一季度业绩承压，全年季度环比望迎改善 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-5-4 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 36.21 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 38.08/25.46 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1598 | | 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1306 | | 流通股比例（%） | 81.73% | | 总市值（亿元） | 578.66 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 472.86 | 科伦药业 [Table_StockNameRptType] （002422.SZ） 公司点评 [Table_Chart] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 科伦药业 沪深300 分析师：谭国超 ⚫ 事件 2 2025 年 4 月 30 日，科伦药业发布 2025 年一季报，公司实现营业 收入 43.90 亿元，同比-29.42%；归母净利润 5.84 亿元，同比- 43.07%；扣非归母净利润 5.64 亿元，同比-43.10%。去年同期高 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 农林牧渔 2025Q1 农业板块业绩简述 本周热点：2025Q1 农业板块业绩简述。2025 年一季度，SW 农林牧渔板 块实现合计利润 135.1 亿元，同比增长 1049%，其中，养殖业、饲料、农 产品加工板块贡献较高，分别占利润的 59%、16%、15%。1）养殖业： 实现利润 80 亿元，同比增长 254%，其中生猪养殖 76.15 亿元，同比增 长 242%；肉鸡养殖 3.8 亿元，同比增长 155%。从价格端看，2025 年一 季度，搜猪网肉猪均价 15.2 元/kg，同比增长 4%；博亚和讯白羽鸡产品 均价 9.1 元/kg，同比下跌 5.9%；新牧网黄羽中速鸡均价 11.5 元/kg，同 比下跌 8%，总体看，除猪价外，畜禽产品价格表现相对低迷，但饲料端 价格亦疲软，据发改委，生猪饲料、肉鸡饲料分别 2.7 元/kg、3.2 元/kg， 同比分别下降 16%、10%，因此养殖板块利润增长更多来自于原料价格及 养殖成本下降贡献。2）饲料、动保：分别实现利润 21.43 亿元、5.12 亿 元，同比分别增长 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The esports industry in Shanghai is rapidly developing and is now considered to be at a unique level compared to other Asian cities, surpassing South Korea's Seoul and Japan's Tokyo in terms of scale and capability [1][5][7]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The DOTA2 offline elimination tournament held in Shanghai attracted over 3,000 on-site viewers and millions online from May 1-3 [1]. - The upcoming finals for nine esports projects will take place in major venues in Shanghai from May 16-18, showcasing the city's capacity to host large-scale events [3][4]. - The Asian Champions League (ACL) has engaged over 1,000 teams from 32 cities in China for the CS2 project, indicating widespread participation [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Shanghai's esports infrastructure, including multiple large venues, allows for hosting events that would be challenging in South Korea, even in its largest city, Seoul [4]. - While South Korea had a pioneering advantage in esports, the current level of China's esports capabilities, particularly in Shanghai, has surpassed that of South Korea [5]. - Japan's esports scene is still developing and lacks the depth seen in Shanghai, with a focus on console gaming rather than competitive esports [7]. Group 3: Financial Challenges - The esports industry faces significant profitability challenges, with many events struggling to break even [11][13]. - The ACL's total investment for this year's nine esports projects is close to 200 million RMB, covering various operational costs [14]. - Despite the challenges, the ACL is focusing on building audience reputation and engagement in its first year, with profitability not being the primary concern initially [15].

Group 1: Core Insights - The rise of grassroots basketball events is evident, with multiple leagues like the Streetball King and 361°'s Touch the Ground League gaining traction and attracting sponsorships [1][2][5] - The basketball population in China has reached 125 million, with a core audience of approximately 76.1 million, indicating a strong foundation for basketball events [3] - The commercial viability of these grassroots events is still developing, with many relying on sponsorships and ticket sales, but facing challenges in monetization [6][9] Group 2: Event Dynamics - Various grassroots basketball leagues are innovating their rules to enhance spectator engagement, such as the 4-on-4 format and unique scoring systems [2][3] - The Streetball King event in Nanchang attracted 10,000 spectators over three days, with significant online engagement, highlighting the potential for audience reach [4] - Many former professional players are transitioning to grassroots leagues, blurring the lines between professional and street basketball [5][9] Group 3: Commercialization Challenges - The commercial sponsorship landscape for grassroots basketball events is inconsistent, with many events still offering free admission and lacking substantial media rights revenue [6][9] - Some events are struggling with profitability, often operating at a loss, and face challenges in attracting significant sponsorship investments [9][10] - The need for a cohesive commercial strategy is emphasized, as events can enhance brand visibility and sales for sponsoring companies, as seen with brands like 361° and Li Ning [10]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI has integrated a shopping feature into ChatGPT, allowing users to express shopping needs and compare product prices across multiple platforms, marking a significant step in the commercialization of AI chatbots [1][3][15]. Group 1: Shopping Feature Implementation - The shopping feature is embedded within the ChatGPT dialogue system and currently supports categories such as electronics, fashion, beauty, and home goods, with plans to expand to more categories in the future [5][15]. - Users can request product recommendations, and ChatGPT generates a list of items with links from major e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Walmart, and eBay, including images, prices, and brief descriptions [2][6][8]. - The product reviews displayed come from various online publishers and user forums, but users must complete purchases on the merchant's website as in-app checkout is not available [9][10]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The rapid development of large models has led to a shift in user behavior from traditional search engines to AI chatbots for searches, with ChatGPT recording over 1 billion searches in the past week [11]. - There is a growing interest among e-commerce platforms to leverage generative AI for product visibility, with some businesses exploring how to feature their products in AI-generated responses [12][13]. Group 3: Future Revenue Opportunities - OpenAI's shopping feature does not currently generate revenue or charge e-commerce platforms for recommendations, but future collaborations with specific platforms could lead to revenue-sharing opportunities [15][20]. - OpenAI has been exploring partnerships with e-commerce platforms like Shopify to facilitate a more integrated shopping experience, which may pave the way for affiliate marketing and revenue-sharing models [16][19]. - The company anticipates achieving positive cash flow and $125 billion in revenue by 2029, indicating a long-term strategy for monetization [26]. Group 4: Financial Challenges - OpenAI's primary revenue source has been user subscriptions, with an expected annual recurring revenue of approximately $3.4 billion by mid-2024, but this is insufficient to cover the high costs of model training and operations, projected to reach $7 billion in 2024 [21][22][23]. - The integration of shopping features could provide a new revenue stream for AI model companies, as seen with other tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, who are also developing AI-driven shopping solutions [24]. Group 5: Consumer Demand - A survey conducted by IBM revealed that over half of consumers expressed a desire to use robots or virtual assistants while shopping, indicating a strong market demand for AI-enhanced shopping experiences [25].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the first quarter of 2025, net PyroKine revenue was $8,700,000, a 6% increase compared to $8,200,000 in the first quarter of 2024 [32] - Revenue decreased by 19% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to year-end stocking benefits and adjustments to revenue reserves [32] - Cost of sales for the quarter was $1,100,000, R&D expenses were $72,700,000, an increase of $4,100,000 compared to the first quarter of 2024, and SG&A expenses were $41,500,000, an increase of $10,500,000 compared to the prior year quarter [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 5% increase in new prescriptions and new patient starts in the first quarter since the January label update, translating into 136 net patients on therapy, also a 5% increase versus the prior quarter [30] - The company expects growth in net revenue to be in the 10% to 20% range on an annual basis, consistent with other rare disease launches [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The thalassemia market is characterized by a well-defined patient population, with 67% of diagnosed patients in the U.S. having no approved therapies [12] - The company estimates that its initial launch focus will address approximately 65% of the adult thalassemia patient population [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize the potential of the PyroKine franchise, advance and diversify key pipeline programs, and strategically focus capital deployment to sustain growth [6] - The company is preparing for a potential approval and launch in thalassemia in the U.S. by September 7, 2025, followed by sickle cell disease in 2026 [5][6] - The company is focused on disease state education campaigns to prepare for the launch, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and management of thalassemia [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential approval and launch of PyroKine for thalassemia and the Phase III readout for sickle cell disease, viewing 2025 as a breakout year [38] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately $1,400,000,000 in cash, providing financial independence to support product launches and pipeline advancement [5][36] Other Important Information - The company has a robust early and mid-stage pipeline poised for clinical advancement, with significant expected events for 2025 [8] - The company has welcomed Krishnan Viswanathan as Chief Corporate Development and Strategy Officer to enhance corporate strategy and capital allocation [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation about no advisory committee for the September PDUFA - Management confirmed that there is no advisory committee planned and that the regulatory review is ongoing, with strong engagement with the FDA [42][43] Question: Impact of Oxbreda withdrawal on sickle cell trial recruitment - Management noted that they have not observed changes in clinical trial conduct and emphasized the need for multiple therapeutic options for sickle cell disease [46][47] Question: Plans for launching mitapivat ex-U.S. - The company plans to prioritize the Gulf region and Europe for launches, leveraging partnerships for effective execution [50][53] Question: Changes in communication frequency with the FDA - Management stated that communication with the FDA remains consistent and normal, with no changes due to recent agency reshuffling [63] Question: Rationale for starting Phase II tebapivat study in sickle cell - Management highlighted the large unmet medical need in sickle cell disease and the importance of having multiple therapy options for patients [66][69] Question: Anticipated evolution of PyroKine's pricing - Management indicated that pricing decisions will be based on the value proposition of the label received and expressed confidence in navigating pricing opportunities [94][95]

4月29日凌晨，阿里巴巴开源新一代通义千问模型Qwen3（简称千问3）。它的参数量仅为 DeepSeek-R1的1/3，成本大幅下降，性能全面超越R1、OpenAI-o1等全球顶尖模型。 不 难 看 出 ， 行 业 已 从 单 纯 追 求 参 数 规 模 向 效 率 与 实 用 性 转 型 。 Qwe n 3 一 经 发 布 ， 就 在 Hu g g i n g Fa c e、GitHu b等开发者社区迅速获得了不错的反响。 业内分析认为，这是中国AI技术在高性能、低成本技术路线上的重要突破，进一步巩固了阿 里在AI领域的地位。 而阿里在AI方向上的投入还在加大。2 0 2 5年2月，阿里CEO吴泳铭宣布未来三年将投入3 8 0 0 亿元加码AI与云计算基础设施，这一数字超过了阿里过去十年在该领域的投入总和。 "Qwe n 3反映了最近的两个趋势：MoE和可选的思考模式，做到了一个领先，把预训练数据量 一下子拉到了3 0多T的水平，上一个拉到这个水平的Ll ama 4已经落后了。"杭州久痕科技创 始人、CEO汪源认为，Qwe n 3在性价比上有了巨大的提升，但是在多模态和长上下文方面还 要加大力度去完善。 从 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased its 2025 financial guidance across all metrics, raising revenue expectations by more than 20% due to strong Q1 results and successful licensing transactions [29][34] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $132 million, a 10% year-over-year increase, with over half coming from commercial products, which grew 28% compared to the same period last year [29][30] - Non-GAAP operating loss guidance improved by nearly 25% to less than $375 million, with an expected cash balance of $1.9 billion by year-end [37][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The first independent commercial launch, TrINGOLZA, generated over $6 million in product sales in its first full quarter, exceeding expectations [6][30] - SPINRAZA royalties contributed $48 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase, while Waynua royalties were $9 million, with expectations for growth driven by strong U.S. demand [30][31] - The company anticipates additional product revenue from the upcoming launch of Donadolorsen for Hereditary Angioedema (HAE) [36][59] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on expanding its market presence, particularly in the rare disease space, with significant unmet needs in conditions like familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) and severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) [6][18] - The estimated patient population for FCS in the U.S. is around 3,000, while SHTG has a much larger addressable market of over 1 million patients [70][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing on strategic priorities, including multiple independent launches and partnerships to enhance its product pipeline and revenue potential [5][8] - The focus remains on disease education and patient identification to maximize the potential of TrINGOLZA and prepare for the launch of Donadolorsen [35][96] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its first-mover advantage in both FCS and SHTG markets, aiming for substantial revenue growth and positive cash flow [22][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the evolving regulatory environment and potential disruptions due to new tariff policies but expressed confidence in the company's strategic execution [4][5] - The company is optimistic about achieving sustained revenue growth, with late-stage programs expected to deliver significant peak sales potential in the multibillion-dollar range [38][41] - Management emphasized the importance of ongoing patient identification efforts and payer engagement to ensure access to treatments [15][16] Other Important Information - The company completed licensing transactions for sapaglutzin and ex-U.S. commercialization rights for olazarcen, enhancing its financial outlook [33][34] - The company is actively engaging with payers to establish broad access for TrINGOLZA and Donadolorsen, with favorable coverage dynamics reported [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overlap between physician prescribers for FCS and SHTG - Management indicated significant overlap among cardiologists and endocrinologists treating both FCS and SHTG patients, which could facilitate the transition to SHTG treatment [48][49] Question: Preparation for Donadolorsen launch - The company is actively preparing for the launch of Donadolorsen, focusing on patient advocacy and physician education to facilitate transitions from existing therapies [59][60] Question: Impact of tariffs and FDA interactions - Management reported no significant impact from tariffs or changes in FDA interactions, with all programs on track [61][63] Question: Confidence in FCS patient estimates - The company expressed confidence in the estimated 3,000 FCS patients and is focused on increasing awareness and identification of these patients [68][70] Question: Channel stocking for TrINGOLZA - Management confirmed that TrINGOLZA sales are demand-driven, with no significant channel stocking observed [75][76] Question: Manufacturing footprint and tariff exposure - The company has a robust manufacturing supply chain in place and has not experienced any meaningful impacts from tariffs to date [78][79]

4月30日，一则重磅消息震动汽车与科技行业——丰田汽车和Alphabet旗下的Waymo表示，双方已同意 探讨合作，加快自动驾驶技术的开发和部署。两家公司在一份联合声明中表示，他们的目标是结合各自 的优势，开发一个自动驾驶汽车平台，同时还将探索如何加强下一代个人拥有的汽车(POVs)。双方表 示将讨论扩大合作范围的可能性。 在智通财经APP看来，作为全球汽车行业的龙头企业，丰田此番与美国Robotaxi领域唯一成规模的玩家 联手，绝非偶然，而是其在智能驾驶领域深思熟虑后的关键落子，背后折射出丰田对自动驾驶商业化的 深远布局与坚定决心。 丰田选择Waymo，本质上是一次优势互补的战略"联姻"。Waymo作为全球顶级的L4级自动驾驶企业， 拥有深厚的技术积淀与丰富的运营经验。其自动驾驶系统历经数千万英里的实际道路测试，具备处理各 类复杂路况的能力，在全无人驾驶技术领域处于行业领先地位。 目前，Waymo的Robotaxi服务已在美国多个城市实现常态化运营，每周为用户提供超25万次出行服务， 积累了海量的实际运营数据。而丰田作为全球汽车制造巨头，具备强大的整车制造能力、完善的供应链 体系以及庞大的全球销售网络。双方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in its transformation efforts, as evidenced by worsening financial performance despite advancements in global expansion and R&D initiatives [1][4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 828 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.95% [1]. - Gross profit decreased to 263 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 529 million yuan, worsening by 33.06% from a loss of 398 million yuan in 2023 [1][7]. - The company's net cash flow from operations was -348 million yuan, although this represented a 78.8% improvement year-on-year, it remained negative [7]. - Total assets decreased by 10.0% to 8.095 billion yuan, and net assets attributable to shareholders fell by 10.6% to 6.645 billion yuan [7]. Global Expansion Efforts - The company accelerated its global expansion in 2024, establishing production and research bases in various locations including the U.S. and several cities in China [4]. - Acquisitions of companies such as Confirm in the U.S. and others in China were made to enhance its market presence in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [4]. - A large POCT production base was established in the U.S., and the company received CLIA certification, marking the official launch of its laboratory business in the U.S. [4]. R&D Investments - The company made significant strides in R&D, including the establishment of a North American R&D center and a digital innovation headquarters in Shanghai [4]. - Important certifications were obtained for products in various fields, including emergency use authorization from the FDA and IVDR registration from the EU [4]. - Despite increased R&D investments, the company reported a non-recurring net profit loss of 571 million yuan, which expanded by 32.60% year-on-year, indicating that R&D efforts have not yet translated into profit growth [5][6]. Challenges Ahead - The company’s financial deterioration and cash flow pressures highlight the need for improved commercialization of its products and effective management of its financial health [7]. - The ongoing losses and lack of immediate economic benefits from global expansion and R&D efforts pose significant challenges for the company's future profitability [1][4][7].