场。 在政策层面，美联储2026年降息预期持续发酵，机构普遍预测全年或降息2-3次。里奇蒙联储主席称货 币政策需精细调整，平衡失业与通胀风险，强化降息预期。美债收益率整体处于近三个月相对低位，长 端稳定为黄金提供利率支撑。本周将公布的美国12月非农、ADP就业及ISM非制造业PMI等数据，将为 利率路径提供线索，若数据不及预期，降息预期将进一步升温。 摘要北京时间周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，美元指数先涨后跌，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4462.56 美元/盎司，跌幅0.69%，最高触及4499.89美元/盎司，最低触及4441.09美元/盎司。不过，从整体表现来 看，回调幅度相对有限，显示多头结构尚未出现明显破坏。尽管纳斯达克等主要指数继续刷新历史高 点，市场情绪表面趋于乐观，但地缘不确定性并未明显缓解。 北京时间周三(1月7日)欧洲时段，美元指数先涨后跌，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4462.56美元/ 盎司，跌幅0.69%，最 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期镍周二一度飙升逾10%，触及18785美元/吨的高位，创下三年多来最大盘中涨幅，到收盘，涨近9%，报18524美 元/吨。过去两周内，镍价已累计上涨超过20%，自12月中以来三周内涨近30%。 特朗普政府潜在关税政策持续发酵。据一些报道，美国总统特朗普考虑2027年对进口铜征收约15%的关税，2028年提高至30%。投资者对美国提高关 税的预期导致大量铜库存涌入美国。据CME数据，美国铜库存自2025年4月以来增长超过四倍，截至1月2日达到45.345万吨，而全球其他地区供应告 急。 地缘政治风险推升避险需求。据新华社报道，美国1月3日上周六凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委总统 马杜罗及其夫人，并将二人带至美国。美国强行控制马杜罗引发全球紧张局势加剧，支撑贵金属价格上涨。彭博贵金属分类指数过去一个月涨逾 13%，年初以来涨约5%。 伦镍领涨：中国买盘推动三年最大涨幅 本周二，金属市场延续周一涨势全面爆发。伦镍领衔工业金属大涨，盘中一度涨超10%，纽约期银盘中涨超6%，逼近一周前所创的盘中最高纪录， 伦铜在周一史上首次突破1.3万美元关口后进一 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to around $4500 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a daily increase of over 1% [1][2] - Silver prices rose over 5%, reaching a historical high, with strong momentum despite being in overbought territory; a breakthrough above $81.44 could open an upward channel to $82.00-$85.87, while $80.00 serves as key support [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Venezuelan crisis, following the U.S. military action and the capture of President Maduro, may continue to support traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, with an 82% probability that rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [2] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%; stronger-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [2] - Silver has a bullish long-term outlook, with potential prices reaching $100, $120, or even higher, while the $70 level remains a strong support despite a significant adjustment in late 2025 [3]

国内品牌金价今日继续全线上行，整体价格区间进一步抬升。其中，老庙黄金表现突出，报价达1402 元/克，成为今日首个突破1400元/克关口的品牌。其余主流品牌金价也普遍迈向1400元大关。市场最高 价与最低价（菜百报1370元/克）之间的价差仍为32元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1402 | 元/克 | 13 | 张 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1396 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1398 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | I383 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1396 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1399 | 兀/兄 | 11 | 张 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1398 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1397 | 元/克 | 10 | 张 | | 菜白 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that multiple favorable factors are supporting the appreciation of the Renminbi, including improved macroeconomic data and increased foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets [1][3][4] - The Chinese economy is showing resilience due to the effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustment policies, which enhances expectations for economic improvement and provides solid support for the Renminbi [1][4] - The year-end and early-year peak in corporate foreign exchange settlement activity is driving the Renminbi's appreciation against the US dollar [1][4][8] Group 2 - The recent softening of the US dollar index, which has dropped from high levels, is a significant factor contributing to the Renminbi's strength [5][6] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have both started the year positively, attracting long-term foreign investment, which further benefits the Renminbi [1][3][4] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing market sentiment and contributing to the Renminbi's appreciation [5][6] Group 3 - The Renminbi's central parity rate has reached a 15-month high, with the onshore and offshore rates also showing significant appreciation [3][6] - The recent geopolitical tensions, such as the US military action in Venezuela, have increased global risk aversion, leading to a rise in demand for safe-haven assets, including the Renminbi [7][8] - Analysts predict that the Renminbi will continue to appreciate in the short term, with potential fluctuations between 6.85 and 7.1 against the US dollar [8]

摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1004.21元/克，较前一交易日下跌5.40美元，跌幅 0.53%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1009.70元/克，最高价1011.03元/克，最低价1002.00元/克。 近期地缘不确定性显著上行，美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发全球风险偏好回落，避险资金加速配置贵 金属；多家机构与研究人士指出，国际形势动荡对金价的短期与中期支撑均在强化。 中长期看，地缘风险与"制度性不确定性"被纳入黄金定价框架的核心变量，黄金作为"无对手风险"的储 备资产地位进一步凸显，配置需求具有韧性。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年11月各国央行净买入约45吨，1—11月累计接近297吨；展望2026年，瑞 银预计全球央行净购金或达约950吨，延续近年高位。央行增持强化了黄金的中长期需求基础与价格韧 性。 一方面，黄金ETF与配置资金流入回升；另一方面，国内春节前后传统旺季对金饰与实物形成支撑，但 高金价对首饰销量形成一定抑制，渠道周转与借金业务趋于谨慎，价格传导呈现"投资强、消费弱"的结 构性分化。 瑞银财富管理预计金价在2026年一季度末有望上探5000美元/盎司，若政治或金融风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have strengthened due to the U.S. Greenland initiative and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,500 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.22% to $4,505.70 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.93% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562) saw a rise of 2.8% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) surged by 4.16% [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that future economic data will support the direction of "rate cuts being appropriate" [1] - He believes the Federal Reserve should cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year [1] - Concerns over the dollar system are accelerating the shift towards non-dollar payment arrangements, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metal investments due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts [1]