中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-02-27 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 2、央行发布《关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知》，支持境内银行 顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。引入逆周期调 节机制，《通知》明确将境内银行人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额与其资本水平、资金实力相 挂钩，通过跨境业务调节参数、宏观审慎调节参数进行调节。参数初始值的设置统筹兼顾业务 发展和风险防范的需要。 3、春节假期后人民币对美元汇率快速升值，在岸、离岸重返三年前高位。2 月 25 日至 26 日， 人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破 6.87、6.84 关口，离岸人民币于 26 日最高 触及 6.82665，创 2023 年 4 月以来新高。尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率 走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好，预 计人民币年度走势维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].

（来源：北京商报） 金银期货价格波动剧烈，金银股的走势也随之大起大落，投资者追涨杀跌此类股票的风险大幅高于普通 股。对于这类很难预测短期准确走势的交易品种，投资者宜抓大放小，把握住长期大趋势波动方向，不 要理会短期价格波动，以长期价值投资的心态去长期持股。 金银期货价格近期波动剧烈，连带金银类股票也呈现出大起大落的走势。与普通股票相比，投资者在金 银股上进行追涨杀跌操作，所面临的风险大幅增加。当金银股价格一路飙升时，部分投资者容易被短期 的高额利润所诱惑，盲目跟风追涨，试图短期获得快速盈利。一旦市场风向转变，金银股价格急转直 下，追涨的投资者往往来不及反应就被套牢其中，损失惨重。 对于金银股此类难以精准预测短期走势的交易品种，投资者应采取抓大放小的策略，把握住长期大趋势 的波动方向，过滤掉短期价格波动。金银作为具有特殊属性的资产，其长期走势往往受到宏观经济环 境、全球政治局势、货币政策等重大因素影响。所以，投资者如果能够对金银价格的长期波动趋势做出 理性判断，应该把握住长期趋势，而不去关心短期波动，这样就能在投资中占据主动地位。 同时，投资者也要尽可能忽视短期价格波动。短期价格的涨跌受到市场情绪、短期供需关系 ...

金银期货价格波动剧烈，金银股的走势也随之大起大落，投资者追涨杀跌此类股票的风险大幅高于普通 股。对于这类很难预测短期准确走势的交易品种，投资者宜抓大放小，把握住长期大趋势波动方向，不 要理会短期价格波动，以长期价值投资的心态去长期持股。 金银期货价格近期波动剧烈，连带金银类股票也呈现出大起大落的走势。与普通股票相比，投资者在金 银股上进行追涨杀跌操作，所面临的风险大幅增加。当金银股价格一路飙升时，部分投资者容易被短期 的高额利润所诱惑，盲目跟风追涨，试图短期获得快速盈利。一旦市场风向转变，金银股价格急转直 下，追涨的投资者往往来不及反应就被套牢其中，损失惨重。 而在金银股价格下跌时，一些投资者又会被恐惧情绪所左右，匆忙杀跌。他们害怕股价会进一步走低， 导致持仓大幅缩水，于是选择在低位抛售股票。然而，这种杀跌行为往往使他们错失了后续价格反弹的 机会。金银市场受多种因素影响，短期价格波动频繁且难以准确预测，投资者追涨杀跌的操作，不仅会 造成直接财产损失，还会严重影响投资心态，做出错误的投资决策。 对于金银股此类难以精准预测短期走势的交易品种，投资者应采取抓大放小的策略，把握住长期大趋势 的波动方向，过滤掉短期价格 ...

2月4日早间，国际金价重回5000美元/盎司关口。截至北京时间2月4日9时45分，伦敦现货黄金最新价报 5031.48美元/盎司，交易日内涨幅约1.8%。 受风险偏好回落、美元指数走软等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格持续反弹。在历经两日断崖式下跌 后，2月3日现货黄金上演深V反弹，重新站上4900美元/盎司关口，收复前一日所有跌幅，创下2009年以 来最大单日涨幅。在随后的隔夜交易中，金银期货价格继续反弹，金价重回5000美元/盎司上方。 国际金价的反弹直接传导至国内终端市场。2月4日，国内多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的境内足金首饰价 格有所上调，周生生报价1600元/克，较前一日1498元/克涨102元；周大福报价1566元/克，较前一日 1495元/克涨71元；老凤祥报价1576元/克，较前一日1518元/克涨58元；老庙黄金报价1571元/克。 此次金价重返5000美元关口，是继近期巨震后的强势反弹。此前，国际金价曾开启持续上涨模式，1月 26日金价首次站上5000美元/盎司，年内涨幅一度接近18%。但涨势未能持续，1月31日至2月2日，金价 迎来断崖式下跌，1月31日单日跌幅超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅 ...

瑞士宝盛新一代研究主管Carsten Menke表示，近期金银市场的走势主要是由资金流而非基本面驱动 的。他补充说，过去几周期货市场的投机活动有所加强，尤其是在白银市场以及上海期货交易所。他表 示，中国宣布出口管制，这似乎是进一步助长白银市场看涨情绪的一个基本面因素。他补充说，话虽如 此，瑞士宝盛认为，这些管制措施与中国政府对稀土的管制非常相似，而对稀土的管制并未长期阻碍出 货。与此同时，白银市场似乎忽视了中国太阳能行业的发展，该行业已有三家制造商宣布出于成本原因 将放弃使用白银。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices have significantly declined due to the CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements for trading these metals, leading to profit-taking by investors before the new rules took effect, causing international metal prices to drop multiple times, with gold prices falling below $4500 per ounce [2][7] - The recent surge in silver prices, which have increased over 185% this year, is attributed to speculative inflows and supply disruptions, with analysts noting a high demand premium for physical silver [3][8] - A rumor regarding a major bank's short position in silver futures led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices, with silver dropping over 10% and platinum and palladium experiencing declines of around 15% [9] Group 2: Fund and Stock Market Developments - The National Investment Silver LOF has seen a significant drop in premium from nearly 70% to below 30% after two consecutive days of trading halts, highlighting issues of product innovation and premium risks in the public fund market [2][7] - The stock of *ST Dongyi is set to resume trading with an adjusted opening reference price of 8.14 yuan per share following a capital reserve increase [2][7] - Several high-performing stocks have issued risk warnings, indicating potential rapid declines in stock prices due to deviations from fundamental values [4][9] Group 3: Regulatory and Corporate Governance - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for reforms in state-owned enterprises to enhance competitiveness and governance structures [3][8] - *ST Panda is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations, facing delisting risks if conditions are not met by 2025 [4][9] Group 4: Banking and Financial Issues - A case involving the misappropriation of over 10 million yuan by a bank employee has raised questions about the accountability of the bank, with ongoing civil litigation initiated by affected depositors [10] - The bond futures market has seen a decline across the board, attributed to inflation expectations and rising yields on government bonds in China, Japan, and the U.S. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are expected to continue oscillating, and treasury bond futures may further adjust due to lack of incremental benefits. In the agricultural products market, soybeans face supply pressure but may have a phased rebound, while sugar shows different trends in the international and domestic markets. Each industry is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic situations [20][24][28]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the influence of factors such as the decline of US stocks on Friday night and the uncertainty of the AI bubble in the US stock market, the market is expected to continue oscillating. Trading strategies include high - selling and low - buying in a single - side approach, waiting for the expansion of basis for arbitrage, and using the double - buying strategy for options [20][23][24]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Although the economic data in November was not as expected, the bond market was more influenced by expectations. The end - of - year institutional behavior amplified price fluctuations. It is recommended to stop loss on existing long positions in the TL contract and try short - selling medium - and short - term contracts. Arbitrage requires waiting and seeing [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, but there may be a phased rebound. Domestic soybean meal has price support. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, reduce the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [28][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is bottom - oscillating, while the domestic sugar price is weakening. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure is gradually alleviating, and the domestic sugar market is affected by factors such as new - season production and import policies. The trading strategy includes short - term short - selling in a single - side approach, long - January and short - May for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall oil market is oscillating weakly. The Malaysian palm oil may accumulate inventory, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply and demand situations. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying for a single - side approach and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic corn price is affected by factors such as increased supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 03 contract, close short positions, and establish long positions for the 07 contract in a single - side approach, close the 3 - 7 corn reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [38][41][42]. - **Live Hogs**: The overall supply pressure of live hogs still exists, and the pig price is expected to face pressure. It is recommended to use a short - selling strategy in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [42][43][44]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract has room for decline. It is recommended to short the 03 contract lightly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [45][47]. - **Eggs**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to wait and see for the 1 - month contract and consider establishing long positions for the far - month contracts in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [47][50][51]. - **Apples**: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The 5 - month contract is expected to have limited room for a sharp decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the previous low point in a single - side approach, long - January and short - October for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new - cotton sales are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to establish long positions on dips in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [55][58]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel export management scope is expanded, and the steel price is oscillating. The steel production and demand are affected by seasonal factors, and the cost has certain support. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating strategy in a single - side approach, short the hot - rolled coal ratio and the hot - rolled rebar spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke are oscillating at the bottom. The Mongolian coal supply may increase, but the downstream winter - storage demand and coal mine production reduction at the end of the year may affect the supply - demand relationship. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [62][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [64][65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloys are affected by cost support and demand suppression. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to oscillate at the bottom in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [67][68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The macro - uncertainty increases, and the price fluctuations of gold and silver are amplified. It is recommended to hold long positions for the Shanghai gold and silver contracts in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [70][71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: After the low - valuation rebound, the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium intensify. The platinum has supply - demand support, and the palladium is more affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to take a long - buying strategy on dips in a single - side approach, long - platinum and short - palladium for arbitrage [74][75][76]. - **Copper**: After a full correction, it is recommended to buy. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and AI - related news. It is recommended to re - establish long positions after a full correction in a single - side approach [78][79]. - **Alumina**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the alumina price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][84][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: With the release of macro - data this week, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. The aluminum market is affected by macro - expectations and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to oscillate after a correction in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [86][87][88]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloys**: Due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations this week, it is recommended to pay attention to the cross - variety spread. It is recommended to oscillate with the aluminum price in a single - side approach, do the AD - AL spread convergence during the aluminum price correction for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [88][89][90]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to the LME zinc price. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and overseas news. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously in a single - side approach, buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc for arbitrage, and buy deep out - of - the - money put options [91][92][93]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to pay attention to the support effectiveness of the domestic secondary lead smelting cost. The lead market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and overseas strikes. It is recommended to close some short - term short positions and hold some positions in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [94][96][97]. - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The nickel market has a supply surplus, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [99][100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and export policies. It is recommended to decline in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage [101][102][103]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It may decline in the future. The industrial silicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and the "anti - involution" of polysilicon. It is recommended to short on rallies [104][105]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and industry self - discipline. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips in a single - side approach, long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [105][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The mine restart is postponed again, and the lithium price is rising strongly. The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and industry policies. It is recommended to operate cautiously at a high level in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 2605 contract [109][110][111]. - **Tin**: The AI bubble re - ignites, and the Indonesian export recovers, causing the tin price to decline under pressure. The tin market is affected by factors such as AI - related news and Indonesian exports. It is recommended to oscillate weakly at a high level in a single - side approach, wait and see for options [111][112][113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the first - week opening price of MSK. The container shipping market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and price expectations. It is recommended to close some long positions and hold some for the EC2602 contract in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical expectation cools down, and the oil price continues to find the bottom. The crude oil market is affected by factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in a single - side approach, consider the neutral gasoline and weak diesel in China for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [118][119][120]. - **Asphalt**: The winter - storage support is limited, and the cost disturbance increases. The asphalt market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and raw material prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [122][123][124]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is affected by device changes. The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and geopolitical events. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - crack the low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [125][126][127]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price is in a downward trend, and the HH price continues to correct. The natural gas market is affected by factors such as weather and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to buy the HH2602 contract in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [127][128][132]. - **LPG**: The supply increases slightly, and the demand elasticity is insufficient. The LPG market is affected by factors such as international prices and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [130][131][133]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX operation rate remains high, and the PTA has a stock - accumulation expectation. The PX & PTA market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and oil prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - PX and long - PTA for the 3 - 5 & 1 - 5 contracts for arbitrage, and use the double - selling option strategy [133][134][135]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand is loose, and the styrene basis weakens. The BZ & EB market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and oil prices. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, short - pure benzene and long - styrene for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [137][138][139]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory has a de - stocking pressure. The ethylene glycol market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and downstream production. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [141][142][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and downstream consumption. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. The bottle - chip market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and new - device production. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148][149]. - **Propylene**: The operation rate increases, and the inventory is at a high level. The propylene market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and raw material prices. It is recommended to short on rallies in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [150][151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The apparent demand for PE and PP increases. The plastic PP market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and macro - economic data. It is recommended to hold long positions for the L 2605 contract in a single - side approach and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152][154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The caustic soda market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and production costs. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [155][156][157]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and export policies. It is recommended to wait and see in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [158][159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract change. The soda ash market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and new - capacity production. It is recommended to keep the price stable this week in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [160][161][162]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillates. The glass market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and real - estate data. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates at the bottom. The methanol market is affected by factors such as international device operation rates and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach [166][169]. - **Urea**: The trading is stable, and the futures oscillate weakly. The urea market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and international prices. It is recommended to oscillate in a single - side approach [170][173][174]. - **Pulp**: There is a weak reality and a strong expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the warehouse - receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp market is affected

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of precious metals shows narrow - range fluctuations, while the long - term bull market remains unchanged. The Fed's possible December interest rate cut and the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are expected to be positive for precious metal prices [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metal Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver showed narrow - range fluctuations. The international gold price was around $4000 per ounce, and the silver price was around $50 per ounce [3]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - On November 20, after the release of the US September non - farm report, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped to less than 40%, leading to a stock market crash and a decline in precious metal prices. However, considering the rising unemployment rate, the dovish stance of the voting committee, and the possible impact of a continuous stock market crash, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen from less than 40% to over 70%. The Fed's possible interest rate cut in December is positive for precious metal prices [3][5]. Russia - Ukraine Conflict - The US has drafted a "28 - point plan" to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which includes multiple aspects such as cease - fire agreements, post - war reconstruction, and asset investment. Although it is not certain whether this plan will be accepted, it seems that the situation is moving towards peace, and precious metal prices are expected to benefit [6][7].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The epic bull market of gold and silver experienced its first significant correction last Friday, and market divergence has significantly increased [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions, the potential de - escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible Fed rate cut in October (already priced in by the market) have led to a decline in gold and silver prices [2][4]. - The silver shortage in the London market has started to ease, prompting some investors to take profits [4]. - In the long run, the bullish fundamentals of gold and silver have not reversed, but in the short term, there will be an oscillation and consolidation period to digest profit - taking and short - term negative factors [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Market Changes Sino - US Trade Relations - Trump's latest statement on Sino - US trade negotiations shows a willingness to reach an agreement, with a possible further extension of the tariff suspension period, reducing market risk aversion [2]. Geopolitical Situation - After the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict, the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of de - escalation, further weakening market risk aversion [2]. Fed Policy - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months, but the market has already priced this in [4]. Market Supply - The previous historical silver shortage in the London market has started to ease [4].