Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a total GDP of 66,053.6 billion yuan [3] - The growth rates by sector were: primary industry at 3.7%, secondary industry at 5.3%, and tertiary industry at 5.5% [3] Supply Side Analysis - The agricultural sector's value added increased by 3.7%, with summer grain production reaching 149.74 million tons [3] - Industrial value added rose by 6.4%, with manufacturing growing by 7.0% [3] - Service sector value added increased by 5.5%, with notable growth in information transmission, software, and IT services at 11.1% [3] Demand Side Analysis - The contribution rates of the "three drivers" of economic growth were: final consumption expenditure at 52%, capital formation at 16.8%, and net exports at 31.2% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 24,545.8 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [4] - Fixed asset investment reached 24,865.4 billion yuan, with a 2.8% increase, and manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% [4] Employment and Income - The average per capita disposable income was 21,840 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% year-on-year [5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [6] Innovation and High-Tech Growth - The core industries of the digital economy accounted for approximately 10% of GDP, with high-tech industries growing by 9.5% [7] - Significant growth in production of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots, with increases of 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively [7] Domestic Demand and Economic Resilience - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption being the main driver [8] - Policies have been implemented to strengthen domestic circulation and expand internal demand in response to external challenges [8] Future Outlook - The economic report indicates a resilient and stable outlook for China's economy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining steady progress and implementing new development concepts [8]

Domestic Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on July 16 to discuss strengthening the domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for optimized policy design and collaboration among departments to promote economic stability and growth [9][10][11] - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference convened a meeting on July 18 to analyze the macroeconomic situation for the first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of maintaining employment, enterprises, and market stability amid a complex international environment [11][12] Overseas Policy News - On July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," establishing a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, marking a significant legislative reform in cryptocurrency regulation [2][14] - Data from the U.S. Treasury revealed that in May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings for the third consecutive month [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight increase in mid-July, driven by better-than-expected economic growth in the first half and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [22][23] - The MSCI China A-share index rose by 1.2% in the third week of July, while the Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan [22][23] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net injection of 9.749 billion yuan into the market through open market operations [3][21] - The central bank's policies have shown a positive impact on supporting the real economy, with a notable increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy [3][21] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight rebound, while crude oil prices experienced a minor decline [3][21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the implementation of a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [3][21] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, closing at 98.46 on July 18, while the renminbi faced depreciation pressure, trading at 7.18 [4][20] - A joint announcement from seven departments encouraged foreign investment in domestic reinvestment, aiming to enhance the investment environment [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing in the second half of the year, with a focus on structural adjustments to address uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [4][20]

Market Overview - The market opened high and closed strong, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, closing at 3559.79 and 2296.88 respectively, with increases of 0.72% and 0.87% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7 trillion, an increase of 128.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included construction materials (6.06%), construction decoration (3.79%), and steel (3.44%), while the underperforming sectors were banking (-0.77%) and computer technology (-0.31%) [3][4] - Concept indices showed strong performance in sectors such as civil explosives (8.51%) and cement (6.85%), while sectors like cross-border payment (CIPS) and digital currency faced declines of -0.90% and -0.67% respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend, supported by positive signals from domestic policies and strong mid-year performance reports from companies [6] - Key areas to watch include the upcoming Politburo meeting for policy direction and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which may impact market sentiment [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations and rose, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing nearly 1%, and the North 50 Index rising over 2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.72% at 3559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86% at 11007.49 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.87% at 2296.88 points, and the North 50 Index up 2.38% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 172.74 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The water conservancy and hydropower sector saw significant growth, with engineering machinery, building materials, steel, coal, agriculture, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and oil sectors also rising [1] - Dongguan Securities noted that recent positive signals from policies such as "domestic circulation" and "anti-involution" are boosting confidence in related sectors, supported by increasing trading volumes [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The establishment of the new central enterprise, Yajiang Group, and the commencement of the Yajiang downstream hydropower project are expected to accelerate hydropower development in Tibet, with a planned installed capacity of approximately 60 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - The total investment for the Yajiang downstream hydropower project is over 1 trillion yuan, which is six times the annual total investment in Tibet, significantly impacting infrastructure development and clean energy construction in the western region [2] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to accelerate further due to ongoing policy support, with various provinces offering subsidies for computing power, which is expected to enhance the development of AI applications [3] - The composite copper foil industry is entering a phase of mass production, with leading manufacturers beginning to supply battery manufacturers, indicating a potential growth phase for companies involved in this sector [4] Group 4: Corporate Developments - JD.com has invested in three leading companies in the field of intelligent robotics, including a 600 million yuan investment in Qianxun Intelligent and strategic investments in other robotics firms [7] - The establishment of a high-automation flexible production line for semiconductor KrF photoresist resin by Bayi Shikong is expected to generate over 100 million yuan in revenue once fully operational, with plans for future capacity expansion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the coexistence of advocating frugality and encouraging consumption as a symbiotic relationship aimed at better meeting the people's aspirations for a better life [1][2]. Group 1: Advocacy for Frugality - Frugality has been a traditional virtue in Chinese culture, and the government promotes it as a means to save resources for social welfare [1]. - The government encourages frugality to ensure that saved funds can be redirected towards improving people's livelihoods [1]. Group 2: Encouragement of Consumption - Consumption is highlighted as a crucial engine for China's economic growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [2]. - The government has implemented measures such as consumption vouchers and trade-in programs to stimulate consumer spending and address barriers to consumption [2]. Group 3: Interrelation of Frugality and Consumption - The article argues that advocating frugality and encouraging consumption can lead to better quality goods and services at lower costs for the public, while also contributing to sustainable development [3]. - It stresses the importance of a balanced approach to spending, promoting reasonable consumption while discouraging wasteful and blind spending [3].

Group 1: Retail and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a significant increase, reaching 440823.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, the highest in nearly a decade [10] - In 2024, the retail sales are projected to reach 487894.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.5% compared to the previous year [10] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) has been steadily increasing, with a forecast of 514374 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous year [10] Group 2: Income Growth - The per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 41314 yuan in 2024, an increase of 9125 yuan or 28.35% from 2020 [11] - In the first half of 2025, the per capita disposable income is projected to be 21840 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 5.3% year-on-year [11] Group 3: Policy and Economic Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios as a key task for China's economic work [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to implementing strategies to strengthen domestic circulation and stimulate internal demand [9] Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - The ice and snow industry is rapidly developing, with its market size expected to reach 10053 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant growth from 8900 billion yuan in 2023 [14] - The silver economy is also emerging, with projections indicating that its market size could reach 12.3 trillion yuan by 2028, becoming a vital growth engine for the Chinese economy [14]

Macroeconomic Research - The report highlights the increasing significance of domestic circulation in the economy, with external pressures impacting the overall economic performance [2][3] - In June, external demand was boosted by the easing of tariffs, but domestic demand remained weak, particularly in the real estate market [3] - Financial data showed an unexpected increase in social financing and M1 growth, indicating a positive trend in the financial sector [3][5] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a return to a fluctuating pattern in the bond market, with a notable increase in the issuance of government bonds [4][6] - Financial data for June showed improvements in both total volume and structure, with private sector financing demand showing signs of recovery [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with liquidity being a key variable influencing market performance [6] Industry Research - The report discusses the launch of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with rules being further optimized to enhance the procurement process [7][9] - Notable company announcements include the acceptance of applications for new drug approvals and acquisitions within the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 4.52% during the reporting period [8][9]

消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要发力点。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超表 示，按照既定工作安排，将下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，并分领域制定落实到每月、每周 的"国补"资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 会议指出，要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合 力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。有关部门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建 议，积极帮助地方和企业解决困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 "做强国内大循环是一项系统工程，需要各方面政策同向发力、形成合力。落实好会议部署，要进一步 加强部门政策协同联动，完善政策落地长效机制，并要密切跟踪形势变化，做好政策储备，确保需要时 能够及时推出、尽快见效。"张林山说。(记者魏玉坤) 16日召开的国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部署。 最新数据显示，今年上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，是经 济增长的主动力。会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 "'战略之举'，凸显做强国内大 ...

新华财经北京7月21日电过去的一周（7月14日-18日），受税期、买断式逆回购等公开市场操作影响，资金整体偏松，主要期限资金利率 有所下行。截至7月18日收盘，国债现券期货涨跌互现，10年期国债活跃券收益率报1.6625%，30年期国债活跃券收益率收报1.8730%， 10年期国开债活跃券收益率报1.7420%。 机构认为，债市当前利空有限，股债双牛格局之下债市较难出现大的趋势性行情，但往后看可能存在做多契机。预计央行降准降息或者 重启购买国债，实质性货币宽松落地前后，债市将迎来上涨；权益市场在牛市格局下出现超预期回踩或者阶段性调整，对债市压制情绪 减弱，可能促使债市上涨突破。当前货币大幅宽松的必要性不高，央行重启购买国债的可能性大于降准降息，考虑到权益市场阶段性回 踩或将出现，三季度尤其是7月下旬至8月可能是债市破局的较好契机。 市场回顾 具体来看，周一早盘资金面均衡偏紧，债市先弱后强维持震荡，现券期货尾盘多数走弱，10年期国债和10年期国开债活跃券收益率收报 1.660%和1.746%，与上周五基本持平；周二，资金面先紧后松，主要期限资金利率有所上行，债市维持偏强震荡格局，尾盘10年期国债 和10年期国开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively tracks national news, economic data, and market trends in multiple areas including national policies, Henan's economy, bond markets, stock markets, and the brokerage sector. It presents the latest policies, economic indicators, and market performance, aiming to provide a basis for investment analysis and decision - making. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National News and Data Tracking - **National Policies**: From July 14 - 20, 2025, multiple important policies were issued, such as the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" by the central financial regulatory authorities, aiming to promote green financial development [10][11]. - **Economic Data**: In June 2025, new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year, with a growth rate of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, national GDP showed stable growth in various aspects such as agriculture, industry, and consumption [20][28]. 3.2 Henan Economic and Policy Tracking - **Policies**: Henan issued the "Opinions on Building a Pro - clean Government - business Relationship and Creating a First - class Business Environment" and held a work promotion meeting on integrating into and serving the national unified market [38][39]. - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, Henan's economy showed strong demand - side pull, emerging kinetic energy growth, and improved development quality and efficiency. For example, high - tech manufacturing investment increased by 12.1%, and online retail sales increased by 16.3% [46]. 3.3 Bond Market Operation Tracking - **Interest Rates**: This week, short - term government bond yields declined, while long - term yields increased. Credit bond yields also showed different degrees of decline [55][62]. - **Liquidity**: The net investment in the open market and MLF this week was 126.11 billion yuan, and the money market interest rate increased [59]. - **Supply Structure**: As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of national bonds and local government bonds increased compared to the same period in 2024, while the issuance of short - term financing and corporate bonds decreased [60]. 3.4 Stock Market Operation Tracking - **Global Markets**: Among global markets, the Russian index led with a 4.82% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a - 0.07% change [73][74]. - **Domestic Markets**: In the domestic A - share market, the ChiNext Index led with a 3.17% increase, and the top three industries with the highest increases were communication (7.56%), pharmaceutical biology (4%), and automobiles (3.28%) [79][82]. 3.5 Brokerage Sector Weekly Market Tracking - **Brokerage Index**: The securities II index of the CITIC secondary industry had a - 0.95% change this week, with an excess return of - 2.04% compared to the CSI 300 index. The top three brokerage firms with the highest increases were Huaxi Securities (3.27%), Guoxin Securities (3.26%), and China Merchants Securities (2.46%) [106]. - **Valuation**: As of the end of this week, the average P/B of the brokerage sector was 1.46 times, with 28 companies having a PB lower than the industry average, an increase of 1 compared to the previous period [110].