智通财经APP获悉，尽管1月份美国非农就业数据比市场预期强劲得多，导致金融市场对于美联储2026 年降息预期从3次降至2次降息，但是华尔街对冲基金投资巨鳄、绿光资本创始人大卫·艾因霍恩(David Einhorn)预测，美联储今年将把基准利率下调"远远多于两次"，并称市场正在严重低估未来货币政策宽 松步伐。 这位华尔街最顶级对冲基金经理认为，押注降息次数将超过当前市场预期，是"眼下最好的交易逻辑之 一"。在接受媒体采访时，艾因霍恩表示，美联储"必然将会降息，并且比市场定价的次数要多得多"。 当被追问他预计美联储将会有多少次降息时，艾因霍恩只是简单回应："正如你们期待的那样，会有很 多次。" 根据CME"美联储观察工具"显示的最新数据，利率期货交易员们目前认为美联储将分别在6月和9月累 计进行降息2次。 这位对冲基金投资经理指出，来自特朗普政府的政治层面的压力以及即将到来的美联储领导层更迭，是 推动美联储激进降息周期的关键催化剂。 艾因霍恩提到，特朗普"相信美国应该拥有全球最低的利率"，并已选择了一位与这一激进降息愿景一致 的新任美联储主席。他强调相信特朗普提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh ...

格隆汇2月12日｜Clearbridge Investments的Jeff Schulze在报告中指出，美国一月劳动力市场数据对风险 资产构成利好，因为数据显示就业基础稳固，可进一步推动消费增长。他表示，投资者已将美联储降息 的预期从六月推迟到七月，因为数据表明，当前劳动力市场无需额外货币宽松措施即可维持增长。尽管 利率上行带来压力，但改善的经济增长前景已完全抵消这一影响。Schulze同时提醒，虽然报告整体偏 正面，但需注意一月数据往往受季节性因素影响较大，可能夸大当月就业报告的表现。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

格隆汇2月12日｜Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据 表现强劲，"应当能消除市场对3月降息的押注。"不过，Monex目前仍预计美联储将在6月恢复降息。 Rees表示："不过就目前而言，市场仍在消化这一稳健的就业数据，降息预期自然地随之降低了。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录 得4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，通胀仍 高于目标水平，应维持"略具限制性"利率立场。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。美国总统特 朗普发文称赞1月非农强劲表现，再度呼吁大幅降息，称美国应享有全球最低利率。 美国1月非农数据远超预期，最直接且确定的影响是：交易员将美联储首次降息的押注从6月推迟至7 月，并引发美债收益率跳升、美元走强、黄金短线跳水。这组数据打破了市场对"劳动力市场即将崩 溃"的论调，但并未逆转全年的降息预期，只是将时间窗口整体后移。 具体到各个金融市场的传导路径和深层矛盾，可以从以下几个维度拆解： 一、 美联储政策路径：降息"延迟"而非"消失" 值得注意的是政策层内部的罕见分歧：虽然市场正在撤回降息押注，但白宫（特朗普及其经济顾问哈塞 特）反而在数据发布后加大了"喊话降息"的力度，称"美联储仍有充足降息空间"、"美国应享有全球最 预期重置：数据发布前，市场仍在博弈6月降息；发布后，CME联邦基金期货显示6月按兵不动的 概率升至近4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian IT sector has experienced a significant decline of over 4% due to concerns over AI disruptions and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nifty 50 index fell by 0.4% to 25,860.45 points, ending a four-day streak of gains [1] - The Nifty IT index dropped by 4.6%, reaching its lowest level since April 17, with a year-to-date decline of 11% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market concerns are primarily driven by the potential disruption caused by AI technologies [1] - The delay in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has negatively impacted investor sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 70,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure revised down to 48,000 from 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4% and down from the previous 4.4%[2] - Private sector employment increased by 172,000 jobs, with the production sector adding 36,000 jobs and the service sector contributing 136,000 jobs[2] Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month, raising concerns about inflation driven by wage growth[2] - The significant increase in wages, particularly in cyclical industries like transportation and finance, is attributed to labor shortages caused by adverse weather conditions[2] Sector-Specific Insights - The construction sector saw a rebound with 33,000 new jobs, primarily due to preemptive hiring, although wage growth in this sector slowed from 0.4% to 0.2%[2] - The healthcare and education sectors added 137,000 jobs, largely influenced by the extension of the Affordable Care Act, while financial activities and leisure sectors faced declines[2] Government Employment Trends - Government employment decreased by 42,000 jobs, with federal jobs down by 34,000 and state jobs down by 18,000, likely due to a temporary government shutdown affecting payroll reporting[2] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the employment data release, markets expect the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until July, indicating a tightening labor market[2] - The U.S. economy is projected to continue its recovery, but inflation risks remain, particularly due to wage pressures in the labor market[3]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, with a labor force participation rate increase to 62.5%[14] - Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[17] Annual Revision - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 862,000 jobs, close to the previous estimate of 911,000[22] - The total annual job additions for 2025 were revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly addition of approximately 15,000 jobs[23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected employment data has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a less than 6% probability of a rate cut in March[28] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts before June, with potential cuts expected in June and September[28] Risks - Inflation exceeding expectations could limit the space for rate cuts, and political pressures may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[29]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in non-farm employment in January, with 130,000 new jobs added, which exceeded market expectations and led to a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [1] - Following the employment data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts were adjusted, with traders pushing back the anticipated first rate cut from June to July [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March rose to 94%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut decreased to around 6% [1] Group 2 - Different institutions have varying assessments regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path, with Huatai Securities maintaining a judgment that the Fed will pause rate cuts before June, expecting 1-2 cuts thereafter [2] - TD Securities has also pushed back its first rate cut expectation from March to June, still forecasting a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the year, to be implemented in three phases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in non-farm employment in January, with an increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest growth since January 2025 [2] - The private sector added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000, indicating a stabilization in the job market following signals from Powell during the January meeting [2] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the job growth, adding 137,000 jobs, while other sectors like retail and leisure showed fluctuations but remained lower than in the first half of 2025 [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, benefiting from improved job demand, with stable overall unemployment numbers [6] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, with notable rebounds in the participation rates of younger age groups [6] - Job vacancies in December fell to 6.542 million, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the vacancy rate dropping below 4% for the first time since the pandemic [8] Group 3 - Average hourly earnings in January increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 3.7% [10] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the retail and financial sectors, while the lowest was in business services and healthcare [13] - Real wage growth showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% in December, indicating potential support for consumer recovery [16] Group 4 - Following the release of strong non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March dropped significantly, with probabilities for a cut in June also declining [19] - Asset prices reacted positively, with major U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, while precious metals experienced a pullback from previous highs [19]