每经记者 岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑 易启江 王嘉琦 2025年4月，特朗普对美联储的独立性发起挑战，多次暗示可能将现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）免职。 太和智库高级研究员、中国现代国际关系研究院前副院长王在邦向《每日经济新闻》记者（简称每经记者）表示，特朗普宣称罢免鲍威尔，迅速向市场传 递一个美元要"完蛋"的信号，引起金融市场恐慌。美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌，相当于投向美元信用的一枚核弹。 美联储的独立性自1913年成立以来便是美国金融体系的核心原则，若特朗普强行罢免鲍威尔，将首次打破这一百年传统，使美联储沦为政治工具，削弱其 专业性和公信力。 1 独立性是美联储的立身之本 4月17日，特朗普称鲍威尔"玩弄政治""越早走人越好"，并放言"如果我想让他走人，他很快就得走"。 4月21日，特朗普还称鲍威尔是"太迟先生""一个大失败者"，并警告称，如果鲍威尔不马上降息，美国经济将出现放缓。 美国总统和美联储主席的冲突，并不是今天才存在的，而是从美联储创立之初就根植在政府和美联储之间。 | | | 历史上总统向美联储施压案例和最终结果 | | | 170 | | -- ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is experiencing significant economic challenges, highlighted by a global tariff war initiated by Trump, leading to rising prices and consumer panic [1][3] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has plummeted, indicating a severe decline in public sentiment [1] - The U.S. international credibility has diminished, with the share of oil transactions in U.S. dollars dropping from 70% to 58% [1] Group 2 - The wealth gap in the U.S. has widened dramatically, with the top 10% of the population holding 52% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% saw a 7.3% decrease in real income [3] - Large-scale protests have erupted, with participation peaking at 5 million, reflecting widespread public discontent [3] - Political trust is eroding, with 57% of the population perceiving government policies as inconsistent [3] Group 3 - China is managing to withstand the impacts of the tariff war due to its robust manufacturing base, with all 41 industrial categories represented [3] - The semiconductor industry in China is accelerating its development, with 592 new chip design companies established in 2024 [3] - The share of cross-border payments in Renminbi has surpassed 12%, and the subscription rate for panda bonds reached 137% [3] Group 4 - The U.S. is facing a liquidity crisis in its treasury market, with rising interest payments consuming a large portion of fiscal revenue [3] - The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes are causing international capital to flee from dollar assets [3] - The global reserve share of the U.S. dollar has fallen below 49%, indicating a shift in the international financial landscape [3]

Group 1 - China's technological innovation is achieving significant advancements across various fields, establishing itself as a global leader in areas such as AI, quantum computing, and digital technology [1][2] - China is recognized as the global "four crown king" in comprehensive R&D capabilities, leading in international patent applications, top technology clusters, total R&D personnel, and influential academic publications [2] - The "East Data West Calculation" project and other high-tech initiatives are enhancing China's strategic technological frontiers [2] Group 2 - The Chinese technology sector is driving consumption upgrades, with innovations like smart homes and AI-driven products becoming mainstream, thus boosting domestic economic circulation [3] - The rise of domestic alternatives in technology is strengthening China's self-reliance, with companies like BOE achieving a 98% localization rate in OLED screens [3] Group 3 - Foreign investment in China is expected to increase, with predictions that 2025 will be a pivotal year for global investors to reassess China's international competitiveness [4] - Reports from foreign institutions indicate that A-share market valuations are at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential for investors [4][5] Group 4 - China's innovation ecosystem is becoming more robust, with local governments actively improving the business environment to foster innovation [7] - The Chinese government is providing strong leadership and strategic direction for technological self-reliance and innovation [7] Group 5 - The U.S. attempts to impose technological barriers on China have inadvertently accelerated China's innovation and development in critical technology areas [8][9] - American companies are increasingly concerned about losing access to the Chinese market, which could significantly impact their revenue and R&D investments [8] Group 6 - China's commitment to inclusive technology development is fostering a global "community of shared future," with initiatives aimed at benefiting developing countries [10] - Chinese technological advancements, such as the DeepSeek model, are democratizing AI and breaking the monopoly of advanced computing power [10] Group 7 - The decline of U.S. technological hegemony is evident as Chinese companies emerge as significant players in various sectors, challenging the traditional dominance of American firms [11] - Predictions indicate a decrease in the U.S. manufacturing sector's global market share, highlighting the challenges faced by American industries [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential reduction of tariffs on China by the U.S. government, suggesting a shift towards a more conciliatory approach [1][4][21] - It highlights the historical context of U.S.-China relations, particularly referencing past conflicts and the lessons learned from them, such as the significance of the "Water Gate Bridge" during the Korean War [11][13][27] - The article emphasizes China's industrial and technological advancements, contrasting them with the U.S.'s deindustrialization and reliance on financial gains, which has weakened its economic position [5][20][21] Group 2 - The narrative suggests that the current economic conflict is not just about trade but also about historical grievances and future global power dynamics [2][25][27] - It points out that many countries are increasingly supportive of China's stance against U.S. hegemony, indicating a shift in global sentiment towards a more equitable world order [23][25] - The article concludes that China's firm stance in the face of U.S. tariff threats is rooted in historical experiences and a desire for a fairer future, rather than mere economic competition [27][25][21]

四是美国债作为全球安全资产的声誉被严重削弱。白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰近期在一份报 告中提出，未来要"强制"外国投资者将所持美债置换为超长期低息债券，并限制投资者直接在市场上出 售这些美债。如果外国投资者拒绝"合作"，美国政府将会对这些投资者的投资收益征收高额税收。这种 金融霸凌行径将会严重侵蚀美国债的声誉和信用。在相关预期作用下，当前外国主权投资者购买美国债 的意愿明显下降，这也将导致美国债收益率上升。 近期，美国滥施关税政策对国际金融市场造成直接冲击，美国股市、债市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见 现象。其中，美国10年期国债收益率由4月4日的4.01%一度升至4月11日的4.49%，创下自2001 年"9·11"事件以来的最大单周涨幅。收益率飙升对应的是美债价格的大幅下跌，进而引发全球对美国债 市场系统性风险的普遍担忧。 4月以来，美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期。市场预测，仅美国对华关税加征至245%这一举动， 就将显著推高其进口商品价格，恶化美国中低收入群体生活水平，并推高其未来通胀预期。通胀预期升 高导致美联储降息空间收 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline of American hegemony and the rise of China's economy, suggesting that the U.S. is losing its status as the world's economic engine, especially after the 2008 financial crisis [3][5] - It highlights the increasing military presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region as a response to its economic challenges, with new defense agreements with Japan and enhanced cooperation with South Korea [5][10] - The article notes that the bilateral trade between China and the U.S. exceeded $700 billion in 2022, emphasizing the interdependence of the two economies [7] Group 2 - The article points out the shrinking middle class in the U.S., with the percentage of middle-class individuals dropping from 61% in 1971 to 50% in 2021, indicating growing economic inequality [8] - It references Henry Kissinger's warning about the need for a new type of relationship between China and the U.S. to avoid escalating tensions that could lead to conflict [10][12] - The article concludes by reflecting on the historical context of American imperialism and its implications for current global dynamics, suggesting that the essence of American imperialism remains unchanged despite economic and social developments [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic misjudgment by the U.S. regarding China, highlighting that the U.S. underestimated China's determination and response to tariffs [1][3] - It mentions that the U.S. has faced significant challenges in its trade war with China, with American retailers warning about the consequences of ongoing tariffs [1][5] - The article indicates that China has successfully shifted its orders from the U.S. to other countries, making it difficult for the U.S. to revert to previous trade conditions even if it softens its stance [7] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. is struggling with internal economic pressures, including the Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates amidst a challenging trade environment [5] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has not secured any new trade agreements with other countries, which complicates its position in the ongoing trade conflict [7] - The article suggests that the timeline for significant changes in U.S. trade policy is limited, as the upcoming midterm elections may restrict the administration's ability to enact substantial reforms [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's tariff strategy is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of trade deficits and the decline of American manufacturing, which are rooted in structural problems related to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Deficits - Trump's perception of trade deficits as a loss is criticized as a flawed logic, equating it to a one-sided transaction [1][3]. - The trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's unique position as the global reserve currency, leading to high demand and appreciation of the dollar, which in turn raises production costs in the U.S. [3][6]. - The U.S. has a long-standing reliance on imports due to high domestic production costs, resulting in a growing trade deficit [8][11]. Group 2: Manufacturing Challenges - The high cost of labor in the U.S. due to the dollar's strength makes domestic manufacturing less competitive compared to imports [3][8]. - Trump's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs is deemed impractical, as it does not address the fundamental cost issues associated with U.S. production [9][10]. Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $34.5 trillion, with annual interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge [16][18]. - The increasing reliance on short-term debt due to high interest rates poses additional risks, with a substantial amount of debt maturing soon [19][20]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - While tariffs could generate significant revenue (estimated at over $800 billion from a 20% tariff on $4.11 trillion in imports), they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying economic issues [23][24]. - The tariffs may serve as a negotiating tool to encourage other countries to lower their tariffs on U.S. products, potentially alleviating some trade imbalances [26][32]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The article suggests that Trump's tariffs are partly aimed at forcing countries to choose sides in the global economic landscape, particularly against China, which has become a significant competitor in manufacturing [34][38]. - The potential for increased prices and inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs could undermine the country's global credibility and economic stability [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article concludes that regardless of the effectiveness of Trump's policies, the U.S. may face a period of economic hardship, necessitating resilience and adaptability from both the U.S. and its trading partners [40][41].

马来西亚前总理马哈蒂尔于4月24日对特朗普政府的高关税政策提出尖锐批评，预言其"撑不过三个月"，并称美国人民将因生活成本激增而发起大规模抗 议。 这一观点虽带有政治博弈色彩，但其核心逻辑直指美国经济结构的内在矛盾。结合当前局势，其预测的合理性与局限性值得深入探讨。 马哈蒂尔为特朗普设定的"三个月期限"，本质上是对美国政治韧性与社会忍耐力的评估。 尽管抗议活动席卷50州，但特朗普在共和党选民中仍保有93%支持率，党内建制派尚未形成统一反关税阵线。国会《贸易审查法案》虽试图限制总统关税 权，但通过概率较低，短期难改政策走向。 马哈蒂尔的批判立足于美国经济对全球供应链的深度依赖。他指出，美国"几乎没有本土产品"，长期依赖进口维持低成本消费，即便苹果iPhone等本土品 牌的生产也高度集中于海外。 这种"去工业化"特征导致本土制造业空心化，供应链自主性严重缺失。以iPhone为例，其全球生产网络由中国、印度等国代工厂主导，美国仅承担设计、 营销等高附加值环节。若对中国产iPhone加征120%关税，其本土零售价将远超国际市场，而美国短期内无法重建同类产能，必然引发供应短缺与消费者 不满。 这种逻辑与2025年4月美国 ...

Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The dominance of the dollar was established post-World War II with the Bretton Woods system, supported by the strong economic power of the United States [3][5] - The dollar's status as the primary currency is reinforced by its significant share in global foreign exchange reserves, accounting for over 65% [7] - The dollar's position allows U.S. companies to mitigate exchange rate risks and attract substantial capital inflows into its financial markets [7] Group 2: Emerging Currency Challenges - The Indian Rupee has gained traction among developing countries, with agreements to settle oil transactions in Rupees, although India's economic development remains a limiting factor [9][14] - Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system has prompted a shift towards Ruble settlements for energy exports, which could challenge the dollar's dominance if successful [11][13] - The Chinese Yuan is emerging as a strong competitor to the dollar, supported by China's robust economic growth and increasing global acceptance [14][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The increasing reliance on the Yuan by countries like Brazil, which saw a threefold increase in its foreign reserves in Yuan, indicates a growing trend away from the dollar [16][18] - The long-term potential for the Yuan to challenge the dollar hinges on China's comprehensive economic strength and manufacturing capabilities [20] - Overall, while the Rupee and Ruble are making strides, the Yuan is positioned as the most formidable challenger to dollar hegemony in the future [20]