Report Overview - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Source**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to tariff concerns, the price rebounded. Although the sentiment eased on Monday, the upward trend remains. The premium of Shanghai gold slightly expanded to -9.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, affected by tariff threats, the price rebounded on Monday after a decline. The premium of Shanghai silver significantly converged to -581 yuan/gram, and there is still support for the silver price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the gold price rebounded. On Monday, the sentiment eased, and the gold price continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 1.58% to $4035.50 per ounce. The U.S. three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes also closed down, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1.95 basis points to 4.117%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.57% to 98.84, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.1478 [4]. - **Silver**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the silver price rebounded on Monday after a decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 70,728 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1,169,061 kilograms, a daily decrease of 17,785 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Japan and Canada's stock markets are closed for holidays throughout the day. - China's September trade balance is to be released at an unspecified time during the day. - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens at an unspecified time during the day. - The winner of the Nobel Economics Prize will be announced at 17:45. - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene will give a speech at 19:05. - The World Bank and the IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting throughout the day until October 18. - 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will give a speech at 00:10 the next day [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the new U.S. government's policies will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, the shadow Fed's significant influence, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for the silver price. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for the silver price [13][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on October 10, 2025, was 216,933, a decrease of 12,288 or 5.36% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 77,992, a decrease of 1,688 or 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 10,600 or 7.09% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on October 10, 2025, was 343,384, a decrease of 564 or 0.16% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 249,445, a decrease of 9,664 or 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 9,100 or 10.73% [6][34].

Fundamental Analysis - The initial value of the U.S. one-year inflation expectation for October is 4.6%, slightly lower than the forecast and previous value of 4.7%, but still at a relatively high historical level, providing significant support for gold prices [1] - The slight decline in inflation expectations has not fundamentally alleviated market concerns about long-term price pressures, instead reinforcing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge amid overall uncertainty [1] - Increasing domestic economic pressures in the U.S., including a government plan to lay off over 4,000 employees primarily from the Democratic Party, may exacerbate social division and policy uncertainty, driving safe-haven funds towards the gold market [1] - The potential for significant adjustments in monetary policy is indicated by Trump's narrowing of the Federal Reserve chair candidate list to five, alongside the upcoming release of the September CPI report on October 24, which continues to fuel uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate policies, providing solid potential support for gold prices [1] - Escalating tensions in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Trump's potential intervention highlight the seriousness of the conflict, while the possibility of providing "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine could significantly escalate the situation, further supporting gold prices due to increased safe-haven sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price (XAUUSD) shows a strong bullish upward trend, with the moving average system in a bullish arrangement, indicating a potential for further upward movement after short-term corrections [4] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may suggest a short-term correction opportunity, but the overall market sentiment remains bullish [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a buy position is recommended around 4015.6, with a stop loss at 4005.0 and a target range of 4090.0-4110.0 [5] - For silver (XAGUSD), the price is on a strong upward trajectory, with a buy position suggested around 50.10, a stop loss at 49.90, and a target range of 51.21-51.50 [9] News Events - Upcoming events include China's September trade balance and the World Bank and IMF's autumn meetings, along with a speech by Federal Reserve's Paulson [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has initially risen but then fallen. The prices of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as macro - economy, raw material supply, smelting, demand, and inventory, showing different trends and investment outlooks [2] - For copper, short - term prices may fall after a sharp rise, and it is expected to fluctuate. For zinc, short - term macro - disturbances increase, and the investment view is bearish. For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors like Sino - US trade frictions and uncertain policies [9][95][195] 3. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Each metal shows different daily, weekly, and annual price changes [7] 02. Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bearish. The US government shutdown, poor ADP employment data, and Sino - US trade frictions have increased market uncertainty and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [9] - **Raw Material End**: Bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the suspension of a major copper mine in Indonesia has tightened the supply [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral to bullish. The losses of smelters using spot and long - term copper ore have both narrowed, and the copper output in September decreased and is expected to continue to decline in October [9] - **Demand End**: Bearish. The sharp rise in copper prices and the holiday have led to a significant decline in the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a short - term decline [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish for single - side trading, and consider domestic positive arbitrage [9] 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of a decline in global asset prices [95] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. Domestic and imported processing fees show different trends, and the purchasing enthusiasm of smelters for imported ores is not high [95] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The refined zinc output in September decreased, and it is expected to increase in October [95] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The "Silver October" peak season has limited expectations, and the downstream raw material procurement sentiment is weak [95] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Social inventories have increased after the holiday, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline [95] - **Investment View**: Bearish. Although the export window is almost open, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [95] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse arbitrage [95] 04. Nickel & Stainless Steel (NI & SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US trade friction has resurfaced, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased [195][196] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB approval system in Indonesia has changed, the nickel ore premium is firm, and the domestic port inventory has increased [195][196] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The output of pure nickel remains high, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the production of Indonesian nickel iron has slightly recovered [195][196] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The price of stainless steel fluctuates, the production of steel mills recovers limitedly, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The new energy demand remains high [195][196] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate [195][196] - **Investment View**: Weak in the short term. Pay attention to macro - factors and policy changes in resource - rich countries [195][196] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in a range for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage in the nickel market; Sell on rallies for single - side trading and no arbitrage in the stainless - steel market [195][196]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating tariff conflicts are increasing risk aversion and inflation expectations, providing support for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Key Information - China announced countermeasures against the U.S. 301 investigation into its shipbuilding industry, starting on October 14, imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [1]. - On October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a comprehensive upgrade of rare earth export controls, adding five types of medium and heavy rare earth elements and implementing "long-arm jurisdiction" over technology, equipment, and overseas products [1]. - On October 10, Trump declared on social media that starting November 1, an additional 100% tariff would be imposed on all products from China, on top of existing tariffs [1]. - Major asset classes saw declines on Friday due to heightened trade risks and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with U.S. and European stock markets falling collectively, U.S. oil main contracts dropping over 5%, and LME copper down approximately 4.5%. The U.S. dollar index fell by over 0.5%, while U.S. Treasury bonds and gold prices rose, with COMEX gold increasing by about 1.6%, marking an eight-week consecutive rise [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation trend [3].

Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced increased volatility, with US and European stocks declining while gold, US Treasuries, and the US dollar index rose[2] - On October 10, the S&P 500 index fell nearly 3% due to Trump's tariff threats, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.4%[2] - The Stoxx 600 index in Europe dropped 1.25% on the same day, with a weekly decline of 1.1%[2] Economic Policies - In the US, President Trump indicated plans to cut federal projects favored by Democrats amid a government shutdown stalemate, with permanent layoffs of federal employees confirmed[3] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes showed a willingness for further rate cuts, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October[3][7] - The Michigan consumer confidence index for October slightly decreased to 55, a five-month low, but still above market expectations[3][5] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields fell across all maturities, with the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.05%[14] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.8% and 3.3%, respectively, closing at $62.7 and $58.9 per barrel[17] - Gold prices rose by 2.3% to $3974.5 per ounce, while silver increased by 6.6% to $50.8 per ounce[17] Currency Movements - The US dollar index rose by 1.13% to 98.82, while the euro and yen fell by 1.01% and 2.42%, respectively[19] - The Chinese yuan depreciated slightly against the dollar, closing at 7.1232[19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, from September 26 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% to 1.775%. Considering the decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the fact that the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The interest - rate decline days in the bond market due to the second "tariff war" may be less than a week, and investors are advised to trade cautiously, maintaining the view that interest rates have a ceiling and a floor this year [10][15]. - After the release of a series of US data in October, including EIA crude oil inventory, consumer credit change, etc., the current main market trend still revolves around computing power and electricity. Monetary policy expectations in countries such as the US and Japan may extend the bubble period and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while increasing inflation expectations. The increase in US crude oil inventory and the weakness in consumer credit and consumer confidence may suppress oil prices and put the Fed in a "dilemma" in terms of interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Trading Opportunities Amid the Escalation of the Sino - US Trade War - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% on September 26 to 1.775%. During the week, factors such as policy announcements, PMI data, and central bank operations affected the yield fluctuations. The decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the sub - par manufacturing PMI suggest that the economic recovery foundation needs repair, and the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The second "tariff war" has led to a decline in interest rates, but the duration may be less than a week [10][11][15]. 3.1.2 Future Changes in US Treasury Yields After Data Release - The current market is sensitive to external disturbances. The main trend still focuses on computing power and electricity. The increase in US crude oil inventory, weak consumer credit, and low consumer confidence may suppress oil prices. The Fed is in a "dilemma" regarding interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from September 29 to October 10, 2025, the total net investment was - 7281 billion yuan. The money - market interest rates showed certain changes. The issuance and yields of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding fluctuations [28][30][33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices declined comprehensively, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose. The total trading area of commercial housing decreased. The VIX fear index led the gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the losses. The US Treasury yields declined overall, and the dollar index led the gains while the yen led the losses [51][52][65]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the week from September 29 to October 10, 2025, 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 825.28 billion yuan, including 566.38 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 159.69 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 99.20 billion yuan in new general bonds. The net financing amount was 386.37 billion yuan. Seven provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and no local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of such bonds has reached 19,649.46 billion yuan. The total early - redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 5.00 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [81][84][88]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The current stock of local government bonds is 53.49 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 771.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally increased [91][94][95]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - Relevant local government bond issuance plans are presented in the form of a chart, but specific numerical details are not further described in the text [97]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 90 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 771.59 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1,865.20 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 1,093.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,859.60 billion yuan compared to last week. By type, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 554.32 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 539.29 billion yuan [99][100]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds was 1.6622%, a decrease of 2.73bp; the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes was 2.2088%, a decrease of 3.95bp; and the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was 2.1900%, a decrease of 4.16bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 1,604.13 billion yuan. By rating, the trading volume of AAA - rated bonds was the largest, reaching 1,113.18 billion yuan [110]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds declined comprehensively. The yields of short - term financing and medium - term notes and corporate bonds generally declined, while the yields of urban investment bonds generally increased [111][113][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [120][121][126]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened [130][132][136]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds in each category are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, etc. Most of the highly - traded bonds are AAA - rated [142]. 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings of two issuers were upgraded this week, namely Xiangtan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Jiangyou Hongfei Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks [145].

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 中美贸易风波再起，美元高位震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率回落至 4.03%。美元指数涨 1.28%至 98.9，非美货币悉 数贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 1.06%，英镑跌 0.9%，日 元跌 2.52%，瑞郎跌 0.48%，雷亚尔跌 3.44%，新西兰元、澳 元、贬值约 2%，兰特、韩元、比索 泰铢跌超 1%，金价涨 3.4% 至 4018 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 21.66，现货商品指数收 跌，布油跌 2.8%至 64.48 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国政府在 10 月 1 日正式停摆，两党目前仍然未能就支出达成 一致，15 日军队发薪日成为关键时间节点，随着政府停摆时间 的延长，两党面临的压力都在增加，同时美国 9 月非农就业报 告和首申数据未能如期公布，经济也将受到拖累。中美贸易摩 擦再度升级，中国宣布对稀土出口进行管制后，美国总统特朗 普表示 11 月 1 日起要对中国商品再度加征 100%关税，即将到来 的 APEC 会 ...

美国密歇根大学10日发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值下降，跌至五个月以来低 点。 美国密歇根大学发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值，从9月的55.1降至55，触及5个 月来低点，为连续第三个月下滑。 分析指出，眼下高物价和就业前景低迷仍是美国民众最关心的问题，他们普遍认为短期内情况难以出现 实质性改善。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀预期仍维持在4.6％的高位，长期通胀预 期也稳定在3.7％，二者均远高于美联储2％的政策目标。美联储在9月的议息会议纪要中指出，预计关 税上调将推高今年通胀，到2026年还将进一步加剧通胀压力。与此同时，美国就业市场降温态势明显。 同一项调查显示，仍有近半数美国家庭预计明年就业形势将继续恶化。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 ...

Core Insights - The preliminary consumer confidence index in the U.S. for October has decreased to its lowest level in five months, falling from 55.1 in September to 55, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][3]. Economic Conditions - High prices and a bleak employment outlook remain the primary concerns for American consumers, with a general belief that substantial improvements are unlikely in the short term [3]. - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year remain high at 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations are stable at 3.7%, both significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated that anticipated tariff increases are expected to raise inflation this year and further exacerbate inflationary pressures by 2026 [3]. Employment Outlook - A significant portion of American households, nearly half, expect the job market to worsen in the coming year [3].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 11, gold prices reached a historical high, with multiple jewelry stores pricing gold ornaments around 1180 CNY per gram, and the highest price recorded at 1183 CNY per gram by Lao Miao [1] - Investment gold bars are priced between 933 to 939 CNY per gram, while silver is priced at 11.52 CNY per gram [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to global economic and political uncertainties, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan is 55.0, slightly above the expected 54.2 but down from 55.1 in September [2] - The one-year inflation expectation decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, while the five-year inflation expectation remained stable at 3.7% [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its tenth day, beginning to have a more severe impact on short-term economic outlooks, with signs of cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Current domestic gold price is 910 CNY per gram, with international gold priced at 4018 USD per ounce [3] - Platinum is priced at 1620 USD per ounce, palladium at 1450 USD per ounce, and silver at 50.25 USD per ounce [3] Group 4: Brand-Specific Gold Prices - Major jewelry brands have reported increases in gold prices, with Lao Miao at 1183 CNY per gram, and other brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook at 1180 CNY per gram [4] - The lowest price reported is from Caibai Jewelry at 1110 CNY per gram [4] Group 5: Precious Metal Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling price is 903 CNY per gram, with platinum at 344 CNY per gram and palladium at 305 CNY per gram [5] - Silver recycling price is 10.27 CNY per gram, while 14K and 18K gold are priced at 518 CNY and 668 CNY per gram respectively [5] Group 6: Hong Kong Gold Market - The current gold price in Hong Kong is reported at 37352 HKD per tael, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Liufu all pricing their gold ornaments at 44530 HKD per tael [6]