5月21日，和讯投顾投机大拿在今日市场分析中指出，国内再次降息，然而市场涨幅并不尽如人意，究 竟是投资者对降息推动A股上涨的预期过高，还是降息力度本身不足呢？投机大拿认为，回顾过去不难 发现利率已经从几年前的3%—4%降至如今的长期存款利率1.3%，然而A股指数仍然在3000点徘徊。如 果单纯认为降息一定会对A股形成利好，那么A股也不会在市场多年持续降息的背景下岿然不动了。 因此，投机大拿指出，很多投资者总是觉得踏不准节奏，其实是因为他们没有看懂政策背后的逻辑。有 时候，政策已经明确了方向，但许多投资者仍然看不到机会，不敢轻易下手。而当他们真正看到机会 时，市场已经完成了转换，当前股息和利息的差距已经非常明显。一方面，证监会鼓励上市公司分红； 另一方面，又为上市公司提供贷款增持自家股票的条件，只要上市公司具备盈利能力和条件，能够达到 分红要求的，实际上是在"白捡"利润。 在这种情况下，即使投资者自己不主动将存款流入股市，也会有其他资金代为流入。因此，从这个角度 来看，如果未来货币政策进一步宽松，这种入市的意愿一定会逐步上升。只要看懂了这个逻辑，未来市 场的方向就会变得清晰明朗，这也是投机大拿强调未来市场大概率 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices surged again, breaking the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time since May 9, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a negative GDP growth in the US, which increased safe-haven demand [1] - Since May 19, spot gold has been on the rise, following a significant correction after reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, with a notable drop of 2.23% on May 14 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a strong performance in gold and jewelry consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% in April for gold and jewelry, and a 38.6% increase in the average closing price of AU9999 gold [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures believes that the current adjustment in gold prices is a short-term trend, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact, influenced by a combination of rising inflation and economic downturn in the US [2] - According to Founder Securities, while gold prices are currently high, the easing of trade tensions may lead to profit-taking by investors and a slowdown in central bank purchases, potentially causing a short-term price correction [2] - Citigroup has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3,500 to $3,150, indicating a 10% decrease, and predicts that gold prices will oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300 in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy, enhance financing efficiency, and ensure sustainable economic recovery amid external uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a comprehensive monetary policy package to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [1]. - The meeting called for maintaining a reasonable growth in total financial volume while ensuring effective financing for the real economy [1]. Group 2: Policy Tools Optimization - The total quota of two financial tools has been merged to 800 billion, improving convenience and flexibility [5]. - The range of participating institutions for swap facilities has been expanded from 20 to 40, and the collateral scope now includes Hong Kong stocks and restricted shares [5]. - The maximum loan term for repurchase and refinancing has been extended from 1 year to 3 years [5]. Group 3: Financial System Resilience - Despite significant external shocks, the domestic financial system remains robust, demonstrating strong resilience in the financial market [6]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate experienced slight depreciation before recovering to 7.2, with cross-border capital flows remaining relatively balanced [6]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Research indicates that further monetary policy easing is likely, with potential for rate cuts in the second quarter [12]. - Structural tools may be expanded to support sectors like technological innovation and green finance [13]. - The real estate financial policy is expected to be further optimized, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and relaxed lending policies in certain cities [14]. - Challenges remain for small and micro enterprises regarding financing difficulties, suggesting a need for improved credit loan ratios and guarantee mechanisms [15].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has initiated a comprehensive monetary easing cycle by lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and implementing a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the economy amid internal and external pressures [1][7]. Policy Measures - The recent interest rate cuts are part of a broader policy package that includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy rates, aimed at releasing long-term liquidity and reducing financing costs [1][2]. - The LPR for 1-year and over 5-year terms has been reduced by 10 basis points to 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, marking a significant step in the monetary policy easing [1][2]. Impact on Lending - The combination of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions is expected to lower corporate loan rates by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, benefiting small and micro enterprises significantly [2]. - For example, a 10 million yuan loan could save 10,000 yuan in interest annually, while a 50 million yuan manufacturing loan could save over 250,000 yuan in interest over five years [2]. Real Estate Market Effects - The reduction in the 5-year LPR to 3.5% has led to a decrease in mortgage rates across various cities, with Beijing's first home loan rate dropping from 3.15% to 3.05% [3]. - Existing mortgage holders will see their rates adjust automatically, resulting in significant savings on monthly payments and total repayment amounts [3]. Savings Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks have lowered deposit rates in response to the LPR adjustments, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [4]. - This shift aims to encourage consumers to move funds from savings to consumption or investment, thereby stimulating domestic demand [4]. Capital Market Reactions - Following the LPR announcement, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.8%, indicating a positive market response to the policy changes, particularly in the banking and real estate sectors [5]. - The lowered financing costs are expected to enhance market confidence and encourage capital flow from bond and wealth management markets to the stock market [5]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the People's Bank of China has adjusted its monetary policy in response to global economic conditions, and the current environment allows for further easing measures [6]. - Analysts predict that the central bank may continue to implement rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions in the coming months, potentially leading to increased credit and social financing [6][7].

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 股指期货全景日报 2025/5/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2506） | 3865.4 | +24.2↑ IF次主力合约（2509） | 3795.0 | +23.4↑ | | | IH主力合约（2506） IC主力合约（2506） | 2699.4 5650.8 | +12.0↑ IH次 ...

新华财经北京5月20日电（崔凯）在通胀持续回落、消费疲软以及全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，澳 洲联储（RBA）宣布将现金利率目标下调25个基点至3.85%。这是自2023年以来澳洲利率首次跌破4%， 进入"3"字头区间，标志着货币政策进一步转向宽松。 此次降息符合市场普遍预期。此前，货币市场和多数经济学家已预测到这一决定，主要基于以下几点： 消费者支出低迷、经济增长前景黯淡以及国际关税政策带来的不确定性上升。 通胀稳定，但增长与就业承压 澳洲联储在声明中指出，尽管目前通胀率已从2022年的峰值显著下降，并预计在未来三年内维持在 2.6%的水平，但经济增长面临压力。 全球风险加剧，澳洲政策路径存变数 澳洲联储特别指出，全球经济在过去三个月内不确定性大幅上升，金融市场波动剧烈。尽管近期有关关 税问题的声明推动金融市场价格反弹，但最终政策走向及其他国家的应对措施仍存在高度不确定性。 地缘政治紧张局势也可能进一步拖累全球经济活动。若家庭和企业因前景不明而推迟支出，澳大利亚的 增长、就业和通胀前景将进一步疲软。 不过，联储也表示，如果贸易紧张局势迅速缓解，全球经济增长可能提速，澳洲的降息幅度或将相应减 少。 根据预测： ...

以北京地区为例，当前北京地区银行执行的是首套房贷商贷利率为LPR减45个基点，结合最新LPR报价 来看，即3.05%；购买二套住房位于五环内的，商贷利率下限为LPR减5个基点，即3.45%；购买二套住 房位于五环外的，商贷利率下限为LPR减25个基点，即3.25%。 降息落地！事关数亿人的房贷成本，又将迎来下调。 5月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降10个基点，其 中，1年期LPR降至3%，5年期以上LPR降至3.5%。 值得一提的是，这是LPR年内首降。其中，5年期LPR下调也关乎所有购房者的月供，随着下调，北京 首套房贷利率再度创下最低纪录。据北京商报记者测算，在北京地区，对于100万元贷款本金、30年 期、等额本息的个人按揭贷款而言，政策前后对比，其中月供额减少54元，总还款额（本金+利息）减 少1.96万元，具体到单月上，月供还款金额减少54元。 百万房贷立省近2万元 一如市场预期，在央行重磅预告后，LPR如期按下"下调键"。而其中引发全民关注的是，此次5年期 LPR的下调也将为购房者们省下一笔不小的支出。 值得一提的是，这也是自LPR捆绑房贷利率以来， ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, with the 1-year LPR set at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, following a previous cut in October 2024 [2] - The reduction in LPR is part of a broader financial policy aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, indicating a further easing of monetary and credit policies, which will lower borrowing costs for medium to long-term funds [2] - The recent LPR cut is expected to positively impact housing loan costs, thereby stimulating housing consumption demand [2] Group 2 - In April, the average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans was approximately 3.1%, and the recent LPR reduction is projected to decrease monthly payments by 54 yuan and total repayment amounts by 19,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [3] - Despite the positive effects of the LPR cut, the current demand for improved housing is insufficient to support the overall market, necessitating further measures to stimulate first-time and second-hand housing demand [3] - The analysis suggests that while interest rate cuts are beneficial, a comprehensive policy framework that includes fiscal support for various sectors is essential to restore the fundamentals of the real estate market and stabilize it [3]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the "loan off-season" and emphasizes the observation of the effects of monetary easing, with May to June being a critical period for assessing the impact of incremental policies [1][6][7] - Financial data from April shows an increase in social financing scale, with new social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan, and a recovery in the growth rate of social financing stock to 8.7% [6][7] - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-interest environment [6][7] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current state of China's sci-tech bond market, noting that it is in its early development stage compared to overseas markets, characterized by a smaller market size, shorter issuance periods, and higher ratings [2][8] - It forecasts that as the sci-tech bond market matures, there will be rapid growth in market size and a diversification of issuance entities, particularly from high-tech industries, which will better match the long R&D cycles of innovative enterprises [2][11] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with excavator sales in April increasing by 18% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend [3][12] - The report notes that domestic excavator sales reached 49,109 units in the first four months of 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by factors such as the replacement of aging equipment and improved funding conditions [12][13] - It recommends several companies in the engineering machinery sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [3][12] Company Recommendations - The report highlights Beike-W (02423.HK) as a leading player in the domestic real estate brokerage industry, with Q1 2025 revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a 42.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [4][14] - The company is projected to see continued growth in its second-hand housing business, driven by an increase in transaction volume and market coverage [4][15] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Beike-W for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.62 billion, and 13.62 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each market [5][8][11]. - Overall, the report suggests a cautious approach in the current market environment, considering factors such as trade tensions, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics [7][10][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.10%, 0.05%, 0.06%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operations**: On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2.95 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend. It is recommended to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.66%, 1.01%, 0.25%, and 0.15% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Despite concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have room for hedging. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic. Considering the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 751.8 with a 1.62% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,101 with a 1.16% increase [11]. - **Outlook**: Global trade and financial environment is complex. Tariffs increase the risk of global recession, and central banks may adopt loose monetary policies. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12][13]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the market is in a weak oscillation. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and the decline in imports and inventory is favorable. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand is weak. The market may hit new lows. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron showed different trends. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and high inventory pressures the market. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low inventory levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [19][20][21]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs put pressure on oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose and then fell. The recovery of global trade demand and inventory decline support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26][27]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. Brazilian soybean harvest is bumper, and domestic supply is expected to be loose. For soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell. Exports increased, and domestic inventory is low. Consider the opportunity to expand the soybean - palm oil price spread [58][59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Chinese imports and inventory vary. Consider buying rapeseed meal after a pull - back [60]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is favorable, but the fundamentals are weak. Wait for a pull - back to buy [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices fell slightly. Brazilian production is currently low but expected to increase. Domestic inventory is low, and imports are limited. It is expected to oscillate within a range [64][65][66]. - **Apples**: Apple futures rose and then fell. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Consider buying after a pull - back [67][68][69]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices showed a narrow - range adjustment. Group - farm sales may increase, and consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase in May. Consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. Domestic supply pressure exists in the short term, but consumption is recovering. It is recommended to wait and see [75][76][77]. - **Logs**: Log futures fell. Import volume decreased, and prices were weak. The market has no obvious driving force [78][79].