Market Overview - The recent market volatility has left many investors confused, particularly new traders who often buy high and sell low, leading to significant losses [1] - It is advised that traders should avoid frequent operations and adhere to a strict trading plan to mitigate losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - The latest unemployment claims data from the U.S. showed a decrease of 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market [2] - The potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is supporting gold prices, as the dollar struggles to attract strong buying interest [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, despite a recent pullback in prices [3] - Technically, gold has shown a strong support level at 3,365, with potential upward targets at 3,430 and 3,450, while a break above 3,450 could lead to further gains towards 3,500 [4][6] Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant rise, with Brent crude previously increasing by 4.4% to over $76 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. inventory data and diplomatic developments, as the stability of the Hormuz Strait is crucial for oil prices [7] - From a technical perspective, oil prices are in an upward trend, with a focus on testing resistance levels around $75.30, while support is seen at $73.5 to $72.5 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is strong, with a consensus that "not going global means being eliminated" [1] Group 1: Current Status of Going Global - 80% of surveyed Chinese enterprises have overseas investment intentions, and over 90% are optimistic about the overseas investment outlook [1] - Nearly 30% of large enterprises and nearly 40% of medium-sized enterprises have implemented outbound strategies, while about 30% of small enterprises have plans to go global [1] - The evolution of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment has gone through four stages: 1. 1978-2001: Focused on resource acquisition, mainly in Southeast Asia, with state-owned enterprises as the primary investors [2] 2. 2001-2008: Shifted towards market and technology acquisition, with increasing participation from private enterprises [2] 3. 2008-2018: Sought low-cost investments globally due to rising domestic production costs [2] 4. 2018-present: Facing severe challenges due to geopolitical tensions and trade wars [2][4] Group 2: Challenges Faced - Geopolitical factors pose significant challenges, with the U.S. continuing to suppress Chinese investments and the EU increasing scrutiny on Chinese investments [4] - Emerging economies like Vietnam and South Africa are also showing policy fluctuations regarding Chinese investments [4] - Issues such as insufficient industrial chain support, inadequate infrastructure, and a shortage of skilled labor in non-investment regions complicate the investment landscape [4] Group 3: Recommendations for Enterprises - Companies should enhance risk prevention and response capabilities, adhering to the investment principle of avoiding high-risk areas and industries [6] - Establishing risk assessment mechanisms and emergency plans is crucial for navigating local conflicts and safety risks [6] - Building strategic alliances with foreign enterprises is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance cooperation [6][7] Group 4: Regional Strategies - Focus on investing in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, countries with free trade agreements with China, and regions where China has established industrial parks [7] - In Europe, consolidating traditional markets and exploring new sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy is advised, while avoiding acquisitions of well-known local companies [7] - Caution is advised when entering markets like India and Japan due to their stringent regulations [7] - For the U.S. market, a wait-and-see approach is suggested, with potential future investments in traditional industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current period is marked by significant changes in geopolitical, trade, and immigration aspects, but this does not alter the approach to monetary policy formulation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent monetary policy despite external changes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On June 18, the main coke contract closed at 1,375 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.62%. The position of the main contract was 51,886 lots, a net increase of 743 lots from the previous trading day. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, affected by the off - season. However, the recent marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with events such as the Israel - Iran conflict and political turmoil in Mongolia, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize. In general, the fundamentals of coke have not changed much. The off - season still suppresses the decline of both supply and demand, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased marginally, driving the coke price to stop falling and rebound slightly. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material situation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 18, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.57% intraday. The position of the main contract was 549,735 lots, a net decrease of 13,032 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 834 yuan/ton. The change in the coking coal market sentiment mainly stems from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations brought by international themes such as geopolitics and Sino - US relations. The short - and medium - term adjustment of coking coal, which has been hitting new lows this year, is reasonable. However, it will still take some time to completely reverse the current situation of loose supply. Without policy intervention, the supply pressure of coking coal may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the first meeting of the Sino - US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the more critical factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. In general, the coking coal futures have stopped falling and stabilized and gradually moved up, but the sustainability of coking coal production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. It is recommended to view it as a phased rebound, but be vigilant against the falsification of the upward logic [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **Automobile Trade**: In May 2025, China exported 690,000 automobiles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 2.85 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In May, China imported 50,000 automobiles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 180,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8% [8]. - **Coking Coal Market**: On June 18, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable. The ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong coking coal (A10.5, S4.1, V31, G100, Y40, CSR75, Mt10) was 780 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive of tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,270 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 0.85% | - 4.10% | - 27.78% | - 40.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 865 yuan/ton | - 2.81% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 0.83% | - 4.72% | - 18.79% | - 43.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,375.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | 1,390.0 yuan/ton | 1,361.5 yuan/ton | 26,667 lots | + 5,677 lots | 51,886 lots | + 743 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 790.5 points | - 0.57% | 801.0 points | 782.0 points | 834,209 lots | - 185,328 lots | 549,735 lots | - 13,032 lots | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][29][31]. Market Outlook The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and the need to continue monitoring relevant factors [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides investment outlooks for various commodity futures, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances on specific commodities. 2. Core Viewpoints - For commodity futures, a bullish approach is recommended for crude oil, methanol, and silver [1][2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias due to policy expectations from the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1]. - Treasury bonds are likely to trade in a range, with short - term support more evident under the influence of policy and liquidity [1]. - Geopolitical risks continue to drive the volatility of gold and silver prices, and gold is expected to remain bullish in the long - term [1][4]. - Copper prices will trade in a range due to supply constraints and uncertain macro - economic expectations [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias, supported by low inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to decline towards cost support, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. - Lithium carbonate prices will be under pressure due to oversupply [6]. - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to sell put options [6]. - Black metal prices will trade in a range in the short - term, affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes [6]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly, with an oversupply situation in the medium - to long - term [8]. - Soda ash and float glass prices are bearish, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and it is recommended to buy call options [8]. - Methanol prices are rising, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. - Polyolefin prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly due to supply increases and demand blockages [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market has rebounded and stabilized, but there are no new fundamental positives, and the market is in a state of stock - capital game with continuous theme rotation [1]. - The opening of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum boosts policy expectations, which may drive the stock index to fluctuate upward [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose across the board yesterday, with short - term bonds performing more strongly [1]. - Economic and financial data are still divergent, and attention should be paid to incremental policies during the Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The market's optimistic expectation of monetary policy easing is strengthened, and the short - term support is more evident under the loose liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive gold and silver price fluctuations, and the long - term cycle of debt, the dollar, and inflation is still favorable for gold [1][4]. - The gold - silver ratio remains at a high level, and silver may have pulsed fluctuations [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices trade in a range. Supply is tight, but macro - economic expectations are uncertain, and real - demand is cautious [4]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply constraints are clear, and low inventory provides support, although demand is uncertain [4]. Nickel - Nickel prices continue to decline towards cost support due to an oversupply situation, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to an oversupply situation, with increasing supply and decreasing demand efficiency [6]. Silicon Energy - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range. Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak, but the probability of a sharp decline is low at the current price level [6]. Black Metals Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. Demand has weakened seasonally, but inventory is low, and geopolitical factors and coal production cuts relieve the downward pressure on furnace material prices [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices will follow steel prices and trade in a narrow range. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is stable, but the spot price has more downward pressure than the futures price [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly. Coking coal has a long - term oversupply situation, and coke has weak supply and demand [8]. Building Materials Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are bearish. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and inventory is concentrated in upstream factories [8]. Float Glass - Float glass prices are bearish. Demand is expected to be weak, supply is loose, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. Energy Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, driven by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to buy call options [8]. Methanol - Methanol prices are rising, but domestic spot trading has weakened, and there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. Chemicals - Polyolefin prices are rising. The market is worried about reduced imports from the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply may be affected by high - temperature risks, and demand is relatively resilient [10]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly. Demand transmission is blocked, supply is increasing seasonally, and the rebound space is limited [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3381 per ounce, showing a mild downward trend as it awaits the Federal Reserve's decision for clearer direction [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing gold prices, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy announcement expected to cause significant volatility [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $3405, with a breakthrough indicating a potential bullish trend, while prices below this level suggest a bearish outlook [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant increase, with Brent crude previously rising by 4.4% and nearing $76 per barrel, while WTI approached $75 [6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, is a major factor affecting oil prices, with potential for further increases if conflicts escalate [6] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bullish trend, with the price testing new highs and showing strong upward momentum, suggesting a focus on buying on dips [7]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【545-575】 | | LPG | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | | 偏强 | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4450-4550】 | | | | 社会库存去化，期现齐涨，华北基差为-7（环比+41）。2024 年 PE 自中东 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | | | | | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：检修叠加成 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Methanol [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [5] 1. Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract decreased in price with reduced positions on Tuesday. The weighted contract decreased by 0.37%, with a reduction of 23,806 positions, and the 09 main contract reduced by 3,695 positions. The weighted contract showed a wide - range volatile trend after opening lower and finally closed with a small - bodied false positive line with upper and lower shadows [5]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Iranian situation affects methanol prices. Currently, Iranian methanol ports and shipments are normal, but there are reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which may support methanol prices. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties increase price volatility. The short - term supply disruptions and the short - term rebound of upstream coal prices also support methanol prices, so it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5]. - From a technical perspective, in the hourly cycle, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area for the second time and then corrected, the MACD fast and slow lines were still above the zero axis, and the red bars continued to shorten. In the daily cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines both crossed above the zero axis, the red bars continued to lengthen, and the RSI indicator was in the overbought area and showed signs of correction. Overall, it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The MA2501 contract opened at 2,445, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,410, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 175,703, an open interest of 208,776, and a decrease in open interest of 9,733. The MA2505 contract opened at 2,388, closed at 2,387, with a high of 2,395, a low of 2,354, a decline of 0.33%, a trading volume of 1,694, an open interest of 3,589, and an increase in open interest of 243. The MA2509 contract opened at 2,440, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,397, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 2,061,228, an open interest of 816,410, and a decrease in open interest of 3,696 [7]. 3.2 Industry News - A coal - chemical project worth 59 billion yuan started. Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng Coal - Chemical Co., Ltd.'s methanol project, methanol - acetic acid extension project, and new - material project's finished and semi - finished product tank area project began construction. The first - phase project, estimated to cost 25.5 billion yuan, plans to produce more than 30 main and by - products such as acetic acid, ethanol, polyglycolic acid, and polyoxymethylene, with an expected annual output value of about 11.7 billion yuan. It is scheduled to be put into production in October 2026, and the second - phase project construction will be launched simultaneously. The long - term plan covers about 7,800 mu of land, with an estimated investment of 59 billion yuan, targeting high - end fine - chemical products in the new energy and new - material fields [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the main contract basis, production - sales price difference, futures price and warehouse receipt quantity, MA09 - MA01 spread, three - process methanol profit, and overseas methanol market price, but specific data details are not described in the text [20][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, is expected to continue driving gold prices upward until there is a perceived easing of tensions [1][2] - Weak economic data from the U.S., including a 0.9% decline in retail sales and a 0.2% drop in industrial output, has increased expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, benefiting silver prices [2][3] - Gold is seen as a hedge against currency devaluation, with its price rising nearly 30% against the U.S. dollar this year, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and potential inflation [4] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, marking the largest month-over-month decline in four months, reflecting consumer caution ahead of tariff policy implementations [3] - Industrial production data also fell short of market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [3] - The Senate's proposal to make corporate tax cuts permanent and raise the debt ceiling poses long-term challenges for the U.S. dollar and treasury credit [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite a strong dollar, gold prices have been resilient, with a potential consolidation around $3,400 before the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - Silver prices have surged, breaking through $37 per ounce, indicating a strong market response to expectations of monetary easing [1][2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and economic data influencing trading strategies [5]