本报记者 张芗逸 7月16日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。会议指出，做强国内 大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 今年以来，我国将做强国内大循环摆在更加重要的位置，综合施策扩大内需、促进生产、畅通循环，以中国经济的稳定性 和确定性来应对外部的不确定性。 内需潜力释放 今年以来，我国加大力度实施更加积极的宏观政策，以消费品以旧换新、工业企业设备更新等举措为抓手，做强国内大循 环。 以消费品以旧换新为例，据国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别国债资金支持 力度为3000亿元，前2批共1620亿元资金已按计划分别于1月、4月下达。 从政策成效来看，国家发展改革委数据显示，今年以来以旧换新相关商品销售额超过1.4万亿元。 随着政策持续显效，发挥稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生作用，内需成为上半年经济增长的主动力。国家统计局最新数 据显示，上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对《证券日报》记者表示，此次会议将做强国内大循环明确定位为"推动经济行稳致远的战 略之举"，凸显 ...

Group 1 - Concerns about significant adjustments in the real estate market in the second half of the year are unnecessary [2][3] - Economic growth data for the first half of the year exceeded expectations, but challenges remain for the second half, including external demand pressure and fluctuations in real estate [3][6] - The impact of the real estate sector on the overall macro economy has significantly decreased compared to previous years [3][6] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate over one trillion yuan in consumption in the second half of the year [4][5] - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [5] - The remaining funds in the second half have the potential to further stimulate consumption due to expanded coverage and local government support [5][6] Group 3 - The current low price phenomenon is related to excessive competition, and measures to address this issue are expected to improve pricing conditions [7][8] - Concerns about a drastic decline in exports are unfounded, as policies and the resilience of exports can maintain the foreign trade balance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the old vehicle replacement subsidy policy has significantly boosted the demand for heavy trucks in China, leading to a notable increase in sales and market activity in the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's heavy truck market recorded cumulative sales of approximately 539,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7% [1]. - In June alone, heavy truck sales reached 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 37% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [1]. - The demand for heavy trucks has remained strong despite the traditional off-peak season, driven by effective policies promoting vehicle scrappage and replacement [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The new policy released in March 2023 aims to accelerate the scrapping of old, high-emission trucks and provides financial subsidies for their replacement [2]. - The updated policy expands the scope of eligible vehicles for subsidies to include natural gas heavy trucks, which is expected to significantly benefit the natural gas heavy truck market [2]. - The policy also allows for subsidies for newly purchased operational trucks if the old ones are scrapped within a year, further stimulating demand [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The heavy truck market is experiencing a structural shift towards new energy vehicles, with significant growth in sales of electric heavy trucks, which reached 18,000 units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 158% [2]. - Companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation are focusing on enhancing product competitiveness and technological innovation to capitalize on policy benefits [4]. - The competitive landscape in the commercial vehicle sector is intensifying, with companies facing challenges in strategic management and operational efficiency due to the transition to new energy [4]. Group 4: Company Performance - Foton Motor reported a profit of approximately 777 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 87.5%, attributed to a focus on commercial vehicle development and international expansion [6]. - Weichai Power is also enhancing its performance in the new energy sector, with plans to launch a full range of new energy battery products by the end of 2024 [6].

Core Insights - The postal industry in China experienced a year-on-year growth of 16.9% in express delivery volume in the first half of the year, reaching a total of 1,045.1 billion items [8] - The express delivery volume specifically increased by 19.3%, totaling 956.4 billion items [8] - The growth in express delivery services is particularly notable in the central and western regions, with provinces like Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang seeing over 35% growth in express delivery volume [3][5] Group 1: Industry Growth and Regional Development - The express delivery business in the central and western regions accounted for a larger share of the national total, increasing by 1.4% compared to the same period last year [3] - Key urban clusters such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and central regions have seen upgrades in postal and express delivery infrastructure [8] - The coverage rate of village-level delivery logistics service stations in Xinjiang is nearly 90% [8] Group 2: Agricultural and E-commerce Impact - The establishment of cold chain logistics facilities and local agricultural product distribution bases has significantly boosted the delivery volume of local agricultural products, with 55.18 million items delivered in the first half of the year, contributing to an agricultural output value of 6.755 billion yuan [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven a substantial increase in e-commerce orders in rural areas, with overall orders growing by over 50% [14] - The logistics demand has led express delivery companies to offer integrated supply chain solutions and diverse end-delivery services, enhancing customer convenience [14][16] Group 3: Economic Support and Consumer Behavior - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a supportive role to actively driving the flow of regional resources, contributing to balanced development between eastern and western regions [7] - The industry has effectively supported the expansion of domestic demand strategies and the release of online consumption needs, reflecting its value in promoting production and consumption [10] - Recent economic measures have accelerated the growth of the express delivery market, particularly following a significant increase in consumer spending in March [12]

本报记者 吴晓璐 7月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年上半年，国内生产总值660536亿元，同比增长5.3%。 外资普遍认为，在出口前置、"以旧换新"等政策支持下，上半年中国经济展现出较强韧性。 展望下半年，外资认为，国内政策仍有空间，将为经济提供支撑。在政策支持以及低估值下，中国股票依旧是外资重点配 置之一。 上半年加仓A股 自去年以来，外资对中国关注度持续回升。"去年9月份起，中国宏观调控、行业监管和对外政策均出现积极变化，这些变 化增强了外资对中国市场的关注度，外资开始重新评估中国资产，乐观度和关注度都有恢复。"近日，贝莱德首席中国经济学 家宋宇在贝莱德中国2025年中投资展望分享会上表示。 汇丰环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，中国经济韧性仍在，资本市场改革、对外开放继续推进，科技创新也 在不停加速。很多国际投资人，尤其是欧美投资人，他们对中国资产的兴趣持续提升。 下半年政策有望持续发力 在我国上半年经济数据披露之后，瑞银投资银行高级中国经济学家张宁表示，上半年GDP增长得益于出口韧性强、低基数 下以旧换新补贴的刺激、政府债券提前发行以及计划中的政策支持措施落地。同时，鉴于上半年出口 ...

Group 1 - The core observation indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for June, with improvements noted in automotive and furniture retail [1][20]. - The report highlights that the total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous month's growth of 6.4% [12][20]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving economic sentiment, including automotive, consumer electronics, home appliances, furniture, and leisure food [21]. Group 2 - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both showed upward trends, indicating a positive outlook [5]. - The production of smartphones turned positive year-on-year in June, and the production of integrated circuits also saw an increase in the rolling three-month year-on-year growth rate [3][5]. - The report notes that the prices of DDR4 DRAM memory increased on a month-on-month basis, while the prices of NAND and DRAM indices also rose [5][6]. Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the production of solar cells and industrial robots showed an expanding year-on-year growth rate in June, indicating a recovery in these areas [3][5]. - The sales of major engineering machinery companies improved year-on-year in June, reflecting a positive trend in the construction and machinery sectors [3][5]. - The report mentions that the price index for photovoltaic products increased on a week-on-week basis, suggesting a strengthening market for solar energy products [6][10]. Group 4 - The report indicates that essential consumer goods showed mixed performance, with staple food categories benefiting from rigid demand, while demand for beverages and tobacco products weakened [20]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to stimulate growth in home appliances and communication equipment, maintaining double-digit growth rates in these categories [20]. - The report highlights that the retail growth rates for gold and silver jewelry, daily necessities, and cultural office supplies have slowed down but still maintain relatively high growth [20].

Group 1: Furniture Industry - The furniture industry is experiencing a recovery supported by the demand from the existing housing market and the ongoing "old-for-new" national subsidy policy [1] - Leading companies possess comprehensive channel layouts, stronger brand power, and mature marketing systems, while smaller firms may face "traffic bottlenecks," amplifying the advantages of top players [1] Group 2: Personal Care Industry - The demand in the personal care sector is relatively inelastic, with companies focusing on product innovation and precise consumer targeting, while the integration of online and offline channels is becoming a trend [1] Group 3: Export Chain - Starting from Q4 2024, the performance of the export chain will be affected by a weakening low base effect, with internal growth becoming more significant, depending on downstream industry demand and the company's efforts in category, channel, and customer expansion [1] - Increased tariff disruptions are expected, benefiting companies with overseas production capacity, leading to further excess revenue performance [1] Group 4: Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is being intensified, and major automotive companies are set to launch significant new products in early 2025, with inventory replenishment at the channel level to meet peak season demand, resulting in an upward trend in performance [1] - In the medium to long term, the competitive advantages of leading brands are expected to expand due to new national standards and manufacturing capacity constraints, leading to a continued concentration in the market [1] Group 5: Millet and Stationery - The millet market has a broad outlook, with traditional stationery moving towards cultural and creative products, while the pan-entertainment toy market is expected to grow faster due to its entertainment and interactivity [2] Group 6: Smart Glasses - The smart glasses industry is witnessing an explosion in trends, with major manufacturers accelerating the integration of products with AI models, and the first generation of products has been released, with others expected to launch by 2025 [2] Group 7: Paper Industry - A turning point in cost has been confirmed, with a positive outlook for the profitability of specialty paper compared to bulk paper, as profitability is expected to improve starting Q4 2024 [2] - Price increases for paper are anticipated, with pulp prices peaking in Q1 2025, leading to improved profit margins [2] Group 8: Packaging Industry - The packaging industry is currently stable, with an expected improvement in profitability driven by optimized market structure, as capital expenditure is slowing down and companies focus on efficiency and shareholder returns [2] - As the industry enters a competitive phase in the existing market, mergers and acquisitions among leading companies are accelerating, which may lead to an upward shift in the overall profitability of the industry [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below market expectations of 5.6% [4]. - The online retail sales growth slowed down due to the preemptive timing of the 618 shopping festival, while offline retail continues to show stable growth [4]. - The service consumption sector is experiencing rapid growth, supported by government policies, although restaurant revenue growth has declined [4]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to show effectiveness, with basic necessities demonstrating resilience, while gold and silver sales growth has slowed down due to seasonal factors [4]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming summer tourism season and the third round of trade-in subsidies will further stimulate domestic consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - June retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales also grew by 4.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 2.2 percentage points [4]. Online and Offline Consumption - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 increased by 8.5%, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3.5 percentage points [4]. - The online penetration rate remained stable at 26.8% in June, unchanged from the previous year [4]. Service Consumption - The service sector's production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year in June, with retail sales in the service sector growing by 5.3% [4]. - Restaurant revenue in June was 470.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% due to seasonal factors [4]. Policy Impact - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate spending, with urban retail sales reaching 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. - The trade-in policy has led to significant sales in consumer electronics, with related sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan by late June [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, particularly companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, as well as quality jewelry brands benefiting from gold demand recovery [4]. - It also highlights opportunities in the travel industry and retail sectors that enhance in-store experiences [4].

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in Q2 at 5.2% compared to 5.4% in Q1, indicating a stable economic performance amidst global economic uncertainties [1][9] - The contribution of consumption, investment, and net exports to growth improved in Q2, with consumption at 52.3%, investment at 24.7%, and net exports at 23.0%, highlighting a better balance between internal and external demand [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth accelerating to 6.8% [2][16] - Manufacturing output grew by 7.0%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing showing significant growth rates of 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [2][16] - New energy vehicles and industrial robots saw production increases of 36.2% and 35.6%, respectively, reflecting a trend towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing [2][16] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q2 [3][16] - The "old-for-new" policy positively impacted sales in categories such as home appliances and communication equipment, with growth rates of 30.7% and 24.1%, respectively [3][16] - Service consumption also showed recovery, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% [3][16] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5% [5][16] - Infrastructure investment rose by 4.6%, while private investment saw a decline of 0.6%, although other private investments excluding real estate grew by 5.1% [5][16] - Investment growth volatility is attributed to fluctuating upstream material prices and reduced capacity utilization in traditional sectors [5][16] Real Estate Market - New housing sales in the first half of 2025 decreased by 3.5% in area and 5.5% in value, although the decline rate narrowed compared to the previous year [6][16] - In June, housing prices in major cities showed a downward trend, with new residential prices in first-tier cities decreasing by 0.3% [6][16] - The government is expected to implement stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, with policies aimed at boosting demand and supporting housing construction [6][16] Foreign Trade - Total goods imports and exports increased by 2.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with exports rising by 7.2% and imports falling by 2.7% [7][16] - The export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5%, accounting for 60.0% of total exports, indicating a diversification of trade partners and resilience in external trade [7][16] - Trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 4.7%, providing a buffer against fluctuations in traditional markets [7][16] Financial Sector - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan [8][16] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating improved liquidity and funding support for the real economy [8][16] - The structure of credit also showed positive changes, with stable growth in household loans and a rebound in medium to long-term loans for enterprises [8][16]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and strategies of Meikailong, a leading player in the home furnishing and appliance retail industry in China. Key Points and Arguments Marketing and Promotions - The company invested heavily in marketing resources during major events, including significant advertising placements in airports, leveraging government policies and mainstream media to enhance brand visibility [1] - The company launched a subsidy program for merchants in Guangzhou, providing six supportive policies, including unified cash register systems and expedited refunds [1] Sales Performance - In Q1, the overall Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, indicating a positive consumer sentiment in the home furnishing sector [2] - The "old-for-new" program generated a total of 4.3 billion yuan in orders, with government subsidies contributing 700 million yuan, accounting for about 16.2% of the total [2] Regional Insights - Shanghai remains a stronghold for Meikailong, with effective implementation of local subsidy policies [3] - Jiangsu and Chongqing have shown rapid responses to subsidy policies this year, with higher participation rates compared to last year [3] Challenges and Adjustments - Hubei's subsidy policies have tightened this year, leading to reduced consumer participation compared to last year [4] - The company anticipates a more subdued impact from stimulus measures compared to Q4 of the previous year but remains optimistic about overall consumer spending [4] Merchant Participation - The participation rate of merchants in the "old-for-new" program is expected to be around 20-30% without the inclusion of individual merchants, compared to nearly 50% if they were included [5] - The company aims to maintain a similar number of participating stores as last year, with around 240 stores involved [12] Future Expectations - The company is preparing for upcoming promotional events like 618 and Double 11, with early marketing strategies already in place [9] - The management expects to improve rental rates and occupancy, targeting a rental increase of over 5% [16] Financial Performance - The self-operated segment contributes 68.5% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 58.3%, showing slight improvement from the previous year [21] - The company anticipates a more optimistic financial outlook compared to the previous two years, with reduced financing costs and improved debt management [24] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end smart appliance offerings, with over 150 high-end appliance stores already established [17] - Future plans include diversifying product categories to reduce reliance on traditional building materials, aiming for a 60% share of new categories [19] Management and Governance - The new chairman is familiar with the company and its operations, having been involved in previous acquisition discussions, which is expected to positively influence strategic direction [28] Conclusion - The overall sentiment from the call indicates a cautious optimism about the company's performance in the coming quarters, driven by effective marketing strategies, government support, and a focus on expanding product offerings [24][27]