1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp [4][5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Live pigs, cotton, sugar, logs [2][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The MPOB report has limited impact on oils and fats, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical resistance. The protein meal downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, with spot prices weaker than the futures. The bullish sentiment for corn/starch is rising, and the 09 contract has broken through the previous high. The pork reserve purchase has temporarily boosted the market sentiment for live pigs. The strength of commodities has driven up the price of rubber, while synthetic rubber has changed little and followed the rebound. The macro - environment affects the sentiment of pulp commodities, and pulp maintains an oscillating trend. The fundamentals of cotton have changed little, and the macro - level has released positive news to boost the futures. The sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the log futures are experiencing a decline due to strong delivery games [1][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports in May were higher than expected, and inventory was slightly lower than expected. May production was 1.7716 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 3.94%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.64%; inventory was 1.9902 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.68% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5% [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and an improvement in the good - to - excellent rate, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday, with palm oil being weaker. The market is focused on Sino - US trade negotiations, the US dollar weakened, and crude oil prices continued to rise. The cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and there is still great uncertainty in US biodiesel and foreign trade policies. The soybean planting progress in the US has reached 90%, and the good - to - excellent rate is 68%. In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas will be normal, and the temperature is expected to be high in mid - June. A large number of imported soybeans are arriving in China, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to rise. The MPOB report on palm oil has limited impact, and the short - term production increase pressure may weaken marginally. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high and the supply is sufficient [4]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the oils and fats market may operate within a range. Recently, there may be a rebound demand for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper technical resistance [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 10, 2025, the international soybean trade basis quotes for US Gulf soybeans were 226 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 7.62% and a year - on - year change of - 20 cents per bushel or - 8.6957%; for US West soybeans, they were 199 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 8.74% and a year - on - year change of - 54 cents per bushel or - 22.7848%; for South American soybeans, they were 180 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 12 cents per bushel or 7.14% and a year - on - year change of - 6 cents per bushel or - 3.4483%. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 34.17 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 20.49 yuan per ton or 149.78% and a year - on - year change of - 74.08 yuan per ton or - 84.412% [4]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, and the precipitation and temperature in the next 15 days will be slightly high. Although the drought in June is not a major problem, it is expected to intensify in the quarterly outlook. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the spot and basis trading volume has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of spot prices. The oil mill's profit margin has increased month - on - month. It is expected that the soybean arrivals will increase in the next few months, the oil mill's operating rate will remain high, the soybean meal inventory will increase seasonally, and the basis will be under seasonal pressure. The downstream soybean meal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the downstream has become more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The year - on - year increase in the inventory of breeding sows indicates that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [4]. - **Outlook**: Before weather speculation, US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. Under the dominance of increasing supply pressure in China, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis will continue to be weak. The soybean meal futures will follow the US soybeans to operate within a range [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 30 yuan per ton. The average domestic corn price is 2,391 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 12 yuan per ton and an expanding increase [4]. - **Logic**: The wheat minimum purchase price policy has been launched in Henan over the weekend, which has continuously boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. The import of grains has been continuously tightened, and the expectation of inventory reduction is gradually being realized. The fundamental situation shows that the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants this morning is 116, remaining at a low level. The demand for new corn from downstream feed - using enterprises is limited, but there is still rigid demand for corn in some egg - laying hens, young poultry, and pig feed. Futures prices have continuously risen, which has in turn boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. In the medium term, the import of grains has been continuously tightened, further confirming the expectation of inventory reduction [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Corn and starch are expected to operate with a bullish bias [5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Industry Information**: On June 10, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.01 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week change of 0.79%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13,595 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 0.89% [5]. - **Logic**: After the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the pig - grain ratio has decreased. On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the current inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals remain loose. In the short term, the slaughter weight of live pigs has decreased, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has significantly increased. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets from January to April 2025 has continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third quarter. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level, and the inventory of breeding sows in May has continued to increase month - on - month in the sample points of Steel Union and Yongyi. The terminal consumption has entered the off - season, and the slaughter demand has decreased. The average slaughter weight has decreased month - on - month [1][5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is weak, and in the long term, the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term market is under pressure to sell, and the far - term market is affected by the expectation of inventory clearance and production capacity adjustment, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 13,740 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber is 13,800 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan. The STR20 spot in the free trade zone is 1,715 US dollars, up 5 US dollars. The price of glue entering the dry - glue factory in Yunnan is 13,000 yuan, unchanged; the price of rubber blocks is 12,600 yuan, unchanged. On June 10, the raw material market quotes in Thailand's Hat Yai showed that the price of white sheet rubber was 63.66 baht, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 67.88 baht; the price of glue was 56.25 baht, up 0.25 baht; the price of cup lump was 46.2 baht, up 1 baht. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million units in May this year, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail sales volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [5][6]. - **Logic**: Driven by the strength of commodities, the rubber price has increased, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals have changed little. On the supply side, Thailand is still affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has started to decline under the drag of the futures. On the demand side, the overall recovery of tire production is weak, and the finished - product inventory backlog has been slightly alleviated, but there is still no obvious improvement. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the futures may temporarily stabilize and have a slight rebound [6]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak, and the impact of the commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is relatively large, and the downward trend may continue [6]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber standard delivery products from two major oil companies are as follows: the market price in Shandong is 11,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Yantai Haopu is 11,400 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of butadiene in the central Shandong region is 9,450 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan; the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangyin is 9,100 yuan per ton, down 175 yuan [5]. - **Logic**: The futures followed the broader market to rise slightly yesterday, but the fundamentals have changed little recently. The current futures price has returned to the previous low and the absolute low since listing. The BR fundamentals are relatively neutral, and most private production enterprises have started to reduce production, which may help alleviate the subsequent social inventory pressure. The butadiene market is operating weakly, but the tight supply of spot resources has gradually supported the market sentiment. As the price declines, the phased buying in the market has gradually followed up, and the premium transaction of auctioned goods has boosted the replenishment enthusiasm of middlemen, providing short - term support [7]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the support of the futures after the butadiene price stabilizes. The BR futures are expected to temporarily stabilize, but there is still pressure on the upside [7]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the number of registered warrants in the 2024/2025 season is 10,815. As of June 9, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan per ton week - on - week [7]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen for three consecutive trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, and the market sentiment has been boosted by positive macro - news last week. In the new cotton planting season, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase year - on - year. If there is no extreme weather, the cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season may remain high or even reach a new high, with the market generally expecting it to be around 7 million tons. On the demand side, the downstream production has been stable since the beginning of the year until before the Dragon Boat Festival, and cotton consumption has been rapid. However, since June, the downstream demand has gradually entered the off - season, the enterprise operating rate has decreased, and the finished - product inventory has gradually accumulated. On the inventory side, the cotton inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and the commercial inventory is lower than that of last year and the five - year average, which may support the price [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate on the weak side [7][8]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton week - on - week [9]. - **Logic**: The market has advanced the trading of the expectation of a loose global sugar supply in the 2025/2026 season. In the new season, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The new sugar - making season in Brazil's central - southern region has started, and although the production data as of the first half of May has declined year - on - year, the market's optimistic expectation for the total output remains unchanged. China's 2024/2025 sugar - making season has ended, with a high sales - to - production ratio, a year - on - year decrease in industrial inventory, and a low import volume, but there will be subsequent arrival pressure [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected loose supply in the new season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the decline of the external market has led to a downward shift in valuation, and the sugar price is oscillating weakly [9]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, on the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Maples is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Silver Star is 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of Golden Fish is 4,120 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Logic**: Currently, the pulp supply - demand situation is as follows: the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and there are rumors of maintenance and production conversion for Russian softwood pulp, so the price difference between Russian softwood pulp and other softwood pulps may return to the normal historical level. The continuous production pressure of hardwood pulp is emerging, the US dollar price is continuously decreasing, and the domestic downward space has been opened. The overseas shipment is abundant, and the domestic arrival volume of hardwood pulp is generally high. The demand side is generally weak. In the short term, there are news of strikes and pulp mills' price - holding in the supply side. The previous month's futures rebound was mainly due to the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is now approaching the end. Excluding this factor, the overall pulp supply - demand is weak, and the abundant supply of hardwood pulp suppresses the hardwood pulp price, and the weak demand. The decline in the hardwood pulp price negatively affects the softwood pulp price through the price difference between soft and hard pulp. In the future, due to the weak supply - demand, the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline. The pulp futures are priced based on Russian softwood pulp, and the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts and the production conversion of Russian softwood pulp will continue to drive the futures to resist decline [10]. - **Outlook**: Due to the conflict between the weak supply - demand situation, which is negative for the single - side market, and the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is positive for the futures, the pulp futures are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 770 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter. The LG2507 log futures contract closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, with a basis of - 2 yuan in Jiangsu and - 22 yuan in Rizhao [11]. - **Logic**: Since June, the fundamentals of logs have weakened, and the short - term supply is still accumulating, with the spot price still under pressure. In the futures market, the main log

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for various products: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are rated as "oscillating"; glass and soda ash are also rated as "oscillating weakly" [7][11]. Core Viewpoints - Amid frequent macro - disturbances, the prices of the black series are oscillating near the cost support level. With the approaching off - season, the demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is under pressure to decline from high levels. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices are testing for an upward movement near the support level, waiting for favorable factors, but the upward pressure is still strong [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments, which will remain high until early July. On the demand side, the profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and hot metal production is slightly decreasing but expected to remain high in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, with the arrival of ores shipped during the peak period, the port may see a slight inventory increase, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - **Coking Coal**: Recently, the output of some coal mines has slightly declined due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply of coking coal is still loose. On the demand side, the coke output is showing signs of decline, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the coking profit is shrinking. During the price cut cycle, the coking enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal intensifies. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, so there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, with a reduction of 70 - 75 yuan/ton this time, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. On the supply side, the output of some coking enterprises has slightly declined due to environmental protection and maintenance, but the overall coke output remains stable. The downstream steel mills' enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is weak, and the coking enterprises' coke inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining from a high level, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, with an expectation of further decline in hot metal production. The upstream supply reduction is limited, the demand support is gradually weakening, and there is still room for the coke price to fall under the drag of cost [8][9]. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: On the cost side, the market is cautiously waiting, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of loosening. On the supply side, the production cost has been slightly repaired due to the abundant water period in Yunnan and the electricity price discount in Guangxi, and the supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased, but the manufacturers in Ningxia are still in the red, and their willingness to sell is limited. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season in the black market, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of bargaining. The supply - demand of silicomanganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is still expected to loosen. However, due to the cost - price inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to sell is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply has slightly increased. As the terminal steel use is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, the market sentiment remains cautious, and the cost may still be a drag. The future market should focus on steel procurement and production conditions, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, the demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, the mid - stream inventory has decreased, and there are rumors disturbing the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to loosen, and the sentiment fluctuates repeatedly. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led the futures price down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, the maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [5][11]. Other Products - **Steel**: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, with a significant decline in rebar demand. The hot metal production is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased much, but the hot metal production may have reached its peak. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have weakened this week, but the inventory is still decreasing. The price of the steel futures market is mainly suppressed by the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. With the resumption of Sino - US negotiations, the macro - fluctuations are magnified, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The scrap steel resources are tight, but the market is pessimistic about the off - season demand. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. It is expected that the future price will oscillate following the finished products [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall: The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. For individual products, it gives ratings such as "oscillating" for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, silicon - manganese, and silicon - iron; "oscillating weakly" for glass, soda ash, and coking coal; and "oscillating with a downward view" for coke [7][8][11][12][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market is in a low - level oscillation state. After a short - term rebound driven by favorable news, prices are under pressure again due to the approaching off - season. The demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is facing a decline. Although some production links are in a state of loss, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices of various products are expected to show different trends of oscillation or weakening [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter shipment rush, with an expected seasonal increase in shipment volume, which will remain high until early July [2][7] - Demand: The profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7] - Inventory: The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, the port may have a slight inventory increase when the ore arrives at the port, but the inventory increase range is limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element Coking Coal - Supply: Although the output of some individual coal mines has decreased slightly, most coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transaction of Mongolian coal is limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply is still loose [3][11] - Demand: The coke output has started to decline. Under the environment of increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits, the coke output tends to decline [3][11] - Price: The supply contraction is limited, the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, and the price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected to operate weakly [3][11] Coke - Supply: The coke output is at a high level but has started to decline, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises continues to increase [3][10] - Demand: The molten iron output is declining, and the demand for coke is expected to weaken further [10] - Price: After the third round of price cuts, there is still a downward expectation in the market. The price is expected to face downward pressure [8][10] 3.3 Alloys Silicon - Manganese - Cost: The market is cautiously waiting and watching, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of decline [5][14] - Supply: The production cost in some areas has been slightly repaired, and the supply has increased slightly, but some areas are still in a loss state, and the manufacturers' willingness to ship is limited [5][14] - Demand: The black market is entering the off - season, the market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream has a strong attitude of pressing prices. The steel tenders are in progress, and the pricing is low [5][14] - Price: The supply - demand situation tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to decline. However, due to cost inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to ship is low. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate [5][14] Silicon - Iron - Cost: The cost may still have a dragging effect, and the Lanzhou - carbon market is stable [14] - Supply: The supply has increased slightly [5][14] - Demand: The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious [5][14] - Price: The disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term. The future market should pay attention to steel tenders and production conditions [5][14] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Demand: The off - season demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling [5][12] - Supply: There are expectations of cold - repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists [5][12] - Price: The disk is at a discount to the spot, but the price cut of Hubei's spot guides the disk down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][12] Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming [5][12] - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to be for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass melting may not be sustainable [12] - Price: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12] 3.5 Other Products Steel - Demand: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, especially for rebar [7] - Supply: The molten iron output is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased significantly, but the molten iron output may have reached its peak [7] - Price: Affected by falling raw material prices and pessimistic expectations for domestic demand, the short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7] Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume has decreased again this week, and the resources are slightly tight [8] - Demand: The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process has slightly increased, but the cost of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is in a deeper loss [8] - Price: Due to the pessimistic market expectation for off - season demand, the price of scrap steel is expected to oscillate following the finished products [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - **Methanol**: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | 友朋友 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月9日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | | 票 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月6日 | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8090 | 8030 | ୧୦ | 0.75% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7438 | 7404 | 34 | 0.46% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 652 | 626 | 26 | 4.15% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+280 | 09+280 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | 17822 | 17822 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | elect | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8600 | 8530 | 70 | 0.82% | | | 期价 | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. In the short - term, most products show a trend of volatile fluctuations, while in the long - term, the supply and price trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, consumption, and policy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.2 - 16 yuan/kg, all stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the reduction of supply by large - scale enterprises at the end of the month and the resistance of small farmers support the price, but the increase in supply from secondary fattening and the weak demand limit the price increase. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The overall pig price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit, and short positions can be opened on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options on contracts 07 and 09 and take profit partially [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, and in Beijing 3.39 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the high price restricts the price increase, but the holiday demand and low inventory support the price. After the holiday, the price may be under pressure. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, but the impact of old chicken culling needs to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: For contract 06, hold a light position during the May Day holiday. Contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish in the long - term, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2]. Oil - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean oil主力 contract 07 fell 2.26% to 49.32 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil主力 contract 07 fell 0.53% to 3940 ringgit/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: For palm oil, the export increased in April, but the production also increased, and the inventory is expected to rise. In China, the supply and demand are both weak in April, but the supply will increase in May. For soybean oil, the South American supply is large in the second quarter, and the domestic supply will increase in the future. For rapeseed oil, the supply in Canada is tight, and the domestic inventory will gradually decrease [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for contracts 09 of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, and pay attention to the pressure levels [7]. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1052.5 cents/bushel, and the domestic M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply will increase with the arrival of soybeans and the increase in oil mill operation rate, and the price will decline. In the long - term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price up [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: short on rebounds for contract 09. Long - term: long on dips, and pay attention to the support level. Do long - short spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [7]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 29, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2406 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, but the market is optimistic about the future. In the long - term, the production reduction and decrease in imports drive the price up, but the substitutes limit the upside [7]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish in general, wait for dips to go long, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of most futures products showed fluctuations. For example, the CBOT soybean active contract fell 8.75 cents/bushel, the soybean meal主力 contract fell 21 yuan/ton, and the CBOT corn active contract fell 12 cents/bushel [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2) Core Viewpoint - The market risk sentiment has recovered, and non - ferrous metals once strengthened. However, the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, so the lead price may remain volatile [3] 3) Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On April 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.91/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all decreased compared with the previous trading day. The lead scrap price also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 17,005 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 40,549 lots, an increase of 2,570 lots, and the position was 38,819 lots, an increase of 86 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,015 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous afternoon [2] - **Inventory**: On April 28, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from last week. As of April 28, the LME lead inventory was 271,025 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, and the arbitrage strategy is to be suspended due to the current supply - demand imbalance in the lead market [3]