Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent divergence between the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) and the decline of the stock market, particularly in Hong Kong, raising questions about the underlying factors driving these trends [2][4][15]. Group 1: RMB Strength and Stock Market Divergence - The RMB has appreciated by 1.3% against the USD since early October, nearing the 7.0 mark, while the Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 15% from its peak [2][4]. - Historically, a strong RMB correlates positively with stock market performance, as it typically indicates foreign capital inflow and a favorable economic outlook [2][4][6]. - The recent divergence is attributed to different driving factors for the RMB and the stock market, suggesting that the traditional correlation may not apply in the current context [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Context and Analysis - The historical relationship between the RMB and the stock market has predominantly been one of alignment, with notable exceptions occurring only twice in the past: from March to June 2013 and from July 2021 to October 2022 [9][10]. - In both historical instances, the divergence was resolved either by the stock market aligning with the RMB or vice versa, influenced by policy interventions and economic fundamentals [10][12]. - The article emphasizes that the current divergence is rare and highlights the importance of growth and capital inflow as key pricing factors for both the RMB and the stock market [7][14]. Group 3: Current Economic Conditions - The recent RMB appreciation is primarily driven by a record trade surplus of $1.08 trillion and a weakening USD, rather than significant foreign capital inflows into the stock market [15][25]. - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with PMI below the growth threshold and negative growth in fixed asset investment, suggesting that the stock market's decline reflects underlying economic pressures [22][26]. - The article posits that the RMB's strength is more a result of external factors, such as the USD's performance and seasonal capital flows, rather than improvements in domestic economic conditions [25][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the divergence between the RMB and the stock market may persist, as the factors causing this divergence are not expected to change in the short term [28][29]. - The future trajectory of both the RMB and the stock market will depend on the direction of economic fundamentals and whether policy measures can effectively address the current economic challenges [31][36]. - A significant policy response aimed at stimulating domestic demand could potentially realign the RMB and stock market trends, but without such measures, the divergence may continue [36][37].

每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 ｜2025年12月22日 星期一｜ NO.1 我国成功发射通信技术试验卫星二十三号 北京时间2025年12月20日20时30分，我国在文昌航天发射场使用长征五号运载火箭，成功将通信技术试 验卫星二十三号发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道，发射任务获得圆满成功。该卫星主要用于开展多频 段、高速率卫星通信技术验证。此次任务是长征系列运载火箭的第618次飞行。 NO.2 商务部会议强调，要做强国内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环 12月20日，商务部召开会议强调，2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好商务工作责任重大。要做强国 内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环、拓展国际循环，为经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长贡献商务力 量。鼓励支持服务出口，积极发展数字贸易、绿色贸易。稳步推进制度型开放，有序扩大服务领域自主 开放，深化外商投资促进体制机制改革，优化自由贸易试验区布局范围，塑造吸引外资新优势。引导产 业链供应链合理有序跨境布局，完善海外综合服务体系。推动商签更多区域和双边贸易投资协定。 12月20日，年末ETF排位赛如火如荼，A500ETF霸屏成交榜。最新数据显示，全市场A500ETF规模达 ...

Group 1 - China Shenhua announced a merger and acquisition plan exceeding 130 billion yuan, intending to purchase stakes in China Energy Group and Guoyuan Power, along with other equity acquisitions [2][7] - The A-share market is seeing active mergers and acquisitions, with 32 listed companies disclosing restructuring progress this week [2][7] - Former Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB exchange rate against the USD may rise to around 6:1 in the next decade, which could enhance trade balance and economic development [2][7] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt their asset allocation accordingly, with about 19% of industries potentially benefiting from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [2][7] - Shanxi Province has lifted the ban on fireworks, transitioning from a complete ban to scientific restrictions, which may stimulate industry growth and related consumption [3][8] - Seven chief strategists from major brokerages forecast a likely upward trend for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026, driven by technology and overseas expansion [3][8] Group 3 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing positive developments, with Shengxin Lithium Energy signing a framework agreement for lithium salt product supply worth over 20 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [3][8] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project is set to reach an annual capacity of 2.14 million tons, ensuring raw material supply [3][8] - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week, covering tourism, new materials, and optical communication sectors [3][8] Group 4 - Several central banks, including those of Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile, have announced interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices, with silver reaching a historic high of over 67 USD per ounce [4][9][10] - The first L3-level autonomous driving special license plate has been issued to Changan Automobile, marking a shift from technology validation to mass production application [4][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a classic "cross-year-spring" market trend is brewing, with significant signals indicating its commencement [3] - Factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, and investors should adapt their asset allocation accordingly, focusing on industries that may benefit from this trend [1] - The market is expected to see a structural shift with a focus on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and sectors related to domestic consumption [3][4] Group 2 - The investment strategy should consider three key clues: dividend value, layout of prosperous industries, and thematic hotspots [4] - The anticipated spring market in 2026 is expected to be driven by a combination of fundamental cyclical improvements and new technological trends [2] - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and investor sentiment [4][6] Group 3 - The focus on AI and advanced manufacturing is expected to dominate the market, with a potential shift towards value and cyclical styles in the first half of 2026 [2] - The market is likely to experience a "value on stage, growth in action" dynamic, particularly as the Lunar New Year approaches [9] - There is a notable expectation for structural opportunities in sectors like AI, new energy, and controlled nuclear fusion, which are aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][10]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for all departments to align their actions with the central economic work conference's decisions, enhancing responsibility and urgency in implementing economic policies for the upcoming year [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued rules to prevent unreasonable restrictions on pricing behavior by platform operators, ensuring that sellers can set their own prices [2] - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have taken action against 17 accounts involved in spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, highlighting the importance of maintaining market integrity [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and other financial authorities in Fujian have launched a plan to enhance financial support for technology innovation and strategic emerging industries, aiming for a 10% annual growth in loans to technology-related sectors from 2025 to 2027 [4] - Researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University have made significant advancements in optical computing chips, which are crucial for supporting large-scale semantic media generation models [5] - Moore Threads has released a new GPU architecture that supports large-scale intelligent computing clusters, boasting a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [6][7] Group 3 - China Shenhua plans to acquire 100% equity of Guoyuan Power and Inner Mongolia Construction Investment through a combination of A-share issuance and cash payment, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan [8] - The first L3-level autonomous driving license has been issued in Chongqing, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of L3 autonomous driving in China [9] - U.S. stock markets saw a collective rise, with major tech stocks performing well, indicating a positive sentiment in the technology sector [10] Group 4 - Elon Musk praised a performance featuring humanoid robots at a concert, drawing attention to advancements in robotics and AI applications in entertainment [11] - Major brokerages have provided insights into market trends, with a focus on sectors that may benefit from a strengthening yuan and the potential for a "spring rally" in the A-share market [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]

中信证券：如果人民币开始持续升值 推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下 去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因素。然而，部分 行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来 看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过快单边 升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。 行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动（航空、燃气、造纸等行业）、利润率 变化驱动（上游资源品和原材料、内需消费品、服务业相关品种、制造设备等）以及政策变化驱动（免税、地 产开发商、券商、保险等）三条线索。 申万宏源：非主战场的春季躁动 2026年有春季行情，且启动在即。但机构重点关注的主线结构（AI产业链，顺周期）向上空间有限，而非主 战场上（产业和政策主题，博弈高股息，各种超跌反弹），市场可能非常活跃。2025年牛市1.0（科技结构 牛）已处于高位区域，当前处于季度级别的高位震荡阶段，后续还需关注触发 ...

Group 1 - A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively stable while the ChiNext Index is weaker due to a pullback in the technology manufacturing sector [1][11] - The consensus is forming around a potential "rally" in the market as liquidity expectations improve following key overseas events and a positive policy environment from the Central Economic Work Conference [12][13] - The market style is expected to shift towards small-cap and technology growth sectors during the "rally" window from late January to early March 2026, following a period of value-driven performance [12][13] Group 2 - The strong market performance on Wednesday may indicate the start of the 2026 cross-year market trend, supported by significant net subscriptions in stock ETFs [14] - Continued policy support and stable economic growth are anticipated to bolster market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [14] - The trend of high-net-worth individuals moving their deposits into the stock market is likely to continue, driven by lower expected returns from other asset classes [15] Group 3 - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market through broad-based ETFs, signaling positive market sentiment as investors prepare for the "spring rally" [16] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to perform actively as investors increase their positions [16] - The easing of "AI bubble" concerns and the resolution of liquidity uncertainties are providing a recovery opportunity for the market [17] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on three key areas: dividend value, high-growth sectors during the upcoming "rally," and active themes driven by policy and technology [18] - In a strengthening RMB environment, sectors such as aviation, gas, and paper are expected to benefit from cost advantages, while upstream resources and consumer goods may see profit margin improvements [20][21] - The non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance stocks, is showing increased elasticity and may outperform if policy catalysts emerge [21]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the U.S. resident sector is showing signs of increased leverage, but its sustainability is questionable [2][9] - The report indicates that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November exceeded expectations, with an increase of 64,000 jobs, while the structure of job growth is weak, concentrated in education and healthcare services [8] - The report suggests that the Chinese market may undergo a significant style shift during the release of overseas risks, accompanied by a substantial appreciation of the Renminbi [3] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and adjustments in the asset structure of U.S. commercial banks are ongoing [4] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which could signal risks leading to a simultaneous decline in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. stocks [3] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on sectors such as insurance, state-owned enterprises, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3]

Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The State Council of China held a meeting to implement decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need for departments to detail and accelerate the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year [3] - The National People's Congress is set to review drafts related to state-owned asset management, which includes regulations on the management, reporting, and supervision of state-owned assets [4][5] Group 2: Market Regulation - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on accounts spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, highlighting the impact of misinformation on investor decisions [6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is seeking public opinion on the draft of the Asset-Liability Management Measures for insurance companies, which aims to enhance asset-liability management frameworks [7] Group 3: Industry Developments - The "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" have been released to regulate pricing practices on online platforms, ensuring fair competition and protecting consumer rights [9] - The first L3-level autonomous driving license was issued to Changan Automobile, marking a significant milestone in the domestic autonomous driving sector [10] - Moore Threads unveiled a new GPU architecture, "Huagang," which boasts a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [11] Group 4: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index has added companies such as China Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing others like Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [12] - The FTSE China A150 and A200 indices have also undergone adjustments, reflecting changes in the composition of included stocks [12] Group 5: Major Corporate Transactions - China Shenhua announced a significant acquisition involving the purchase of 100% stakes in multiple energy and coal companies, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, making it the largest acquisition in A-share market history [13] Group 6: Upcoming Market Events - Three new stocks are set for subscription this week, with specific details on their issuance prices and codes provided [15] - A total of 53 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to 210.32 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 1,879.88 billion yuan [16][17] Group 7: Investment Strategies - Various securities firms are signaling a potential "cross-year-spring" market rally, with expectations for increased investment activity and a focus on blue-chip indices [19] - The ongoing demand for AI computing power is highlighted, with recommendations to focus on domestic AI infrastructure as it develops [19] - The appreciation of the RMB is noted as a factor for investment strategies, with certain industries expected to benefit from this trend [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign exchange market remains stable, with banks continuing to report a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, indicating resilience in foreign trade and foreign investment [1][5][6] - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB, maintaining a surplus with a narrowing gap [1][2] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, achieving a surplus for seven consecutive months [2][4] Group 2 - In November, banks reported foreign-related income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB, with a cumulative foreign-related income of 511,208 billion RMB and payments of 497,719 billion RMB from January to November [3][4] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached 1.3 trillion USD in November, with a month-on-month increase of 8%, resulting in a surplus of 17.8 billion USD [5][6] - The USD index weakened overall in November, with a decline of 0.29%, while the RMB appreciated against the USD, particularly in late November [6][7][8] Group 3 - The relationship between RMB appreciation and bank settlement and sales creates a positive feedback loop, supporting each other [8] - Experts suggest that the end of the year will see increased settlement activity due to corporate financial settlements, potentially expanding bank customer settlement scales and providing further support for RMB appreciation [9] - The complexity of factors influencing cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rates is highlighted, indicating that monthly variations in bank settlement data should not be directly equated with capital flows or exchange rate changes [9]