Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Group 1 - The brokerage sector experienced a significant pullback on July 31, with 49 brokerage stocks declining, except for Tianfeng Securities, and notable drops in Haitou Shares and Bank of China Securities exceeding 3% [1] - The A-share leading brokerage ETF (512000) saw its intraday price drop by approximately 2%, currently down 1.45%, falling below the 10-day moving average [1] - According to Yinhe Securities, the policy goals of "stabilizing growth and the stock market" and "boosting the capital market" will continue to guide the future direction of the sector, supported by a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [2][3] Group 2 - As of July 30, 2025, the PB valuation of the CSI All Share Securities Company Index tracked by the brokerage ETF (512000) is 1.57 times, which is at a relatively low level within the past decade, indicating a high safety margin for investment [3] - The brokerage ETF (512000) encompasses 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, while the remaining 40% includes smaller brokerages with high earnings elasticity [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a pullback on July 31, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of up to 2.25% during trading [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Qixiang Tengda, Xin Fengming, and Luxi Chemical, saw declines exceeding 3%, negatively impacting the overall sector performance [1] - Despite the pullback, the chemical sector has performed well in July, with the chemical ETF's index showing a cumulative increase of 10.18%, significantly outperforming major A-share indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (4.97%) and the CSI 300 Index (5.47%) [1][3] Group 2 - There were no significant negative news affecting the chemical sector today, and the decline may be a normal correction after substantial short-term gains [1] - The chemical sector's index has been on a downward trend since the peak in 2022, but expectations for "anti-involution" policies have led to a recovery in valuations [4] - The current market conditions may present a good opportunity for investment in the chemical sector, as the chemical ETF's price-to-book ratio is at a low point compared to the past decade [5] Group 3 - Future prospects for the chemical sector are optimistic, with government initiatives aimed at promoting growth and eliminating outdated production capacity [6] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the index covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing a diversified investment opportunity [6]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasizes the continuation of supportive economic policies, focusing on breaking the "involution," promoting service consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade, aiming to consolidate the economic recovery and capital market stability [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The coal chemical industry is undergoing structural adjustments and industrial upgrades, with an optimistic outlook for supply and demand optimization, benefiting related companies such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Chengzhi Co., and China Xuyang Group [4] Group 3: Company Research - Baowu Magnesium Industry's performance is impacted by declining magnesium prices, but the magnesium-aluminum price ratio has remained below 1 for the past 11 months, indicating growth potential in automotive lightweight applications and robotics [5] - Sujiao Technology reported a decline in traditional business but is seeing rapid growth in emerging sectors, with a focus on deepening low-altitude business layouts despite financial pressures [6] - WuXi AppTec's half-year report shows significant revenue growth, with operating income reaching 20.799 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 5.58 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to address ongoing economic challenges while maintaining growth momentum, highlighting the importance of stability and flexibility in policy implementation [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the positive performance of major economic indicators and the effective prevention of risks in key areas [1][2]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting called for continuous and timely strengthening of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stability and progress, and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [3][6]. - It was noted that fiscal policy should be more proactive, while monetary policy should remain moderately accommodative [5][7]. Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - The meeting outlined key tasks for the second half of the year, including releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, and expanding high-level opening-up [9][14]. - Specific actions include implementing consumption-boosting initiatives, enhancing support for small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [10][12]. Financial Measures - The meeting proposed accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve funding efficiency and support economic recovery [7][8]. - It was suggested that new significant measures may be introduced in the second half to bolster growth, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending [7][8]. Employment and Social Welfare - Emphasis was placed on prioritizing employment, particularly for key groups such as college graduates and veterans, and ensuring the implementation of social welfare policies [16]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining food security and preventing large-scale poverty [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth remains robust, with a broad infrastructure investment growth rate of 8.9% in the first half of 2025, despite a slight decline from previous values [3][30] - Real estate investment continues to face pressure, with a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in the first half of 2025 [44] - The construction sector is experiencing a slight increase in fund holdings, with a fund holding market value ratio of 0.43% in Q2 2025, which is still below the standard allocation ratio of 1.77% [65][66] Summary by Sections Special Debt Issuance - The pace of special debt issuance has accelerated, with a total of 2.16 trillion yuan issued in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45% [6][3] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, focusing on investment construction and land acquisition [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with a total of 248,654 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.8% year-on-year increase [27] - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with significant growth in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors, which saw a 22.8% year-on-year increase [35][30] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment and sales continue to decline, with a 3.5% decrease in commodity housing sales area in the first half of 2025 [44] - New construction and completion areas have seen a narrowing decline, with new construction down 20.0% year-on-year but improving from previous months [46] Fund Holdings in Construction - Fund holdings in the construction sector have slightly increased, with a market value of 132.95 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 9.24% increase from Q1 2025 [65] - The construction sector remains underweight compared to the standard allocation, indicating potential for growth [65][66] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable growth, high dividends, overseas expansion, and regional construction projects, highlighting companies such as China State Construction, China Railway, and others [3][1]

龙虎榜机构热股 今天机构龙虎榜上榜35只个股，净买入18只，净卖出17只。当日机构买入最多的个股前三位是：长飞光纤（3日1.79亿）、西藏天路（1.26亿）、英维克 （8436万）。 | 上榜热股 | 实时涨跌幅 | 买/卖家数 | 机树 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 长飞光纤 601869.55 | +10.00% | 3/1 | +1 | | 3日 | | | | | 西藏天路 600326.SS | +3.95% | 1 / 0 | +1 | | 音维声 002837 57 | 19 990/ | 1/0 | 12/ | 英维克 龙虎榜显示今日1家机构净买入8436万。 据此前字节跳动官方披露，字节跳动中国大陆自建数据中心模块化机房单元项目，将于2025年7月30日开始招标。 根据公司公告，公司已为包括字节跳动在内等用户的大型数据中心提供了大量高效节能的制冷产品及系统。 龙虎榜知名游资 韩建河山 八一钢铁 个股龙虎榜 二、水利 设研院 个股龙虎榜 一、钢铁 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，完善了低价倾销的认定标 ...

Group 1 - The Politburo meeting on July 30 acknowledged the positive economic momentum in the first half of the year while emphasizing the need for bottom-line thinking and proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][8] - Key areas for risk mitigation identified include real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and effective investment [1][3][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of service consumption and proposed measures to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment in the context of a weak real estate sector [10][11] Group 2 - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will directly address the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, reflecting the urgency of planning in the current international environment [4][11] - The meeting's content was largely in line with expectations, with limited incremental policies introduced, leading to a muted market reaction [12]