文丨李伟长江商学院副院长、经济学教授 7月10日，中国汽车工业协会公布了最新的中国汽车产销量及出口数据：今年1-6月我国汽车产销量分别 达到1562.1万辆和1565.3万辆，同比分别增长12.5%和11.4%，其中，新能源汽车产销量分别为696.8万辆 和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40.3%，新能源汽车新车销量占到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。同时， 上半年汽车总体出口308.3万辆，同比增长10.4%，其中新能源汽车出口106万辆，同比增长75.2%。在经 济不景气的大环境下，中国汽车产业尤其是新能源汽车仍展现出蓬勃的生命力！ 笔者认为主要是两个核心因素，一是引入了企业间的竞争机制；二是地方政府间的竞争及对企业减税。 下面我们分别展开讨论。 首先来谈企业间竞争机制的引入。中国的汽车产业曾经是高度管制的产业，管制的方式主要是控制生产 许可证的审批，尤其对轿车的生产控制十分严格。直到2001年11月，吉利汽车才终于拿到了轿车"准生 证"，成为中国首家获得轿车生产资格的民营企业，打破了国有车企和合资车企垄断市场的局面。2003 年，当时主业是电池业务的比亚迪，通过收购拥有轿车目录的老牌军工企业秦川汽 ...

Core Insights - Meiao Dental Group has opened a 6,000 square meter flagship clinic in Suzhou, marking a significant expansion and signaling a shift towards value-based competition in the dental healthcare market [1][2] Expansion and Business Strategy - While 90% of competitors are opting for strategic contraction, Meiao Dental's substantial investment in a large flagship store is a calculated move to meet the growing demand for high-quality dental care and long-term health management [2] - The current industry downturn provides Meiao Dental with a cost advantage, allowing for controlled investments and the implementation of long-term strategies [2] - The flagship center serves as a response to industry challenges, focusing on creating sustainable health value for users [2] Value Competition and User Relationships - Meiao Dental is moving away from price wars and is focusing on professional capabilities, service depth, and lifetime user value as the core of its "value competition" strategy [3] - The company aims to transform from a single transaction model to a "lifetime user relationship" model, extending services to cover the entire lifecycle of dental care [3] - The Suzhou flagship store is a testing ground for this new model, which, if successful, will be rolled out to 15 other cities, enhancing the overall value proposition [3] Strategic Layout and Ecosystem Development - From 2012 to 2025, Meiao Dental aims to become a leading chain brand in the dental industry across first, second, and third-tier cities, with the Suzhou flagship store marking the beginning of its third strategic upgrade [4] - The company is developing a multi-layered service network centered around the flagship store, integrating community health management with professional medical resources [4] - Meiao Dental's value competition strategy is empowering numerous upstream and downstream partners, creating a "value community" focused on lifelong dental health [4] Long-term Vision - Meiao Dental emphasizes the importance of leading with value to ensure long-term sustainability in the dental healthcare sector, shifting the focus from price competition to comprehensive value competition based on medical capability, service experience, and brand trust [5] - The company is committed to enhancing user experience and providing professional medical services, positioning itself as a lifelong health partner for users [5]

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is facing a "rare earth crisis" due to a significant drop in rare earth imports from Myanmar, which has led to supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions [1][9]. Group 1: Supply Chain Vulnerability - In the first nine months of 2024, China imported 31,000 tons of rare earth oxides from Myanmar, accounting for 74.9% of its total imports, highlighting the dependency on Myanmar for critical rare earth elements [3]. - The domestic production of medium and heavy rare earths in China is severely limited, with a quota of only 19,200 tons in 2024, while imports from Myanmar exceed domestic capacity by 1.6 times, fulfilling 56% of China's heavy rare earth demand [3]. - The sudden control of mining areas by the Kachin Independence Army in October 2024 led to a halt in operations, causing a surge in rare earth prices and raising concerns about supply shortages for companies heavily reliant on these imports [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Market Reactions - Following the disruption in supply, the stock prices of northern rare earth companies rose by 11.58% in one week, and the price of dysprosium oxide surged by 8% in the same period [4]. - A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar in April 2025 further exacerbated the situation, with estimated export volumes dropping by 30% to 50%, and dysprosium prices nearing 2 million yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Corporate Responses and Adaptations - Chinese companies are implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis, such as reducing dysprosium usage in magnets by 30% and increasing recycling rates of rare earth materials from waste [6]. - The North Rare Earth Company is ramping up production at its Baiyun Obo mine, benefiting from exclusive mining rights amid rising prices [6]. - Companies are also exploring overseas sourcing options, including projects in the U.S. and Malaysia, although these alternatives cannot fully replace the heavy rare earths sourced from Myanmar [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Environmental Considerations - The crisis has highlighted the complex interplay between technology competition, geopolitical dynamics, and environmental responsibilities, with the U.S. attempting to leverage environmental reports to pressure Myanmar into halting exports to China [9]. - China's investment of 38 billion yuan in rare earth pollution control has become a strategic tool, promoting sustainable mining practices in Myanmar and potentially reshaping the operational landscape to align with Chinese standards [8].

文章指出，短期来看，债券承销低价竞争或许能为机构带来一定的市场份额。但长期来看，当承销费率 跌破成本线，专业服务的"缩水效应"会沿着债券生命周期传导，造成一系列"连锁危害"。要打破债券承 销低价困局，还需要监管、发行方等多方协同，"对症下药"。当市场竞争的焦点从"谁报价更低"转 向"谁创造更多价值"时，金融中介才能真正跳出费率"围城"，重建以质量与合规为核心的竞争格局，让 债券承销服务回归本源，从源头上推动债券市场长期健康发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to report a net loss for the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the same period last year [2][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 24.00 billion and 28.00 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a reduction in losses of 24.43 billion to 28.43 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The expected net loss, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 32.00 billion and 36.00 billion yuan, with a reduction in losses of 16.77 billion to 20.77 billion yuan year-on-year [2][5]. - The performance forecast covers the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 52.43 billion yuan and a net loss of 52.77 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items [7]. - The earnings per share for the previous year were -0.69 yuan [8]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Change - The company has increased its investment in customer-centric products and services, leading to growth in component sales. However, the competitive environment in the photovoltaic industry, where major product prices have fallen below cost, has resulted in continued losses despite increased sales [8]. - The company has improved internal operational management, leading to a significant reduction in unit costs, selling expenses, management expenses, and asset impairment losses, resulting in a substantial year-on-year reduction in losses [8]. - The HPBC 2.0 component product has been gradually introduced to the market, gaining rapid market acceptance due to its high conversion efficiency, aesthetic appeal, and safety features, resulting in increased order volume and shipment [8].

Group 1: Current Situation and Challenges - The profit margins for bubble tea shops have sharply decreased, with some stores reporting a net profit of only 400 yuan per day after expenses, despite receiving up to 1,600 orders in a single day [1][2] - The burden of platform subsidies is disproportionately placed on merchants, who bear 60%-70% of the costs, leading to unsustainable pricing models [1] - Operational pressures have increased significantly, with some stores needing to hire additional staff to handle a tenfold increase in orders, resulting in delays and errors [2] Group 2: Impact of the Delivery Price War - The competitive pricing environment has led to a chaotic pricing system, with consumers developing a mindset that discourages spending over 5 yuan for bubble tea or 10 yuan for meals [3] - There is a risk of quality degradation as some merchants reduce ingredient quality to cut costs, which can lead to negative reviews and a loss of consumer trust [4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Industry Reflection - Leading brands are adapting by leveraging private traffic and offering differentiated products to withstand the competitive pressure [5] - Smaller stores are encouraged to implement dynamic order acceptance systems to manage order volumes better and may focus more on dine-in customers to reduce reliance on delivery [6] Group 4: Platform and Regulatory Responsibilities - Regulatory bodies have engaged with platforms to halt "involutionary competition," setting limits on subsidies and addressing issues like mandatory participation in promotional activities [7] - Experts suggest that platforms should shift towards efficiency competition, such as optimizing delivery algorithms and enhancing cold chain logistics, rather than continuing price wars [8] Group 5: Short-term Gains vs. Long-term Risks - Consumers are benefiting from low prices but may develop distorted consumption habits that could lead to demand depletion [9] - Delivery personnel are experiencing increased earnings but face health risks due to overwork, which could lead to accidents [9] - While platforms are seeing record order volumes, they are also facing significant losses, creating a potentially unsustainable cycle [9] Group 6: Consumer Behavior and Industry Sustainability - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "low-price traps" and to understand the challenges faced by merchants, which may help reduce malicious refund behaviors [11] - The current subsidy model is characterized as a zero-sum game driven by capital, with a need for collaboration among platforms, merchants, and consumers to avoid a cycle of low prices, low quality, and customer attrition [11]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid advancement of China's biotechnology sector is comparable to its breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies now challenging Western dominance in innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Growth in Drug Development - In the past year, over 1250 new drugs entered the research and development phase in China, significantly surpassing the EU and nearing the US's 1440 new drugs [1]. - China's contribution to global innovative drug development has increased from 160 compounds in 2015 to nearly equal levels with the US, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The number of innovative drugs entering the R&D pipeline in China is expected to surpass that of the US in the coming years [2]. Group 2: Quality of Innovation - Chinese biotech innovation quality has improved, gaining recognition from global regulatory bodies like the FDA and EMA, which are now prioritizing the review of Chinese drugs [5]. - As of 2024, China has slightly outpaced the EU in obtaining fast-track review qualifications for new drugs, enhancing its competitive edge [5]. - A notable example of innovation is a cell therapy developed by Legend Biotech, which has received multiple fast-track designations and is considered superior to a similar US therapy [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Acquisitions - Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly acquiring Chinese biotech firms, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape towards China [6][9]. - Akeso's new cancer drug has shown higher efficacy than Merck's Keytruda, attracting significant global attention and leading to record acquisition deals [9]. - The frequency and value of transactions involving Chinese drug candidates are rising, reflecting confidence in their international competitiveness [9]. Group 4: Cost and Efficiency Advantages - Chinese biotech companies can conduct research at lower costs and faster speeds across all R&D stages, aided by a large patient base and centralized hospital networks [11]. - The efficiency of Chinese doctors in patient recruitment for clinical trials is notably higher, taking only half the time compared to their US counterparts [11]. - Since 2021, China has become the preferred location for clinical trials, initiating the highest number of new studies globally [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Geopolitical Context - The rapid development of China's biotech ecosystem raises concerns among US policymakers about losing leadership in a critical industry [14][15]. - The US government is responding by tightening controls on scientific equipment exports and promoting domestic biotech growth [15]. - Despite geopolitical tensions, Chinese companies are focused on expanding into developed Western markets to benefit global patients [15].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -82 million yuan and -70 million yuan, indicating a loss [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -85 million yuan and -75 million yuan [1] - The preliminary financial data is subject to change and will be finalized in the official half-year report [3] Group 2 - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was -15.49 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -17.39 million yuan [2] - The company faced a decline in revenue due to oversupply in the photovoltaic industry and intensified competition, leading to a drop in prices for photovoltaic film products and a decrease in sales of photovoltaic backsheet products [2] - Despite challenges in the photovoltaic business, the company's emerging business segments, including lithium battery and new energy vehicle materials, showed improvement in revenue and gross margin [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of a 35 billion yuan secondary capital bond has highlighted the issue of extremely low underwriting fees in the bond underwriting market, prompting the China Interbank Market Dealers Association to initiate a self-regulatory investigation into the matter [1] Group 1: Underwriting Fee Issues - The total underwriting service fee for the six selected underwriters was only 63,448 yuan, averaging around 10,000 yuan per institution, indicating a "floor price" for bond underwriting [1] - The association's announcement on July 11 emphasized that if any parties violate self-regulatory rules during business operations, they will face self-regulatory actions [1] Group 2: Causes of Low Price Competition - Three main reasons for the low-price competition in bond underwriting are identified: 1. Institutions are focusing on "price for volume," where larger institutions dominate the market and engage in low-fee bidding to increase their underwriting scale and market ranking [2] 2. The evaluation criteria for bidding often prioritize price over service quality and risk management, encouraging underwriters to sacrifice reasonable profit margins [2] 3. Many institutions have a singular business structure, making bond underwriting a critical cash flow business, leading them to participate in low-margin bidding to maintain market share [2] Group 3: Long-term Consequences - While low-price competition may provide short-term market share, it risks long-term damage to the underwriting process, including: 1. Insufficient resource allocation for due diligence and risk assessment, potentially leading to increased bond defaults and harming investor interests [3] 2. The survival of compliant institutions is threatened, while aggressive bidders may resort to gray market practices, undermining healthy competition [3] 3. The core value of underwriters in facilitating effective capital allocation diminishes, as the process becomes a mere "channel" service [3] 4. A focus on price wars hampers innovation in product development, affecting the industry's ability to lead in areas like green bonds and ESG derivatives [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To break the low-price competition cycle, a collaborative approach involving regulators and issuers is necessary, shifting the market focus from "who bids lower" to "who creates more value" [4] - This shift would help financial intermediaries escape the fee-centric mindset and rebuild a competitive landscape centered on quality and compliance, promoting the long-term health of the bond market [4]