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美股高开低走,微软、Meta大涨
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-07-31 23:43
Market Overview - On July 31, U.S. stock markets opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining despite strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 330.30 points, a decrease of 0.74%, closing at 44,130.98 points; the S&P 500 dropped by 23.51 points, down 0.37%, at 6,339.39 points; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 7.23 points, down 0.03%, closing at 21,122.45 points [2] - In July, the S&P 500 rose by 2.17%, the Nasdaq increased by 3.70%, and the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.08% [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed lower, with the healthcare sector leading the decline at 2.9%; the real estate sector fell by 1.7%, and materials, financials, energy, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors all dropped over 1% [2] Company Earnings - Microsoft shares rose by 3.9%, with Q4 revenue reported at $76.44 billion, exceeding market expectations of $73.89 billion; Azure business revenue grew by 39%, and the company entered the "four trillion dollar club" [3] - Meta's stock surged by 11.2%, with Q3 revenue expected between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, significantly above analyst estimates of $46.2 billion, indicating a recovery in generative AI advertising [4] - Apple reported Q3 revenue of $94.04 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations of $89.53 billion; iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, and Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, both exceeding forecasts [4] - Amazon's Q2 revenue reached $167.7 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, significantly above the expected $162.09 billion; however, its stock fell approximately 6.8% in after-hours trading [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.8%, above the expected 2.7%; overall PCE increased to 2.6%, marking the second consecutive month of growth [5] - Labor cost index rose by 0.9%, and initial jobless claims were at 218,000, slightly below expectations [5] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming July non-farm payroll report and the deadline for tariff negotiations [5] Commodity Market - WTI September crude oil futures fell by $0.74, a decrease of approximately 1.06%, closing at $69.26 per barrel, ending a streak of increases [5] - Despite the drop, WTI saw a cumulative increase of over 8.47% in July, marking one of the strongest months of the year [5]
增长3%?美国二季度GDP被疑“虚假繁荣”
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 22:49
Core Viewpoint - The second quarter economic growth data in the U.S. is seen as overstated, masking underlying trends of economic slowdown, with various media outlets suggesting that the economy remains under pressure from tariffs and other policies [1][3][4]. Economic Growth Analysis - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, a significant rebound from a contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [1]. - The increase in GDP is primarily attributed to a decline in imports, as businesses opted to deplete existing inventories rather than increase imports, which positively impacted GDP calculations [3]. - The final sales to domestic purchasers, a key indicator of economic health, only grew by 1.2%, marking the weakest performance since Q4 2022 [3]. Investment and Consumer Spending - Business investment in equipment slowed from 23.7% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, indicating a cautious approach from companies amid economic uncertainty [3]. - Analysts suggest that the real economic growth rate for the first half of the year is only 1.25%, down from 2.3% in the same period last year, highlighting a significant slowdown [4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, reflecting caution due to economic uncertainties stemming from government policies [5]. - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more cautious outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity [5]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The upcoming week is critical for the U.S. and global economy, with significant economic data releases and corporate earnings reports expected [7]. - The core issue remains the ongoing tariff negotiations, which will significantly influence global trade dynamics in the second half of the year [8].
特朗普:利率应降到最低美联储决定:不降息
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-31 21:20
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1] - Since January's meeting, there has been ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell to lower interest rates, including threats of dismissal, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]
GTC泽汇:降息路径未明 黄金短期承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 14:01
值得注意的是,尽管黄金价格在利率决议公布后表现相对稳健,但鲍威尔随后在新闻发布会上缺乏明确 前瞻性的言论,削弱了市场对年内降息的信心。GTC泽汇表示,这种"数据依赖型"表态令投资者陷入观 望,黄金作为非息资产在高利率环境下吸引力受到一定抑制。 与此同时,部分市场分析人士认为,鲍威尔虽未正面释放降息信号,但讲话中仍透露出偏向宽松的语 气。例如,他提到长期通胀预期依旧锚定在2%目标附近,并认为关税带来的价格压力属于短期现象。 GTC泽汇认为,这可能意味着在通胀没有持续性走高的前提下,美联储仍具备政策调整的空间。 联邦储备主席鲍威尔近日重申,美联储在是否降息的问题上仍持观望态度,这一表态显著打击了市场对 9月宽松政策的预期,令黄金价格面临短期压力。GTC泽汇表示,当前的政策语境缺乏明确指引,使得 市场风险偏好与避险情绪之间出现反复,黄金走势因此呈现调整格局。 从市场预期变化来看,鲍威尔讲话后,降息概率有所回落,反映出投资者对短期宽松的信心削弱。GTC 泽汇表示,尽管如此,部分经济学家依旧认为9月存在政策调整的可能性,尤其是在未来经济数据若出 现走弱的情况下,委员会可能会选择先发制人的应对策略。 尽管本次会议如市场普 ...
美联储7月不降息,鲍威尔“鹰派”言论导致9月降息预期骤降|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-07-31 12:11
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].
9月降息悬了?鲍威尔给市场泼了冷水
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 09:17
Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with no guidance on a potential rate cut in September [1] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, primarily due to reduced consumer spending and weak exports, although business investment, particularly in equipment and intangible assets, has increased [3] - The housing market remains weak, with a long-term shortage in housing supply and insufficient construction rates [3] Employment Market - Powell expressed an optimistic view on the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is still outpacing inflation, providing support for consumption and economic stability [4] - There are no clear signs of weakness in the job market, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to rush into rate cuts [4] Inflation Concerns - Powell stated that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target is more than halfway complete, with service inflation slowing but goods inflation rising [6] - As of June, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7% [6] - Tariffs are identified as a new variable affecting inflation, with some goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs, leading to a slight increase in market inflation expectations [6] Tariff Details - Powell elaborated on tariffs, indicating that their impact on prices is slower than previously anticipated, and the current inflation data reflects only the beginning of tariff-induced inflation [7] - He emphasized the challenge of isolating the effects of tariffs from overall price changes, as prices are a composite result [7] - The Fed aims to ensure that price increases due to tariffs do not evolve into persistent inflation, balancing the timing of their actions to avoid unnecessary harm to the job market [7] Future Guidance - The Fed has not provided strong signals for the market, neither committing to a September rate cut nor closing the door on future cuts, opting instead to observe incoming data [10] - Powell highlighted the importance of upcoming data releases in determining the Fed's next steps, including inflation trends, the ongoing impact of tariffs, and labor market resilience [10] - The market is advised to remain patient and await clearer signals before making assumptions about potential rate cuts [10]
宏观点评报告:7月FOMC:降息渐近前的分歧-20250731
Huaxin Securities· 2025-07-31 08:33
7 月 FOMC:降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨,美联储公布 7 月议息结果,联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾,本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息,对利率决议投反对票,是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来,鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温,两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击,且就业市场有走弱风险,建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多,历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近(加息或降 息),因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号,关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温,关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限,且经济稳定降温的格局,二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%,但主要是关税抢进口停止后,净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致,2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...
7月美联储议息会议点评:7月FOMC:降息预期继续推迟
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-31 07:46
固定收益 | 固定收益点评 7 月 FOMC:降息预期继续推迟 证券研究报告 7 月美联储议息会议点评 7 月 FOMC:会议声明偏鸽,鲍威尔依旧谨慎 7 月美联储议息会议将联邦基金目标利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间,符合市 场预期,是去年 12 月降息之后,连续第 5 次按兵不动。 会议声明:偏鸽派,指出经济放缓风险。会议声明删除了"经济活动持续 稳健扩张",改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓";删除了"经济前景的 不确定性有所减弱";反映出相比于 6 月,委员会对经济前景的担忧上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表态:温和鹰派。一方面,对 9 月降息保持谨慎,表示 尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定,无法在下次会议上依据 6 月的点阵图(即 今年一共降息 50 bp)来做决策。 另一方面,强调对通胀担忧,表示商品通胀正在上升,关税正在推高一些 商品价格,核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税,合理的基本预期是关税对通 胀造成短期影响。 降息预期推迟,9 月降息的概率跌破 50%。根据美联储观察工具,FOMC 会议结束后,市场预期 9 月维持利率不变的概率升至 54.8%(1 天前为 35.4%);预期年内只有 1 ...
美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税,纽约期铜闪崩!美联储宣布,利率不变
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 00:57
美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税,COMEX铜期货价格暴跌近18% 早上好,先来看下重要消息。 据新华社消息,根据美国白宫网站30日发布的事实清单,美国总统特朗普当日签署公告,从8月1日起将对进口的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收 50%的关税。 周三纽约尾盘,COMEX铜期货价格一度下跌18.03%,报4.6115美元/磅,截至收盘跌17.7%。 特朗普称与韩国达成贸易协议,将对巴西征收50%关税 据央视新闻消息,当地时间7月30日,特朗普发文称,美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议,韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元,用于由美方 拥有并控制的投资项目。此外,韩国还将采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品,并承诺再投资一笔大额资金,用于其本国投资目的。该金 额将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示,美韩双方达成一致,美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时,美国不会被征收关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易,接受包括汽车、卡车和农产 品在内的美国产品。 当地时间7月30日,美国白宫表示,特朗普签署行政命令,对巴西加征40%关税,使总关税额达到50%。 白宫表示,对巴西产品征收 ...
市场分析:鲍威尔顶住白宫压力和内部异见 展现控通胀决心
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 00:16
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔顶住了白宫方面施加的压力,否定了两名有异议官员的降息主张,坚持认为 该央行需要继续警惕通胀风险。联邦公开市场委员会周三投票决定连续第五次维持利率不变,造成了30 多年来首次有两位美联储理事反对的景象。在美联储决议后的新闻发布会上,鲍威尔强调,考虑到围绕 总统唐纳德·特朗普关税及其经济影响的持续不确定性,美联储现在处于充分准备状态。他的表态谨慎 地保持了平衡,降低了人们对9月降息的预期,但并未完全排除降息的可能性。这位美联储主席指出,9 月会议前会出炉几份经济报告,包括两个月的就业和通胀数据。他说:"我们的9月会议将在决议时考虑 这些信息以及我们会获得的所有其他信息。"投资者原本渴盼见到美联储下次会议可能降息的信号。他 们对鲍威尔的言论作出反应,抛售美国国债,并将美元汇率推升至5月以来的最高水平。美国标普500指 数下跌。利率 期货走势显示,交易员认为的9月降息可能性从美联储决议前的60%左右降至40%左右。 ...