Core Viewpoint - Gold continues its bullish momentum, reaching a new historical high above $3500, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut bets and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have extended their upward trend for six consecutive days, surpassing $3500 [1] - The rebound of the US dollar from a one-month low has temporarily limited further gains in gold [1][3] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for further trading guidance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a potential increase in the ISM Manufacturing PMI from 48 in July to 49 in August, although it remains in contraction territory [3] - A disappointing ISM data release could lead to renewed selling pressure on the dollar, potentially supporting gold's record rise [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine continue to bolster gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky's announcement of plans for deeper strikes into Russia after recent attacks on Russian energy assets has drawn attention [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is targeting further increases, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71, not yet severely overbought [6] - The bullish crossover of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with the 50-day SMA supports gold's strong performance [6] - The new record high of $3509 sets the stage for a challenge at the psychological level of $3550, while any pullback would first test the intraday low of $3475 [6]

Core Insights - The explosion of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in September 2022 has sparked intense discussions about energy security and geopolitical dynamics in Europe, with immediate blame directed at Russia by Western media [3] - The narrative that Russia would sabotage its own energy supply line is questioned, suggesting that Ukraine and the U.S. may be the true beneficiaries of the incident [3] - Recent developments indicate that a Ukrainian individual has been arrested in connection with the explosions, raising further questions about the involvement of state actors [5][7] Group 1: Incident Overview - The Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed by underwater explosives, leading to significant natural gas leaks and raising concerns about energy supply to Europe [3] - The incident has led to a shift in European energy sourcing, with a marked increase in reliance on U.S. liquefied natural gas, resulting in higher economic costs for European nations [8] Group 2: Arrest and Investigation - A Ukrainian man, Sergey Kuznetsov, has been identified as a key figure in the Nord Stream explosion, with reports suggesting a well-coordinated operation involving a team of specialists [7] - The operation reportedly cost around 300,000 euros, which has led to speculation about potential state support behind the execution of the attack [7][8] Group 3: Political Implications - The arrest and subsequent revelations put German Chancellor Merz in a difficult position, as public sentiment in Germany may turn against continued support for Ukraine if it is confirmed that Ukraine was involved in the pipeline destruction [8] - Russia has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to address the investigation's transparency, indicating its intent to challenge the narrative surrounding the incident [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

Group 1 - Modi's visit to China for the SCO summit is seen as a strategic move to leverage China's influence in negotiations with Russia, especially in light of recent U.S. tariffs on Indian imports [1][3] - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, rising from less than 1% before the Ukraine conflict to 42% currently, with daily purchases reaching 2 million barrels [3][5] - The U.S. tariffs on India are perceived as a shift in strategy, moving away from supporting India as a counterbalance to China, and instead focusing on economic interests [5][6] Group 2 - The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan has diminished India's perceived strength, leading to a reassessment of its strategic value by the U.S. [6][9] - The U.S. is interested in opening India's agricultural market, which poses a significant risk to India's large farming population, potentially leading to widespread unemployment [9][11] - The core conflict between the U.S. and India revolves around agricultural market access, which is critical for India's economic stability and political landscape [9][11]

黄金方面： 地缘冲突在相对稳定一段时间之后又迎来升温。中东方面，也门胡塞武装准备与以色列展开对抗，土耳其方面也已经决定完全 切断与以色列的经济和商业联系，并且对其飞机关闭领空。 俄乌冲突方面也有所升温，8月29日俄乌在顿涅茨克重镇展开激烈交战，乌克兰方面计划对俄罗斯境内发动新一轮深入打击。欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩更是表示，欧盟已有明确的计划派兵乌克兰。 在地缘升温的同时，美联储官员们再度向市场释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示将在9月份降息。 技术面：日线上，近期行情总体维持在63-65美元区间震荡，短期大概率将延续。指标上看，62日均线延续下行，并且行情反弹 并没有有效上破65美元一线压力，后续行情重回弱势将是大概率事件。日内关注上方65美元一线压力情况。 美元指数： 数据方面看，美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，为2025年2月以来的新高，符合市场预期。数据公布之后，市场继续押 注美联储9月份降息。 美联储官员们继续释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示9月份降息；另外美国法官未就特朗普罢免库克案当庭做出裁决，这就意味 着这位利率决策者将继续留任。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，降息的预期叠加地缘摩 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights the longstanding special relationship between Russia and India, characterized by friendship and trust [1] - Modi expressed India's anticipation for Putin's visit in December, emphasizing the depth and breadth of their special relationship, which is crucial for global peace and stability [1] - The recent imposition of a 50% tariff by the U.S. on Indian goods, including a 25% punitive measure against India's purchase of Russian oil, is expected to impact $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports [1] Group 2 - In response to U.S. threats regarding oil purchases from Russia, the Indian government has taken a strong stance, criticizing the double standards of the U.S. and emphasizing its stable partnership with Russia [2] - India's historical ties with Russia date back to the Cold War, and the two countries have maintained close cooperation in energy and military sectors, with a recent $248 million deal for T-72 tank engines [2] - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Russia was not a major oil supplier to India, but has since become the largest source due to discounted oil sales, with India importing an average of 1.75 million barrels per day from Russia in the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - Despite initial reports of Indian state-owned refineries pausing Russian oil purchases, companies like Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have resumed buying Russian oil for September and October deliveries, attracted by the price discount [3] - The relationship between India and the U.S. appears to be cooling, with reports indicating Modi's refusal to engage in phone conversations with Trump since June, and Trump's plans to cancel his visit to India [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. At the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The contango of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while that of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the diesel crack spread in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have slightly increased, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased seasonally, the absolute inventory is at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil contango is expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the expected adjustment of European autumn maintenance, the forecast of the European diesel crack spread in the fourth quarter is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 25 - 29, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59, BRENT decreased by $1.14, and DUBAI increased by $0.01. Among other related indicators, SC increased by 3.50, OMAN decreased by 0.83, etc. [3] 2. Daily News - The CEO of a Russian oil company expects the global oil market surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level since 2007 due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 lots to 24,225 lots, the lowest since January 2007, and short - only bets on WTI crude oil reached a 20 - month high [3]. - The U.S. Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production reached 1.92 million barrels per day in June 2025, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - Due to increased production from major oil - producing countries and U.S. tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, and that of U.S. crude oil is $64.65 per barrel [4]. - Despite sanctions and U.S. tariffs, Russia's oil exports to India will increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. U.S. crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5][6].

Report Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rising to 49.4% [2] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79355 and a basis of -55, indicating a discount to the futures [2] - Copper inventories on August 29 increased by 950 to 158900 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1950 tons from last week to 79748 tons, considered neutral [2] - The copper price closed above the 20-day moving average with the 20-day moving average moving upward, showing a bullish signal [2] - The main positions are net long and increasing, also a bullish indication [2] - Currently, copper prices are expected to move in a range as inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the market awaits consumption guidance in the September peak season, with no prominent long - short contradictions [2] Market Situation Analysis - In terms of recent factors, domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative one [3] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table reveals production, import, export, and consumption data from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - Processing fees have declined [16]

Core Insights - The investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline explosion has revealed shocking implications for European energy security and geopolitical trust, particularly pointing towards Ukraine as a potential suspect [1][6][19] - The incident has led to a significant shift in Europe's energy strategy, forcing countries to reduce reliance on Russian energy and increase support for Ukraine, despite the potential betrayal by an ally [1][6][19] Group 1: Investigation Details - German media has extensively reported on the Nord Stream explosion, identifying the individuals involved and suggesting Ukrainian government complicity [1][3] - The operation was meticulously planned by a team that included a captain, a coordinator, an explosives expert, and divers, who used false identities to execute the mission [3][5] - The operation's cost was estimated at $300,000, but it resulted in a 40% spike in European energy market prices [5] Group 2: Economic Impact on Europe - Germany has provided over €30 billion in aid to Ukraine, only to find its energy infrastructure compromised by actions potentially supported by that same ally [6][19] - The surge in industrial electricity prices has led companies like BASF to consider relocating production to China, potentially resulting in long-term economic losses of up to €1.2 trillion for Germany [6][19] - The U.S. has doubled its liquefied natural gas exports to Europe, but high prices have drawn criticism, contrasting with Germany's previous strategy to reduce dependence on American energy [6][19] Group 3: Challenges in Investigation - Germany faces significant obstacles in its investigation, with countries like Poland and Sweden showing reluctance to cooperate effectively [8][11] - Even if suspects are apprehended, uncovering the masterminds behind the operation remains uncertain [11] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. had prior knowledge of Ukraine's plans to sabotage the pipeline, indicating a complex interplay of geopolitical interests [13][15] - Ukraine benefits directly from the disruption of European-Russian energy ties, while the U.S. gains economically and strategically by increasing its influence over Europe [15][19] Group 5: Future Considerations for Europe - The investigation's findings may lead to a reevaluation of alliances and a need for Europe to reassess its foreign policy and energy strategies [21][23] - Germany's call for transparency in the investigation reflects a desire to prevent the truth from being obscured and to address the underlying trust issues within international relations [23]

Group 1: Economic Cooperation - Japan and India are strengthening cooperation in economic investment, with Japan committing to encourage private sector investments in India, targeting an investment of 10 trillion yen (approximately 68 billion USD) over the next decade [1][2] - The investment commitment is part of a broader economic security agreement between the two nations, reflecting a response to rising trade uncertainties due to increased tariffs from the United States [1][2] Group 2: Security and Defense Collaboration - The two countries have revised the "Security Cooperation Joint Declaration" for the first time in 17 years, which now includes provisions for economic security, joint development of defense equipment, and technology management in emerging fields such as cyberspace and space [2] - The agreement also encompasses collaboration on India's high-speed rail project, with Japan's JR East providing new Shinkansen E10 series trains [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The relationship between India and the U.S. has soured, particularly following the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods, making India one of the countries facing the highest tariff rates [2][3] - Despite the tensions with the U.S., India and China are reportedly improving their relations, with Modi emphasizing the importance of stable and friendly ties between the two populous nations for regional and global peace [4][5] Group 4: Strategic Alliances - India is actively participating in the QUAD alliance while also engaging with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, indicating a strategy to balance relations among major powers to achieve its geopolitical and economic goals [5] - Modi's recent statements suggest a shift in India's strategic perception of China, aiming for a more stable and cooperative relationship, which aligns with both countries' interests [5]