Group 1 - The U.S. government plans to meet with oil executives to discuss revitalizing Venezuela's struggling oil industry, which has seen production drop from over 3 million barrels per day to less than 1 million due to aging infrastructure and lack of investment [1] - Chevron is currently the only major oil company operating in Venezuela, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips previously dominated the market before nationalization under former President Chavez [1] - The meeting aims to explore how new equipment and technology can quickly boost oil production in Venezuela, highlighting the geopolitical risks in the market [1] Group 2 - Silver TD prices have shown a bullish trend, with a 6% increase yesterday and an additional 3% rise today, indicating strong market activity [1] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is dominant, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone, signaling high market activity [1] - Key support levels for Silver TD are identified between 18,500 and 19,000, with resistance levels noted between 20,000 and 25,000 [1]

摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1004.21元/克，较前一交易日下跌5.40美元，跌幅 0.53%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1009.70元/克，最高价1011.03元/克，最低价1002.00元/克。 近期地缘不确定性显著上行，美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发全球风险偏好回落，避险资金加速配置贵 金属；多家机构与研究人士指出，国际形势动荡对金价的短期与中期支撑均在强化。 中长期看，地缘风险与"制度性不确定性"被纳入黄金定价框架的核心变量，黄金作为"无对手风险"的储 备资产地位进一步凸显，配置需求具有韧性。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年11月各国央行净买入约45吨，1—11月累计接近297吨；展望2026年，瑞 银预计全球央行净购金或达约950吨，延续近年高位。央行增持强化了黄金的中长期需求基础与价格韧 性。 一方面，黄金ETF与配置资金流入回升；另一方面，国内春节前后传统旺季对金饰与实物形成支撑，但 高金价对首饰销量形成一定抑制，渠道周转与借金业务趋于谨慎，价格传导呈现"投资强、消费弱"的结 构性分化。 瑞银财富管理预计金价在2026年一季度末有望上探5000美元/盎司，若政治或金融风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - policies. Different industries show different trends, with some expected to be strong in the short - term, some in a state of shock, and others facing downward pressure [2][3][4] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical events, and investors need to pay attention to the follow - up impact of these events on different industries [2][13][15] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the nickel price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000, with attention to the breakthrough around 150,000 [2][40] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern. The 05 contract is recommended to buy at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][59] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][79] - **Silver**: The tight inventory boosts the price. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy [6][17] Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market is on the rise, and the four major stock index futures contracts are all rising. It is recommended to hold a bullish spread portfolio and build a covered call portfolio on dips [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and tend to steepen the curve [10][11][12] Precious Metals - The geopolitical risks and supply tightness drive the prices of precious metals to rise. Gold is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300. Silver is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term and are recommended to be lightly long on dips [13][15][17] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a new high. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2,700 - 3,000 [22][24] - **Aluminum**: The price hits a new high. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 23,800 - 24,800. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and long positions can be established on dips [24][26][27] - **Zinc**: The price center moves up. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference support at 23,300 - 23,400. Long positions can be held, and cross - market reverse arbitrage can be continued [30][33] - **Tin**: Affected by news and sentiment, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [34][38] - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000 [2][38][40] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by raw material tightening expectations, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [41][44] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is rising strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there are risks of liquidity and regulation. It is recommended to wait and see and convert long positions to call options appropriately [45][49][50] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rises and then falls. It is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [50][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [52][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The night - session raw materials drive the steel price to rise. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the range, with a reference range of 3,000 - 3,200 for rebar and 3,150 - 3,350 for hot - rolled coils [55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The price is weak in the spot market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [60][63] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts is implemented. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [64][68] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the policy, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 5,500 - 6,000 [69][71] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is supported by manganese ore. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 6,000 [72][74] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The global loose pattern and South American bumper harvest expectations suppress the market. The domestic spot is loose. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [75][76][77] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][78][79] - **Corn**: There is a game between short - selling and policy support. The price is expected to fluctuate [80][81] - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil and India. The domestic market is affected by the peak season of sugar production. It is expected to be in a low - level shock [83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is expected to be in a shock. The domestic cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [85] - **Egg**: The supply pressure is relieved. The price is expected to be in a low - level shock [88] - **Oil**: The palm oil may face downward pressure. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to have limited upside [89][90][91] - **Jujube**: The price is stable, but the trading volume is poor. It is necessary to pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking and the planting area in 2026 [92] - **Apple**: The good - quality fruit is scarce, driving the price up. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual de - stocking progress [93][94] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [95][96] - **PTA**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [97][98] - **Short - fiber**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to follow the raw materials to fluctuate [99][100] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and the processing fee has limited upside space [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in January [103][104] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is stable, and the demand is slightly improved. The price is under pressure due to high inventory [106] - **Styrene**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The price rebound space is limited [107][108] - **LLDPE**: The market is covering short positions. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term [109] - **PP**: The supply and demand are weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit expansion [110] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounds, and the spot price is stable. The market is expected to be stable and weak [111][113] - **PVC**: The price rises, but the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected to decline in a shock [114] - **Urea**: The Indian tender result boosts the market. It is expected to be strong in a shock in the short - term [115] - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Glass**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the sales and production sustainability. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119] - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment drives the price up. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited. The BR contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short [121][123]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月07日 (原油) 夜盘油价遭遇回调，近期油价呈现剧烈波动特点。伊朗局势持续紧张但目前仍在可控范围内，市场 对地缘风险紧张情绪逐渐趋弱,盘面呈现高位卖压与空头增仓。地缘风险能否有效提振油价,取决 于其是否对供应造成实质性减量，否则对油价的影响将仅限于短期波动，且盘面反应力度会逐步减 弱。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延 续，贵金属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，维持多 头参与思路。今晚关注美国ADP就业、ISM非制造业PMI以及职位空缺数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价记录位置震荡，沪铜关注仓量变动。花旗上调短线铜目标位至1.4万美元、约10.8-10.9万 一线，中长线维持1.3万美元；高盛表示铜实际需求承压，不过走势关键在美伦价差，昨日两市价差 收窄到50美元。国内观铜走高到103665元，上海贴水20元，精废价差6100元。因跨年涨势快LME实 值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35万美元。观望，前期2602期权组合策略减仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties. Venezuelan sea - area imports and exports are affected by the blockade, and the Iran - Israel situation has also escalated. The short - term price of crude oil may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums, but the upside price elasticity is small. [5] - In the short - term, if Venezuela enters a political transition period, its production may decline, with an extreme reduction of 30 - 50 barrels per day. However, the large surplus of global crude oil in the first quarter means this won't change the overall situation. [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, with a stable political environment, Venezuelan crude oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. Venezuela may become the biggest uncertain supply increase factor from 2026 - 2027. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Price Changes**: From 2025/12/29 to 2026/01/06, WTI decreased by $1.19, BRENT by $1.06, and DUBAI by $1.16. SC increased by 6.50, and OMAN decreased by 1.13. [3] - **Differential Changes**: The differences such as WTI - BRENT, DUBAI - BRT, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.13, and DUBAI - BRT increased by 0.16. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The US has asked Venezuela to cooperate only with the US in oil production and prioritize the US when selling heavy crude oil. [3] - Russia sent submarines to escort an oil tanker that the US tried to seize near Venezuela, and Russia asked the US to stop the pursuit. [4] - Trump said Venezuela's interim management will hand over 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned oil to the US. [4] - Iran's Defense Committee warned that it may launch a preemptive strike if it perceives an imminent threat to its security. [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - In the week of December 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day. [4] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 405,000 barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase. [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.539 million barrels per day, a 0.75% decrease compared to the same period last year. [6] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 413 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. [6] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.086 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run in a moderately strong manner on January 7, 2026, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and an intraday view of being moderately strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has dissipated, weakening the bullish drive. Currently, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday, and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the moderately strong volatile pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61

Core Viewpoint - The first fuel price adjustment of 2026 has been suspended due to insufficient price changes in the international oil market, with the adjustment amount being less than 50 yuan per ton [3][4]. Group 1: Fuel Price Adjustment - The average price of crude oil in the first ten working days of January 2026 was $60.24 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle [4]. - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of an increase in fuel prices due to ongoing supply risks and geopolitical tensions [6][7]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels, accounting for 4% of global demand, indicating a prevailing oversupply situation [5]. - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026, which may support oil prices in the short term [5][6].

Group 1 - The fuel costs for residents' driving and logistics transportation will remain unchanged in the next half month due to the decision to not adjust fuel prices in early January 2026 [1] - The average price of crude oil during the current pricing cycle is reported at $60.24 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a potential price adjustment of around 30 yuan per ton, which is below the 50 yuan adjustment threshold [1] - The domestic fuel prices are anchored to global crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and weak supply-demand structures in the global oil market [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels for the year, accounting for 4% of global demand, establishing a supply surplus as the main market trend [2] - OPEC+ has announced that it will maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [2] - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of price increases due to ongoing supply risks from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [3] Group 3 - The demand for oil is expected to be supported by the festive atmosphere in the West and the cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of economic slowdown prompting interest rate cuts, creating a dual support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index has retreated from high levels, trading around 98.314, while gold prices are at $4461.06 per ounce, reflecting a 0.29% increase, with a high of $4475.46 and a low of $4426.09 [1]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US military actions against Venezuela, have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - Weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data for December has reinforced market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has pressured the dollar and supported gold prices [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The current upward trend in gold prices is based on the assumptions of sustained geopolitical risks and economic slowdown necessitating rate cuts, indicating a fragile foundation for this rise [3]. - The market is entering a critical verification period where the sustainability of the trend will depend on upcoming economic data supporting the narrative of monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the arrest of Venezuela's president, which has provided strong upward momentum for gold [4]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a clear bullish arrangement in the moving averages [5]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4400, while resistance is seen at $4480, with the market currently fluctuating between $4420 and $4460 [6].