| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/5/12 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7786 7914 9335 2920 2484 8844 涨跌 26 -60 119 5 19 26 涨跌幅(%) 0.34% -0.75% -3.15% 0.17% 0.77% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 54 26 149 -214 1456 1242 前值 62 26 143 -316 1465 1149 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -49 217 367 1.14 2.66 4845 前值 -47 217 384 1.15 2.68 4912 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 ...

2025年05月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，正套离场 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：正套离场，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡有支撑 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：偏强运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：关税忧虑缓解内盘估值承压 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，短期仍有回弹趋势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘高低硫价差暂时小幅回撤 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：中美关税缓和，近月短期偏强；10-12反套轻仓持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡市， ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices fell significantly by over 40 dollars, currently reported at 3282 dollars per ounce [1] - US stock index futures opened higher by over 1%, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.5% and S&P 500 index futures up by 1.27% [1]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of the futures market as a "shock absorber" for the real economy, particularly in managing price volatility and risk for agricultural enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Risk Management Strategies - A combination strategy of "selling out-of-the-money call options + short positions" helped a cotton enterprise secure a premium of 117.5 yuan/ton, effectively locking in the upper limit of procurement costs [1][2] - Customized "Dalian soybean oil - U.S. soybean" swap solutions were developed to hedge against the price difference risk between imported soybeans and domestic products [1][2] - The launch of red dates futures led to a significant reduction in spot price volatility, from a range of 95,000 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, representing an 88% decrease, demonstrating the effectiveness of the "insurance + futures" model [1][2] Group 2: Service System Enhancements - The "three enhancements" service system by COFCO Futures focuses on strengthening basic training, talent development, and financial support to provide customized risk management solutions for enterprises [1][3] - The company is exploring a dual protection mechanism of "over-the-counter options + spot services" to better serve the operational stability of enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Challenges in Futures Market - Current challenges in the futures market include the difficulty for small and medium-sized enterprises to effectively utilize futures tools due to a lack of funds and professional talent [5] - There is a mismatch between contract design and enterprise needs, with regional and product differences affecting liquidity and demand [5] - The industry faces issues of poor competition, where capable futures companies struggle to reach industrial clients, exposing them to high-risk trading environments [5] Group 4: Education and Awareness - There is a need to enhance market education and trader awareness to overcome the perception of futures as "high risk," which remains prevalent among many enterprises [6] - A layered trader education system is proposed to provide differentiated educational solutions based on target group characteristics [6] - The establishment of immersive educational centers is suggested to facilitate a better understanding of the futures market's functions and risks through hands-on experiences [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with a goal of nationwide coverage by 2025. The "394" document encourages advanced provinces to transition to formal operations by the end of 2025, while non-pilot provinces like Shaanxi are expected to do so by mid-2026 [3][9][10] - New energy sources will face competitive challenges as they enter the market, creating significant development opportunities for third-party entities such as pumped storage and virtual power plants [3][10][12] - The outlook for the spot market construction indicates a comprehensive rollout from 2025 to 2026, with regulatory resources expected to benefit continuously [3][11][12] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In April, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.0% [13][14] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.80%, an increase of 3.50 percentage points compared to January-February [19][25] - The electricity consumption growth rate for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 9.90%, 3.80%, and 8.40% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 5.00% [19][25] Monthly Electricity Production Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity generation was 7780.20 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The breakdown by source shows a 2.30% decrease in thermal power generation, while hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar power saw increases of 9.50%, 23.00%, 8.20%, and 8.90% respectively [4][46][47] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have mandated that by the end of 2025, the electricity spot market should achieve basic nationwide coverage [4][8]

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 780.0 | 792.5 | -12.5 | -1.58% | | | 原木2509 | 794.5 | 803.0 | -8.5 | -1.06% | | | 原木2511 | 800.5 | 808.0 | -7.5 | -0.93% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -20.0 | -32.5 | 12.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -43.0 | 8.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -48.0 | 7.5 | | | | 日 ...

在全球经济波动加剧的2025年，现货黄金因其独特的属性，从而成为投资者资产配置的重要选择。不过投资黄金必定存在 一些投资者难以发现的风险，本文将深度解析现货黄金投资的核心风险，并基于行业数据与专业建议，为投资者提供科学 的风险管理框架。 非正规交易平台存在滑点、延迟成交甚至卷款跑路的风险。全球监管数据显示，2024年因平台问题导致的投资纠纷中， 63%涉及无牌照机构。投资者需选择如金荣中国等持有香港AA类牌照的平台，其资金由国际银行独立存管，并通过年度审 计确保透明度。 黄金价格受多重因素驱动，包括美联储货币政策、地缘冲突、美元指数波动等。例如，2025年初美联储暂停加息信号引发 金价单日波动超40美元，而中东局势紧张曾导致金价单周涨幅达8%。这种高波动性可能让缺乏经验的投资者面临短期巨幅 亏损。 2. 杠杆风险：收益放大器与亏损加速器 现货黄金普遍提供50-100倍杠杆，虽能放大收益，但极端行情下易触发强制平仓。数据显示，2024年因杠杆操作失误导致 的投资者损失占比高达37%。例如，金价若反向波动1%，100倍杠杆下本金可能瞬间清零。 3. 流动性风险：极端市场的隐形杀手 尽管黄金市场整体流动性较强，但在 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].

金属期权 2025-05-09 金属期权研究 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属盘整震荡，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系波动较大，适合构建卖 方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属多头趋势方向上高位震荡，构建牛市价差组合策略、做空波动率策略和现货避险策 略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2506 | 78,140 | 560 | 0.72 | 11.67 | -1.61 | 17.97 | 0.06 | | 铝 | AL2506 | 19,570 | 90 | 0.46 | 26.76 | 0.08 | 19.27 | -0.21 | | 锌 | ZN2506 | 22,340 | 60 | 0.27 | 22.21 | 6.61 | 11.99 | 0.32 | | 铅 | PB2 ...