往期推荐 腾讯"元宝分10亿"活动2月1日0点正式开启，用户最高可领万元现金红 包，官方攻略发布 亚马逊官宣裁撤1.6万个职位 当天，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格一度跌至每桶62.30美元，4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度跌至每桶66.30美元，与前一交易日 收盘价相比跌幅均超过3%。 分析人士认为，随着市场对美国可能对伊朗发动军事打击的预期减弱，投资者卖出多头头寸，油价随之回调 来源：新华社 记者：刘亚南 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 受地缘政治因素影响，纽约原油期货价格2月1日开始新一周交易后出现显著下跌行情。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a collective decline, with the main copper futures contract hitting the limit down at 98,580.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.01% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a surge in gold and silver prices, while the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has caused significant declines in precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from South American mines have intensified, while domestic copper production remains high due to the availability of scrap copper as a smelting raw material [2] Group 2 - Domestic copper inventories as of February 2 were reported at 340,800 tons, showing a decrease of 600 tons from January 26 but an increase of 5,000 tons from January 29 [2] - The overall smelting output continues to grow despite a slight month-on-month decline in profits, indicating a potential adjustment phase for copper prices in the short term [3] - Key factors to monitor include changes in the U.S. dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊 投资咨询证号：Z0021546 今天商品期货市场延续周五的大幅调整模式，截至发稿，贵金属有色多品种跌停，原油价格也在午后开 盘不久触及跌停。那么原油长短期因素需要关注哪些方面？化工板块此前的反弹还能延续吗？ 目前来看，短期原油市场关键的博弈点仍在伊朗局势的地缘走向，而中长期来看，供应过剩的压力或仍 将是影响油价的核心因素。此外，短期油价的反弹幅度已经接近去年6月伊以冲突带来的风险溢价幅 度，需注意承压风险。但如果地缘局势发生超预期情况，油价波动或仍将存在不确定性。后市可关注供 应端变化，包括主要生产国产量政策及地缘对供应端的影响。盘面上看，油价快速下跌，小时级别下破 多根均线，可参考下方震荡区间附近的支撑作用。 信息来源：文华财经 对于其他化工品种来说，此前上涨的主要驱动包括地缘紧张局势下原油反弹带来的成本端支撑、北美地 区寒潮天气引发能源价格抬升以及盘面上板块的轮动效应等。当前油价快速回落，成本支撑或有所松 动，另外春节前后需注意下游需求的验证情况，短期部分品种价格或受承压。而对于后市来说，今年 的"反内卷"预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for butadiene rubber is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Butadiene has strong fundamental support, while cis - butadiene rubber faces profit and inventory pressures, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. With high bullish sentiment from macro and capital factors, both futures and spot prices are rising. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of reduced production at cis - butadiene plants, and trading volume among traders and downstream users is decreasing. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 12,800 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to rise further [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose significantly and then oscillated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,100 yuan/ton. The increase was mainly due to the tight supply and rising prices of overseas butadiene resources, as well as the positive commodity market atmosphere. However, downstream users showed resistance to high prices, and the production of some northern private cis - butadiene rubber plants was reduced due to losses. Overall, the domestic production volume changed little [6] 3.2 Influence Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%; the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. Some butadiene plants remained shut down, while some restarted, and the weekly production increased. For cis - butadiene rubber, the plant of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, but attention should be paid to the operating load of private plants in North China due to poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, agents made small - scale purchases at the end of the month, but the sales in the distribution channels and at the terminal were weak, inventory consumption was slow, and social inventory increased. For all - steel tires, the market remained sluggish in the second half of the month, with weak sales in distribution channels and at the terminal. Merchants focused on collecting payments, and the promotional policies of some brands were ineffective. Downstream users were cautious about purchasing and mostly postponed their procurement until after the festival [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 40,500 tons, a 17.39% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber among enterprises and traders was 34,430 tons, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week. The port inventory of butadiene increased due to the arrival of imported ships, while the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at production enterprises decreased due to production losses and reduced operating loads, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [4] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 890 yuan/ton, in East China was - 790 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 790 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU and BR was 2,970 yuan/ton; the spread between NR and BR was - 155 yuan/ton; the price ratio of BR to SC was - 0.41% [4] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was 1,918 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction was 3,512.64 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 418 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.12% [4] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group were restructured. Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine region escalated due to the US's attack on Iran. The natural gas price soared by 60% due to the cold wave, and oil and gas prices rose in the short - term. Incidents such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers also increased market panic about geopolitics [4] 3.3 Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips and follow the market and capital trends. For arbitrage, the strategy is to go long on BR and short on NR/RU [4] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties of Synthetic Rubber - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends for crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties over 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [11] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown status of butadiene plants and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2026, including production enterprises, maintenance capacity, shutdown time, and expected startup time [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - In January, the stock ETF market experienced significant outflows, totaling over 790 billion yuan, with a notable net outflow of 37.20 billion yuan on January 30 alone [1][5][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 2%, closing down 0.96% at 4117 points, with most industry sectors declining, while communication, electronics, and agriculture sectors showed gains [2][3]. - The total net outflow for all stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) in January reached 795.67 billion yuan [5]. - The largest inflows were seen in thematic ETFs such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, electric grid equipment, and satellite ETFs, while broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF and SSE 50 ETF faced significant outflows [6][7]. Group 2: Specific ETF Data - On January 30, the SGE Gold 9999 index had the highest net inflow of 16.24 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index saw the largest outflow of 73.23 billion yuan [3]. - Over the past five days, the SGE Gold 9999 index attracted over 20.2 billion yuan, and the chemical sector saw inflows exceeding 9.9 billion yuan [3]. - Leading fund companies like Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows in their non-ferrous metals ETF and chip ETF, with net inflows of 1.134 billion yuan and 430 million yuan, respectively [3]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The chemical industry ETF from E Fund saw a net inflow of 390 million yuan, while the chip ETF from E Fund had a net inflow of 170 million yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical uncertainties and rising nationalism may drive resource commodities into a super cycle, with metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tungsten, and cobalt being particularly noteworthy [9]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as steel, building materials, chemicals, and silicon materials, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [9].

Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

原油周报 (1.26-1.30) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.74美元，周涨7.28%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.83美元， 周涨6.71%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至470元/桶，周涨6.36%。美国总统特朗普重申对伊朗的威胁，一支舰队正驶向伊朗，希望伊朗能同美 国达成协议。伊朗方面则表示，邻国领土若被用于针对伊朗的敌对行动，这些邻国将被视为敌对方。此外，俄乌局势方面，周内乌克兰、美国 和俄罗斯代表团在阿布扎比举行三方会谈，与会各方在军事问题上取得一定进展，但在领土问题上仍未达成任何决定。地缘 ...

政府关门的钟声还未敲响，特朗普却已经迫不及待地开始敲打键盘。1月28日，他在《华尔街日报》上挥笔疾书，撂下了一句从未见过这样的情况，将矛头 直指中国，仿佛旧账新算就能掩盖眼前财政赤字的窘迫。然而，这场气势汹汹的胜利演讲，究竟真的是数据背后的胜利，还是一场看似雄壮的虚晃？ 特朗普这一番言辞并非由赢家发声。他想让美国民众相信，他正在领导着一场胜利。他所引用的数据看起来相当有说服力：他宣称，中国在美国进口中的份 额持续下降，达到了2001年以来的最低点。听上去，这无疑是一记漂亮的反击，但如果深挖下去，就会发现，这个说法似乎只讲了一部分的真相。那么现实 到底是怎样的呢？根据官方数据，中国2025年全年贸易顺差将达到1.2万亿美元。这哪儿像是失败者的样子？反倒是美国，2025年全球贸易逆差预计超过1.2 万亿美元。这个逆差搬家的游戏，让人不禁联想到儿时玩积木：明明前方堆不起来，只能把它移到后面，可整体的结构依然崩塌。 那么，特朗普为何急于发文呢？他想传递的信号并不是给中国，而是给美国最高法院。此时，法院正在审理对等关税的合法性问题。如果特朗普败诉，美国 可能需要退还近10个月以来的全球加征关税，金额大约为3000亿美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual varieties, ratings such as "cautious short", "bullish rebound", "sideways with a bullish bias", etc. are given [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the price is volatile and bullish due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but there is still downward pressure in the long - term as the supply - surplus pattern remains and the demand off - season arrives [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - side factors drive a rebound, with geopolitical impacts on oil prices and Saudi's CP contract price increase [1] - **L**: The uptrend continues as the inventory of the upstream is at a relatively low level, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes [14][17] - **PP**: The uptrend continues before the Spring Festival, with high - level maintenance reducing upstream inventory, but the fundamental supply - demand is weak [18][21] - **PVC**: It is sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term due to strong export orders, but there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [22][25] - **PTA**: The fundamental expectation is positive, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26][28] - **MEG**: Supply - demand is loose, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [29][30] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [32][34] - **Urea**: It rebounds in the short - term with cost support and strong supply - demand, but be cautious about chasing up as the downstream demand enters the off - season [37][38] - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and the upside of gas prices is limited [41][43] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of the futures is high, and there may be a short - term correction [45][48] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [50][53] - **Soda Ash**: The operation is bearish and sideways with a decline in the operating rate [54][57] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent decreased by 0.39%, and domestic SC increased by 3.40% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical factors in the Middle East lead to an increase in geopolitical premium; in the long - term, the supply is in surplus during the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating rapidly [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting and continued to suspend production increases in March. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. The impact of the cold wave in the US is decreasing, and US crude oil production is gradually rising. India's diesel exports to West Africa reached a record high in December, and its crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The range for SC is [460 - 480] [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the PG main contract closed at 4353 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4480 (+60) yuan/ton, 4428 (+15) yuan/ton, and 4840 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [11] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost - side oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is weak with inventory accumulation [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for further compression as the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. In the short - term, the cost - side oil price is uncertain. The range for PG is [4300 - 4400] [13] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price decreased by 0.5%. The L05 basis was - 174 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has dropped to a low level in the same period. The uptrend continues, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes. The production is expected to increase this week, and the basis has dropped to a low level in the same period [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for L is [7000 - 7200] [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price decreased by 0.7%. The PP05 basis was - 108 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Basic Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly trading on expectations. High - level maintenance has significantly reduced upstream inventory, and the uptrend continues. The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 21%, reducing supply pressure [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PP is [6800 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price increased by 3.4%. The V05 basis was - 283 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 122 yuan/ton [23][24] - **Basic Logic**: Export orders are strong, and enterprise inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. In the short - term, it is sideways with a bullish bias. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling, and the cost support of marginal devices has improved. However, there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PVC is [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 30th, TA05 closed at 5270, at the 90.5% quantile level in the past three months. The basis was 20 (+102) yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was - 12 (+6) yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device is under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January and February. However, the fundamental expectation is positive [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract on dips. The range for TA05 is [5220 - 5420] [28] MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased by 37 yuan/ton. The basis was - 99 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 105 (-8) yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and port inventory is accumulating [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. The range for EG05 is [3860 - 3980] [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 235 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 60 (+20) [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly. Although the fundamentals are relatively loose, geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America have led to a short - term increase in overseas natural gas costs, which is bullish [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. The range for MA05 is [2280 - 2350] [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1788 (+12) yuan/ton, at the 73.3% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 28 (-2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 25 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply is under pressure as the production of previously maintained devices has resumed. Demand is strong in the short - term, but the downstream demand is entering the off - season [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for UR05 is [1780 - 1810] [40] LNG - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, the NG main contract closed at 3.878 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 4.16% increase [42] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave in the US on gas prices has weakened, and the upside of gas prices is limited. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for NG is [3.556 - 4.050] [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the BU main contract closed at 3424 yuan/ton, a 1.55% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [47] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt raw materials has increased, and the oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical factors, but the basis is weak, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. The range for BU is [3400 - 3500] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased by 2.9%. The FG05 basis was - 36 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly decreased at a high level. The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the reduction in supply [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for FG is [1050 - 1100] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased by 1.6%. The SA05 basis was - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [55][56] - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the operating rate has decreased. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for SA is [1200 - 1250] [57]