导 语 ： "胖改"一年后，永辉超市仍未走出业绩亏损的周期。 7月14日晚间，永辉超市（601933.SH）发布公告，预计2025年半年度归母净利润亏损约2.4亿元，扣非后亏 损约8.3亿元。永辉超市称，公司于2024年下半年开启整体战略与经营的深度转型工作，2025年是公司转型 的深水期和持续阵痛期。 2021年-2024年，永辉超市已经连续亏损4年之久，累计亏损额达95亿元。自2024年6月开始，永辉超市 向"零售巨头"胖东来求援，以胖东来模式对全国范围内的门店进行调改，至今已1年有余。 综合永辉超市自2010年上市以来的上半年利润情况，其2025年上半年的亏损，是公司上市以来半年度业绩 中的第二大亏损记录，如果排除2021年行业特殊情况外，则是公司历史最大亏损纪录。 永辉超市中报业绩 图源：同花顺 图源： 永辉超市公告 永辉"胖改"后预亏， "长痛"变"阵痛"了？ 对于上半年预亏，永辉超市给出了三点原因。 永辉超市表示，2025年上半年共调改开业93家门店(截至2025年6月30日调改门店总数达124家)。门店调改 需经历歇业装修、新设备投入、旧资产报废、重开业支出、人员技能爬坡等大量必要过程。 其次， ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 15 日 6 月金融数据点评：结构改善初显，信贷扩张尚待盈利信号确认 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320524100001 投资要点： 社融存量增速回升至 8.9%。6 月新增社融 4.2 万亿，同比多增 9008 亿， 社融存量增速回升至 8.9%。从分项来看，企业中短贷、居民中长贷和政 府债券均实现同比多增，信贷结构显著优于前月。社融结构逐步从"债券 支撑"向"实体扩张"回归，显示信用派生出现阶段性改善。 企业贷款结构明显改善。6 月新增企业短贷 1.16 万亿，同比多增 4900 亿，为年内最高水平。一方面，季末考核推动银行加大短期信贷投放，部 分企业以短贷替代其他融资渠道；另一方面，近期全国"清欠行动"加速 推进，部分地区通过银行贷款置换拖欠企业账款，也在一定程度上推动短 贷规模扩张。新增企业中长期贷款 1.01 万亿，同比多增 400 亿，亦为今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation plan for the market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid pricing in Gansu Province, aiming to promote high-quality development of renewable energy through market transactions and price mechanisms [1][17]. Summary by Sections Market Entry and Pricing Mechanism - All renewable energy projects in Gansu, including centralized and distributed solar and wind power, will have their grid electricity enter market transactions, with prices determined through market trading [1]. - Distributed solar projects can participate as independent market entities or aggregate to enter the market, while those not participating will default to the weighted average price of all renewable projects in the real-time market [1]. Existing Projects Pricing and Scale - For existing renewable projects that commenced operation before June 1, 2025, the mechanism's electricity scale is set at 154 billion kWh, with a mechanism price of 0.3078 yuan per kWh [2][3]. - The execution period for these projects will be determined based on the earlier of the remaining reasonable utilization hours or a 20-year full lifecycle [3]. New Projects Pricing and Scale - For new renewable projects starting after June 1, 2025, the annual scale of electricity included in the mechanism will depend on the national renewable energy consumption responsibility and user capacity [7]. - The mechanism price for these projects will be determined through competitive bidding, with a cap on the bid price [8]. Project Submission and Qualification - Projects must provide various documentation to qualify for the bidding process, including operational permits and project approvals [10][11]. - Distributed energy aggregators must be registered companies in Gansu and provide necessary documentation for their projects [12]. Mechanism Electricity Scale and Limits - The annual mechanism electricity scale will be clarified by the provincial development and reform commission and related departments by September 30 each year [13]. - To prevent irrational pricing, individual project submissions for mechanism electricity cannot exceed 80% of their expected total grid electricity [14].

Economic Growth and Indicators - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is reported at 5.3%, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% and fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% [1] - Social retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in June [1] - The total social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Urbanization and Structural Changes - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the need for integrated planning in population, industry, and urban development, transitioning from rapid growth to stable development [2] - The focus is on improving public services and developing a new model for real estate, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing [2] Consumption and Investment Dynamics - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating that domestic demand, especially consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth [3] - Investment growth has been volatile, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 2.8%, largely due to a significant decline in real estate investment [5][6] - Private investment decreased by 0.6%, but other sectors excluding real estate saw a 5.1% increase [6] Price Trends and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% [7][8] - The CPI's marginal recovery is attributed to stable industrial consumer goods prices and a relatively stable service price environment [9] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Traditional industries are facing downward pressure on prices due to overcapacity and low-price competition, particularly in sectors like cement and steel [10][11] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to address structural issues in supply and demand, promoting orderly exit of outdated capacities [11] - New growth drivers are emerging, but their impact is currently limited, necessitating a transition period for traditional industries [12]

Company Overview - The company was established in 2002 and became part of the Xizi Elevator Group in 2002, listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2011, and renamed Xizi Clean Energy Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in 2022 [2][3] - The main business includes waste heat boilers, clean energy power generation equipment, and overall solutions for energy utilization [2][3] Business Segments - The company operates in four main business areas: - Waste heat boilers (including gas turbine waste heat boilers, dry quenching waste heat boilers, etc.) - Clean energy equipment (including waste incineration boilers, biomass boilers, etc.) - Solutions (including molten salt energy storage and heat exchangers) - Spare parts and services [2][3] Future Market Directions - Focus on overseas markets to increase international market share and expand OEM opportunities [4] - Target the renewable energy market, leveraging molten salt storage technology for various applications [4] - Explore spare parts and retrofit markets in response to national policies on equipment upgrades [4] Nuclear Power Development - Over 20 years of experience in the nuclear power sector with licenses for civil nuclear manufacturing [5] - Active participation in supplying equipment for nuclear power plants and collaboration with institutions for advanced nuclear applications [5][6] Flexibility in Thermal Power Market - The company is involved in a significant project for flexible peak-shaving technology using molten salt storage, with operational metrics indicating a load reduction capability of 100 MW and peak output increase of 47 MW [8][10] - The project is the first of its kind in the country, enhancing frequency modulation capabilities by 1.5 times [10] Order Situation - In the first half of 2025, the company secured new orders totaling CNY 2.784 billion, with specific contributions from various segments: - Waste heat boilers: CNY 703 million - Clean energy equipment: CNY 281 million - Solutions: CNY 1.477 billion - Spare parts and services: CNY 323 million [11][12] Data Center Market - The company is exploring opportunities in the data center sector, focusing on energy management solutions and waste heat recovery [13] International Expansion - The company is targeting Southeast Asia, South America, and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative for overseas market expansion [14] - Increased recognition of domestic brands in international markets is contributing to growth in overseas sales [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/PR, Ethylene glycol, Asphalt, Propylene [1][2][3] - **Bullish Rebound**: Glass, Caustic soda, Urea [2] - **Narrow - range Increase**: Soda ash [2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Continued Rebound**: PVC [1] - **Weak Oscillation**: Propylene [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, leading to a decline in oil prices. LPG is weak due to the falling oil prices at the cost - end and sufficient propane supply. L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with cost support weakening and supply - side pressures. PVC has a short - term long and long - term short trend driven by policy expectations. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance but is affected by falling oil prices, presenting a bearish oscillation. PTA and ethylene glycol have an expectedly loose supply - demand situation and are recommended to short at high prices. Glass is expected to rise due to inventory reduction and policy support. Soda ash has a narrow - range increase under high - supply and high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda continues to rebound with supply pressure easing and demand from alumina. Methanol is bearish on rebounds due to device maintenance and MTO demand negative feedback. Urea is short - term strong due to international price increases and export speculation. Asphalt is bearish as the cost - end oil prices fall and supply is sufficient. Propylene is in a weak oscillation with cost support weakening [1][2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 3.86%, Brent down 1.63%, and SC up 1.55% [4][5]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. During the consumption peak season, there is some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released, pressuring the oil prices above. In terms of supply, Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons, and the number of active US oil rigs decreased to 424. In terms of demand, China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, and the IEA expects a global oil demand growth of 720,000 barrels per day in 2026. In terms of inventory, the US crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion cycle, the crude oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [505 - 525] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,182 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,590 (+0), 4,496 (+0), and 4,640 (+20) yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. With OPEC+'s production increase, the supply - side pressure of LPG is rising, and the demand is weak. As of July 11, the PDH device profit was - 384 yuan/ton, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of upstream crude oil is expected to move down, and LPG is over - valued. It is recommended to short with a light position. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4100 - 4200] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market returns to fundamentals. Although the oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply changes little. The cost support weakens, the device maintenance increases, and the supply pressure eases marginally. There are new device production plans in July - August, with a long - term weak expectation. The agricultural film start - up rate increases month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term oscillation, try to go long on dips. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract price and related indicators show certain changes, such as the main contract closing price, position, and inventory [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The cost support weakens as the centers of propylene and crude oil move down. The number of Jineng Chemical's warehouse receipts continues to increase, suppressing the rebound space. The device restart plans increase, and there are new production capacity plans in the third quarter, putting pressure on the long - term supply [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, and take the opportunity to conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract price and related indicators change, with the main contract closing price rising and the warehouse receipts increasing [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The scale of domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance is expected to narrow, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the upstream cost is expected to be stable next week. The market continues to trade "anti - involution", with insufficient upward driving force in fundamentals, increasing warehouse receipts, and rising social inventory. Some devices are under maintenance or starting up, and it is in the off - season of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the change of anti - dumping tax policies [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PX spot price in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,694 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices reduce their loads, and overseas devices operate at a high load. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+5.3) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 99.7 (-4.0) dollars/ton. The gasoline cracking spread weakens. The PX weekly output is 69.7 (-1.1) million tons, and the international PX start - up rate is 73.8% (+0.6pct). The import volume in May was 77.3 million tons. The demand is relatively sufficient, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6710 - 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,715 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,700 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is sufficient. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. The PTA spot processing fee is 125.9 (-4.9) yuan/ton, the disk processing fee is 315.4 (+15.6) yuan/ton, the weekly device maintenance capacity loss is 35.2 (-2.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 80.4% (+1.2pct), and the weekly output is 143.7 (+2.1) million tons. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing but overall neutral [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4700 - 4770] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,383 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,305 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device maintenance is less than that of restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing, with a loose supply expectation. The MEG weekly maintenance loss is 24.1 (-0.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 60.4% (+0.6pct), and the weekly output is 36.7 (+0.2) million tons. The arrival volume and import volume are low, but the expected arrival volume increases. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is stable, with the port inventory being low [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4310 - 4370] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price in the central China market increases, the futures price rises, the basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged [27][29]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro - level, the policy emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity and the technological improvement of coal - fired production lines, which is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The in - production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the weekly output increases slightly, the enterprise inventory decreases, and the production profit varies. The fuel price rises, and the spot price increases [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on going long based on the 5 - day moving average. FG is recommended to focus on the range of [1080 - 1110] [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price rises, the main basis narrows, the warehouse receipts decrease, and the forecast remains unchanged [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side capacity - reduction policy boosts the industry, but the market sentiment is slightly negative as the policy speculation weakens and the inventory accumulates. The supply is at a high level with a slight decrease due to device maintenance. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32%, the inventory increases, and the downstream support is okay but the terminal consumption is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider shorting on rebounds. SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1220 - 1250] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price generally increases, the futures price center moves up, the basis strengthens, and the warehouse receipts decrease [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate is 80.4%, with a decline of 0.1% month - on - month, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply pressure may ease in the short - term. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry increases, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the liquid - caustic inventory decreases [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to continue to rebound. SH is recommended to focus on the range of [2500 - 2550] [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,381 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,370 yuan/ton. The basis and month - spread change, and the trans - shipment profit increases [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up load, while the overseas device load recovers. The supply pressure is still large. The methanol weighted profit is 102.1 (-1.2) yuan/ton, the weekly device loss is 34.36 (+7.71) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 84.75% (-3.42pct), and the weekly output is 190.99 (-7.71) million tons. The MTO demand has a negative feedback, the traditional downstream start - up rate is high, the social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is recommended to focus on the range of [2375 - 2415] [38]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The daily urea output is nearly 200,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, the industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand decreases month - on - month. The cost support exists, the basis is strong, the domestic fundamentals are loose, the international price rises, and there is speculation about urea exports [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long with a light position when the market opens low, and also pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. UR is recommended to focus on the range of [1755 - 1785] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price falls, the raw material supply is sufficient, the supply decreases slightly, the inventory accumulates, the fundamentals are neutral, and the demand is affected by the weather, with the previous "north - strong and south - weak" pattern reversed [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. BU is recommended to focus on the range of [3620 - 3680] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end propane price continues to fall, the cost support weakens, the device restart plans increase, the output is expected to increase, and the downstream and traders replenish stocks at low prices [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term decline space is limited, and short on rebounds. Propylene is recommended to focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is facing significant losses in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, compared to a profit of 280 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 1: Store Renovation and Performance - As of mid-July 2025, Yonghui Supermarket has completed renovations on 132 stores, accounting for approximately 25% of its total stores, with plans to exceed 178 renovated stores by the end of August 2025 [4] - The company has closed 227 underperforming stores in the first half of 2025, leading to costs associated with lease compensation, personnel compensation, and asset write-offs [2][4] - The renovation of stores based on the "Pang Donglai model" has shown positive short-term effects, with significant increases in customer traffic and sales in newly renovated stores [5][7] Group 2: Financial Performance and Losses - In the second half of 2024, the company reported a loss of approximately 1.74 billion yuan, continuing into the first half of 2025 [5] - The company is undergoing a major transformation, with a goal to complete renovations on over half of its stores by the Lunar New Year in 2026 [4][5] Group 3: Management Changes - In March 2025, a new board of directors was formed, with significant representation from Miniso, which became the largest shareholder by acquiring 29.4% of Yonghui Supermarket [7][8] - The CEO position remains vacant following the resignation of Li Songfeng in March 2025, with the reform leadership group currently acting in this capacity [8]

本文转自【新华社】 7月14日， 在一处位于福州苍霞新城嘉华苑的社工服务中心，老师与职工子女暑托班的孩子们开展教学互动。新华 社记者 林善传 摄 福州市高度重视城市建设，大力实施旧城改造、内河治理，推动城市品质不断提升。2000年7月，福州 市启动台江苍霞棚屋区改造工程。400天后，曾经是木板搭建、纸糊墙壁、破旧不堪的"纸褙苍霞"棚屋 区全部改造完成，一片新城拔地而起，居民居住条件得到大大改善。2021年9月，福州市对苍霞新城开 展新一轮全方位改造提升，并与福州上下杭历史文化街区有机融合，打造全民友好的苍霞新城邻里活动 中心、幸福便民驿站、长者食堂、儿童梦想空间等多项设施。从棚屋区到现代化社区，从"忧居"到"安 居"再到"宜居"，苍霞新城的蝶变是福州城市建设的缩影，也成为了有福之州、幸福之城的居住典范。 福州市苍霞新城老旧小区改造提升项目荣获2023年中国人居环境范例奖。 游客在福州市台江区下杭路的"苍霞人家生活馆"参观。新华社记者 林善传 摄 人家生活馆"里翻拍的苍霞新城改造前的图片（7月13日摄）。新华社记者 林善传 摄 居民在苍霞新城嘉和苑休憩。新华社记者 林善传 摄 这是"苍霞 7月13日， 7月13 ...

Group 1 - The European ministers are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration before the August 1 deadline, aiming to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship [2] - Trump's fluctuating sentiments towards the EU, sometimes friendly and other times accusatory, contribute to the ongoing threat of a 30% tariff [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that continuing trade in the traditional transatlantic manner would be nearly impossible under such tariffs, effectively prohibiting trade [2] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average tariff rate of 35% on EU goods, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The potential economic loss for Germany due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% could exceed €200 billion by 2028, impacting Chancellor Merz's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending [3] - The long-term implications of high tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for lost economic activity to fund essential services and military restructuring [3] Group 3 - The EU has made progress in establishing preliminary agreements with new trade partners, but faces challenges in finalizing these agreements [4] - Analysts suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide the EU with an opportunity to push through long-delayed single market reforms and rebalance its economy away from heavy reliance on exports [4] Group 4 - The IMF estimates that internal barriers to the free movement of goods within the EU equate to tariffs of 44% on goods and 110% on services [5] - Proposed reforms to create a more open cross-border capital market have seen little progress over the past decade [5] - The EU remains open to negotiations while preparing retaliatory measures in case talks break down, with uncertainty potentially influencing Trump's decision-making [5]

电新行业2025Q2前瞻及策略展望 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-07-15 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 邬博华 | 分析师 曹海花 | 分析师 司鸿历 | 分析师 叶之楠 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 | | SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 | | SFC执业证书编号：BUD284 | | | 分析师 袁澎 | 分析师 王耀 | 分析师 任佳惠 | 分析师 周圣钧 | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120003 | %% %% %% %% research.95 ...