2025年是黄金和铜的大年，由于购金、投资需求等方面的支撑，推动金价屡创新高；铜也在结构性的推动下，发生一些变化。当下，黄金与铜这 两样与财富紧密相接的"硬通货"，在经历了波澜壮阔的行情后，已处在高位。那么展望未来，它们还能涨吗？市场的真实情绪又是怎样的？ 12月20日，在2025雪球嘉年华上，雪球资管高级投资经理史旭超、国联民生研究所前瞻研究首席分析师郭荆璞、《培风客》主理人陈大鹏共同探 讨了黄金和铜的投资机会。 01 周期性与结构性因素推动黄金和铜走强 史旭超 ：针对黄金和铜，投资框架是怎样的？ 陈大鹏 ：对商品来说，一般有个非常简单的框架，所有商品都是被结构性跟周期性的因素驱动。所谓周期性因素，即经济周期里过热、复苏、萧 条、滞胀；所有结构性因素就是跟这些因素无关的。 铜的周期性影响因素在过去是制造业的PMI，与全球的GDP有非常好的相关性。铜2025年上涨是一个结构性的因素，有两个部分，一个是供给短 缺，今年有大量的矿山的扰动，而且扰动不是今年发生的，是从2017年开始由于地缘政治或资源民族主义慢慢滋生发生的。另外，2025年最主要 的一个边际变量，是来自美国关税和AI良好预期下的铜的囤积需求。总的来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $60.05 and $56.52 per barrel respectively as of December 19, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.75% and 1.60% from the previous week [2][9]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly discussions around the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, has influenced market dynamics, leading to a mixed impact on oil prices [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector showed resilience, with a 1.60% increase in the sector's performance compared to a 0.28% decline in the broader market (CSI 300) [10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 19, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $60.05 per barrel, down $1.07 (-1.75%), while WTI crude futures settled at $56.52 per barrel, down $0.92 (-1.60%) [2][17]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude fell to $47.86 per barrel, down $1.77 (-3.57%) [2][17]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 375, with a net addition of 7 rigs, while floating drilling rigs rose to 131, with a net addition of 2 rigs [27]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.843 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [44]. - The active rig count in the U.S. decreased to 406, down by 8 rigs [44]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.988 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.80%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous week [55]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 837 million barrels, a decrease of 1.025 million barrels (-0.12%) from the previous week [62]. - Strategic oil reserves increased slightly to 412 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 424 million barrels [62]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina, among others [3].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly focused on establishing a free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) after facing challenges from U.S. tariff policies, but internal divisions within the EU have delayed this effort [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Status - The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was scheduled to sign the trade agreement with Mercosur on December 20, but opposition from countries like Italy has postponed the process [3][5]. - The EU and Mercosur have been negotiating this trade agreement for over 25 years, causing frustration among South American nations, with Brazilian President Lula stating that a deal must be reached now or it will never happen [3][5]. - If the agreement is finalized, it could create a market of 780 million consumers and gradually eliminate tariffs on various goods, benefiting both regions economically [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the agreement is reached, it could contribute 0.7% economic growth for Mercosur and 0.1% for Europe by 2040 [5]. - The EU aims to establish economic ties outside of the U.S. and China, seeking geopolitical advantages through this transatlantic agreement [5][7]. Group 3: Internal EU Challenges - The EU has struggled to secure the necessary majority support for the agreement, with countries like France and Poland opposing it due to concerns over the impact on European farmers [8][9]. - Protests from thousands of farmers in Brussels highlight the internal resistance to the agreement, with significant pressure on EU leaders to reconsider [8][9]. - The fate of the agreement may hinge on Italy's position, as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has indicated the need for more time to gain domestic approval [9][10]. Group 4: Competitor Dynamics - As the EU struggles to finalize the agreement, competitors like Japan and the UK are eyeing the South American market and its resources, indicating a potential shift in trade alliances [12][13]. - Mercosur is also pursuing trade agreements with other partners, including the EFTA and countries like the UAE and Canada, which could further complicate the EU's position [12].

近期，美国、日本的地缘政治在中国管控稀土产品的影响下，纷纷把目光锁定在哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等中亚5国关键矿产的开发合作上。 在白宫，特朗普与中亚5国总统的亲切会面，以及中亚5国总统怀着无比激动的心情把特朗普当成他们国家财富与经济增长的救星，尽管在中俄方面看来，有 点令人作呕，中亚5国的背叛、特朗普的挖墙脚与背后拆台等情绪化的发泄，也都可能在中俄民粹主义以及民族主义的舆论场中炸锅，但毕竟这是人家的独 立自主与多元外交，情绪可以发泄，但却阻止不了人家。 所以，对这次高市与中亚5国的首脑会议，也要以这种平和、理性的态度进行分析，不宜做情绪化的发泄，这样只会迷失自己的理智和眼睛。 按照上面的分析框架，日本在与中亚5国的峰会上，高市牵头，准备在未来5年砸3万亿日元投资开发中亚5国的稀土、铀、石油等关键矿产，从地缘政治的角 度上看，又在图谋什么呢？ 首先是为了减少对中国稀土等关键矿产的高度依赖，构建多元、安全的关键矿产供应链，保障日本的经济与国家安全。日本是一个资源极为贫乏的岛国，其 关键矿产几乎全部依赖国外进口。日本的经济以科技支撑起来的，但本国资源贫乏，长期依赖国外进口，也是经济与国家安全上的致命短板，抑或很容易 ...

由墨参众两院通过的这份「增税提案」，对1463个关税细目加征关税，税率5%到50%不等，大多数产品关税设定在35%以下，但汽车、纺织品、服装、鞋 类和钢铁等关键行业上限达到50%，法案于2026年1月1日正式生效。这提案名义上是面向多个亚洲国家，不过按照墨西哥外贸的实际现状，说其实就是针 对中国也不为过。 从特朗普1.0打到2.0的中美贸易战，就有这么一号获利巨大的「凡人」——墨西哥。 这不，就在这个12月，老墨向懂王递上了一份投名状。 来源：乌鸦校尉 俗话说神仙打架凡人遭殃。不过这事儿其实也未尽然，且不说真想当个小透明完全可能，甚至还有一些「凡人」还能把握时机成为「神仙打架」的获益 者。 但你凡人想要掺乎神仙的战争，甚至明摆着拉偏架，那你就是放着好日子不过，打算当遭殃的那个了。 墨西哥经济部长埃布拉德说得明白：如果想在墨西哥销售，就在这里生产。 潜台词再明显不过——中国企业别光卖货，得来建厂交保护费。 投名状这东西，向来都是拿血写的。这次老墨选择用中国供应链的血。 作为第一轮中美贸易战以来全球渔利最大的国家之一，两头吃、两头不得罪，非要在这个节骨眼上跳下来主动站队？ 乌鸦今天就来讲讲墨西哥这摊子事。 火速通 ...

在演讲中，邓志超针对未来中国离岸金融的发展提出了几点展望思考： 第一，地缘政治影响中国离岸金融的需求。他提到，中国离岸金融的需求源动力来自于中国经贸和政治 在全球的地位。当前，毫无疑问的是中国已经从世界舞台的边缘走到了中央，发展离岸人民币交易成为 核心要点。这两方面对发展中国离岸金融有很明显的支撑作用。现阶段，地缘政治对中国的离岸金融发 展会产生两方面相反影响：一是降低美国及其同盟国投资中国、将资源投向中国的意愿，这是负面的； 另一个是有可能会激发中国及中国经济交往密切的经济主体选用人民币替代美元，这是好的方面。 "综合判断下，地缘政治影响短期内抑制外资流入，但是中长期会对人民币离岸创造提供历史性机遇。" 第二，中美利率倒挂加速中国对外投资的步伐。邓志超表示，当前与未来，会有资本持续放弃使用美元 体系，转而寻求人民币体系的支持，主要的推动力是境内融资向境外投资的交易模式。 当前，中美现在之间的利差倒挂在2.2%的水平。他提出的一个判断是，"未来即便美联储会降息，利差 倒挂现象依然会持续2-3年。而美国国内的通胀在3%左右，参考美联储FOMC会议12月的点阵图，美元 长期利率很有可能会在3%左右附近，依然会比人 ...

欧盟在最后一刻敲定了一项对乌援助折中方案，但这一结果也引发外界对欧盟决策力的质疑。 2025 年 5 月，在库皮扬 斯克附近，一名乌克兰士兵操作迫击炮，隐蔽在无人机的侦察视野之外。欧盟计划向乌克兰提供总计 900 亿欧元的贷款援助。 本文作者 | 詹娜・斯米亚莱克 周五凌晨将近 3 点，一则消息开始在布鲁塞尔市中心宏伟的欧盟总部内悄然传开。经过超过 16 个小时 的谈判，欧盟 27 国领导人终于达成一项协议，计划在 2027 年前为处境危急的乌克兰提供资金支持。 但这并非官员们数周来一直热议的方案。最初的方案原本打算动用欧盟冻结的俄罗斯资产，为对乌贷款 提供担保。各国领导人此前也多次表态，称这是最佳选择 —— 既是一项果断的举措，也能彰显欧盟的 实力。 最终出台的却是一项棘手的折中方案。 在密集的谈判和频繁的私下磋商中，这项 "冻结资产担保" 方案在最后时刻宣告流产。据欧盟外交官及 官员透露，方案搁浅的原因一方面是比利时长期以来的反对，另一方面则是卢森堡、意大利和法国的疑 虑。 比利时境内存放着欧盟冻结的大部分俄罗斯资产，卢森堡也持有一小部分。两国均担心，一旦俄罗斯采 取报复措施并胜诉，本国可能会面临巨额赔偿 ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4326.22 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 975.90 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 979.30 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 979.90 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)周四数据，美国11月CPI通胀降至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普周三表示，下任美联储主席将是一位相信大幅降低利率的人。他进一步表示， 将很快宣布现任美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的继任者。 根据CME FedWatch工具，在美联储最近三次会议上每次降息25个基点后，金融市场目前仅定价26.6% 的概率，认为美联储将在1月下次会议上降息。 在本周末美国与俄罗斯官员会晤之前，美国总统特朗普表示，他相信结束俄乌冲突的谈判"正在接近某 种结果"。一位白宫官员说，特朗普特使威特科夫和库什纳计划于本周末在迈阿密会见一个俄罗斯代表 团，他们将继续努力促使俄乌双方达成协议，以结束冲突。分析师指出，如果周末谈判取得进展，下周 金价将面临大幅低开的可能性。 摘要北京时间周五(12月19日)欧洲 ...

原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，而美国页岩油受投资不足和油 价低迷制约，难有明显增量，此外，地缘局势演变，尤其是俄乌冲突与伊核问 题的走向，将继续扰动原油供给侧。而需求侧受经济增长乏力制约，整体前景 难言乐观，预计 2026 年全球石油需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]