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存款利率调降叠加LPR下行,对银行息差及存款影响几何
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-20 10:03
Group 1 - The six major banks collectively announced a reduction in deposit rates, with cuts ranging from 5 basis points (BP) to 25 BP, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 BP for both one-year and five-year terms [1][2] - The reduction in deposit rates is the largest in recent years, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, potentially leading to a shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [1][6] - According to CICC's static calculations, the impact of the LPR and deposit rate cuts on banks' net interest margin (NIM), revenue, and profit is an increase of 7 BP, 3 BP, and 6 BP respectively, indicating a generally positive effect on banks [2][3] Group 2 - The adjusted interest rates for fixed-term deposits are now 0.95% for one year, 1.05% for two years, 1.25% for three years, and 1.3% for five years, with significant reductions in the longer-term rates [2] - The average reduction in deposit rates is approximately 16 BP, which is greater than the LPR cut, reflecting a protective measure for banks' interest margins [2][3] - The ongoing low interest rate environment is expected to alleviate debt burdens for enterprises and households, stimulate economic activity, and stabilize banks' asset quality, despite causing a significant impact on listed banks' operating income [2][4] Group 3 - The net interest margin for listed banks is projected to decline by 2.20% year-on-year in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, with the average NIM expected to be 1.52% [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a further decrease in the net interest margin to 1.43%, which is significantly below the 1.8% warning level [4][5] - The trend of funds flowing from banks to non-bank financial institutions is exacerbated by the reduction in deposit rates, with a notable increase in bank liabilities to other financial companies [6]
“双降”落地:存款利息跌破1%,百万房贷月供少还54元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 09:50
5月20日,新一轮存款利率下调全面启动。国有六大行一年期定存利率集体跌破1%,除了邮储银行降至0.98%,其余五大行均降至0.95%。招商银行和光大银 行已同步跟进下调存款利率。 值得注意的是,同一天, 最新贷款市场报价利率(LPR)报价出炉。其中,1年期LPR为3%,5年期以上LPR为3.5%,均较此前下降10个基点,再次出现"存 款利率降幅>LPR降幅"的非对称降幅。 存款利率跌破"1时代" 国有大行和头部股份行牵头开启2022年9月以来第七轮存款挂牌利率下调。 工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行和交通银行等主要国有大行活期存款利率统一降至0.05%。定期整存整取中,三个月期降至0.65%,半年期降至 0.85%,一年期降至0.95%,二年期降至1.05%,三年期降至1.25%,五年期降至1.3%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息等产品期限均下调15个基点。7天 期通知存款利率降至0.3%。 值得注意的是,邮储银行也采取了同等幅度的调整,但在部分期限存款利率上略高于其他国有大行,例如其半年期定期整存整取利率为0.86%,一年期为 0.98%。 在股份制银行方面,招商银行和光大银行已迅速跟进,下调幅度与 ...
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250520
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 09:15
研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/5/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,058.00 | -11↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2160329 | +47284↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -102173 | -14080↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -25 | +3↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日,吨) | 51625 | -89442↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 144 | +6↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计,元/吨) | 3,200.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅,元/吨) | 3,282 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计,元/吨) | 3,380.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E ...
一年期定存利率跌破1%!存款向股市搬家何时出现?——道达投资手记
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-20 09:09
今天,最新一期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)出炉。其中,5年期以上LPR为3.5%,上月为3.6%;1年期 LPR为3%,上月为3.1%。 随着5年期以上LPR下调,房贷利率也将随之下降,这对有房贷的人来说是一个好消息。 以商贷额度100万元、贷款30年、等额本息还款方式计算,此次LPR下降10个基点,月供将减少56元, 30年月供累积减少2万元。 不过,在利好房贷一族的同时,靠吃利息的存款一族却迎来了"利空"。今天,六家国有大行集体下调存 款利率。股份制银行中,招商银行已同步下调存款利率。 以工商银行为例,定期整存整取一年期、二年期均下调15个基点,分别为0.95%、1.05%;三年期和五 年期均下调25个基点,分别为1.25%和1.3%。 前两年,有新闻报道,在一线城市中,一些挣了几百万并辞职的人,依靠存款利息生活。随着存款利率 的下调,利息收入明显减少。 如今,1年期定存利率跌破1%,来到0.95%。100万元存一年定期,利息9500元。达哥感觉,当初靠吃利 息"躺平"的人,美梦没了。 银行存款利率下降,资金必然会寻找新的去处。在达哥看来,股市是一个好去处。 为何这样说?达哥有几点理由。 我们回到市场。 今 ...
利好落地!大行下调存款利率,债市关注哪些投资机会?
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-05-20 06:43
Group 1 - Major state-owned banks have announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, affecting various products including demand deposits, time deposits, and notice deposits [1] - The market had anticipated this new round of deposit rate cuts, leading to a recovery in bond market sentiment, with interest rate products leading the gains [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, which will influence various interest rates including deposit and loan rates [2] Group 2 - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to lower market funding costs, potentially leading to a decline in yields for credit products as well [4] - The cut in deposit rates opens up spread opportunities for credit products, as lower deposit rates make these assets more scarce and increase their allocation space [4] - Investors are advised to focus on medium to long-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds as potential investment opportunities following the rate cuts [4]
金融期货日报-20250520
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:09
◆ 核心观点: 特朗普分别与俄乌元首通话,普京称愿与乌方共同起草和平备忘录;泽连斯 基称愿与俄签署和平备忘录,愿进行任何形式的谈判但领土妥协、撤军"免 谈"。美联储二、三号人物等高官齐给降息泼冷水,暗示利率可能维持到至 少 9 月。中国 4 月社零总额同比增长放缓至 5.1%,规上工业增加值增长 6.1%, 1 至 4 月城镇固定资产投资增 4%、全国房地产开发投资同比降 10.3%。中国 商务部:美方行为严重破坏中美日内瓦高层会谈共识,要求美方纠偏纠错。 市场暂无主线驱动,股指或震荡运行。 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 策略建议: 防守观望。 国债 ◆ 核心观点: 整体而言,当前债市仍处于经济弱修复的基本面环境中,市场交易逻辑逐步 回归对经济内生动能的定价。市场对存款利率下调的预期具有现实基础,当 前银行净息差持续收窄的压力客观存在,新一轮存款利率调整也是配合政策 利率下行的配套措施,稳息差任重而道远。从市场传闻的下调幅度来看,显 著高于政策利率的调降幅度,这也为收益率下行提供了新的支撑。 ◆ 策略建议: 短期看好。 研究咨询部 2025-05-20 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格:鄂证监期货字 ...
1年期跌破1%、活期降至0.05%,新一轮存款利率下调落地
第一财经· 2025-05-20 04:58
本文字数:1424,阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.05. 20 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 存最高仅为1.3%,即按照挂牌利率不上浮,继续保持倒挂状态。 此次存款利率调整已在市场预期之内。此前央行行长潘功胜在5月7日国新办新闻发布会上宣布降准 降息,同时提到央行将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 20日出炉的新一期LPR(贷款市场报价利率)显示,5年期以上LPR为3.5%,上月为3.6%;1年期 LPR为3%,上月为3.1%,均下行10BP,与此前逆回购利率调整幅度一致。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为,截至2025年一季度,一般贷款加权平均利率下行至3.75%的历史 低位,商业银行净息差也回落至1.43%的低点。"本轮LPR降息落地后贷款利率料将进一步下行;本 轮存款降息和LPR调降同步落地,是在利率自律机制影响下,商业银行主动稳定息差的举措。"明明 说。 从调整范围和幅度来看,此次大行活期存款利率降幅与去年10月调整时降幅一致,3年期以下定期存 款利率降幅较上次收窄10个基点,3年期及5年期品种利率降幅与上次一致,均为25BP。有行业人 士对第一财经表示,定期存款仍是压降负债成本的重要方向。以3 ...
新一轮存款降息启动!六大行+招行调降存款利率
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-05-20 04:25
5月20日,贷款市场报价利率(LPR)迎来年内首次下调,一年期LPR和五年期以上LPR均下调10个基 点。 同日,中国银行、农业银行、工商银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行六大国有银行均对存款利率进 行了调整。 新一轮存款降息又开始了。这次除国有银行外,股份制银行中招商银行也第一时间跟进。其中,三年期 和五年期存款下调幅度最大,达到25个基点。 最大降幅25个基点 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,2025年5月20日,贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:一 年期LPR为3.00%,五年期以上LPR为3.50%,均较前期下调10个基点。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前 有效。 本报记者 张漫游 北京报道 "与之前不同的是,不同类型银行同步下调存款利率,不仅有助于更好地稳定银行净息差,也有助于更 好降低实体经济融资成本。"对于此次存款利率降息,邮储银行高级研究员娄飞鹏告诉记者,降低实体 经济融资成本需要降低贷款利率,贷款利率下降进一步增加银行净息差下行压力,需要降低负债成本, 而存款是银行重要的负债来源,因此需要降低存款利率稳定净息差,提高银行服务实体经济的可持续 性。 董希淼指出,近年以来,存款利率延续下 ...
大消息!下调!百万房贷30年少还1.9万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 04:09
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to announce the latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on May 20, with the current 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, remaining unchanged for six consecutive months [1] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates, which is expected to lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [1][2] - Major banks are anticipated to act first in lowering deposit rates, while smaller banks will follow based on their circumstances and market competition [1] Group 2 - A report indicates that a new round of deposit rate cuts is imminent, with the average interest rate for new personal housing loans at approximately 3.1% as of April [2] - For a personal mortgage loan of 1 million yuan over 30 years, the monthly payment is expected to decrease by 54 yuan, resulting in a total repayment reduction of 19,000 yuan [2] Group 3 - On May 20, major state-owned banks announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, with the largest cut being 25 basis points [5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) lowered its current deposit rate to 0.05% and adjusted various term deposit rates downwards, with the 3-year and 5-year rates reduced to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively [5][10] - Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and other major banks made similar reductions in their deposit rates, reflecting a coordinated effort to adjust to market conditions [10][16] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the recent deposit rate cuts are a result of banks adjusting their strategies based on market conditions, which may enhance their ability to support the real economy [18] - The long-term deposit rates have seen larger cuts, particularly for terms over three years, which may lead to a shift in consumer behavior towards other investment options [18]
新一轮存款降息来袭!大行、股份行领衔,一年期利率破1%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-20 04:09
新一轮存款"降息"来了!5月20日,北京商报记者梳理发现,截至目前,已有包括国有六大行、招商银行、光大银行在内的8家银行宣布下调存款挂牌利率, 此次调整涉及活期存款、定期存款和通知存款等多种产品类型,下调幅度为5—25个基点。此次调整既是对人民银行政策利率传导的响应,也旨在缓解银行 净息差持续收窄的压力。分析人士认为,当前净息差处于低位,银行需要保持合理盈利以支撑信贷投放,在适度宽松货币政策导向下,存款利率仍有下调空 间。 | 唄 | 年利率(%) | | --- | --- | | 一、城乡居民及单位存款 | | | (一) 活期 | 0.05 | | (二) 定期 | | | 1.整存整取 | | | 三个月 | 0.65 | | 非年 | 0.85 | | 一年 | 0.95 | | 二年 | 1.05 | | 三年 | 1.25 | | 五年 | 1.30 | | 2.零存整取、整存零取、存本取息 | | | 一年 | 0.65 | | 三年 | 0.85 | | 五年 | 0.85 | | 3.定活两便 | 按一年以内定期整存整取同档次利率打6折 | | 二、协定存款 | 0.10 | | 三、通知 ...