| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 制造业 PMI 走弱，降息预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货继续窄幅震荡整理。上周三统计局公布了 4 月制造业 PMI 数据为 49.0%， 比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，回落至收缩区间。这 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamentals show a marginal recovery trend, but the foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations are to be further strengthened. Overseas, there are signs of economic slowdown in the US, and the Fed's policy still leans towards combating inflation. The bond market is likely to return to the fundamental - driven logic, with the interest rate center having room to decline. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities [97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2503, T2503, TF2503, TS2503) rose by 0.90%, 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased. The positions of TS and TL main contracts decreased, while those of TF and T main contracts increased [9][19][25]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed overall upward trends, with different increases for different maturities [13][19]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On April 28, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce optimized the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers. The Politburo meeting proposed to stabilize and activate the capital market. "Second - home to first - home" can enjoy special tax deductions for housing loan interest. On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement [31]. - **Overseas News**: The IMF lowered the GDP growth forecast for Asia this year to 3.9%. The US Treasury plans to net borrow $514 billion in the second quarter. The US consumer confidence index in April was at a new low since May 2020 [32]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y Treasury yields narrowed. The spreads between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures all narrowed slightly [38][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract increased [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yield**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.78%. The yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities decreasing by 0.5 - 3bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.62% and 1.86% respectively [68]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.1503 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan. The capital shortage situation improved [77]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 593.747 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 669.751 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 76.004 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2014, with a cumulative increase of 52 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [84]. - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly this week [89]. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly this week [94]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Fundamentals and Policy**: The domestic economy is in a marginal recovery, but the foundation needs to be consolidated. Overseas, the US economy shows signs of slowdown. The bond market is expected to return to the fundamental - driven logic, and the interest rate center may decline. Attention should be paid to the coordinated effect of the potential Fed rate - cut in June and the domestic RRR - cut window [97]. - **Investment Strategy**: Given the current differentiation between short - and long - term Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities. If the short - end does not stabilize, beware of the risk of long - end decline due to the correction of term spreads [97].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货收盘集体上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.69%，银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。央行在公开市场连续净投放，银行间市场资金面总体 平稳。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行超5个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个bp。五一长假将至，在央行的呵护下，资金面无忧， 市场也在等待降息降准等政策落地。 2、资金面：4月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量3405亿元，中标量3405亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1200亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.1450，现券 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for TL2506 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". Although currently in a high - level consolidation, future macro - policies will be concentrated, giving treasury bond futures upward momentum. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillating weakly" respectively, with a "range oscillation" view. The core logic is the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures rebounded comprehensively, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.69%. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds benefits the 30 - year treasury bond futures. Currently, domestic macro data is good, and the overseas Fed's reserve - reduction cycle has not arrived, so the central bank will remain stable in the short term. After the April Politburo meeting, the time for monetary policy interest rate and reserve - ratio cuts is approaching, and treasury bond futures have upward momentum in the future while mainly oscillating in the short term [4].

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57270 | 108.840 | 0.03% T主力成交量 | | -367↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 45830 | 105.915 | -0.06% TF主力成交量 | | 187↑ | | | 33165 TS主力收盘价 | 102.320 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | | 1035↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 120.180 | 0.3% TL主力成交量 | 67316 | -4023↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.33 | +0.05↑ T06-TL06价差 | -11.34 | -0.43↓ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.17 | +0.02↑ TF06-T06价差 | -2.93 | -0.09↓ | | | TF2509-2506价差 | 0.32 | +0 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 金十期货4月28日讯，2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌 0.06%，10年期国债期货（T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.30%。 ...

金十期货4月28日讯，2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.02%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌 0.01%，10年期国债期货（T）主力合约涨0.13%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.23%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

智通财经4月21日电，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.33%，10年期主力合约跌0.2%，5年 期主力合约跌0.14%，2年期主力合约跌0.05%。 国债期货收盘全线下跌 30年期主力合约跌0.33% ...

| | 1、央行公告称，4月15日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1645亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量1645 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1645亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1674亿元逆回购和1000亿元MLF到期，据此计算，单日全口径净回笼 | | | 1029亿元。 | | | 2、4月16日出版的第8期《求是》杂志将发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《加快建设文化强国》。文章从5个方面对加 快建设文化强国作出部署，第一，坚定不移走中国特色社会主义文化发展道路；第二，着力激发全民族文化创新创造 | | | 活力；第三，始终坚持文化建设着眼于人、落脚于人；第四，在创造性转化和创新性发展中赓续中华文脉；第五，不 | | | 断提升国家文化软实力和中华文化影响力。 | | | 3、国务院总理李强在北京调研时强调，沉着冷静应对外部冲击带来的困难挑战，以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做 | | | 强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。国务院总理李强在北京调研时强调，当前和今后一个时 | | 宏观 | 期，我国房地产市场仍有很大的发展空间，要进一步释放市场潜力，着 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.06%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.04%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.05%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.26%。 ...