Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current concerns about geopolitical factors in the domestic and international crude oil futures markets have temporarily overshadowed the pressure of oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have increased and dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Market Outlook - Short - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Medium - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Intraday outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of a slightly stronger operation [1][5] Core Logic - The concerns about geopolitical factors such as Western sanctions on Russia, the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela, and the Israeli air - strike on Qatar have overshadowed the pressure of crude oil oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.82% to 490.1 yuan/barrel [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, nearing historical highs due to favorable fundamentals and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a cooling labor market and increased expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels at 3600 and 3620, and resistance levels at 3660 and 3675. A potential high-level consolidation phase is anticipated [2][4] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to further assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing a mild rebound, with Brent crude rising by 0.53% to $66.74 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 0.57% to $62.99 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. calls for tariffs on Russian oil [5][6] - The current price increase is primarily influenced by short-term geopolitical risks rather than improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increases being key factors for long-term price trends [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term trading strategies focusing on selling into rallies and buying on dips, with resistance at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The main reason is that the expected increase in supply outweighs geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly weak [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly closed down 0.06% to 483.3 yuan/barrel, and the decline has slowed down [5]. - It is expected that on Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - The market is worried that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, and the increasing supply pressure outweighs geopolitical risk factors [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA absolute prices have fallen from their highs. With the cost - side oil price stabilizing and the positive news exhausted, the market focus returns to fundamentals, and the downstream demand becomes the main contradiction. The demand recovery is hard to boost raw material prices [2]. - The absolute price of MEG has also fallen from its high. The MEG port inventory has been continuously declining significantly, and the supply - side increase space is limited, so there is still support at the bottom [2]. - PF and PR mainly follow cost changes. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PX: Valuation returns to fundamentals as the hype on the news side is over, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][21]. - PTA: The market circulation is abundant, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][34]. - MEG: Domestic production continues to rise, and there may be support at the valuation bottom under low inventory [5][43]. - PF and PR: Mainly follow cost changes, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. 2. PX Market Analysis - **Macro - factors**: After the US Labor Day, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching. The market generally expects OPEC+ to suspend production increases in October. Geopolitical risks are still the biggest potential positive factor in the crude - oil market. In the short - term, sanctions and inventory decline provide main support, and in the long - term, the global economic recovery rhythm should be focused on [22]. - **Cost - related**: Naphtha prices are stable, and PX - N benefits are compressed. There are differences in short - process profits, and the refined oil price difference shows an upward trend [25][28]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic PX device load is currently around 83.3%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline; the Asian device load is currently 75.6%, a 0.7% month - on - month decline [2][31][32]. 3. PTA Market Analysis - **Processing - fee aspect**: PTA processing fees are under pressure, and attention should be paid to device maintenance dynamics under low processing fees [35]. - **Supply - side**: The PTA mainland area's operating rate is around 70.4%, a 1.2% decrease. Polyester production shows no signs of increase, and the operating rates of weaving and dyeing industries have declined [38][40]. 4. MEG Market Analysis - **Price and profit**: The MEG price has fallen, and processing profits are under pressure [44]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic MEG operating rate is 75.13% (a 1.97% increase), and the synthetic - gas - to - MEG operating rate is 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease). From September 1st to September 7th, the planned arrival at the main port is about 9.8 tons [2][47]. - **Inventory**: The main - port inventory is 44.9 tons, a 5.1 - ton month - on - month decrease [48]. - **Demand - side**: The profits of polyester products have recovered at a low level, but the overall economic efficiency is still average. The sales - to - production ratio has not recovered significantly, and the transactions in the Light Textile City have increased periodically. The short - fiber inventory is relatively stable, while the inventories of other varieties are under pressure [51][54][57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic energy sector is experiencing a downward trend in crude oil prices, with the main contract fluctuating between 480.7 and 487.7 yuan per barrel, reflecting a decline of 1.85% [1] - Analysts from Huishang Futures believe that short-term oil prices have strong support due to a stable macro environment and the ongoing destocking process, but mid-term risks are rising due to the upcoming demand off-season and OPEC+'s planned production increase of 1.66 million barrels per day [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that the end of the peak consumption season and OPEC+'s expansion cycle are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure, with a focus on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meetings [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures highlights the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+'s decision to continue increasing production, which could significantly impact oil price volatility next week; a continuation of production increases may further suppress prices, while a pause could lead to limited rebounds [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, are identified as short-term disturbances that could influence oil prices, with potential fluctuations of $5 to $10 if conflicts escalate [2] - The overall market sentiment is currently negative, with both macroeconomic and fundamental factors indicating bearish trends, necessitating close monitoring of future developments [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to the new round of OPEC+ production policy this weekend. Oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term and may fall to around $60 [7]. - LPG: Affected by the cost - end crude oil, LPG is weak. The current supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price mainly follows the oil price [10]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually turning into a double - strong one in September. It is recommended to try long positions on pullbacks [16]. - PP: The demand peak season is lackluster, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - PVC: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and wait and see [26]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [30]. - PTA: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the market risk preference is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [33]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices [37]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices [40]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits. It is recommended to focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.47%, Brent dropped 2.23%, and SC rose 0.41% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are rising, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices, and in the medium and long term, oil prices may fall to around $60. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is uncertainty about OPEC+ production increase. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, US commercial crude inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the support at around $60 for new shale oil wells. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 3, the PG main contract closed at 4429 yuan/ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG is not significant, and the price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. The cost - end still has room to decline. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7252 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan day - on - day; the North China Ning coal price was 7160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 196 lots [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn into a double - strong one in September. The production is expected to increase by 40,000 tons, and the demand support is strengthening [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Try long positions on pullbacks. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7300] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan day - on - day; the East China wire drawing market price was 6895 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 1205 lots [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand peak season is lackluster, the inventory of traders has increased significantly, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, but the absolute price is low, so there is also support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward drive of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan day - on - day; the Changzhou spot price was 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 612 lots [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling due to low - valuation support and wait and see. V focuses on the range of [4750 - 4950] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side domestic and foreign devices have changed little, the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance volume is high. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PXN is not low. The cost support is weakening due to the rumored OPEC+ oil production increase [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. PX511 focuses on the range of [6680 - 6810] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA East China price was 4740 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the devices have been overhauled as planned, and the overhaul volume is relatively high. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The 8 - 9 month supply - demand is in a tight balance, which is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, but the market risk preference is increasing [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4650 - 4730] [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is expected to be good, but the market expects the arrival volume to increase in the middle and late August, and the supply - side pressure will rise [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. EG01 focuses on the range of [4300 - 4350] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [40]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The demand side is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2390] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [45]. - **Basic Logic**: This week, the daily urea production is expected to continue to decline, but new devices will be put into operation as planned, and the daily production is expected to gradually recover in mid - and early September. The domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term long - short game intensifies, with range fluctuations. Focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a high opening but subsequently declined, with notable drops including Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, and Lingbao Gold down 4.4% [1][2] - Recent spot gold prices reached new highs, but there was a slight decline of 0.27% in early Asian trading, falling below $3,550 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that after reaching new highs, the risk of a short-term technical correction in gold stocks has significantly increased, urging investors to remain vigilant [2][3] Group 2 - Many gold companies' stock prices have risen far beyond their net profit growth rates, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, suggesting signs of a bubble [3] - High valuations necessitate either a stock price correction or earnings growth to be absorbed, increasing short-term risks [3] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, indicating a future dynamic between short-term volatility and long-term trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks have shown a trend of high opening and low closing, with significant declines in various companies' stock prices, indicating a potential short-term technical correction after recent highs in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent performance of gold stocks includes notable declines: Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, Lingbao Gold down 4.4%, and others experiencing declines of over 3% [1] - The latest prices for key gold stocks are as follows: Tongguan Gold at 2.060, China Gold International at 118.800, and Lingbao Gold at 15.820 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The spot gold market has recently reached new highs, but there was a drop of 0.27% today, falling below 3550 USD/ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the rapid increase in gold stock prices has outpaced the growth in net profits, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, indicating potential bubble-like conditions [1] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, suggesting a battle between short-term volatility and long-term trends [1]

Market Performance - On September 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Google shares rose over 9%, marking the best single-day performance since April 9, reaching a record high [1] - Apple shares increased by 3.8%, the largest gain in nearly a month [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July JOLTS job openings were 7.181 million, below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand [1] - Following the report, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply, continuing its depreciation trend, which benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold [1] Precious Metals Market - Spot gold rose by 0.78% to $3,560.67 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,621.80 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3,640.10, a new historical peak [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up 0.79% at 257.07 points, marking a record high for three consecutive trading days [1] - Spot silver increased by 0.78% to $41.20 per ounce, nearing the 2011 peak of $49.8044 per ounce [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocated for starting interest rate cuts this month, suggesting multiple reductions in the coming months [4][5] - Market expectations indicate a greater than 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [5] Oil Market Dynamics - On September 3, WTI crude oil fell over 2% to $64.19 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $67.81 per barrel [7] - Geopolitical tensions have driven recent oil price fluctuations, with ongoing conflicts affecting market stability [7] - Analysts predict that despite geopolitical factors pushing prices up, the overall supply surplus will continue to pressure oil prices, especially as the peak demand season ends [8] OPEC+ Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production levels in its upcoming meeting, with a projected increase of 2.467 million barrels per day, although actual increases have been around 1 million barrels per day [8] - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ keeps production unchanged, it could support oil prices, but the market is closely watching for any signals regarding future production plans [8] Market Sentiment and Risks - The macroeconomic environment appears stable, with U.S. stock indices recovering despite previous declines [9] - Short-term oil prices may find support due to stable macro conditions and inventory drawdowns, but medium-term risks are rising due to seasonal demand declines and OPEC+ production plans [10] - The U.S. shale oil production's breakeven points are critical, with $60 per barrel for new drilling and $40 for existing wells, indicating sensitivity to price changes [11]