Core Viewpoint - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds in the third quarter has been announced, with a total of 11 bonds to be issued, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting market confidence and investment [1][3]. Issuance Schedule - In July, three bonds will be issued, including a 20-year bond on July 14 and a 30-year bond on the same day, both being first issuances [2] - In August, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on August 1 and a 30-year bond on August 22, with several renewals scheduled [2] - In September, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on September 10 and a 30-year bond on September 19, all with semi-annual interest payments [2] Issuance Scale - In the first half of the year, 9 ultra-long-term special government bonds were issued, totaling 555 billion yuan, which is 42.69% of the total issuance for the year, significantly higher than the 250 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The total issuance scale for the second half of the year is projected to be 745 billion yuan, with a concentration in the third quarter [2] Fiscal Policy Impact - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is set to increase to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, up by 300 billion yuan from last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support "two heavy" projects and 500 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The proactive fiscal policy aims to stimulate market confidence, social investment, and consumption, thereby enhancing market vitality [3][4] Consumption and Investment Support - The funding support for consumption goods replacement is set at 300 billion yuan, with previous allocations exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in sales for related products this year [4] - The first batch of funding for equipment updates has been allocated to approximately 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with ongoing project reviews for subsequent funding [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong growth of the passenger car market in China, driven by favorable government policies and regional disparities, with northern regions showing significant gains compared to southern regions [1][6][11]. Group 1: Passenger Car Market Trends - In 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars are expected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with a strong performance observed from February to May, maintaining a growth rate of around 13% [4][5]. - In May 2025, retail sales reached 1.932 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1%, with cumulative sales for the year at 8.811 million units, up 9.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 2: Regional Market Characteristics - The northern car market is showing a clear strength, with market share increasing by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year in May 2025, and by 2.1 percentage points compared to 2019 [7][8]. - The northeastern and northwestern regions are experiencing significant growth, while the southern regions, particularly the eastern and central areas, are lagging behind [6][8]. Group 3: Policy Impact on Market Structure - Government subsidies are favoring the development of low-end and economic vehicles, particularly benefiting A00 and A0 class electric vehicles in northern regions [1][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of policy fairness in promoting the adoption of small and micro electric vehicles, which is crucial for their widespread acceptance [1][9]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Market Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is showing strong performance, particularly in pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with traditional fuel vehicles still holding a significant share in the northern and midwestern regions [14][15]. - In May 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in regions like Hainan and Tianjin reached around 60%, indicating robust growth [14][15].

Macro Overview - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.7% [7][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [5][4] - The focus of structural monetary policy tools will be on technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market [5][4] Industrial Profit Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded a cumulative 4.97% from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.22 percentage points [8] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [11] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly in sectors related to new consumption and high-tech manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious stance on the bond market [13] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may provide a favorable environment for small-cap stocks, especially in the technology sector [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy continuity and the impact of international trade negotiations on domestic industries [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Ying Shi Innovation, a leader in the panoramic camera market, is projected to achieve revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.3% from 2022 to 2024 [27] - The company holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market, indicating strong competitive positioning [29] - The demand for smart imaging devices is diversifying, with applications in outdoor sports and vlogging, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Revenue Pressure Remains**: From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% (turning negative from +1.4% in January - April). This was mainly affected by demand - price weakness, short - term base effects, and a sharp decline in single - month growth. Positive signals include a 2.7% year - on - year increase in operating income and a 1.1% growth in gross profit. The equipment manufacturing industry's profit increased by 7.2%, contributing over 40%. However, inventory pressure persisted, with a 3.5% increase in finished - product inventory at the end of May and longer turnover and accounts - receivable collection days [3]. - **Structural Differentiation Intensifies**: In the equipment manufacturing industry, electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment benefited from "two new" policies, while railway, ship, aerospace equipment was driven by high - end orders. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, there was significant internal differentiation. Upstream industries were deeply adjusted, and the profit of the automotive manufacturing industry decreased. Private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4%, outperforming state - owned enterprises [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Profit Situation - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% due to multiple factors such as insufficient demand, falling industrial product prices, and short - term factor fluctuations. The high base of investment income in the same period last year pulled down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [2][3][29]. - The gross profit and operating income of industrial enterprises increased. The gross profit increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size by 3.0 percentage points. The operating income increased by 2.7% year - on - year, creating favorable conditions for future profit recovery [29]. 3.2 Industry Structure - **Equipment Manufacturing Industry**: From January to May, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year - on - year, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size by 2.4 percentage points. Seven out of eight industries in equipment manufacturing saw profit growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment growing by over 10% [3][30]. - **"Three - Aviation" Industries**: From January to May, the "three - aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and navigation) drove the profit of the railway, ship, and aerospace industry to increase by 56.0% year - on - year. Industries such as aircraft manufacturing, spacecraft and launch vehicle manufacturing, and related equipment manufacturing also had significant profit growth [30]. - **Consumer Goods Manufacturing Industry**: There was significant internal differentiation. The profit of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 38.2%, while the textile and chemical fiber industries were under pressure [4]. - **Upstream Industries**: The profit of coal mining and ferrous metal ore mining decreased significantly, with year - on - year declines of 50.6% and 45.6% respectively [4]. - **Automotive Manufacturing Industry**: The profit decreased by 11.9% year - on - year, and the new - energy transformation could not offset the decline of fuel - powered vehicles [4]. 3.3 Enterprise Types - Private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% year - on - year, significantly better than state - owned holding enterprises, which had a 7.4% year - on - year decline, highlighting the operational resilience of private enterprises [4]. - Foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3% year - on - year, higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above the designated size [33].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月27日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1395.5 | 1389 | 1422 | 1389 | 1421.5 | 2.52% | 28,193 | 53,145 | 1,846 | 0.79 | | JM2509 | 819.5 ...

Group 1: Credit Growth and Structure Improvement - In May, the loan scale maintained reasonable growth, with financial institutions directing more credit resources towards manufacturing and technological innovation sectors, while enhancing financial support for key service consumption industries such as accommodation, catering, and education [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, which is the highest monthly level in 2024, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The Agricultural Bank of China’s Yunnan branch has issued personal housing loans of 5.3 billion yuan in tourist cities within the province, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - The cultural and entertainment consumption sector has shown rapid growth, with significant increases in tourism and dining services, where restaurant income grew by 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first four months [3] - The banking sector has been actively promoting consumption through innovative financial services and expanding consumption scenarios, contributing to the enhancement of resident consumption quality [2][4] Group 3: Support for Equipment Upgrades - Macro policies have been effective in promoting demand expansion and production growth, with significant increases in the manufacturing value added of lithium-ion batteries (28.6%), shipbuilding (12.8%), and boiler and prime mover manufacturing (11.8%) in May [5] - The China Development Bank has increased its financial services to support the "Two New" policy, with a focus on technology innovation and equipment upgrades, including a 300 billion yuan increase in re-loan quotas for technological innovation and transformation [6][7] Group 4: Strengthening Foreign Trade Financial Support - In May, credit growth was stable, with a notable improvement month-on-month, supported by a series of financial policies including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8] - The Bank of Communications in Guangdong has launched a special action plan to support foreign trade, focusing on service improvement and innovation to help foreign trade enterprises cope with external challenges [8] - The Bank of China’s Shaanxi branch has introduced a dedicated service plan for the China-Europe Railway Express, providing financial support to logistics and freight forwarding companies along the route [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the acceleration of fiscal policy implementation, with a focus on increasing spending intensity and expediting expenditure progress to support people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and enhance economic resilience [1][4][7] Group 2 - In 2025, the national general public budget expenditure is set to increase by 1.2 trillion yuan, with an additional local government special debt limit of 500 billion yuan and a proposed issuance of super long-term special bonds increasing by 300 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - In the first five months, the national general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2%, with central government expenditure increasing by 9.4% and local expenditure by 3.4% [2] - Key areas such as social security, health, and education have seen significant expenditure growth, aligning with macro counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2][4] Group 3 - The structure of fiscal spending is continuously optimized, with strong support for key livelihood areas such as education, healthcare, and employment, showing respective growth rates of 9.2%, 6.7%, and 3.9% in the first five months [4][5] - The "Two New" policies are effectively stimulating domestic demand, with significant profit growth in related industries, such as a 10.6% increase in general equipment and a 101.5% increase in smart consumer device manufacturing [5] Group 4 - Experts anticipate that fiscal policy will accelerate the implementation of existing policies while planning for new incremental policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [7][8] - It is expected that an additional 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds will be raised in the second half of the year to counter external uncertainties and support consumption and investment [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that despite a decline in industrial enterprise profits in China for the first five months of the year, both gross profit and revenue continue to grow, indicating resilience and vitality in the industrial economy [1][3][4] - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, influenced by insufficient effective demand and declining industrial product prices [3][4] - Gross profit for industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profits, while operating revenue grew by 2.7% [3][4] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry has shown significant performance, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "three aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) experienced rapid growth, with profits in related sectors increasing by 56% year-on-year, driven by successful commercial operations and new achievements in the aerospace sector [4] - The implementation of the "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, with profits in general and specialized equipment sectors growing by 10.6% and 7.1% respectively [5][6] Group 3 - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises have maintained profit growth, with private enterprises seeing a 3.4% increase, outperforming the overall average by 4.6 percentage points [6] - As of the end of May, there were 185 million private economic organizations in China, accounting for 96.76% of total business entities, with private enterprises exceeding 58 million, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year increase [6] - The private sector is increasingly investing in technological innovation, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing, playing a crucial role in industrial upgrades and economic stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gradual recovery of industrial product prices and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies are expected to maintain a positive trend in domestic demand, leading to a slight recovery in the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises in the second half of the year, influenced by a low base from the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the first four months, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [1]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 9.1% [1]. - Despite the decline in profit, the gross profit and revenue of industrial enterprises continued to grow, with gross profit increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profit [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit of large-scale industrial enterprises [2]. - Among the eight industries in equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with significant increases in the electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment sectors, achieving year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced rapid growth, with profits increasing by 56.0% year-on-year, and the shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector saw an impressive profit growth of 85% [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The implementation of "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, leading to positive profit performance in related industries [3]. - The general and specialized equipment sectors benefited from large-scale equipment renewal policies, with profits increasing by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth [3]. - The outlook for the next phase suggests that with ongoing recovery in market conditions and industrial product prices, along with strengthened domestic demand policies, the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises may show slight recovery in the second half of the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China has shown a decline in the first five months of the year, with a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [1] Group 1: Profit Trends - In May, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since October of the previous year [3] - The profit growth rate for state-owned enterprises has significantly decreased, indicating a need for more supportive policies to assist struggling companies in their transformation [3] - The profit structure shows that investment income and other short-term factors contributed to a 1.7 percentage point decrease in profit growth for the first five months [1] Group 2: Revenue and Gross Profit - Despite the decline in profit, the gross profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point growth in overall profits [2] - The operating revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend that could support future profit recovery [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed a profit increase of 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [2] - The "Two New" policy effects are becoming evident, with profits in the general and specialized equipment sectors increasing by 10.6% and 7.1% respectively, together contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profits [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of industrial enterprise profits is expected to take time due to external shocks, low PPI, and insufficient domestic demand [4] - Future observations will focus on the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and the continuation of the "Two New" policies [4]