Group 1 - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced investors' risk aversion, contributing to a significant rise in the US dollar index and a subsequent drop in international gold prices, which fell below the $4000 per ounce mark [1] - As of October 10, 2023, spot gold prices were reported at $3982.31 per ounce, reflecting a decline in gold prices [1] - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Bank of America, have indicated that the recent rapid increase in gold prices has been driven not only by fundamental factors but also by speculative positions, leading to potential pullback risks [3] Group 2 - The recent ceasefire in Gaza has prompted speculators to withdraw some gold positions, as the agreement has cooled tensions in the Middle East, although overall confidence in the market remains intact [3] - According to Guoxin Securities, long-term factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances are expected to support gold prices, indicating a sustained long-term bullish trend for gold over the next 2 to 3 years [4]

据外媒报道，10月8日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元大关，创历史新高。 | | 卖出 | | --- | --- | | 足金饰品 | 末丁丁65 | | 950铂金饰品 | ਝ ਦ 2 ਰ | | 生生金宝 | ま１０３３ | ■本文仅供交流学习，若侵犯到您的权益，敬请告知删除。 （出品：宜春市融媒体中心） （来源：央视财经、央视新闻） （编辑：邓晨圆；校对：欧阳娇兰；编审：夏侯婷；监制：彭晓英、刘重良） 此外，截至美东时间7日收盘时，美国纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价报每盎司4004.4美元，刷新收盘历史纪录，较前一交易日上涨0.71%。 高盛日前将2026年12月金价预期从此前的每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元，理由包括西方市场交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入强劲，以及各国央行有 望持续购金。 分析人士认为，美国联邦政府"停摆"引发避险情绪升温，助推金价走势。此外，法国、日本等国的政坛变动加剧投资者担忧，推动金价上涨。 随着国际金价近日大涨，国内黄金饰品价格也水涨船高。截至目前，周生生足金饰品价格涨至1165元/克，周大福足金饰品价格为1162元/克。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The intense game between the two parties in the US has led to the suspension of important economic data release, with no sign of alleviation. Meanwhile, there will be major adjustments in the Japanese political arena. Overall, the high uncertainty has caused the US dollar index, precious metals, and metal prices to run strongly in sync. It is expected that the domestic market will open higher after the holiday, but considering the departure of most long - position funds in the Shanghai aluminum market before the holiday and the average overall open interest, the upside space is estimated to be limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the upper limit of the range at 21,000. On the fundamental side, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to high - level hedging opportunities [6][9] Summary by Directory Alumina - Industry Fundamentals Supply - In September, the in - production capacity increased by 3.5 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate increased month - on - month. The weekly arrival volume of domestic ores decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume from Guinea decreased month - on - month. The overall supply is stable with minor fluctuations, and the in - production capacity shows a slight overall increase [9][11] Import - In August 2025, China's net export of alumina was 85,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 17 consecutive months of net exports. The import profit converged week - on - week [9][21] Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level. In the short term, the demand for alumina was relatively stable [9] Profit - The full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan, with a profit of 196.7 yuan/ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased significantly. The caustic soda price was 3,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [9] Inventory - Warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Weekly production and weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and production remained in surplus. The spot price declined but was still at a premium to the futures price. As the supply gradually becomes looser, it is expected that the spot price will continue to converge downward [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals Supply - The in - production capacity increased slightly. In August, the net import was 191,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43,300 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,900 tons. The current import loss was 1,765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week widening of 121 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the premium of primary aluminum over scrap aluminum converged by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week. In August, the import of scrap aluminum was 172,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 12,100 tons [9][56][61] Demand - In August, the output of aluminum products was 5.5482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 64,500 tons. The output of aluminum alloy was 163,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 99,000 tons [9] Profit - The smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the current smelting cost was around 16,463 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4,387 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] Inventory - The social inventory was 591,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 tons and an in - week decrease of 24,000 tons. The spot price fluctuated weakly at a high level with the futures price. The discount of the spot price converged during the week, and downstream buyers still had some resistance to high prices [9]

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged, with spot silver exceeding $50 per ounce for the first time in history, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 73%, outperforming gold [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to heightened risk aversion, leading to a broad rally across various metals including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [2] Price Movements - On September 1, spot silver broke through the $40 per ounce mark, continuing its upward momentum [2] - As of October 8, the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 11,169 yuan per kilogram, with an intraday high of 11,309 yuan per kilogram [2] - Silver has experienced a continuous price increase for five consecutive months [2]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-10 品种晨会纪要 核心逻辑：美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。全球金融市场避险情绪大幅升温， 风险资产受到承压，宏观因子转弱。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇开工率和周度产量依然维 持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，年内进口峰值已经到来，由此导致节后港口甲醇库存居高不 下。虽然下游需求逐渐好转，不过烯烃盘面利润不佳，弱需现状仍待改善。在产业因子乏力的背景 下，预计本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏 ...

张尧浠：哈以停火再减避险担忧、金价又又回踩看涨支撑 上交易日周四(10月9日)：国际黄金由于美元继续反弹走高，且以色列和哈马斯达成停火协议后，第一阶段正式生效黄金投资者获利了结，遇阻回落收 跌，一度一举收复前两日涨幅，但目前仍未跌破5日及10日均线支撑，看涨趋势良好，走势仍处于看涨趋势之中，美联储"三把手"支持进一步降息，美政 府停摆仍将影响经济数据和增强后续的降息前进，故此，也暗示后市走势仍有再度走强盘升的预期，关注5-10日均线支撑回踩的多单机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4041.07美元/盎司，短暂坠落走低40美金后，震荡回升，于美盘初录得日内高点4057.49美元，之后遇阻在21点半时段和次日 0点半时段两度跳水，并至1点时段录得日内低点3944.91美元，最后触底回升，收于3975.95美元，收在4小时30均线和5日均线之上，这也为第二日增添了 看涨买盘的支撑，就此日振幅112.58美元，收跌65.12美元，跌幅1.41%。 展望今日周五(10月10日)：国际黄金开盘受到支撑买盘和昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，但美元指数仍维持反弹动力，对金价多头产生一定限制，金 价需重回4小时10均线上方才能 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价9日下跌1.95%，收于每盎司3991.10美 元。 现货黄金和白银均创下历史新高，引发短期期货交易员获利回吐和多头平仓，导致黄金、白银价格当日 大跌。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新数据，巴西央行9月份购买近16吨黄金，其黄金持有量目前总计145 吨。 以色列与哈马斯达成协议，释放哈马斯在加沙地带扣押的所有人质，以哈双方朝着结束两年战争迈出了 重要一步。地缘政治危机缓解也打压金价。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格跌2.73%，收于每盎司47.66美元。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 央行需求是金价突破每盎司4000美元历史高位的关键因素。市场分析人士认为，尽管金价上涨可能导致 需求放缓，但随着更多央行进入市场，金价上涨趋势不会很快消失。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头拥有强劲技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是突破4100美元坚固阻力 价位。空头的下一个下行价格目标是跌破3850美元的坚固技术支撑价位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements regarding export controls on superhard materials, certain rare earth equipment, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials aim to protect national security interests and maintain the balance of the domestic industrial chain [1][2]. Export Control Measures - The export control measures will take effect from November 8, and they require approval for exports rather than an outright ban, which is intended to prevent low-priced exports that could harm domestic interests [2]. - The regulation on artificial graphite anode materials is expected to increase domestic lithium battery sales, as foreign companies will face difficulties in sourcing these materials [2]. Impact on Domestic Industries - The export controls are anticipated to enhance the interests of domestic companies, leading to increased product value and potential price hikes [2]. - The recent surge in gold prices, which have exceeded $4,000, is seen as a protective measure for prices amid rising international metal prices [2][4]. Market Trends - The gold price increase is attributed to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a scarcity of investment options, driving funds towards gold and precious metals [4]. - The recent rise in the US dollar index indicates a return of funds to the dollar, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [4]. Strategic Resources - Rare earth elements and lithium batteries are highlighted as critical resources for the country, serving as strategic tools for countermeasures in international trade [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market experienced a significant decline, with the December 2025 gold price dropping by 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce, influenced by profit-taking and geopolitical developments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The spot prices for gold and silver reached historical highs, leading to short-term traders taking profits and closing long positions, which resulted in a sharp decline in prices [1] - The December silver futures price fell by 2.73%, closing at $47.66 per ounce [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - A key factor in the decline of gold prices was the agreement between Israel and Hamas to release hostages, signaling a potential easing of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Central Bank Demand - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Brazil's central bank purchased nearly 16 tons of gold in September, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons [1] - Central bank demand is identified as a crucial factor for gold prices to surpass the historical high of $4000 per ounce, with analysts suggesting that the upward trend in gold prices is unlikely to fade quickly despite potential demand slowdown [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The December gold futures market shows strong technical advantages for bulls, with the next upward target set at breaking the solid resistance level of $4100, while bears aim to break the solid support level of $3850 [1]

央行的持续买入也强化了这一趋势。国家外汇管理局近日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406 万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。此外，俄罗斯、印度、土耳其等国也 在增加黄金配置。高盛最新报告预计，未来两年，各国央行仍将维持较高的净购金量，以实现储备结构 的多元化。 不过，金价大涨背后，也潜藏着投资风险。10月9日，沪金主力合约一度突破每克900元，品牌金饰价格 更是逼近每克1200元。当普通消费者在柜台前犹豫"要不要买点金子压箱底"时，资本市场的资金也在高 位徘徊。短期看，金价的涨幅已经充分反映了市场对"弱美元""降息预期""避险情绪"等利好因素的定 价。若未来宏观数据好转或地缘风险缓和，金价不排除出现阶段性回调的可能。历史上，2011年金价见 顶后曾连续四年下跌，跌幅近一半，这足以提醒投资者：黄金避险，从来不是无风险的庇护。 □徐兵 近期，黄金又一次站上了舆论的风口。数据显示，现货金价突破每盎司4000美元关口，刷新历史纪录， 年内累计涨幅超过50%。从券商研报到社交平台，一股"金色狂欢"蔓延开来：金价涨、黄金股涨、金饰 也涨，仿佛一场全民"淘金热"正在上演。面对这股热浪，普通投 ...