Group 1: Report's Overall Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Panic sentiment persists, and base metals are under pressure with a volatile trend. In the short term, the negative impact of the sharp drop in silver prices remains, but its marginal effect is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see or cautiously take short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin with strict position control. In the long term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, tin and other varieties are expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index continues to rise, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disturbances increase, TC of copper concentrate spot drops, and the long - term processing fee in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak, and social inventory of refined copper is high [7] Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price fluctuates. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly, increasing the expectation of supply contraction as high - cost inland production faces losses. However, in reality, supply contraction is insufficient, and the weakening of raw material prices weakens the price support. The futures price also faces pressure, so it is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices decline. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, short - term risk appetite decreases, but the long - term macro expectation remains positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. On the demand side, the initial - stage operating rate drops, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the positive macro expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to support the price [7][8][9] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support persists, and the price fluctuates downwards. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum remains high, and supply is tight. On the supply side, some manufacturers start the Spring Festival holiday early, and policies may restrict supply. On the demand side, the subsidy for car replacement decreases, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory accumulates. Overall, cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep the price relatively strong [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market weakens, and zinc prices decline again. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is room for a decline. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation changes due to Trump's nomination. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits decline. On the demand side, domestic consumption enters the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc exports continue, and inventory accumulation pressure is small. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [13] Lead - **View**: The weakening sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market competes with high cost support, and lead prices fluctuate. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium rises, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreases slightly. On the supply side, the production of recycled lead decreases due to environmental protection and profit factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders weaken, but automobile battery orders improve, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [18] Nickel - **View**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the overall supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. Policy - wise, Indonesia's potential policy changes have adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20] Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron drops slightly, and the stainless - steel futures market fluctuates. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: The cost side still has some support. The production in December decreased, and the planned production in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory accumulates. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [21] Tin - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, but short - term price volatility risks need to be vigilant. - **Logic**: Supply is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in some areas may be alleviated, while in others, it is still restricted. In the future, supply will be tight, and demand will continue to grow. However, in the short term, the strong US dollar, stable supply, and weakening bullish power may cause price fluctuations [23] Group 4: Market Monitoring Commodity Index - On February 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2401.01, down 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, down 0.99%; the industrial product index was 2300.28, down 0.97% [149] Non - ferrous Metal Index - On February 5, 2026, the index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [151]

美国就业市场显现疲软迹象加剧了美股、大宗商品及加密货币的回落，这推动投资者加大对美联储政策 宽松的押注，美债大幅上涨，收益率创下数月来最大跌幅。数据显示，周四，对美联储政策预期更为敏 感的短期美债领涨。两年期美债收益率下跌9个基点至3.46%，为1月8日以来最低水平，且创下自去年 10月以来的最大单日跌幅;三年期和五年期美债收益率也分别大跌10个基点。十年期美债收益率跌幅较 小，一度使两年期与十年期美债收益率之差扩大至接近73个基点，达到去年4月以来最阔水平，并逼近 2022年以来的最大陡峭程度。 周四就业市场数据公布后，掉期市场计入了更多美联储宽松预期 经济数据显示，美国企业裁员公告数量激增、初请失业金人数上升、就业岗位空缺下降。交易员将美联 储下一次降息的时间预期从7月提前至6月，并预计10月前将进行第二次降息。 与此同时，美股软件股抛售潮的延续令投资者转向美债以寻求避险。避险情绪同样提振了美元，美元指 数有望取得四周以来的首次周度上涨，并收于两周高位。 SEI Investments Corp.固定收益投资管理主管Sean Simko表示："就业数据是导火索，但市场在一段时间 内已经处于充分定价状态，现 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1105.760 | -35.9↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20255 | -3256.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 172,503.00 | -6041.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,766.00 | -1268.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 631,419.00 +168701.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,653,202.00 | +709989.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 104052 | 1020↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 412,459 | -10782↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1105.47 | -34.83↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 22,625.00 | 507.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -0.29 | 1.11 ...

昨日现货黄金开盘就出现大涨，盘中最高涨至5091.62美元/盎司，但在晚间一度跌至4853.59美元/盎司，后续又有所回升。 最终收报4963.54美元/盎司，涨幅0.36%。今日现货黄金暂时承压中，截至发稿，金价暂报4909.79美元/盎司，跌幅1.08%。 昨日金价波动主要是早间金价延续前一日的技术性反弹而冲高，后续受美伊重启核谈判影响，市场避险情绪降温，部分投 资者选择提前获利了结，金价急跌。不过疲软的美国经济数据和市场的逢低买盘情绪又支撑金价出现回升。 高级市场分析师Rania Gule指出，当前黄金市场仍然处于"测试底部"的阶段，投资者正通过价格波动验证前期技术性调整是 否充分释放风险。而从趋势结构看，黄金要实现突破性反弹并重返历史高位，需满足两大核心驱动因素之一：地缘冲突的 超预期升级或美联储货币政策转向宽松。 在经历昨日全线大涨后，今日国内黄金市场除菜百与上海中国黄金价格保持不变外，其余主流品牌金价均出现不同程度下 跌，市场热度有所降温。不过，金价整体区间依然维持在1508-1568元/克的高位，老凤祥以1568元/克的价格与其他品牌拉 开了差距。今日金店高低价差为60元/克，较昨日有所收窄。以 ...

2月5日，据ADP研究院发布的数据，美国私营部门1月新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.5万人， 亦低于修正后的前值（12月增幅由4.1万下修至3.7万）。若非教育及医疗服务业激增7.4万个岗位，整体 就业人数可能出现萎缩。分行业看，多个领域呈现收缩态势。其中，专业与商业服务业大幅减少5.7万 个职位，制造业亦削减8000个岗位。薪资增长保持平稳，在职员工工资同比增幅维持在4.5%。该报告 延续了2025年末以来的疲软趋势，表明就业市场维持"低招聘、低解雇"的僵持状态。值得注意的是，因 联邦政府部分停摆，原定于本周五发布的美国劳工统计局官方非农就业报告再度推迟，具体发布时间待 国会解决预算僵局后确定。 今日需要关注的数据有，欧元区12月零售销售月率、美国截至1月31日当周初请失业金人数和美国12月 耐用品订单月率修正值。此外，英国央行和欧洲央行晚间将公布利率决议，需要重点关注。 黄金/美元 黄金昨日震荡盘整，日线小幅收涨。美联储的降息预期重燃是支撑黄金持续反弹的主要原因。此外，时 段内美国表现疲软的"小非农"报告也对黄金构成了一定的支撑。不过，美元指数反弹限制了黄金的反弹 空间。亚市早盘，受获利回吐影响 ...

Core Conclusion - As of February 5, 2026, the spot price of gold in London is reported at $4934.51 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.53%. Domestic gold T+D prices are at 1109.5 yuan per gram, down 1.76%. The short-term price drop is attributed to technical corrections and market sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, gold prices are expected to show a "high-level oscillation upward" pattern, with a core range of $4800-$5400 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank gold purchases and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but caution is advised regarding inflation rebound and diminishing safe-haven sentiment [1]. Short-term Price Decline Reasons - The primary drivers of the recent gold price decline are technical corrections and short-term capital withdrawals. After a cumulative increase of over 60% in 2025, the RSI indicator reached an overbought zone at 85, leading to concentrated profit-taking. Additionally, market adjustments to the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have caused a temporary rebound in the dollar index, which has pressured gold prices [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy changes have an indirect impact on the price decline, primarily due to marginal adjustments in rate cut expectations. If economic data improves beyond expectations, the anticipated rate cuts may be delayed, leading to a short-term rise in the actual yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, increasing the holding costs of gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchasing trends have shown structural differentiation, which has not altered long-term support but has led to short-term adjustments. Monthly gold purchases are expected to remain high at 60-70 tons in 2026, with the People's Bank of China increasing holdings for 14 consecutive months, while some countries like Poland have paused purchases due to reserve limits [2]. Future Price Trends - The overall trend for gold prices in 2026 is expected to exhibit "high-level oscillation upward" characteristics, categorized into three scenarios: - Baseline scenario (50% probability) with a core range of $4800-$5400 per ounce, targeting $5000-$5100 by year-end, assuming a 75-100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a soft economic landing. - Optimistic scenario (30% probability) reaching $5400-$6000, potentially up to $6200-$6500, contingent on economic recession, rate cuts exceeding 150 basis points, and escalated geopolitical risks. - Pessimistic scenario (20% probability) retreating to $4150-$4800, with extreme lows of $4000, driven by inflation rebound or renewed rate hikes [3]. - The core logic supporting long-term gold price increases includes accelerated de-dollarization, an expanding supply-demand gap, and weakened U.S. dollar credibility due to rising national debt [3]. Quarterly Price Trends - Quarterly price movements are expected to follow a clear path: - Q1 (January-March) oscillating up to $5100-$5400, supported by initial rate cuts and seasonal demand. - Q2 (April-June) steadily rising to $5300-$5600, benefiting from further rate cuts and supply shortages. - Q3 (July-September) potentially breaking through $5600-$6000, reliant on rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and ETF dynamics. - Q4 (October-December) stabilizing at $5800-$6000, supported by year-end allocation demands and central bank purchasing [5]. Investment Practical Advice - Ordinary investors are advised to allocate 5%-15% of their total assets to gold. A phased investment approach is recommended as prices dip to the $4800-$5100 per ounce range, focusing on central bank purchases and U.S. dollar credit logic while ignoring short-term fluctuations [6]. - For different gold investment tools, low-premium options are preferred, with investment bars being the first choice. ETFs are suitable for liquidity and low cost, while futures are recommended for professional investors with caution regarding leverage risks [6].

Group 1: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's January CPI is reported at 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December and below the economist forecast of 1.8% [1][6] - Core CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%, and service sector CPI slowed to 3.2%, indicating easing price pressures across multiple sectors [1][6] - Inflation rates among the 21 EU member states show significant divergence, with Germany at 2.1% and France unexpectedly dropping to 0.4%, the lowest in five years [1][6] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy - The market widely expects the ECB to maintain the key interest rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] - The ECB is likely to reaffirm its assessment that monetary policy is "in a good place" [1][6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Commentary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the President has the authority to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][7] - The U.S. dollar index fell over 9% last year, with Yellen affirming support for a strong dollar policy, which contrasts with former President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar [2][7] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The U.S. dollar index showed slight gains, trading around 97.60, supported by short covering and better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI data [3][8] - The euro traded around 1.1800, facing pressure from the dollar's rebound and the lowest core inflation data in nearly five years [4][9] - The British pound traded around 1.3650, impacted by a stronger dollar and weak economic data from the UK [5][10]

【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略 金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。同时，该ETF是融资融券标的，是一键布局有色金属 板块的高效工具。 今日（2月5日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）随市盘整回调，场内价格现跌2.66%，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购1500万份， 昨天亦吸金1749万元，拉长时间来看，此前20日累计狂揽超12亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，持续进场布局！ 成份股方面，钢研高纳领涨超2%，宝钛股份涨逾1%，西部超导飘红，其余57股尽墨。湖南白银、白银有色跌超7%，湖南黄金、赣锋锂业等个股跌逾 3%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 = | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 ◇ ② | | 有色ETF华宇 | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 2026年02月05日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | ...

黄金市场上演了一场史诗级波动。 国际金价从逼近5600美元的历史高点狂泻至4400美元低点，单日暴跌9%，创下1980年以来最大跌 幅；白银单日重挫26%，市场恐慌情绪蔓延。 仅隔两个交易日，金价在2月3日暴力反弹6%，重回4900美元关口，2月4日亚洲早盘更是突 破5000美元大关。 这种急速下跌与反弹的节奏，让杠杆交易者经历了一场"多杀多"的踩踏与修复。 这场暴跌的导火索是美联储主席提名事件。 特朗普提名鹰派人物凯文·沃什接任美联储主席，其主张缩表控通胀的立场引发流动性收紧担 忧。 芝加哥商品交易所随即上调保证金要求，投机多头被迫平仓，形成"下跌-平仓-再下跌"的恶性循环。 同时，美元指数反弹压制了非 美货币持有者的黄金需求。 金价在1个月内暴涨25%，白银涨幅高达63%，这种短期涨幅已脱离传统估值框架。 方正证券分析师指出，黄金较2026年合理估值2990美 元/盎司高出80%，存在明显高估。 但另一方面，全球央行购金潮构筑了坚实底部。 2025年全球央行购金量达5002吨，中国央行连续15 个月增持，波兰计划新增150吨储备。 暴跌期间，SPDR黄金ETF单日流入12吨黄金，国泰黄金ETF近20日资金 ...