今年以来，特朗普2.0关税政策对全球经贸格局的影响日益显现。面对美国对等关税等附加关税的冲击，中央财经大学国 际经济与贸易学院院长、教授张晓涛建议，中国出口企业在市场多元化拓展中，应重视东盟、非洲和拉美等新兴市场以 及不发达国家市场的开拓与深耕，同时注重提升产品质量和加大品牌建设力度；出口转内销要突破运营模式调整、渠道 与团队重建及知识产权风险规避等多重障碍；实施海外投资，实现产能本地化，企业则要在运营交付能力、组织架构与 团队管理、成本管控等方面达到更高要求，以规避运营成本攀升、本地化合规不足、产业集群依赖等风险。 张晓涛认为，当前全球经贸规则格局正从二战后的"秩序法则"转向单边主义的"实力法则"。中国企业需理性评估自身在 产业链中所处的位置，结合形势审慎决策，在市场布局、运营模式与国际化战略上进行系统性、整体考量调整，以应对 这场历史性、趋势性的经贸规则与经贸格局变革。 瀚闻资讯分析师杨凤杰指出，在全球经贸规则重塑背景下，地缘政治驱动、规则碎片化加速、安全韧性优先等非理性特 征主导全球贸易格局，成为企业开展国际贸易不确定性的最大来源，也倒逼中国企业重塑全球化竞争逻辑。从化解路径 上看，企业转内销需应对产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, marked by the breakdown of the US-India alliance and the thawing of US-Russia relations, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: US-India Relations - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports, signaling a deterioration in US-India relations [1]. - Modi's visit to China, after seven years, is seen as an attempt to pressure the US regarding tariff negotiations, highlighting the unraveling of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy [3]. - The initial optimism for a trade agreement between the US and India has dissipated due to harsh tariff conditions imposed by the US, leading to a breakdown in negotiations [3]. Group 2: US-Europe Relations - The US has sidelined Europe in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, with the US and Russia planning a bilateral meeting without European involvement [5]. - Trump's administration has expressed dissatisfaction with European military spending and trade deficits, viewing European contributions as inadequate [7]. - The EU's trade surplus with the US amounted to €198.2 billion last year, which contradicts Trump's "America First" policy [7]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Shifts - The rise of populism and extreme right-wing movements in Western societies, along with increasing unilateralism, is contributing to a fragmented international order [9]. - Trump's tariffs and withdrawal from international agreements are exacerbating global tensions and signaling a potential shift towards a multipolar world [9][11]. - The outcome of these geopolitical changes presents both challenges and opportunities for China, as the US may seek to consolidate its alliances against China while also facing potential discontent from its allies [11].

距离中美贸易战关键"停火协议"到期仅剩最后一天时，特朗普再次展现其标志性的施压战术，他不仅公开喊话要求中国"加倍速购"美国大豆，更祭出新招 ——对本国芯片巨头英伟达等企业征收高达15%的"出口特权费"。 不过如今，这场由美方单方面挑起的贸易博弈，正以意想不到的方式反噬其身。 特朗普对华强索农产品之举绝非一时兴起，其背后是美国农业州的政治压力与滞销大豆堆积如山的现实窘境。 特朗普的核心票仓深植于农业州和大豆种植带，但贸易战直接导致美国大豆对华出口从2017年的3250万吨高峰腰斩。 美国农业部2023年报告显示大豆库存消费比已逼近历史高位，豆农仓库难以消化积压库存。 而面对困局，中国早已未雨绸缪实现进口多元化，南美国家迅速填补空缺，巴西更在2023年超越美国成为中国最大大豆供应国。 更具讽刺意味的是，特朗普的贸易大棒这次竟转向了自家高科技产业。 近期被曝光的政策要求英伟达等芯片企业在向中国出口高端人工智能芯片时，向美国政府额外支付高达销售额15%的"出口协调费"，这种针对本土企业 的"收割"在全球贸易史上实属罕见。 从商业逻辑看，英伟达等企业支付高额费用实属无奈，中国占英伟达数据中心芯片收入的五分之一以上，是其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by People's Daily marks the conclusion of the US-China tariff war, highlighting China's victory in this prolonged economic conflict, while Trump's designation of a successor adds complexity to the situation [1][9]. Economic Performance Comparison - During Trump's administration, the tariff war was initiated in 2018 to address trade deficits and promote US manufacturing, aiming for concessions from China [3]. - China's economy has shown robust growth, maintaining a growth rate of [X]% in the first half of the year, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment in emerging industries [3]. - In contrast, the US economy is experiencing stagnation, with a growth rate of only [X]%, facing high inflation and increased living costs for citizens [4]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The high tariff policies have led to widespread dissatisfaction among other countries, prompting them to reduce reliance on the US market and seek trade partnerships elsewhere [6]. - The US economy is caught in a vicious cycle due to high tariffs, which increase import prices and contribute to inflation, leading to tighter monetary policies that suppress investment and consumption [6]. Strategic Advantages - China holds significant advantages in key sectors, such as the rare earth industry, where it is the largest producer and exporter, providing a strong foundation for its industrial development and international market influence [7]. Political Implications - Trump's early designation of Vice President Vance as his successor suggests an awareness of the negative impact of the tariff war's failure on his party's future, aiming to maintain his policy agenda [9]. - The announcement from People's Daily reinforces China's successful resistance against US trade aggression, indicating that protectionism and unilateralism are contrary to the trends of economic globalization [9].

Core Points - The recent international situation has seen 11 countries unite against the U.S., particularly in response to aggressive tariff policies imposed by the U.S. government [1][3] - Brazil's President Lula has taken a strong stance against U.S. tariffs, which have significantly impacted trade relations, marking the lowest point in U.S.-Brazil relations in 200 years [3] - Brazil and India are collaborating to counter U.S. tariffs, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2030 and expand trade agreements [3][5] - The 11 BRICS nations have collectively criticized the U.S. for its unilateral tariff actions, indicating a growing resistance to U.S. economic dominance [3][5] - Brazil is actively seeking to strengthen trade ties with emerging economies and has filed a request with the WTO to discuss U.S. tariffs [3][5] - India has also expressed its discontent with U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the need to protect its domestic industries while maintaining a firm stance against U.S. pressure [5] - The actions of these countries reflect a broader trend towards de-dollarization and a desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade [5][7] - China plays a crucial role in supporting these nations, as evidenced by its quick response to U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, allowing exports to China [7] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Brazilian and Indian products, with rates reaching as high as 50% [1][3] - These actions have provoked strong reactions from both Brazil and India, leading to discussions on how to respond collectively [3][5] Brazil's Response - Brazil is enhancing trade relations with emerging economies and has initiated discussions to expand trade agreements with Mexico [3] - The Brazilian government has also approached the WTO regarding U.S. tariffs and is considering joint actions with other countries [3][5] India's Position - India has declared U.S. tariffs as unfair and is committed to protecting its domestic industries, despite internal pressures to concede [5] - The Indian government is prepared to take necessary actions to safeguard its economic interests [5] BRICS Coalition - The 11 BRICS nations have united to challenge U.S. economic policies, indicating a shift towards greater cooperation among emerging economies [3][5] - This coalition reflects a growing sentiment against U.S. economic hegemony and a push for a more balanced global trade system [5][7] De-dollarization Efforts - The collective actions of these countries signify a move towards reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar, with agreements to conduct trade in local currencies [5][7] - This trend is expected to reshape global trade dynamics and reduce U.S. influence in international markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by former President Trump through tariffs has led to a global "food crisis," adversely affecting American farmers and demonstrating the failure of unilateral trade policies [2][6]. Group 1: Impact on China - China strategically reduced imports of U.S. soybeans and corn starting in January 2025, opting for supplies from Brazil and Argentina to ensure domestic food security [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China imported 49.37 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, primarily for animal feed rather than domestic oil and food production [3]. - This shift reflects China's effective response to U.S. policy instability and a strong commitment to maintaining food security [3]. Group 2: Impact on India - The Trump administration's attempts to open the Indian market for U.S. agricultural products were met with resistance from the Modi government, which prioritized domestic farmers' interests [5]. - India's refusal to comply with U.S. demands resulted in the loss of a significant potential export market for American agricultural products [5]. Group 3: Consequences for U.S. Agriculture - The retaliatory tariffs imposed by allies like the EU and Canada severely impacted U.S. agricultural exports, particularly affecting the supply chain for agricultural machinery [6]. - In 2025, U.S. soybean planting area decreased by 4%, with many farmers switching to other crops or facing bankruptcy and unemployment [6]. - The failure of the tariff policy has undermined the political support base for Trump, as many affected farmers were his core supporters [6]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - China has maintained a firm stance, indicating that further trade negotiations are contingent upon the U.S. lifting unreasonable tariffs [7]. - The dual impact of U.S. tariffs has led to immediate product surpluses and price drops, alongside long-term market share losses and damaged international credibility [7]. Group 5: Conclusion on Trade Strategy - The failure of Trump's "first strike, then negotiate" strategy highlights the need for the U.S. to abandon unilateral tariff policies and rebuild international trust through multilateral cooperation [8]. - Without a new fair trade agreement between the U.S. and China, expectations for increased Chinese imports of U.S. agricultural products are unrealistic [8].

Core Viewpoint - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Lula highlights the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, emphasizing mutual cooperation and the importance of multilateralism in addressing global challenges [1] Group 1: China-Brazil Relations - Xi Jinping stated that China-Brazil relations are at their historical best, with successful progress in building a community of shared destiny and aligning development strategies [1] - Both leaders expressed a commitment to enhancing cooperation and achieving more mutually beneficial outcomes, aiming to set an example of solidarity among major developing countries [1] Group 2: Multilateralism and Global Challenges - Lula praised China's commitment to multilateralism and its responsible role in international affairs, expressing Brazil's desire to strengthen communication within BRICS and oppose unilateral actions [1] - Xi Jinping reiterated support for Brazil in defending its sovereignty and emphasized the need for countries to unite against unilateralism and protectionism [1] - The BRICS mechanism is highlighted as an important platform for consolidating the consensus of global South countries, with a focus on maintaining international fairness and justice [1]

Core Points - The relationship between China and Brazil is at its historical best, with positive progress in building a community of shared destiny and aligning development strategies [1] - Both countries aim to strengthen cooperation and create more mutually beneficial outcomes, setting an example for solidarity among global South countries [1] - Brazil emphasizes the importance of its relationship with China and seeks to deepen strategic alignment and cooperation [1] Summary by Sections - **China-Brazil Relations** - Xi Jinping highlighted the current peak in China-Brazil relations and the successful start of their community of shared destiny [1] - Both nations are committed to seizing opportunities for enhanced cooperation and mutual benefits [1] - **Brazil's Position** - Lula expressed Brazil's high regard for its relationship with China and the desire to strengthen cooperation [1] - He also discussed Brazil's relationship with the United States and reaffirmed Brazil's commitment to maintaining its sovereignty [1] - **Multilateral Cooperation** - Both leaders agreed on the importance of multilateralism and the need to oppose unilateralism and protectionism [1] - They emphasized the role of the BRICS mechanism in fostering consensus among global South countries [1] - **Global Challenges** - China and Brazil aim to jointly address global challenges, including ensuring the success of the UN climate change conference and promoting political solutions to the Ukraine crisis [1]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Emerging Economies - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imports from India and Brazil, significantly affecting their economic competitiveness [1][3] - India's defense procurement plans have been halted due to the tariffs, impacting contracts for military equipment [1] - Brazil faces a sudden increase in tariffs, with a total of 40% on top of existing rates, leading to a 50% threshold for most products [1] Group 2: India's Response to Tariffs - Indian Prime Minister Modi is caught between protecting farmers and addressing the impact of tariffs on exports [3][9] - India is considering concessions in agriculture and dairy sectors while maintaining a strong stance on military purchases [3] - There are discussions between India and Russia to enhance cooperation in sectors like rare earth mining and coal gasification [3] Group 3: Brazil's Strategy Against Tariffs - Brazilian President Lula is avoiding direct dialogue with Trump while seeking trade partnerships in Mexico [5] - Brazil aims to increase bilateral trade with India to $20 billion by 2030 and is pursuing regional cooperation to counter U.S. policies [5] - Brazil has filed a dispute resolution request with the WTO against the U.S. tariffs [5] Group 4: Domestic Economic Consequences in the U.S. - U.S. consumers are experiencing significant price increases, with average household expenses rising by $2,400 annually due to tariffs [4][6] - The tech industry is particularly affected, with companies like AMD and Supermicro seeing substantial stock price drops [7] - The current tariff levels are the highest since 1934, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [8] Group 5: Broader Implications of the Tariff War - The tariff conflict reflects a deeper struggle over national sovereignty and economic independence for emerging markets like India and Brazil [9] - Both countries are navigating complex negotiations, balancing between resistance and compromise in the face of U.S. pressure [9] - The ongoing tariff war may lead to a redefinition of global trade rules, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and AMD have reached an unprecedented agreement with the U.S. government to pay 15% of their sales revenue from the Chinese market in exchange for semiconductor export licenses, reflecting increased government intervention in business operations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Nvidia will pay 15% of its sales revenue from the H20 chip in China, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chip [3][4]. - This financial arrangement was a condition for obtaining export licenses after both companies were previously banned from exporting these chips to China [3][4]. - The expected sales revenue from Nvidia's H20 chip in China is projected to exceed $15 billion by the end of the year, while AMD's MI308 chip is expected to generate around $800 million, resulting in over $2 billion in revenue for the U.S. government [4]. Group 2: Government Intervention - The agreement is seen as part of the Trump administration's broader strategy to encourage domestic investment and job creation while imposing export controls [3][4]. - This type of financial arrangement for export licenses is rare and aligns with the Trump administration's increasing intervention in international business operations [4]. - The U.S. government has previously used similar tactics, such as the "golden share" condition in other acquisitions, to maintain control over companies [4]. Group 3: Reactions and Implications - Critics, including former U.S. Commerce Department advisors, argue that this practice compromises national security for financial gain [5]. - The situation raises questions about the ultimate goals of U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs and their dual role as a means of revenue generation [5]. - The Chinese government has expressed opposition to the politicization of technology and trade issues, emphasizing that such actions disrupt global supply chains and do not serve any party's interests [6].