Core Viewpoint - The domestic innovative drug sector has shifted from a previous upward trend to a phase of volatility, with market participants showing a tendency to buy more as prices drop, indicating a potential long-term investment interest despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From June 16 to June 25, medical-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of over 6.4 billion yuan, with several leading innovative drug ETFs attracting more than 1.5 billion yuan [1]. - Despite a significant drop of 8.51% in the Hong Kong innovative drug index from June 16 to June 20, funds continued to flow into innovative drug ETFs, with net inflows of 8.89 billion yuan and 7.10 billion yuan for specific ETFs during that period [2]. - The innovative drug sector experienced a brief recovery at the beginning of the week, with continued strong inflows into ETFs, totaling over 6.4 billion yuan since June 16 [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - On June 26, the innovative drug sector faced another decline, influenced by the announcement from Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals regarding a licensing deal with Vor Bio, which raised concerns about the actual value of business development (BD) deals compared to market expectations [3]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals will receive 125 million USD in cash and warrants, with potential milestone payments reaching up to 4.105 billion USD, but the initial payment was perceived as low, leading to market skepticism [3]. - Following the announcement, Rongchang's A-shares fell over 18% and H-shares dropped over 11%, impacting several ETFs heavily invested in the stock [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the innovative drug sector's high volatility necessitates a longer-term investment perspective, as short-term trading often fails to yield satisfactory returns [5]. - Companies with higher confidence, better competitive positioning, and more complete business logic are viewed as more favorable investment targets in the innovative drug space [5]. - The innovative drug sector's underlying logic for recent growth includes asset revaluation and the influx of multinational corporations (MNCs) into China for business development opportunities [4].

一则利好消息彻底引爆。 26日晚间，美股三大指数震荡走强，微型自动驾驶技术公司Cyngn股价一度暴涨超539%，多次触及熔断。消息 面上，该公司被英伟达的博客文章提及，其被列为使用英伟达Isaac平台开发工业应用自动解决方案的创新企 业之一。另外，该公司在 Automatica 2025 机器人与自动化展会上宣布与英伟达合作。 与此同时，一系列宏观数据也持续搅动美股市场。据美国劳工部最新发布的数据，6月14日当周，美国续请失 业救济人数升至197.4万人，高于市场预期，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。意味着，美国就业市场正在放 缓。 随着美股三大指数不断逼近历史最高点，部分投资者出现了担心错过上涨行情的情绪。高盛警告称，投资者对 质量较低的股票尤其应该谨慎对待，因为这些股票的股价上涨是由被迫回补头寸的卖空者推动的，而不是由积 极的企业基本面推动的。 暴涨、熔断 北京时间6月26日晚间，美股三大指数集体走高，截至22:40，道指涨0.66%，纳指涨0.56%，标普500指数涨 0.56%，逼近历史新高。 美股大型科技股多数走强，英伟达涨超1.2%，盘中再度创出历史新高；Meta、博通涨超1%，微软、亚马逊、 ...

美联储巴尔金：在不确定性中企业仍处于观望状态。 ...

美联储巴尔金：在不确定性中，美联储有时间来收集数据。 ...

交易商表示，对1-2周到期的美元看跌期权的需求特别强劲。对美元看跌期权的需求表明，交易员将美 元下行视为需要对冲的关键风险。 日元 随着美元的急剧贬值，市场避险情绪上升，增加了日元等避险货币的吸引力，日元表现强劲。 欧洲交易时段，美元兑日元汇率跌至144.00下方。在美国总统特朗普宣布将提名鲍威尔的继任者后，美 元兑日元进一步下跌超过0.8%，接近143.75。 日本政府计划将2025年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测从之前的1.2%下调至1%以下，主要原因是美 国关税政策带来的全球贸易风险增加，这对日本经济构成了挑战。 澳元 新华财经北京6月26日电欧洲交易时段，美元指数因围绕美联储未来决策可信度的不确定性而受到打 击，创下约97.00的三年新低。美元指数亦跌破97.000，达到2022年2月以来的最低水平。 特朗普对鲍威尔的批评加剧了市场的担忧，认为新的美联储主席可能会优先考虑总统的经济议程而非传 统的双重使命（即维持物价稳定和促进充分就业）。 全球风险资产则延续强势，MSCI全球股指年内涨幅逼近8%，欧元兑美元升至1.173的三年高位，瑞郎 触及十年高点。 市场情绪受三重因素驱动：美联储提前换帅传闻强化 ...

实时黄金订单流分析 黄金多空深度博弈，地缘担忧和政策不确定性或将加剧波动！阿汤哥、顺姐正在用订单流分析资金动 向！点击观看 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's unexpected shift towards "early rate cuts" after a hawkish signal just six days prior indicates potential changes in monetary policy direction[2] - The number of Fed members opposing rate cuts increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more hawkish stance in the latest dot plot[4] - Powell's comments suggest that "early" may refer to a possible rate cut in September, with a focus on upcoming economic data[6] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Trump's pressure on the Fed, claiming that rate cuts could save $800 billion in interest costs, raises concerns about the Fed's credibility[4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation complicates the Fed's decision-making process[13] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions in the Middle East, adds further uncertainty to inflation forecasts and financial stability[14] Group 3: Implications for China - The Fed's policy shift is expected to have limited direct impact on China, as the PBOC's rate decisions depend more on internal financial stability[18] - The RMB has shown increased elasticity, allowing for greater autonomy in monetary policy despite external influences[18] - China's focus remains on optimizing credit structure and managing systemic financial risks, rather than simply following the Fed's lead[18]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.26） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78300-79300 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路、卖出深虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美联储多数官员认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。 2、供给方面，虽然泰国跃居成我国占比最高的废铜进口来源国，但由于来源 于美国的废铜进口量减少，5 月废铜进口总量环比下滑 9.55%，同比下降 6.63%。预 计 6 月废铜进口量将进一步下滑，而来自于美国的废铜进口占比将跌至 5%之下。现 货市场方面，广东地区集中到货，持货商降价出货，市场上货源增加。华北市场现 货供应正常。 3、需求方面，5 月份精铜杆线出口总量环比增长 17.57%，同比增长 34%，但 进入 6 月，终端需求明显走弱，多数企业出口量有一定下滑。5 月全国电源工程投 资累计完成额为 2578 亿元，累计同比增长 0.4%。据 SMM 调研了解，现时不少再生 铜杆企业反映由于精废价差、精废杆价差位于均衡线附近，叠加终端传统淡季，导 致了再生铜杆企业订单不足，再生铜杆企业受高原料价格导致成品销售亏损、政策 ...

三菱日联：地缘政治风险和需求不确定性缓解或抑制油价上涨 金十数据6月26日讯，受美国需求强劲的迹象以及交易员密切关注美伊核谈判进展的支撑，油价欧洲时 段早盘小幅走高。三菱日联分析师Soojin Kim表示："由于库存紧张和季节性需求，短期内价格支撑可 能会持续，不过地缘政治风险和需求不确定性的缓解可能会抑制进一步上涨。"然而，由于市场基本面 仍普遍看跌，基准油价本月大幅下跌。由于贸易不确定性持续，全球需求前景正在减弱，而随着欧佩克 +继续增加产量，供应仍然强劲。 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]