Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent tariff rates imposed by the U.S. are lower than initially feared, alleviating concerns about a severe economic recession [1][2] - The actual tariff rates are expected to stabilize between 15% and 20%, which is significantly higher than earlier low single-digit levels but lower than the previously anticipated 25% [1][2] - Economists have reduced the recession risk from 60% to 40%, indicating a less pessimistic outlook due to strong global economic growth and a more relaxed financial environment [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in recession risk, there are still concerns that tariffs could suppress economic growth significantly [2] - The final outcome of the trade negotiations remains uncertain, with critical issues needing resolution before the August 1 deadline [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the impact of tariffs on inflation in their upcoming discussions, with a potential interest rate cut in September if economic conditions weaken [3]

Core Insights - Tyson Foods reported Q2 2023 financial results showing total sales of $13.133 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $13.62 billion, and a net loss of $910 million compared to a net profit of $833 million in the same period last year [2] - The company adjusted its full-year sales forecast down to between $53 billion and $54 billion, from a previous estimate of $55 billion to $57 billion, indicating challenges in consumer spending due to rising prices and high inflation [3] Financial Performance - Q2 total sales: $13.133 billion, compared to $13.117 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Q2 net loss: $910 million, down from a net profit of $833 million year-over-year [2] - GAAP diluted loss per share: $0.28, compared to earnings of $2.28 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Non-GAAP adjusted loss per share: $0.04, significantly below the analyst average expectation of earnings of $0.80 per share [2] Business Segment Performance - Beef segment sales: $4.617 billion, down from $5.034 billion year-over-year [2] - Pork segment sales: $1.421 billion, down from $1.565 billion year-over-year [2] - Chicken segment sales: $4.430 billion, up from $4.086 billion year-over-year [2] - Average sales prices for beef and pork products decreased by 5.4% and 10.3%, respectively [2] Market Conditions - Tyson Foods faces challenges in the protein market, with rising consumer prices and inflation impacting spending [3] - The company has lowered its adjusted operating profit expectations for all major segments due to economic uncertainty [3] - Increased product prices by meat processors are aimed at protecting profit margins amid rising costs for feed, labor, transportation, and commodities [3] - Economic recession concerns are leading consumers to opt for more affordable high-protein alternatives instead of pricier meats [3]

Group 1 - Schroders Investment remains optimistic about the stock market outlook, but is cautious about the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. due to the lagging effects of tariffs on the real economy [1] - The primary constraint on the stock market is the rising debt levels resulting from increased government spending, which affects the bond market's capacity [1] - Despite rising debt levels, Schroders still views bonds as a favorable source of returns rather than merely a diversification tool, with gold being the preferred option for portfolio diversification [1][3] Group 2 - Recent expansionary fiscal policies have supported nominal economic growth and corporate earnings, while populist policies may have a positive impact on the stock market [2] - The greatest threat to the economic outlook is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with the effective tariff rate expected to rise to 12%, the highest level since World War II [2] - The market's reaction to new tariff threats has been muted, indicating that investors may be underestimating the potential for significant tariff increases by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration continues to monitor the bond market, recognizing the importance of maintaining financial market stability, with inflation expectations remaining under control [3] - A notable steepening of the yield curve has been observed, with long-term bond yields rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market concerns about fiscal spending [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the bond market, and the succession plan for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be a focal point for investors [3] Group 4 - The dollar maintains unmatched liquidity in the global financial system, prompting many institutions to reassess their dollar allocation strategies [4] - Despite the high exposure to U.S. assets, there is a growing recognition of the need for diversification in investment portfolios [4] - Investors should focus on medium-term trends rather than overreacting to daily news, as the political and economic consensus has shifted, affecting the correlation between different asset classes [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]

Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on July 21, closing at $3,397.91 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,401.44 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.43 tons, bringing the total to 947.06 tons [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, worse than the market expectation of -0.2% [2] - The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index weakened, with the diffusion index remaining below 50 for the third consecutive month, signaling a recession [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the year, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact in the second half [2] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine and Russia are set to hold the next round of peace talks in Turkey, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [5] - Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected a multi-national joint statement regarding the Gaza conflict, emphasizing Hamas's responsibility for the ongoing violence [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is at 97.4%, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] - The outlook for the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [4]

2025.07. 22 周一美股涨跌互现，投资者关注明星科技股财报表现，并寄希望于各方能达成贸易协议，以减轻特朗 普政府全球关税对经济造成的损害。 截至收盘，道指跌19.12点，跌幅为0.04%，报44323.07点，纳指涨78.52点，涨幅为0.38%，报 20974.17点， 盘中首次迎来21000点里程碑 ，标普500指数涨8.81点，涨幅为0.14%，报6305.60 点，收盘首次站上6300点。标普500指数和纳指均创收盘新高纪录。 明星科技股涨多跌少，谷歌涨2.7%，亚马逊涨1.4%，Meta Platforms涨1.2%，苹果涨0.6%，微软 平盘，特斯拉跌0.3%，英伟达跌0.6%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数跌0.2%。拼多多涨2.4%，百度涨1.1%，网易涨0.9%，阿里巴巴平盘，京东 跌1.5%。 尽管美国总统特朗普的关税谈判最后期限8月1日不断临近，美股最近频频创下新高，因为投资者认 为关税对经济的影响可能不像以前担心的那么可怕。 在美国商务部长卢特尼克上周日表示对与欧盟达成贸易协议充满信心后，投资者预计贸易谈判将取得 一些进展。然而，欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成突破性协议的希望逐渐渺茫 ...

标普500指数收盘站上6300点。 *三大股指分化，标普500指数涨0.14%； 纳斯达克金龙中国指数跌0.2%。拼多多涨2.4%，百度涨1.1%，网易涨0.9%，阿里巴巴平盘，京东跌 1.5%。 尽管美国总统特朗普的关税谈判最后期限8月1日不断临近，美股最近频频创下新高，因为投资者认为关 税对经济的影响可能不像以前担心的那么可怕。 在美国商务部长卢特尼克上周日表示对与欧盟达成贸易协议充满信心后，投资者预计贸易谈判将取得一 些进展。然而，欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成突破性协议的希望逐渐渺茫，由27个成员国组成的 联盟正在探索一套更广泛的针对美国的反制措施。 经济数据方面，美国咨商会6月领先经济指数下降0.3%，报98.8，符合预期。咨商会商业周期指标高级 经理拉莫妮卡（Justyna Zabinska LaMonica）表示："尽管预计2025年的经济增长将比2024年大幅放缓， 咨商会预测不会发生经济衰退。 今年实际GDP预计将增长1.6%，随着价格上涨导致消费者支出放缓， 关税的影响在下半年变得更加明显。" 此外，投资者将密切关注周四公布的失业救济申请人数和7月PMI。人们还将密切分析美联储主席鲍威 ...

金十数据7月21日讯，美国谘商会领先指标在5月录得没有变化后，6月录得下降0.3%至98.8,。谘商会高 级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示："6月份美国领先指标进一步下滑。连续第二个月，股市上涨成 为支撑该指标的主要因素。但这不足以抵消仍然很低的消费者预期、制造业新订单疲弱以及初请失业金 人数连续第三个月上升的影响。此外，领先经济指数的六个月增长率走弱，而过去六个月的扩散指数仍 低于50，连续第三个月触发衰退信号。尽管预计2025年的经济增长将比2024年大幅放缓，目前谘商会并 未预测经济衰退。预计今年实际GDP增长1.6%，关税影响将在下半年愈发明显，同时由于物价上涨， 消费者支出将趋于放缓。" 美国谘商会6月领先指标略有下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo's latest report highlights a concerning recession signal hidden behind seemingly optimistic U.S. economic data, specifically a decline in discretionary service spending, which has only decreased during or immediately following economic recessions over the past 60 years [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has been revised down significantly from an initial growth estimate of 2.4% to just 0.6% [1] - As of May, service spending has decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, with specific declines in transportation spending by 1.1% and a dramatic drop in air travel spending by 4.7% [1] - Households are delaying car repairs, reducing ride-sharing usage, and cutting back on air travel expenses, indicating financial strain [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Insights - Despite stable growth in non-discretionary goods, the report suggests that this growth may be misleading due to preemptive purchases made before tariff increases [2] - Many companies have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, allowing them to temporarily absorb cost pressures without passing them on to consumers [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on economic outlook, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to weak employment data, while others believe the economy remains resilient [2]