1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Fundamental - based Judgments - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium, zinc, caustic soda, plastic, ferromanganese - silicon, live pigs, ferrosilicon, SSE 50 stock index futures, five - year treasury bond futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, corn, eggs, urea, methanol, pulp, logs, offset printing paper, red dates, coking coal, soda ash, glass, apples, coke [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Ethylene glycol, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial silicon, thirty - year treasury bond futures, ten - year treasury bond futures, two - year treasury bond futures, synthetic rubber [2] - **Oscillating**: Lead, zinc, aluminum, tin, copper, palm oil, plastic, rebar, corn, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [2][4] - **Oscillating偏多**: Rubber, polysilicon, bottle chips, PTA, staple fiber, p - xylene, fuel oil, cotton, cotton yarn [2] - **Trend多头**: None Quant - based Judgments - **偏空**: Rapeseed meal, sugar, PTA, methanol, lead, rubber, coke [4] - **Oscillating**: Zinc, palm oil, plastic, aluminum, rebar, tin, copper, soybean No.2, glass, PVC, soybean No.1, asphalt, gold, coking coal, polypropylene, ferromanganese - silicon, silver, Zhengzhou cotton [4] - **偏多**: Soybean meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, iron ore, eggs, corn starch, hot - rolled coil [4] 3. Key Points by Directory Macro News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and deploy the work on improving Party conduct, building a clean government and combating corruption in 2026, emphasizing anti - corruption and enhancing the comprehensive effectiveness of corruption governance [6] - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" mark, and the on - shore RMB approached "7". The RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026 without a unilateral trend [6] - JD announced its 2025 year - end bonus plan, with 92% of employees getting full or excess bonuses, and the total bonus input increasing by over 70% year - on - year. There are also rumors of salary increases at BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [6] - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products, promoted compliant rare - earth magnet exports, and hoped for a balanced solution for TikTok's agreement with investors [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the IPO application of Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company on the Growth Enterprise Market to pass the review [7] - Israeli officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran over Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [7] - Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026: "job - less productivity improvement", the return of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, and a sharp rise in commodity and energy prices [7] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.3%. The market turnover was 1.94 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and if bond purchases reached 350 billion yuan this month, it would be the largest - scale operation. The urgency for interest - rate cuts is low [9] - Pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity repair and structure. If the conditions are met, the index may strengthen, and focus on IH [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The capital is balanced and loose, and the capital interest rates are stable [10] - The central bank's MLF operation had a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Without interest - rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline, and bonds within 10 years will oscillate [10] Black Commodities Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term. Pay attention to the production at coal mines, safety inspections, downstream raw - material winter storage, and changes in hot - metal production [12] - The production of coal mines has decreased slightly, and the third round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The demand for raw materials from steel mills has declined in the short term [12] - Due to "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the potential negative feedback from the steel industry may limit the price increase [12] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the end - of - session rally may stimulate hedging, and the sustainability of high prices needs attention. Manganese - silicon is weak, and focus on the new capacity launch before the end of January. In the medium term, both are bearish on rallies [13] - On December 25, the auction price of Hongliulin lump coal increased, with a decrease in the auction volume [13] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [14] - Soda ash supply is at a low level due to some enterprises' maintenance, and cost increases have weakened the upstream's willingness to start production. Glass supply reduction expectations have less impact, and spot sentiment is weak [14] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of December 25, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Tianjin and Guangdong saw inventory declines. After the fading of macro - positive factors, the price is expected to oscillate downward. Hold short positions [16] - In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 13.84% and a cumulative increase of 33.74% from January to November [16][17] Lead - As of December 25, the social inventory of lead decreased. The trading activity in the lead spot market declined. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Wait and see, and aggressive investors can enter short positions at high prices [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening in the short term, but the long - term demand is positive. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [20] Industrial Silicon - Environmental disturbances in Xinjiang and strong coking - coal prices have provided some valuation - repair space, but the rebound is under pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21] Polysilicon - Exchange risk - control measures have tightened, and the trading volume may cool down. The expected price increase of downstream silicon wafers will support the spot price of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong [22] Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The pre - festival restocking demand has boosted the cotton price. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, while the global production has slightly decreased [23][24] - The domestic commercial and port inventories are accumulating, but the low industrial inventory of textile enterprises and policy expectations support the price [24] Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are undervalued, with a technical rebound. Wait and see [25] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025/26, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking will start [26][27] Eggs - The commodity market sentiment is strong, and the pre - January festival stocking demand may increase, leading to short - covering in the near - term contracts and a price rebound. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price increase space is limited before the Spring Festival [28] - The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in the laying - hen inventory, but this expectation cannot be verified or falsified for now. Wait and see [28][29] Apples - The apple futures price may oscillate. The apple出库 is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the sales in the distribution areas are slow. The good - quality apple price is firm [30][31] - The national cold - storage inventory ratio is 53.31%, and the inventory is 7.021 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Citrus fruits are on the market, affecting apple sales [31] Corn - The corn price may oscillate in the short term. Wait and see and pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment [33] - The domestic corn spot price is mixed. The supply - demand mismatch is easing, but the far - term contracts face pressure from supply [33] Red Dates - The market is in a stage of concentrated new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales progress in the distribution areas and downstream purchasing sentiment [34] Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak. The expectation of a sharp price increase during the Winter Solstice was false, and the price is expected to oscillate downward. Go short on the near - term contracts on rallies [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The escalating situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices, but the impact is limited. In the medium term, the oil price may decline due to oversupply and the easing of geopolitical tensions [37] - The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [37] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical and macro - factors dominate the oil price. The supply of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [38] Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand, but the upstream losses may provide some support. The price is expected to oscillate [39] Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on the strategy of buying RU and selling BR. The butadiene inventory has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may not maintain high prices [40] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. Do not be overly bearish in the short term. Consider a slightly long - biased allocation for the far - term contracts after the inventory reduction is smooth [41][42] Caustic Soda - The near - term contracts of caustic soda are close to the real - world situation and are relatively weak, while the far - term contracts have many macro - positive expectations. Keep a bearish view on the main 03 contract [43] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44] Polyester Industry Chain - The market benefits have been gradually realized, and the downstream negative feedback is increasing. Consider reducing long positions on rallies [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures price has entered the delivery logic. The supply is abundant globally, and the demand has both supporting and constraining factors. The price is expected to oscillate [47] Pulp - The pulp port inventory has decreased continuously, and the spot price is firm. The market sentiment has improved, but there may be hedging pressure. Wait and see in the short term [48] Logs - The log market fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price has stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance [49] Urea - The urea market is expected to oscillate. The upstream production reduction is positive for the market. Pay attention to the basis pressure when the futures expectations are too strong [50]

1. 外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首次，最高触及6.9985。 与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼 近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15个月新高。展望明年，业内普遍预计人民币汇率有望继续升值，但不会出现单边走势。 2. LOF集体狂欢后资金炒作退潮。 在前一日经历20余只LOF批量涨停后，12月25日，国泰商品LOF、黄金主题LOF、国投瑞盈LOF、国投白银LOF、中信 保诚商品LOF全部跌停，嘉实黄金LOF、黄金LOF均跌超9%。多家基金公司宣布旗下LOF限购升级，黄金LOF申购限额由5000元下调至10元。国投白银 LOF 12月26日开市起停牌1小时，12月29日起A类份额限购金额由500元降至100元，C类份额暂停申购。 3 ."年终奖"话题引发热议。京东发布2025年终奖公告，京东集团92%的员工拿满甚至拿到超额年终奖，年终奖总投入同比增幅超过70%，预计将创下行业 今年最大涨幅。 其中京东采销今年将实现平均25薪，上不封顶。近期巨头涨薪消息不断，网传比亚迪已对技术研发人员实施涨薪，调薪幅度多数在1000 元左右，字节跳动、宁德时代涨薪消 ...

近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同 作用的结果。专家认为，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。伴随美联储继续开展降 息，市场预期将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 12月25日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，上调79个基点；中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升 幅创2025年8月27日以来最大。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息 预期增强，驱动美元指数回落。11月下旬至今美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部 环境，中国经济展现出较强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机构为中国经 济投了"信任票"，纷纷上调中国经济增速预测值，外资配置人民币资产兴趣增强。 今年以来，得益于出口市场多元化程度提升，以及我国商品出口保持较快增长，人民币汇率升值或推动 部分外贸企业季节性结汇需求释放。 "临近年底，企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的 结汇需求可能加速释放。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为 ...

12月25日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，上调79个基点；中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升 幅创2025年8月27日以来最大。 近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同 作用的结果。专家认为，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。伴随美联储继续开展降 息，市场预期将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 "从内部因素看，中国经济的韧性与吸引力构成坚实的基本面支撑，特别是经济数据边际改善与政策预 期升温，为人民币汇率提供了支持。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，出口展现出超 预期韧性，前11个月中国贸易顺差首次超过1万亿美元，中国资本市场的亮眼表现也吸引外资持续流 入，国际投资者对中国国债的持有规模不断扩大，这些因素都直接增加了人民币的买盘力量。 庞溟认为，尽管近期人民币汇率持续走强，但预计后续仍将围绕7.0双向波动，出现单边快速升值的概 率较低。实体企业尤其是有涉外业务的企业，需积极构建系统性汇率风险管理能力，将汇率波动纳入日 常经营决策。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方 ...

12月25日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，上调79个基点；中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升 幅创2025年8月27日以来最大。 近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同 作用的结果。专家认为，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。伴随美联储继续开展降 息，市场预期将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 "从内部因素看，中国经济的韧性与吸引力构成坚实的基本面支撑，特别是经济数据边际改善与政策预 期升温，为人民币汇率提供了支持。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，出口展现出超 预期韧性，前11个月中国贸易顺差首次超过1万亿美元，中国资本市场的亮眼表现也吸引外资持续流 入，国际投资者对中国国债的持有规模不断扩大，这些因素都直接增加了人民币的买盘力量。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息 预期增强，驱动美元指数回落。11月下旬至今美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部 环境，中国经济展现出较强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机 ...

企业出口高增的结汇需求在年底集中释放，而美联储一再降息推动的美元走弱趋势，共同将人民币重新推回6时代。 2025年12月25日，离岸人民币对美元即时汇率升破7.0大关。自今年4月触及低点7.3498后，人民币呈现"先抑后扬、震荡走升"的趋势，最终在年末重返"6时 代"。 从宏观经济角度看，这一变化不仅是中国经济超市场预期与美元走弱交织共振的结果，更将直接影响到每个人的投资决策和资产配置。 01 汇率破局 人民币对美元中间价报7.0392，较前一交易日上调79个基点。这一关键心理关口的突破，标志着自2024年9月以来人民币首次回到7以下水平。 回顾2025年全年，人民币汇率走出了一条明显的V型轨迹。Wind资讯数据显示，在岸人民币对美元汇率从4月9日的年内最低点7.3498开始震荡上行。 截至5月底已上涨1.48%，随后持续走强直至突破7.0关口。与此同时，美元指数从年初的109高位一路下滑，年内累计下跌超过8%，目前已回落至100以内。 截至2025年第一季度，外资仅持有A股市值的3.4%，这限制了资金流入带来的实质提振作用。 02 升值动力 此次人民币汇率升值的背后，是国内经济韧性与外部环境变化共同作用的结 ...

临近年末，人民币汇率持续走强。12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0这一关键心理关口，最高触及 6.996，这也是自2024年9月以来的首次突破。 南华期货在最新研报中指出，这标志着人民币在经历了较长时间在7上方运行后，重新展现出强劲的升 值动能。尽管在触及6区间后有所回调，但当日整体的强势走势清晰地表明，市场对人民币的信心正在 增强。 对于本轮人民币汇率升值破7的原因，市场人士普遍分析认为，是内外因素共振的结果。 （文章来源：中国经营报） 不过，国贸期货在研报中进一步分析指出，目前，即期汇率已经强于中间价，两者差距还在不断走扩， 未来或面临回归修正。待季节性因素消退后，人民币升值动能或走弱。未来人民币汇率的走势需重点关 注两个方面：一是国内股市短期修复行情以及年初配置抢跑下对于外资流入的吸引。二是关注中间价的 政策指引信号。 总体来看，朱振鑫认为，人民币升值是一个中期趋势，从2024年开始可能持续2—3年。 薛洪言也表示，尽管市场情绪偏向乐观，但考虑到政策层面强调汇率稳定，且国际经济环境仍存在不确 定性，人民币短期内虽可能维持偏强，但更大概率会呈现双向波动的格局，出现单边快速升值的可能性 较低。 随着人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD has broken the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, indicating a significant appreciation trend driven by a weakening USD and stable Chinese economic fundamentals [3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily attributed to the weakening of the USD, which has seen a decline of about 3% since late November [4]. - China's trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2025 reached $1.0758 trillion, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's strength [4]. - The increase in corporate demand for currency settlement at year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, although this "settlement tide" is not the main driver of the current appreciation [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Experts caution against expecting a new cycle of sustained RMB appreciation, suggesting that the exchange rate will likely exhibit two-way fluctuations rather than a unilateral trend [7][11]. - The future trajectory of the USD is uncertain, with predictions of a potential rebound after a period of decline, which could diminish the RMB's appreciation momentum [7][8]. - The complexity of China's external economic environment, including trade relations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries, adds uncertainty to the RMB's future [9][10]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - The appreciation of the RMB presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses, benefiting capital markets and importers while posing risks for exporters [15][16]. - Exporters are experiencing exchange rate losses due to the RMB's rapid appreciation, affecting their international price competitiveness and order flow [16]. - Companies are advised to adopt systematic risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a neutral stance on currency risk [17].

来源：@经济观察报微博 北京时间12月25日11时45分，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9973，较前一交易日上涨103个基点，正式升破"7"整数关口，为2024年10月以来首次。12月以 来，在岸与离岸人民币对美元均升值约1.0%，市场普遍认为，人民币正加速重返"6时代"。这一变化不仅关乎宏观金融指标，更直接作用于亿万居民的消 费成本与企业的经营利润。 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | 디 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH | | | | | | 今开 6.9963 | | 7.0072 | 最高 | 7.0108 | | 昨收 -0.16% -0.0113 | | 7.0076 | 最低 | 6.9941 | | 点差 10日 | 0 | -0.78% | 60日 | -1.91% | | 振幅 20日 | 0.24% | -1.10% | 今年来 | -4.64% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多, | | | | 105 | | 7.0211 | | | 0.19% 卖出 (ask) | | | | | | 买入 (bid) | | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：粤开志恒宏观 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长：罗志恒 首席宏观分析师：马家进 摘要 12月25日，人民币对美元离岸汇率盘中升破7.0，在岸汇率距离"破7"也仅一步之遥。 1、2025年人民币对美元汇率显著走强，尤其是11月下旬以来呈加速升值态势，但人民币对一篮子货币 汇率仍小幅贬值。截至12月24日，2025年人民币对美元汇率升值4%，但美元指数下跌9.7%，表明美元 贬值是人民币对美元汇率升值的主要原因。截至12月19日，人民币对一篮子货币汇率的CFETS人民币汇 率指数下降3.5%，反映出人民币对非美货币总体贬值。 2、人民币对美元汇率升值，主要受四股力量驱动：一是美元指数走弱，人民币对美元汇率被动走强； 二是中国股市走强，人民币资产吸引力上升；三是年底出口企业结汇需求上升，同时人民币汇率升值进 一步推高结汇意愿，企业结汇与汇率升值相互促进；四是中国人民银行为保持人民币对一篮子货币汇率 稳定，引导人民币对美元汇率合理有序升值。 3、市场担忧人民币对美元汇率升值会对中国出口造成不利影响，但需要注意的是，真正影响出口的， 不是人 ...