Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current REITs bull market is driven by three main factors: declining risk-free interest rates, increased demand for institutional allocation, and the cyclical advantages of certain assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The REITs market has reached a new high, with the CSI REITs total return index hitting 1107.3 as of June 6, 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 14.4%, outperforming global asset classes [2]. - The total market value of C-REITs has surpassed 200 billion, with eight new projects launched this year showing impressive yields, although the subscription rate has decreased due to intensified competition for quality assets [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high valuations in the next 1-2 years, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances and policy benefits yet to be fully realized [2]. - C-REITs are projected to evolve through three phases: "expansion initiation - valuation enhancement - equilibrium stabilization," with the market value potentially reaching 400-500 billion and the number of listed REITs exceeding 100 in the next three years [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on primary market offline subscriptions and strategic placements, while secondary market allocations should concentrate on "high-quality domestic demand assets + recovery assets" [3]. - Suggested sectors include policy-driven rental housing, consumer goods, and municipal environmental projects, as well as logistics assets with strong management capabilities and improving occupancy rates [3].

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown strength recently, with stocks like China CITIC Bank and Chengdu Bank reaching historical highs. The AH Preferred ETF (517900) has seen continuous net inflows for seven weeks, totaling approximately 230 million since the beginning of the year, leading to a year-to-date growth of 238.69% in scale [1] - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) remains above 10%, indicating a strong performance compared to other industries, despite a marginal decline in overall operating performance in Q1 due to macroeconomic conditions and market volatility [1] - The outlook for the banking sector remains positive, with expectations of a moderate recovery in credit issuance driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, and a favorable environment for net interest margins due to reduced pressure on banks' funding costs [1] Group 2 - The name of the fund "Bank ETF Preferred" will change to "Bank AH Preferred ETF" starting June 16, 2025. The fund's index, "Bank AH," had a dividend yield of 6.51% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks in the AH market [2] - The fund has shown significant performance metrics, with a one-year increase of 47.16% and an annualized return of 14.49% since inception [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has shown strong growth since its inception in 2021, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and 66 projects listed, making it the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7][11] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, supported by favorable regulations and increasing investor recognition, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][4] - The investment attractiveness of REITs is gradually increasing, with a rebound in secondary market valuations and a year-to-date return of 17.4% as of June 13, 2025 [14][4] Market Development Review - The market has benefited from progressive policies, including the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's 1014 document, which has laid a foundation for sustainable growth [6][2] - New asset types, such as data centers and senior living facilities, are gaining traction, with significant oversubscription rates for recent projects, indicating strong market demand [7][11] - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS has reached 13.603 billion yuan, contributing to the development of a multi-tiered REITs market [11][14] Future Market Outlook - The expansion of asset types and the acceleration of initial offerings and expansions are expected to enhance the market ecosystem, providing diverse investment options for investors [25][26] - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is deemed necessary to cater to varying risk preferences and asset development stages, covering the entire lifecycle from cultivation to exit [27][28] - Increasing the diversity of the investor base, including public funds and foreign capital, is essential for enhancing market liquidity and depth [29][4] Investment Strategy - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage," the REITs market is viewed positively for the second half of the year, although valuation risks should be monitored as the market valuation center rises [4][37] - Strategies such as primary market participation, dividend trading, and expansion gaming are recommended for investors to optimize returns [42][46][49] - The market's performance is expected to be influenced by new issuances and unlockings in the second half of the year, with a total of 28 projects involving 26.8 billion yuan set to unlock [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market continues to perform strongly amid low bond yields, attracting long-term capital, particularly in the highway REITs sector, which is expected to benefit from increasing regional liquidity and favorable policies [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the 23rd week of 2025, the CSI REITs Index closed at 881.85, up 10.7% year-on-year and 1.55% month-on-month; the CSI REITs Total Return Index reached 1107.26, up 18.05% year-on-year and 1.58% month-on-month [2]. - The weekly trading volume of the REITs market was 465 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.93%, with a transaction value of 2.093 billion yuan, up 29.28% year-on-year [2]. - Highway REITs are favored for their strong cash flow and stable returns, supported by the growth in vehicle ownership and economic recovery [2]. Industry Outlook - The Central Committee and State Council have issued opinions to support the issuance of REITs for qualifying transportation projects, indicating significant potential for the expansion of highway REITs [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the total length of highways in China reached 190,700 kilometers, with a notable increase in the national highway network [4]. - The construction of highways is ongoing, with a potential asset scale for highway REITs estimated to be over 10 trillion yuan, given the profitability of underlying road assets [4]. Policy Support - New regulations extending the concession period for infrastructure projects to 40 years are expected to enhance the stability and attractiveness of highway REITs [4]. - The government is actively promoting the optimization of toll road policies and extending toll collection periods, which will benefit the highway sector [5]. Investment Opportunities - The issuance of highway REITs can help accelerate capital turnover for highway construction companies and reduce their debt ratios, providing investors with a new channel to participate in infrastructure returns [5]. - The competitive landscape for quality highway projects is intensifying, necessitating improved operational management capabilities [6]. Future Development - Companies are exploring synergies between highways and other sectors, such as logistics, tourism, and renewable energy, to enhance asset management [6]. - The integration of renewable energy projects, such as solar power generation along highways, is being pursued to align with national carbon neutrality goals [7]. - Highway REITs are expected to maintain growth potential due to stable cash flows and favorable policies, appealing to long-term investors like insurance and pension funds [7].

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has acquired 329.6 million shares of Hangzhou Bank from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia for a total price of 4.32 billion yuan, making it the fourth largest shareholder with a 5.09% stake [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The share acquisition was completed at a price of 13.095 yuan per share, totaling 4.32 billion yuan [3]. - Following the transaction, the Commonwealth Bank no longer holds shares in Hangzhou Bank, which maintains no controlling shareholder or actual controller [3]. - The top three shareholders of Hangzhou Bank as of Q1 2025 are Hangzhou Financial Investment Group (18.2%), Red Lion Holdings Group (11.1%), and Hangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group (6.9%) [3]. Group 2: Investment Rationale - Analysts believe Xinhua Insurance's investment reflects confidence in Hangzhou Bank's long-term development prospects, given its strong performance and strategic location in the economically vibrant Yangtze River Delta [3]. - Hangzhou Bank reported a revenue of 38.38 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit of 16.98 billion yuan, up 18.1%, maintaining a leading growth rate in the industry [3]. Group 3: Broader Industry Trends - Since 2025, several insurance companies, including China Life and Ping An, have increased their holdings in bank stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [5]. - The banking sector index has risen over 12% year-to-date, with several bank stocks reaching historical highs [5]. - The trend of insurance capital investing in bank stocks is driven by the need for asset allocation optimization and recognition of the long-term value of bank stocks [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - High-quality banks are expected to become a priority for insurance capital in equity investments, providing a continuous source of incremental capital for the sector [7].

银行指数走势 投资要点： 银行业 超配（维持） 确定性稀缺时代对相对安全边际的追逐 银行业 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 6 月 13 日 推荐 分析师：吴晓彤 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn 银行指数 深 资料来源：IFinD，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 复盘：板块 ROE 处于中上游水平，各子板块全面普涨。银行板块 ROE 受到宏观环境的影响有所下行，但是与其他 30 个行业横向比较，银 行板块超过 10%的 ROE 仍处于中上游水平。今年前五个月银行板块 贯穿始终，源于低利率环境下股息率的优越性、不确定环境中的确定 性以及政策托底。除此以外，险资等增量资金持续流入是重要行情支 撑要素之一。 ◼ 基本面展望：政策呵护，负债成本已进入改善通道。（1）量：全方位 扩大国内需求，信贷投放有望温和修复。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the possibility of an upward breakthrough in stock indices is low without significant positive news. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by macro - economic conditions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock indices: Limited upward breakthrough possibility without positive news, be cautious about Sino - US tariff signals, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks suppress the upward space, with short - term oscillation and a solid long - term upward logic [1]. Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost risk appetite, but weak downstream demand limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and fluctuating macro - sentiment may lead to oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increasing production in the smelting end pressures the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - situation, with long - term pressure from first - grade nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak oscillation, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply shortage in the short term leads to high - level oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Short - term oscillation with heavy warehouse receipt pressure and supply - demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon iron: Oscillation due to weak supply and demand [1]. Building Materials and Energy - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance leads to a weakening price trend [1]. - Soda ash: Supply surplus concerns and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price [1]. - Coking coal: Can continue to short - sell, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse receipt cost of 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: Falls in line with coking coal as the cost of coal for furnace use decreases [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May have a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data in the MPOB report [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Weak fundamentals and the game with other oils, be vigilant against a rebound [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, affected by trade negotiations, weather, and consumption seasons [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the price may be affected by the sugar - alcohol ratio and crude oil prices [1]. - Corn: Tight supply - demand balance expected, with short - term oscillation [1]. - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation is strong, but the increase of MO9 is expected to be limited [1]. Chemicals - PTA: The tight situation is alleviating, and short - fiber costs are closely related [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continues to decline due to profit expansion and inventory reduction [1]. - Styrene: Bullish due to increased device load and concentrated inventory [1]. - PP: Oscillation is strong due to maintenance and rigid demand [1]. - PVC: Oscillation is weak due to increased supply pressure and seasonal factors [1]. - LPG: Supply increase, high port inventory, and weak demand suppress the price, and there are short - selling opportunities [1]. Others - Shipping: For container shipping on the European line, consider short - selling and long - buying strategies according to different contract periods [1]. - Fuel oil: Oscillation, affected by geopolitical situations and consumption seasons [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillation, with cost drag and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillation, with factors such as narrowing price difference, falling raw material prices, and reduced inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Expected to decline due to weak cost support and high inventory [1].