Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade achieved a remarkable 2.4% growth in the first four months of the year, despite a complex international economic environment, showcasing resilience and strong competitiveness in manufacturing [1][9][11]. Trade Performance - In April, China's total foreign trade value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, marking a 5.6% year-on-year increase, contributing to the overall growth in the first four months [3][5]. - April's trade performance was the second highest for the same month historically, indicating robust trade activity despite external challenges [11]. Key Drivers of Growth - Traditional export sectors, particularly machinery and electrical products, including electric vehicles, continued to see growth [8]. - Emerging markets, especially ASEAN and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, experienced rapid growth, enhancing trade relationships [8][15]. - Private enterprises remained the mainstay of foreign trade growth, demonstrating their significant role in the sector [8]. Economic Resilience - The data reflects China's economic resilience, supported by effective policy adjustments and the adaptability of market participants [9][26]. - The ability to quickly adjust to trade frictions and supply chain disruptions highlights the strength of China's foreign trade system [11]. Structural Optimization - Imports are undergoing structural optimization, aligning with the demand for high-quality supply and supporting long-term economic growth [16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a transformation towards value creation, with a focus on green, low-carbon, and intelligent products [13][24]. Policy Support - Coordinated policy measures, including export tax rebates and trade facilitation, have stabilized business confidence and created a favorable environment for enterprises [18][20]. - The stable exchange rate of the yuan and decreasing logistics costs have further enhanced supply chain efficiency [20]. Future Outlook - The cultivation of new growth drivers in technology innovation, digital transformation, and green development presents significant potential for future growth [22]. - The ongoing upgrade of high-tech and strategic emerging industries, alongside traditional industry enhancements, is expected to drive economic recovery [24].

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first quarter reached 31 trillion yuan, approximately 60% of the United States' GDP of 53.22 trillion yuan [1][6] - Despite global economic challenges, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing last year's growth by 0.1 percentage points [6][13] Consumption and Investment - Consumer spending contributed 2.8 percentage points to economic growth, indicating strong market activity [8] - Industrial production also played a role, adding 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth [8] Export Performance - In March, China's export growth surged to 13.5%, driven by businesses rushing to ship goods before tariffs took effect [10] - The trade surplus with the U.S. reached 76.6 billion USD, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of Chinese businesses [10] Manufacturing and Industrial Growth - China's manufacturing sector is shifting from low-value products to high-value items like drones and solar panels, achieving a growth rate of 9.7% [13] - Investment data, excluding real estate, showed an 8.3% increase, indicating a robust industrial base [13] U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. GDP figure appears inflated, with underlying issues such as a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter contraction and rising inflation affecting consumer purchasing power [15][19] - The U.S. faces a crisis of hollowed-out industries and high debt levels, raising questions about the sustainability of its economic growth [21] Trade War Dynamics - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has led to a strategic economic confrontation, with China leveraging its large domestic market and comprehensive industrial chain [22][24] - China's consumer market saw a 5.6% growth in retail sales, supported by government incentives to stimulate consumption [22][24] Technological and Energy Transition - China is advancing in sectors like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, positioning itself as a leader in the global market [26] - The U.S. struggles with manufacturing challenges, as seen in Intel's budget overruns and slow construction progress in Ohio [26][28] Regional Trade Shifts - In response to U.S. trade barriers, China has increased exports to ASEAN countries at a rate three times faster than to the U.S. [28] - China's policy toolbox remains robust, with initiatives like rural revitalization and new infrastructure projects yet to be fully utilized [28]

Economic Resilience and Potential - The core viewpoint emphasizes China's strong economic resilience, potential, and vitality, asserting that the long-term positive fundamentals will not change [1] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China highlights the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development [1] Trade and Export Performance - In the first quarter, China's import and export scale reached a historical high, with exports amounting to 6.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [3] - Despite external challenges such as tariffs, Chinese products remain in high demand in international markets, with significant orders continuing to flow from the U.S. [3][6] - Alibaba's international platform ranks among the top three e-commerce apps in the U.S., indicating strong consumer interest in Chinese products [3] Manufacturing and Supply Chain Strength - China's manufacturing sector shows robust growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, outpacing the previous year's growth rate [12] - The establishment of a complete industrial ecosystem in regions like Hubei has led to high local supply chain integration, with over 95% local sourcing for automotive parts [11] - The production of key industrial products has seen significant growth, with nearly 70% of major products experiencing an increase in output [16] Innovation and Technological Advancement - The focus on innovation and quality improvement is crucial for enhancing competitiveness, with advancements in green, digital, and intelligent manufacturing [7][14] - The development of new technologies, such as flexible solar cells with a conversion efficiency of 23.8%, showcases China's commitment to overcoming technological challenges [14] Global Trade Partnerships - China is a major trading partner for over 150 countries, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries accounting for 51.1% of total foreign trade in the first quarter [9] - The 137th Canton Fair attracted over 220,000 foreign buyers from 219 countries, indicating strong global interest in Chinese products [9] Private Sector Growth - Private enterprises in China have shown resilience, with their added value increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of all industrial enterprises [20] - The number of registered private enterprises has exceeded 57 million, reflecting the dynamic nature of the private sector [21]

Economic Overview - China's economy showed a strong start in the first quarter, with key indicators such as industrial output, service sector growth, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all improving compared to the previous year [1][2] - The resilience and internal stability of the Chinese economy are continuously strengthening despite challenges from the international environment [1] Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, contributing 36.3% to macroeconomic growth [2] - Profits for large-scale industrial enterprises returned to positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and manufacturing profits rose by 7.6% [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly in railways, shipping, aerospace, and other transport equipment, showed significant revenue and profit growth, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force for the economy [2] Trade and Policy Responses - China's foreign trade demonstrated strong resilience in the first quarter, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs for the same period [3] - The government is actively enhancing open policies and platforms to create a "safety zone" against external shocks [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted both subsidized and non-subsidized product consumption, suggesting a need for further promotion of this initiative to boost consumer spending and innovation [3] Employment and Economic Stability - The focus on stabilizing employment remains crucial, with an emphasis on key industries and groups, combining short-term support with long-term optimization [3]

Core Insights - China's economic performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, and a record high in import and export scale [3][5][10] - The 137th Canton Fair and the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo showcased strong international interest, with significant participation from global buyers [2][3][9] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2023 was higher than anticipated, indicating robust economic recovery [3][5] - The import and export scale reached a historical high, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters [3][6] Group 2: Trade Events - The 137th Canton Fair attracted 148,585 overseas buyers from 216 countries, marking a 20.2% increase compared to the previous session [2][3] - The 5th Consumer Products Expo featured over 1,700 companies and 4,200 brands, with participation from 70+ countries, setting a record for scale [3][9] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - China is recognized as a stabilizing force in global trade amidst rising uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs [6][8][10] - The ASEAN region remains China's largest trading partner, with a 7.1% year-on-year growth in trade [6][10] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - China is committed to expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, which is expected to create greater opportunities for global businesses [7][10] - The country aims to enhance its role in the global trade system by continuing to open up and share development opportunities [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

每周思考总第619期 《 A股仍在政策窗口期 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月9日累计收益6.11%。 上周市场重回上行，沪深300指数涨幅1.39%，上证综指周涨幅1.56%，中证500指数周涨幅 2.63%。 上周我们标题观点提示"A股节奏以我为主"，实际A股在海外美股标普单周大跌3%背景下， 依旧实现中阳反弹，与我们预判吻合 。 基本面上，1-2国内进出口平稳，美欧关系出现间隙。 国内方面，上周继续披露1-2月多项经济数 据，进出口整体保持高度韧性符合我们预期，此前已发布的PMI数据预示了2月关税对中国经济影响 依旧在可控范围内，周末发布的物价数据虽双双低于市场预期，但考虑到春节期间物价季节波动因 素，数据趋势仍有待后续再确认，全国两会也给出全年经济目标及财政赤字指引，国内经济整体平稳 可控；海外方面， 上周我们提到了俄乌停战谈判对全球地缘政治关系的深刻长远影响，简要更新谈 判进程，美方宣布暂停对乌军援，俄方加大进攻力度并基本保卫乌军库尔斯克方面突进主力1万人， 战场形势的发展与我们上周给出的推演基本完全一致 ，以上都是 ...