党的二十届四中全会公报（下文称"《公报》"）的发布，让资本市场和公募行业备受鼓舞，其所传递的信 号也成为基金投资的核心依据。 两大产业抓手鼓舞公募 多个基金公司从经济增长、产业核心、投资路径等角度，深度剖析与梳理四中全会的核心内涵，挖掘资本市场 高质量发展中的关键抓手与驱动引擎，紧密抓住科技创新、绿色转型、扩大内需、健康养老等投资布局关键 词。 基金看好经济增长态势 在经济增长上，基金公司普遍认为"稳"是未来经济增长的内涵。 长城基金认为， 在五年规划中重提"以经济建设为中心"，预示着"十五五"期间可能设定更具象的预期性经济 增速目标，与当前潜在增长水平相匹配。与五年前不同，本次会议专门对经济形势作出研判，并强调"坚决实 现全年经济社会发展目标"。考虑到提振消费、地方化债等任务已在《公报》中明确，且实现全年"5%左右"增 长目标压力不大，预计四季度政策或以渐进式宽松和落实为主。 永盈基金分析 ， 本次会议明确坚持以经济建设为中心，延续强调"到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水 平"，暂未提出具体的GDP量化目标，可能会在后续规划全文中明确。预计"十五五"期间年均GDP增速需要达 到、也有望达到4.8%左右 ...

Core Insights - The analysis of the economic situation in the first three quarters of 2023 highlights significant pressures primarily from the demand side, with declines in investment growth across various sectors including manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate [3] - Despite the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand, there are positive developments such as the introduction of new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan, which are expected to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter [3] - The importance of consumer spending is emphasized, with comparisons drawn to stable consumption rates in Europe, the US, and Japan, driven by factors such as rapid growth in household financial assets, improved social security levels, and enhanced social services [3] Economic Analysis - Investment growth has seen a decline, particularly in manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate sectors, while consumer growth has also slowed down, accompanied by low price levels [3] - The relationship between nominal GDP and consumer spending is critical, as improved GDP leads to increased disposable income, thereby boosting consumption [4] - The need for new investment opportunities is highlighted, as traditional investment demand decreases with falling marginal returns on capital; identifying new sectors and growth opportunities is essential for maintaining investment levels [4] Recommendations for Demand Expansion - To stimulate consumption, it is crucial to avoid long-term framing of the demand insufficiency issue, learning from Japan's historical context [5] - Short-term cyclical policies are identified as effective tools for influencing consumer behavior and spending [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst complex international situations and ongoing Sino-US negotiations, the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes scientific and technological innovation and domestic demand expansion, leading to a significant rebound in the technology sector. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds, and the stock index has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is conducive to RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflows. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and new technologies and consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, long - term funds and retail investors will enter a new investment cycle. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance (securities) and consumption [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. The Nasdaq rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the ChiNext Index soared 8.05%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.27% as of October 24, 2025. Most of the 81 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with the communications, electronics, and power equipment sectors rising significantly, while only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage sectors declined [11][15]. 2. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds boosted M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. The recovery of real - economy financing demand still needs time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing balance was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The growth rate slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new government bonds in September were 1.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 543.7 billion yuan [13][16]. - The fund rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was net - injected in September. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [16]. 3. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, trading volume in the two markets decreased, but the heavy trading on Friday drove the index to rebound. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring. The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations from January to August, with 1.57 million in January, 2.88 million in February, 3.06 million in March, 1.92 million in April, 1.555 million in May, 1.6464 million in June, 1.9636 million in July, and 2.6503 million in August [23][25]. 4. Index Valuation - As of October 24, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index is at a low level. The latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.94, with a quantile of 87.30, and the PE of the entire A - share market is 22.59, with a quantile of 88.43. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [32]. 5. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors are relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. In the SSE 300, the weights are more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [45][46]. 6. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 3% and the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were proposed, with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund rate was cut by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market, such as those in the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, were promoted [50][51]. - Overseas policy tracking: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 30%, and there are still two potential rate cuts this year. China has implemented "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth controls, which has led to Trump's counter - measures of imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18 [52][53].

消费引擎释放内需新活力 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 不久前的2025年中秋国庆假期，我国全社会跨区域人员流动量创下历史新高，其中，8.88亿人次国内出 游，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1.23亿人次；国内游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加 1081.89亿元。 热气腾腾的假日消费图景，是"十四五"期间中国内需潜力释放、发展韧性增强的生动缩影，也为"十五 五"时期扩内需工作打下了坚实的基础。 刚刚闭幕的党的四中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》（下称《建议》），其中要求，要建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局，坚持扩大内需这个战 略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新 需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。要大力提振消费， 扩大有效投资，坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点。 "我国扩大内需既有空间，又有潜力。《建议》提出，要坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合，深入实施提振消费专项行动，扩大服务消费，推动商品 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the review of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of this period for achieving the long-term goals set for 2035 [9]. Deep Dive Topics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical phase for deepening the development strategies established in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and laying the groundwork for the 2035 vision [9]. - The article highlights the need for high-quality development, institutional reforms, and industrial transformation as the three main themes for the new five-year plan [12]. Hot Topics - AI capital expenditure is identified as a potential pillar of the U.S. economy, raising questions about whether the current investment boom is a bubble and how long the capital expenditure expansion cycle can last [13]. - The upcoming "Four Central" meeting is anticipated to set new expectations for the next five years, focusing on sustainable economic growth and social stability [12]. - The article reflects on the spirit of the recent plenary session, emphasizing the need to continue writing new chapters of economic miracles and social stability [12]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes that the recent fiscal spending pressures are being addressed through the implementation of two types of incremental fiscal funds [18]. - It reports that overseas risk-free interest rates have declined, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which have reached new highs [20]. - The third quarter economic performance is characterized by resilience, supported by both short-term factors and medium-term strengths [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of combining market mechanisms with government planning to enhance resource allocation and address market failures, showcasing the advantages of the socialist system [1] - The five-year plan serves three main functions: it constrains public resource allocation, guides social resource distribution, and stabilizes social expectations, providing clear policy signals for market entities [1] - The AES100 engine, a significant project under the "14th Five-Year Plan," represents China's first independently developed civil turbine engine meeting international airworthiness standards, highlighting advancements in the aerospace sector [3] Group 2 - The planning system allows China to balance short-term market rationality with long-term strategic foresight, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial system since the early years of the new China [3][4] - The integration of micro and macro perspectives through market mechanisms and planning is crucial for developing a favorable industrial ecosystem, as seen in industries like photovoltaics, drones, 5G, and new energy vehicles [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" addresses the issue of insufficient effective demand by emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand as a strategic foundation, indicating a proactive approach to economic growth [5]

Core Points - The meeting focused on the preparation of the draft outline for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the need for strategic adjustments in response to external challenges [1][2] - The draft outline aims to enhance new productive forces and build a modern industrial system, with a strong emphasis on domestic demand and comprehensive reforms to stimulate growth [2][3] Group 1 - The outline preparation must align with the central tasks of the Party in the new era, focusing on high-quality development and breakthroughs in key areas [2] - There is a need to maintain strategic determination and fully assess potential external shocks while ensuring proactive development [2] - The plan should prioritize public welfare, addressing the concerns of the populace and businesses to create tangible benefits [2] Group 2 - The drafting process is time-sensitive and requires collaboration across various sectors, including public opinion collection to incorporate societal expectations and expert insights [3] - Coordination between special planning and national development planning is essential to create a cohesive planning system [3] - The emphasis is on fostering new industries and growth areas, leveraging the potential of the domestic market, and implementing strategic adjustments in foreign trade [2][3]

会上，国家发展改革委就纲要草案编制作了汇报，与会同志进行了讨论。李强说，习近平总书记在党的二十 届四中全会上的重要讲话，为做好纲要草案编制工作提供了根本遵循。《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导思想、基本原则、主要目标、战略任务 等，是指导"十五五"时期经济社会发展的纲领性文件。我们要深入学习领会习近平总书记重要讲话精神和党中央 决策部署，在纲要草案编制中全面深入地贯彻落实。 李强指出，编制纲要草案要紧紧围绕新时代新征程党的中心任务，强化发展意识，坚持以推动高质量发展为 主题，在壮大新质生产力、建设现代化产业体系等方面取得更大突破，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增 长。要强化全局思维，准确把握"十五五"发展所处的历史方位，准确把握国内国际两个大局，保持战略定力，充 分估计可能的外部冲击、做好应对准备，牢牢把握发展主动权。要强化民生导向，坚持人民至上，聚焦各方面关 切谋划政策举措，设身处地、换位思考，奔着解决实际问题去，让群众和企业可感可及。 新华社北京10月24日电 10月24日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五" ...

Group 1: High-Quality Development and Technological Innovation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, with a focus on technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for achieving modernization by 2035 [2] - The plan highlights the importance of mastering core technologies in fields such as artificial intelligence, chips, aerospace, and biomedicine, aiming for breakthroughs in original innovation [2] - A systematic layout for the innovation ecosystem is proposed, integrating education, technology, and talent development to foster continuous innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Economic Stability - The strategy to expand domestic demand is reinforced, aiming to enhance the domestic circulation and create a robust domestic market [3] - The emphasis on "new demand leading new supply" reflects a commitment to stimulate consumption and investment, promoting a positive interaction between supply and demand [3] - Strengthening domestic circulation is expected to improve economic stability and resilience against external disruptions, thereby boosting consumption and effective investment [3] Group 3: International Trade and Cooperation - The plan advocates for high-level openness and innovation in trade, including the promotion of cross-border e-commerce and new trade dynamics [4] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to enhance bilateral trade with ASEAN and other economies, contributing to the resilience of China's foreign trade [4] - Continued efforts to deepen bilateral and regional cooperation are anticipated, including the implementation of high-quality initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative [4] Group 4: Real Estate Sector Transition - The real estate industry is shifting from short-term stabilization to long-term high-quality development, with a focus on meeting residents' demands for improved housing quality [4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a transition towards policies that prioritize housing quality over speculative investments, reflecting a commitment to sustainable development in the sector [4] Group 5: Macroeconomic Policies - Continuous and timely macroeconomic policies are expected to play a central role in driving economic recovery and structural optimization [5] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is anticipated to support economic growth, enhance market stability, and increase residents' income [5] - The focus on building a strong domestic market and supporting sectors like technology, consumption, and livelihood is crucial for overall economic performance [5]

新华社记者 齐中熙 魏玉坤 10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京召开。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 10月24日，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。 全会最重要的成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 中央政策研究室主任江金权介绍说，全会最重要的成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。《建议》的起草是在党中央领导下进行的。习近平总书记亲自担 任文件起草组组长，亲自擘画、全程指导、把脉定向，发挥了决定性作用。 江金权说，"十四五"时期是开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的第一个五年，发展历程极不寻 常、极不平凡。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，迎难而上、砥砺前行，经受 住世纪疫情严重冲击，有效应对一系列重大风险挑战，推动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就。制定"十 五五"规划建议，系统谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，是实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟蓝图、分阶段有 步骤推进中国式现代化的需要，是有效应对复杂严峻的外部环境新变化、在激烈国际竞 ...