Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data in the U.S. fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only saw a slight increase. The impact of Trump's immigration policies on the labor market is becoming more pronounced, leading to a divergence between non-farm payroll growth and unemployment rates. Future observations will focus on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve may resurface [1][2]. Non-Farm Data - The downward revision of non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, raising concerns about data quality. Historical comparisons indicate that the extent of this revision is unusual, suggesting a weakening in the private sector job market [2]. - Despite the significant drop in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate only experienced a minor increase. This divergence is attributed to the effects of immigration policies, which have led to a noticeable decline in the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the workforce and a decrease in the share of people holding multiple jobs [2]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding monetary policy, balancing between employment conditions and inflation risks influenced by immigration and tariff policies. The July non-farm data is unlikely to alter Powell's hawkish stance, with the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting being a critical point for observing policy statements [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with Chairman Powell considering the legacy of his policies and the balance between tight and loose monetary policy [1][17]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy rate, citing that inflation is slightly above target and the job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [4][6]. - There were two dissenting votes in the recent meeting, marking the first occurrence since 1993, indicating differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [1][4]. - Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and future decisions will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [4][7]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Recent government tariffs have generated significant revenue, with monthly collections reaching $30 billion, but the impact on consumer prices is still being assessed [5][11]. - The Fed is adopting a "wait and see" approach regarding the impact of tariffs on core consumer prices, aiming to prevent temporary price increases from becoming persistent inflation [5][8]. - Powell noted that the effects of tariffs on prices may take time to materialize, and the Fed is focused on ensuring that any price impacts do not lead to sustained inflation [5][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed a GDP growth of 1.2% in the first half of the year, a decline from the previous year's 2.5%, while the job market remains stable with low unemployment [9][10]. - There is a concern that the balance between job demand and supply is weakening, which could indicate underlying risks in the employment market [10][11]. - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on achieving full employment and price stability, rather than solely on economic growth [9][10]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence from political pressures, especially in light of recent calls from President Trump for rate cuts [15][16]. - The Fed aims to focus on economic data and risk assessments rather than political influences, which is crucial for maintaining credibility in monetary policy [15][16]. - The independence of the Fed is seen as vital for effective economic governance, ensuring that monetary decisions are made based on economic conditions rather than political motivations [15][16].

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 542.40 points (1.23%) to close at 43,588.58, the Nasdaq dropping by 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell by 2.9%, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2% [2] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in the last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - Employment growth revisions for May and June were significantly downward, surprising many analysts [3] - Job creation was primarily concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, indicating a steady decline in the breadth of job creation [3] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that US consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to the lowest level since February [3] - Despite the positive trend in consumer sentiment, overall market sentiment remains negative, with consumers still cautious about the economic trajectory [3] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve officials expressed dissent regarding the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a loosening of monetary policy to prevent potential deterioration in the labor market [3] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield decreasing by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Corporate Performance - Amazon's stock fell by 8.3% following a third-quarter revenue guidance that was below market expectations [5] - Major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8%, and Meta down 0.7% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 1.8%, with Alibaba down 2.9%, NetEase down 2.2%, Baidu down 2.0%, and JD down 1.8% [7] Oil and Gold Prices - Economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations pressured oil prices, with WTI crude oil falling by 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7] - Safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices higher, with October contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, which is not surprising [1] - Both the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and private sector data (ADP employment data) depict a similar trend of a softening labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve is committed to making monetary policy decisions based on the best available data [1] Group 2 - There is no tension in this week's FOMC monetary policy meeting [1] - Discussions within the FOMC are described as positive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

美联储博斯蒂克：就业数据很重要，修正是更重要的。就业市场从强劲水平放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of the Federal Reserve taking early action has increased, but it still depends on upcoming key reports regarding inflation and the job market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Employment Market Analysis - The recent non-farm payroll report presents a different scenario compared to what Federal Reserve Chair Powell described earlier in the week [1] - The unemployment rate remains at a reasonable level, indicating that even a poor report may not lead all hawkish individuals to completely change their stance [1] - Inflation Reports - Future inflation reports will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserve will act sooner than expected [1] - The sustainability of inflation trends will play a significant role in the decision-making process [1]

美联储哈玛克：预计到年底就业市场将走弱。 ...

Group 1 - The average increase in employment over the past three months is only 35,000, marking the weakest hiring pace since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 [1] - The labor force participation rate is declining, with the labor force shrinking for the second consecutive month, which is a concerning sign [1] - Despite many individuals exiting the job market, the unemployment rate rose in July, indicating further economic concerns [1] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, slightly up from 0.2% in June, with a year-over-year income growth of 3.9%, outpacing inflation and suggesting an increase in workers' purchasing power [1] - Employment indicators from household surveys showed a contraction in July, further highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1]

鲍威尔称，在观察劳动力市场时，失业率是关键指标。6月美国失业率意外下降，但劳动力规模和参与 率也同步下降。在很大程度上，由于特朗普移民政策的重大变化，失业率的参考价值正在下降，反而变 成了一个"数学问题"。 今年上半年，美国就业市场似乎一直表现良好。然而，就业增长势头减弱的风险正在上升。 将于北京时间周五晚上8点30分发布的7月就业报告预计将显示新增11万个就业岗位，较6月的14.7万个 显著下滑；失业率预计将从4.1%微升至4.2%；平均时薪月率预计将上升0.3%，高于6月份的0.2%。如果 预测准确，这将强化就业市场放缓的观点，尽管未必需要美联储做出回应。 美国劳工统计局数据显示，截至6月，美国每月新增就业岗位在10.2万至15.8万之间。这些稳健增长，被 普遍认为达到了"盈亏平衡点"，即新增岗位与劳动力增长同步，从而维持失业率稳定。 美联储的巴尔 金表示，6月底就业市场的"盈亏平衡点"现在回到了每月8-10万左右。 除去2020年疫情衰退期，当前每月13万个岗位的增速，是2010年以来（1-6月）的最低均值——当时美 国经济正从大衰退中恢复。 美联储主席鲍威尔周四在政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，"你确实 ...