新华社北京12月11日电 题：坚定信心乘势而进 全力实现"十五五"良好开局——与会同志谈贯彻落 实中央经济工作会议精神 新华社记者 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议期 间，部分与会同志接受新华社记者采访，畅谈对会议精神的学习认识和下一步工作打算。 大家一致表示，习近平总书记站在强国建设、民族复兴的战略高度，深刻洞察国际国内形势，对做 好经济工作的规律性认识不断深化，对"十五五"开局之年经济工作的战略部署指向明确，为开创中国式 现代化新局面提供了根本遵循。全党全国各族人民将进一步坚定发展信心、凝聚发展共识，真抓实干、 奋发有为，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。以习近平同志为核 心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发 展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 会议要求，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "会议对明年 ...

报告导读： 政策基调总体温和，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内 功"修炼。 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11-12 日在北京举行，会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对经济工作的定调，部署了 2026 年经济工作的八大重点任务。 总体来看，会议充分肯定了今年的经济工作，总结当前经济面临的机遇与挑战，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功"修炼。预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续积极基调，但不搞大水漫灌强刺激，做好"逆周期"调节的同时，也会注重"跨周期"调节。 具体来看，会议新闻稿有以下六个亮点： 第一，政策基调偏温和，聚焦内部形势和中长期问题。 总体基调由 2024 年底经济工作会议的"稳中求进，以进促稳、守正创新"，转变为"坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。表态上偏温和，预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续 2025 年基调，整体积极，但也不会大水漫灌强刺激。 第二，明确财政和货币政策具体方向，表达出政策态度的连续性。财政政策方面， 一是，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，预计赤字率维持在 4% 左右。二是，提出"规范税收优惠和财政补贴政 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economic layout will be crucial for the direction of development over the next five years, with a focus on high-quality growth and stability amid complex international circumstances [2][4]. Economic Policy and Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to maintain a stable yet progressive approach, enhancing policy efficiency and effectiveness while addressing both existing and emerging challenges [5][6]. - The conference highlighted the importance of macroeconomic governance, advocating for a combination of existing and new policies to stimulate economic growth [6]. Key Economic Tasks - Eight key tasks for 2026 were identified, including fostering domestic demand, driving innovation, enhancing reform efforts, promoting open cooperation, ensuring coordinated development, leading with carbon neutrality, prioritizing public welfare, and managing risks in key sectors [7][8]. Focus on Consumption - Consumption is prioritized as a key driver of domestic demand, with plans to enhance consumer capacity, expand the supply of quality goods and services, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [8][9]. Innovation and Technology - Innovation is positioned as a core engine for high-quality development, with a focus on nurturing new industries and technologies to enhance international competitiveness [10]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4% for 2024, indicating sustained high levels of fiscal support [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery through various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The conference highlights the need for "flexible and efficient" use of monetary policy tools, indicating a shift from last year's focus on "timely" adjustments to a more proactive and efficient approach [3][4]. - The policy direction for the upcoming year will prioritize long-term economic development over short-term stimulus effects, integrating both new and existing policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [2][4]. Financial Sector - The conference introduces the initiative to deepen the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the financial system in supporting technological innovation and the real economy [5].

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政 补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政 补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਮੇ | IF升贴水 | 15.57% | 7.35% | 4.58% | 4.33% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 10. 64% | 4.63% | 2.20% | 2.09% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 19. 15% | 12.43% | 10.81% | 11.30% | | 情 Я | IM升贴水 | 20. 17% | 15.75% | 14.05% | 13.68% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水)。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 免责 、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30% to 112.790, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% to 108.030, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.825, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% to 102.456 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 1.10 basis points to 1.9050%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.8360%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield decreased by 1.25 basis points to 2.2410% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 1,898 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on December 10, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 793 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 1,105 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market liquidity is more abundant, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping by 1 basis point to below 1.29%, and overnight quotes for anonymous (X-REPO) falling to 1.25% [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month; the PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2% [3] - The increase in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is influenced by domestic supply-demand structure optimization and international commodity price transmission, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] Operational Recommendations - The December Politburo meeting emphasized "quality and efficiency" and "counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policies," indicating that there may not be significant increases in counter-cyclical policies, and total policies like rate cuts may be cautious [4] - The current 10-year government bond faces resistance around the 1.85% level, while the T2603 contract may find support near 107.6 [4] - The market sentiment has stabilized, and the pressure on the bond market may have passed; if year-end institutional rebalancing concludes and incremental policies do not meet expectations, a rebound in the bond market may occur [4]

由于具备专款专用、用途灵活、不列入财政赤字、即收即支等特点，作为财政扩张工具的特别国债往往 在宏观经济政策加大逆周期调节力度时备受市场期待。 今年以来，中央财政不仅继续发行1.3万亿元超长期特别国债，更大力度支持"两重"项目建设以及加力 扩围实施"两新"政策。今年中央财政还专门发行5000亿元特别国债，为大型商业银行注入资本金。 近日召开的中共中央政治局会议明确，明年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。展望"十五五"开局之年， 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，基建投资在"十五五"开局之年随着大型项目开工有望提速，但高度 依赖中央财政支持力度。中央财政或通过超长期特别国债承担更多支出责任，以确保实物工作量。 本次拟发行的2025年到期续作特别国债(一期)、(二期)，期限品种分别为10年期4000亿元、15年期3500 亿元，在操作方式上依然参照过往特别国债到期续作。 2007年，经国务院同意和全国人大常委会批准，财政部发行了1.55万亿元特别国债，作为中国投资有限 责任公司的资本金来源。期限主要为10年、15年，2017年起陆续到期。此后，在2017年、2022年和2024 年上述部分特别国债到期时，财政部均向有关银 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...