来源：智通财经网 最新的"小非农"数据显示，美国私营企业们1月新增就业岗位远远低于经济学家们普遍预期，表明年初美国劳动力市场继续放 缓。根据ADP研究机构(ADP Research)周三发布的美国私营部门就业数据(该项数据号称"小非农")，在对前一个月数据向下进行 小幅修正后，1月份的美国私营部门就业人数仅仅增加了2.2万人，远远低于4.8万人这一经济学家们多次下调后的预测中值，并 且低于机构调查所覆盖的经济学家们给出的最低增长预期。"小非农"公布之后，"CME美联储观察工具"显示6月与12月降息概率 均有所扩张。 另一方面，对于上周五创下40年来最猛烈跌幅且波动率罕见超越比特币的全球传统避险资产——黄金而言，大幅低于预期的美 国就业数据可谓利多金价。就业市场意外走弱，进而意味着市场更愿意押注降息/更鸽牌的美联储货币政策路径，也即意味着名 义/实际利率下行趋势以及美元走弱趋势，进而推动持有无息资产黄金的机会成本下降，从而利多金价;这一机制在黄金牛市主题 交易中经常出现，即弱就业数据带动降息押注、压低收益率从而推升金价。 由于之前部分联邦政府机构停摆，美国劳工统计局(简称BLS)编制的美国官方非农就业数据被推迟 ...

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 2月4日，黄金消息面解析：周三（2月4日）亚市时段，现货黄金连续第二日获得后续买盘支撑，在全球 避险情绪推动下震荡走强，现交投于每盎司5080美元附近，日内涨幅约2.7%。此前隔夜有报道称美国 在阿拉伯海击落一架伊朗无人机，引发市场对美伊紧张局势升级的担忧，促使投资者转向传统避险资 产，这为黄金价格提供了支撑。美联储降息预期进一步助推了金价涨势，这抑制了美元从四年低点反弹 的势头，成为提振无息资产黄金的另一关键因素。经历最新一轮上涨后，金价已从周一触及的4400美元 附近（近四周低点）反弹超过650美元。目前交易者正关注即将公布的美国ADP就业数据和ISM服务业 PMI，以寻求新的交易动能。 黄金技术面分析：当前黄金经过三天大跌1100美金后，反弹幅度已达50%，4950-5000区域是核心压力 位，也是多空分水岭：站稳5000则短线还有反弹空间，若无法有效突破，必然迎来二次回测，后续下行 风险依旧显著。而白银同步走出极端行情，三天大跌50美金，高位121的实物多单，大概率长期难解 救，这更印证了当前行情的控盘属性，绝非普通技术面能预判。目前黄金技术性反抽的首要压力区已上 移至5000 ...

今日黄金价格大涨，黄金回收价格同样，考虑到不同品牌回收价差也较大，以下为部分金店回收参考价： 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2026年2月4日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 1128.00 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 1171.00 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 1159.60 | | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 1096.00 | | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 1097. 89 | | 元/克 | 今日国内黄金市场迎来强劲上涨行情，主流品牌金店金价结束分化走势，昨日逆势下跌的菜百与上海中国黄金也加入上涨 行列。今日金价区间上移至1508-1576元/克，金店高低价差则维持在68元/克。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年2月4日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1571 | 元/克 | 73 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1564 | 元/克 ...

周三，日元对美元延续四日下跌态势，亚洲时段跌至近两周低点，推动美元兑日元突破156.00关键关口，汇率走势受多重因素交织影响，短期多空博弈态势 凸显。 日元持续走弱的核心诱因集中在财政与政治层面。日本首相推行的扩张性支出及减税政策，引发市场对日本财政健康状况的担忧。日本政府债务总额已处于 高位，大规模支出与减税计划进一步加剧公共财政压力，叠加2月8日提前选举带来的政治不确定性，持续削弱市场对日元的信心，成为推动汇率上行的主要 动力。 美元走势偏弱则制约了美元兑日元的上涨空间。尽管有美联储主席提名及政府拨款方案落地等利好支撑，但市场对美联储2026年再降息两次的预期，未能吸 引投资者大量买入美元，美元难以延续此前反弹态势，间接限制了汇率上行幅度。当前市场聚焦美国ADP私营部门就业报告及ISM服务业PMI数据，叠加美 联储官员言论，将进一步影响美元需求，左右汇率走势。 技术面来看，美元兑日元短期上行动能有所减弱。汇率突破156.00关口，延续了此前的反弹走势，相对强弱指数处于66.9，未进入超买区间，与当前涨势匹 配。但MACD柱状图持续收缩，显示看涨动能放缓，短期需关注156.51关键阻力位，该位置叠加100周 ...

作者：春天来了 相较实物金条，该基金免去保管费、鉴定费与折价变现成本，交易门槛低至1手（约10元），是个人与 机构配置黄金资产的高效载体。 导语：黄金基金ETF（518800）成为2026年避险资产的核心配置工具。 摘要：根据Wind数据显示，截至2026年2月3日，黄金基金ETF（518800） 以390.93亿元的规模稳居国内 黄金ETF市场第二，近一年年化收益率达78.56%，单位净值为10.36元，成为投资者参与黄金牛市的核 心工具。 在地缘政治紧张、全球央行持续增持、美联储降息预期未改的宏观背景下，黄金基金ETF（518800）展 现出极强的流动性、跟踪效率与配置价值。 一、产品机制与底层资产：100%实物黄金支撑，精准跟踪国内金价 黄金基金ETF（518800）成立于2013年7月29日，是首批上市的黄金ETF之一，其投资范围严格限定于 上海黄金交易所挂盘交易的Au99.99现货合约，持仓比例不低于基金资产的90%。每1份基金份额对应约 0.01克实物黄金，实现100%实物背书，规避纸黄金的信用风险。 业绩比较基准：上海黄金交易所Au99.99合约价格 跟踪误差（近1年）：3.32%（2025年2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].

当地时间2月3日，美股三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.84%，纳指跌1.43%。美国科技七巨头指数跌1.62%，微软、英伟达跌近3%。 大宗商品市场方面，贵金属重拾涨势。当地时间2月3日，COMEX黄金期货涨6.83%，报4970.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.27%，报84.92美元/盎 司。 美股三大股指全线收跌 当地时间2月3日，美股三大股指全线收跌。数据显示，截至收盘，道指跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.84%，纳指跌1.43%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.62%。个股方面，微软、英伟达跌近3%，Meta跌超2%。 特朗普称正与伊朗进行谈判 央视新闻消息，当地时间2月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署政府拨款法案时表示，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续，伊朗方面有意愿采取行动。 特朗普称，与伊朗方面"正在进行谈判"，并希望能够达成某种结果。他表示不能透露会在哪里与伊朗会谈，并称"与伊朗的会晤不止一次"。 特朗普称，相关方此前曾有机会达成协议但未能成功，他不希望再次出现类似去年对伊实施"午夜之锤"军事行动的情况。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃3日表示，"谈判计 ...

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [2] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced the largest increase [2] - Commodities saw a significant rise in oil prices, while gold and silver experienced notable pullbacks [2] - The dollar depreciated, while the British pound and Japanese yen appreciated, and the Chinese yuan depreciated [2] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices showing rising volatility [2] - Trading volumes in A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stocks increased, while South Korean stock trading volume decreased [2] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong stocks rose and is at historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment is also at historical highs [2] - Volatility increased in Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [2] - Valuations in both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week [3] - As of January 30, 2026, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised from -2.1% to -2.0% for 2025 [3] - The S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from +10.5% to +11.8% [3] - The Eurozone STOXX 50's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from -4.5% to -4.4% [3] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - The European economic surprise index also improved, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [3] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by real estate and service consumption policy expectations, as well as improved Sino-British relations [3] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations [4] - As of January 30, the market anticipates 2.1 rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [4] - Global liquidity saw significant inflows into mainland China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe last week, with the largest inflow into Hong Kong stocks coming from the Stock Connect [4]

贵金属市场巨震 黄金白银持续反弹，今日，上海黄金交易所也出手了，调整了黄金、白银期货相关保证金水平和涨跌停 板比例。 上金所：调整涨跌停板 据上海黄金交易所通知，白银期货部分，2026年2月3日（星期二）自收盘清算时起，Ag(T+D)合约的保 证金水平从26%调整为23%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从25%调整为22%。 黄金期货部分，自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au （T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易 日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120,000元调整至每手150,000元。 由于需求火热，部分型号的投资金条已经售罄，工作人员也在加紧备货。 "贵金属多年走强的基本面仍在" 业内人士表示，此次黄金价格冲高回落，呈现宽幅震荡走势。短期存在回调压力，但长期来看，央行持 续购金、美联储降息预期及地缘避险需求支撑仍然存在。 有分析师称，"黄金连续三天暴跌，很大程度上就是一次早该发生的回调；但推动贵金属多年走强的基 本面仍在，因此不支持贵金属出现持续性大跌 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月03日16时33分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨0.63%，沪银主力收跌16.71%，铂金主力收涨3.54%，钯金主力收涨涨8.62%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期放缓 。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。特朗普称俄对乌部分地 区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预 期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联 储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④ 商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧 性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...