避险情绪减弱，贵金属走势或分化 摘 要： 中美领导人釜山会晤后，中美贸易领域的矛盾按下暂停键，经 济避险情绪略有缓解。美元指数持续反弹，整体施压贵金属，但是 买盘力量依然有支撑，贵金属存在反弹动力，特别是白银，存在较 强的补涨需求。目前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济 的数据无法进一步获得，从美联储官员的表述来看，美国经济依然 有一定韧性，但下行压力增加。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"，目前美国政府依然处于停摆之中，政府停摆尚 未结束，美联储关于 12 月降息分歧再度加大，上周多名美联储官 员反对 12 月降息，使得未来关于降息的节奏变得更加不确定性。 给贵金属的走势带来波动因素。由于政府停摆，可以参考的经济数 据有限。美国 9 月 CPI 同比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于 市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后， 市场已经完全消化美联储年内剩余时间两次降息25个基点的预期， 但近期该预期有所波动。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][66]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The marginal weakening of risk aversion has led to a decline in gold prices. As of October 31, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,077.2 per ounce, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.7% decrease to 1,039.2 tons. The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the decision to halt balance sheet reduction are expected to keep gold prices fluctuating in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: Improved macro sentiment has strengthened the fundamentals for copper. As of October 31, the SHFE copper futures contract fell by 0.81% to 87,010 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 182,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 134,600 tons. The tightening supply of copper resources and improving macro sentiment are expected to support copper prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to reduced risk aversion, but the long-term outlook is positive as the monetary attributes of gold are expected to strengthen [4][7]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals are improving with a slight increase in domestic inventory and tightening supply from overseas. The macro sentiment is also improving, which is expected to support copper prices [6][5]. - **Aluminum**: The LME aluminum price increased by 1.1% to $2,888 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 619,000 tons, with a slight increase. The supply-demand balance is expected to tighten, supporting aluminum prices [6]. - **Tin**: The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 0.1% to 283,900 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased by 144 tons. The supply of tin remains tight, and prices are expected to trend upwards [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Shares is recommended [7][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - **Aluminum**: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - **Silicon**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - **Downstream Data**: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - **Downstream Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing upward pressure due to a combination of factors including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Market Data - On October 31, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 921.92 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.27% with a trading volume of 395,964 lots and an open interest of 156,891 lots [1]. Fundamental News - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on October 31 was quoted at 916.60 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 5.32 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3]. - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is fueled by recent weak employment reports, which have intensified the urgency for monetary easing [3]. - Heightened risk aversion due to factors such as U.S. debt expansion, de-dollarization, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the reshaping of economic dynamics has increased the strategic value of gold as a hedge [3]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Heng Tai Futures, in the long term, non-U.S. assets are expected to outperform due to the deterioration of the U.S. credit system and the restructuring of the global monetary system. Gold remains a key asset for long-term allocation [5]. - In the short term, after a significant rise in gold prices, technical indicators suggest that the market is in an overbought condition, indicating a potential for a substantial pullback. Traders are advised to take partial profits on long positions [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded this week, trading around $4003 after hitting a low of $3900 on October 6, driven by increased investor risk aversion due to concerns over a potential long-term U.S. government shutdown [1] Market Analysis - The market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold due to fears of a prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated uncertainty regarding a rate cut in December, which has been interpreted as a hawkish signal, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and limiting gold's rebound [1] - A recent trade easing agreement between the U.S. and Asian countries during the APEC meeting has reduced global risk aversion, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Technical Analysis - Gold formed a bullish candlestick pattern, ending a four-day losing streak, which was unexpected given the fundamental pressures from the uncertainty around the December rate cut [2] - The market is currently exhibiting complex emotions, with signs of a potential emotional trading resurgence [2] - The price action suggests a shift to a range-bound trading expectation, with key resistance levels at $4070-$4080 and support around $3980 [4] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy involves focusing on the range between $3980 and $4050/60 for short-term trades, with adjustments based on market movements [4] - Aggressive positions can be taken near $4003, targeting levels around $4020-$4030 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been dramatic, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, followed by a sharp decline to below $3,900 per ounce by October 28, marking a significant drop of nearly $500 and the largest single-day decline in 12 years [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Decline - The decrease in global "risk aversion" sentiment has played a crucial role, as positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations and signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced the urgency for investors to seek gold as a safe haven [2][4]. - Technical selling pressure has emerged, with early investors cashing in on profits after a significant price increase from around $3,600 to nearly $4,400 per ounce, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs [4][5]. - The breach of the psychological and technical support level of $4,000 triggered automated selling orders, further exacerbating the price decline as many investors had set strategies to sell upon reaching this threshold [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Related Markets - The silver market has also experienced a significant drop, with prices falling from approximately $54 per ounce to around $46, reflecting a 16% decline, which is closely tied to the movements in the gold market [6][7]. - Changes in central bank attitudes towards gold have been noted, with some officials suggesting a reconsideration of high gold reserves, potentially leading to selling pressure that could further impact gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Domestic Market Reactions - Domestic gold jewelry and investment bar prices have adjusted downward in response to international price changes, providing opportunities for consumers who were previously deterred by high prices [8][10]. - The adjustment in investment bar prices offers new reference points for potential investors, encouraging them to reassess their entry into the gold market [10][11]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions have varying outlooks on gold prices, with some analysts predicting further declines due to improved trade agreement expectations and potential government shutdown resolutions, while others maintain that long-term upward trends remain intact due to ongoing global uncertainties [12][13]. - HSBC and Standard Chartered have raised their long-term price forecasts, citing strong demand from central banks and geopolitical risks as key factors supporting gold prices [14][15].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: After the China-US summit, the risk aversion sentiment may continue to cool down. Although the US government is still shut down, the buying power of gold remains strong. Gold may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and investors should adopt a range - trading mindset. Pay attention to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a mix of long - term supply surplus pressure and short - term positive factors. Short - term positive factors include last week's favorable EIA inventory data, US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the trade relaxation agreement reached after the China - US meeting in Busan, South Korea. Wait for the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The counter - cyclical policy continues to be intensified, and the economic recovery has strong resilience, which is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. Open - market treasury bond trading, liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect make bond market operations more difficult. Adopt a slightly bullish trading mindset in the medium term [4]. - **Silver**: Positive information from the China - US talks and better - than - expected economic recovery in the eurozone increase risk appetite and boost silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [4]. - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, providing solid support on the demand side. However, with new plants starting trial operations, the expectation of weakening supply - demand is strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices weakens the cost support. The PTA market may decline slightly in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Rubber**: China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which provides medium - term support. With the reduction of macro - pressure, the market is expected to move upward. Adopt a bullish trading mindset at low levels [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The national live pig price mainly declined yesterday. After the price continued to rise, the terminal acceptance is poor, and the entry of second - fattening pigs decreased significantly. The price may fluctuate weakly in the near future. However, the slaughter pressure of farmers at the end of the month is not large, and the demand is slowly improving, providing short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As the end - of - month export and production data of Malaysian palm oil are about to be released, the market pays high attention. The fundamentals of palm oil are expected to improve in November. Palm oil will have bottom support and fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and the low - inventory status of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of rapeseed meal price decline. With the stagnation of domestic rapeseed crushing and low oil mill operating rates, it is recommended to buy at low levels. Pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly. The methanol market in Jiangsu shows inventory reduction, and the inland market price declines. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2225. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply remaining at a high level. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [9]. - **Plastic**: On the supply side, the number of temporary shutdowns of LLDPE plants increases, production proportion decreases, and production enterprise inventory declines. On the demand side, although the peak season is not prosperous, downstream factory operations increase, and they maintain just - in - time replenishment. The cost support weakens. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias in the short term, with support at 6930. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Product Category Metals - **Gold**: After the China - US summit, risk aversion cools, but gold buying power is strong. Medium - term high - level fluctuation [1]. - **Silver**: Positive China - US talks and better - than - expected eurozone economic recovery boost silver. Bullish bias [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Long - term supply surplus and short - term positive factors coexist. Wait for OPEC+ meeting results [2]. Bonds - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Counter - cyclical policy intensifies, and economic resilience is strong. Bond market operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is low, but new plants and weakening crude oil prices may lead to a short - term decline [5]. - **Methanol**: High production, stable demand, and slightly fluctuating inventory. Short - term weak fluctuation [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Stable float glass operation and decreasing inventory. Soda ash market is stable, with short - term fluctuation [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply reduction and demand increase, with weakening cost support. Slightly bullish short - term fluctuation [10]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Price decline and short - term support due to end - of - month factors [6]. - **Palm Oil**: End - of - month data attention and improving fundamentals in November. Short - term bottom - supported fluctuation [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply shortage and low inventory. Recommended to buy at low levels [7]. - **Rubber**: Declining inventory and reduced macro - pressure. Bullish at low levels [5].

Group 1 - Microsoft and OpenAI's renewed partnership is viewed positively by the market, providing a sense of security for both institutional and retail investors [1] - Cameco and nuclear stocks experienced a rebound due to government actions and favorable policies, highlighted by an $80 billion nuclear reactor agreement [1] - Strong performance data and collaboration between UPS and PayPal have positively impacted stock prices, reflecting a combination of solid earnings and logical partnerships [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a divergence, with European stocks opening slightly lower while Asian stocks are generally down, indicating a lack of synchronized global market movements [1] - The USD index is hovering around 98.8, with the Japanese yen strengthening to 151.95, influenced by political dialogues among fiscal officials [1] - Following communication between U.S. and Japanese officials, the yen's short-term strength is interpreted as a potential signal for a weaker dollar [1] Group 3 - There is a calculation among traders and analysts regarding whether interest rate cuts will accelerate stock market gains or inflate bubbles, with a short-term inclination towards the former [3] - Gold prices have retreated from last week's historical highs to around $3,900, attributed to technical corrections and a return to balanced risk aversion [3] - Citigroup and Saxo's bearish perspectives on gold are supported by factors such as easing trade tensions and concerns over U.S. government shutdowns [3] Group 4 - The high price of gold indicates a long-term demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting that prices could rebound quickly if uncertainties arise again [5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen slight declines, with market sentiment shifting towards risk assets, although the enthusiasm remains lukewarm [5] - The current market resembles passengers stretching after sitting for a long time, with key upcoming events like the Federal Reserve meeting and tech earnings acting as critical indicators [5] Group 5 - Investors are advised to adopt a layered approach, participating in growth stocks while maintaining discipline in position sizing and valuation [7] - The narrative surrounding Apple's market capitalization crossing $4 trillion is overly dramatized, reflecting a blend of regulatory risks, market sentiment, and company fundamentals [7] - Collaborations like that of Microsoft and OpenAI serve as concrete indicators of industry trends, highlighting areas with cash flow and potential for valuation premiums [9] Group 6 - The market is not necessarily becoming smarter but is slowly digesting information and re-pricing assets, with numerous short-term opportunities and persistent long-term risks [11] - A cautious optimism is suggested, focusing on growth supported by fundamentals rather than purely chasing momentum, while treating gold and certain safe-haven assets as insurance [11] - The next two weeks are critical, with attention on the Federal Reserve's statements, major tech earnings, and any unforeseen geopolitical events that could rapidly alter market dynamics [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024. This led to significant market volatility, particularly in gold prices, which initially surged but then fell sharply due to market reactions to the Fed's statements [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, spot gold prices briefly rose to $4020 per ounce before dropping below $3980, illustrating the classic market behavior of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [3]. - Prior to the rate cut, market expectations for a reduction were extremely high, with a 98% probability, leading to a significant increase in gold prices from $3726 to a peak of $4400, an over 18% rise in just over a month [3]. Economic Context - The market environment was particularly sensitive, with gold prices having recently experienced a decline from $4400 to below $3900, a drop of $500, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and progress in U.S.-China trade talks [5]. - The volatility in gold prices was also attributed to technical indicators, with the RSI remaining above 70, indicating overbought conditions [7]. Investor Behavior - The Fed's hawkish signals regarding future rate cuts led to profit-taking among investors, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices shortly after the announcement [3][7]. - There is a notable divergence in investor sentiment, with some viewing the rate cut as a signal that bullish momentum has peaked, while others maintain a long-term bullish outlook based on expectations of continued monetary easing [9]. Interest Rates and Gold Prices - Despite the rate cut, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a critical factor affecting gold prices [11]. - The Fed's cautious stance on inflation may slow the pace of real interest rate declines, further complicating the outlook for gold [11]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks have been net buyers of gold, with global official gold reserves increasing by 10 tons in July 2025, and the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for ten consecutive months [7][15]. - This structural buying by central banks is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, although it may not fully offset short-term speculative selling [9][15]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will fluctuate between $3700 and $4050 by the end of 2025, with potential upward pressure from a weak dollar, despite possible limitations on price increases if the Fed's rate cuts are less aggressive than expected [13]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold typically experiences significant volatility following initial rate cuts, with an average volatility of 12% in the month following such events [13].