除了宏观政策面的风向突变，交易层面的因素也放大了波动。在1月份价格飙升至历史高位的过程中， 黄金的相对强弱指数（RSI）等技术指标已进入严重超买区间，积累了巨大的获利了结压力。早期涌入 的投机资金与高杠杆交易盘在价格转向时集中平仓，引发了连锁式的技术性抛售。其中，白银因市场规 模相对较小、金融与工业属性交织且投机资金参与度更高，其价格波动较黄金更为剧烈。 针对后市走向，光大期货认为，贵金属价格剧烈调整是对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫 和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋 势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期驱动逻辑依然完整。进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观、 政策信号与地缘事件驱动寻求贵金属的支撑点，波动率仍将维持高位，但各品种将走向分化。 从长周期来看，国联期货表示，贵金属整体趋势依然稳定。在全球秩序重构大势不可逆、地缘政治仍处 于高度不确定性、全球信用货币体系重构（美元信用松动）的长期宏观趋势背景下，黄金作为重要储备 资产，在避险、货币对冲及抗通胀的配置需求支持下，仍将维持强势格局。而白银在全球战略资产储备 需求升温、结构性供需缺口长期存在 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]

往期推荐 腾讯"元宝分10亿"活动2月1日0点正式开启，用户最高可领万元现金红 包，官方攻略发布 亚马逊官宣裁撤1.6万个职位 当天，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格一度跌至每桶62.30美元，4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度跌至每桶66.30美元，与前一交易日 收盘价相比跌幅均超过3%。 分析人士认为，随着市场对美国可能对伊朗发动军事打击的预期减弱，投资者卖出多头头寸，油价随之回调 来源：新华社 记者：刘亚南 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 受地缘政治因素影响，纽约原油期货价格2月1日开始新一周交易后出现显著下跌行情。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a collective decline, with the main copper futures contract hitting the limit down at 98,580.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.01% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a surge in gold and silver prices, while the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has caused significant declines in precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from South American mines have intensified, while domestic copper production remains high due to the availability of scrap copper as a smelting raw material [2] Group 2 - Domestic copper inventories as of February 2 were reported at 340,800 tons, showing a decrease of 600 tons from January 26 but an increase of 5,000 tons from January 29 [2] - The overall smelting output continues to grow despite a slight month-on-month decline in profits, indicating a potential adjustment phase for copper prices in the short term [3] - Key factors to monitor include changes in the U.S. dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊 投资咨询证号：Z0021546 今天商品期货市场延续周五的大幅调整模式，截至发稿，贵金属有色多品种跌停，原油价格也在午后开 盘不久触及跌停。那么原油长短期因素需要关注哪些方面？化工板块此前的反弹还能延续吗？ 目前来看，短期原油市场关键的博弈点仍在伊朗局势的地缘走向，而中长期来看，供应过剩的压力或仍 将是影响油价的核心因素。此外，短期油价的反弹幅度已经接近去年6月伊以冲突带来的风险溢价幅 度，需注意承压风险。但如果地缘局势发生超预期情况，油价波动或仍将存在不确定性。后市可关注供 应端变化，包括主要生产国产量政策及地缘对供应端的影响。盘面上看，油价快速下跌，小时级别下破 多根均线，可参考下方震荡区间附近的支撑作用。 信息来源：文华财经 对于其他化工品种来说，此前上涨的主要驱动包括地缘紧张局势下原油反弹带来的成本端支撑、北美地 区寒潮天气引发能源价格抬升以及盘面上板块的轮动效应等。当前油价快速回落，成本支撑或有所松 动，另外春节前后需注意下游需求的验证情况，短期部分品种价格或受承压。而对于后市来说，今年 的"反内卷"预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for butadiene rubber is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Butadiene has strong fundamental support, while cis - butadiene rubber faces profit and inventory pressures, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. With high bullish sentiment from macro and capital factors, both futures and spot prices are rising. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of reduced production at cis - butadiene plants, and trading volume among traders and downstream users is decreasing. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 12,800 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to rise further [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose significantly and then oscillated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 12,300 to 13,100 yuan/ton. The increase was mainly due to the tight supply and rising prices of overseas butadiene resources, as well as the positive commodity market atmosphere. However, downstream users showed resistance to high prices, and the production of some northern private cis - butadiene rubber plants was reduced due to losses. Overall, the domestic production volume changed little [6] 3.2 Influence Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%; the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [unspecified] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. Some butadiene plants remained shut down, while some restarted, and the weekly production increased. For cis - butadiene rubber, the plant of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, but attention should be paid to the operating load of private plants in North China due to poor profitability [4] 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, agents made small - scale purchases at the end of the month, but the sales in the distribution channels and at the terminal were weak, inventory consumption was slow, and social inventory increased. For all - steel tires, the market remained sluggish in the second half of the month, with weak sales in distribution channels and at the terminal. Merchants focused on collecting payments, and the promotional policies of some brands were ineffective. Downstream users were cautious about purchasing and mostly postponed their procurement until after the festival [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 40,500 tons, a 17.39% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber among enterprises and traders was 34,430 tons, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week. The port inventory of butadiene increased due to the arrival of imported ships, while the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at production enterprises decreased due to production losses and reduced operating loads, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [4] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 890 yuan/ton, in East China was - 790 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 790 yuan/ton [4] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU and BR was 2,970 yuan/ton; the spread between NR and BR was - 155 yuan/ton; the price ratio of BR to SC was - 0.41% [4] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was 1,918 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction was 3,512.64 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 418 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 3.12% [4] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group were restructured. Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine region escalated due to the US's attack on Iran. The natural gas price soared by 60% due to the cold wave, and oil and gas prices rose in the short - term. Incidents such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers also increased market panic about geopolitics [4] 3.3 Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips and follow the market and capital trends. For arbitrage, the strategy is to go long on BR and short on NR/RU [4] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties of Synthetic Rubber - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends for crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties over 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [11] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown status of butadiene plants and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2026, including production enterprises, maintenance capacity, shutdown time, and expected startup time [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - In January, the stock ETF market experienced significant outflows, totaling over 790 billion yuan, with a notable net outflow of 37.20 billion yuan on January 30 alone [1][5][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 2%, closing down 0.96% at 4117 points, with most industry sectors declining, while communication, electronics, and agriculture sectors showed gains [2][3]. - The total net outflow for all stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) in January reached 795.67 billion yuan [5]. - The largest inflows were seen in thematic ETFs such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, electric grid equipment, and satellite ETFs, while broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF and SSE 50 ETF faced significant outflows [6][7]. Group 2: Specific ETF Data - On January 30, the SGE Gold 9999 index had the highest net inflow of 16.24 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index saw the largest outflow of 73.23 billion yuan [3]. - Over the past five days, the SGE Gold 9999 index attracted over 20.2 billion yuan, and the chemical sector saw inflows exceeding 9.9 billion yuan [3]. - Leading fund companies like Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows in their non-ferrous metals ETF and chip ETF, with net inflows of 1.134 billion yuan and 430 million yuan, respectively [3]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The chemical industry ETF from E Fund saw a net inflow of 390 million yuan, while the chip ETF from E Fund had a net inflow of 170 million yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical uncertainties and rising nationalism may drive resource commodities into a super cycle, with metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tungsten, and cobalt being particularly noteworthy [9]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as steel, building materials, chemicals, and silicon materials, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [9].

Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

原油周报 (1.26-1.30) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.74美元，周涨7.28%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.83美元， 周涨6.71%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至470元/桶，周涨6.36%。美国总统特朗普重申对伊朗的威胁，一支舰队正驶向伊朗，希望伊朗能同美 国达成协议。伊朗方面则表示，邻国领土若被用于针对伊朗的敌对行动，这些邻国将被视为敌对方。此外，俄乌局势方面，周内乌克兰、美国 和俄罗斯代表团在阿布扎比举行三方会谈，与会各方在军事问题上取得一定进展，但在领土问题上仍未达成任何决定。地缘 ...