Key Points - China's foreign exchange reserves increased slightly to $33,222 billion in August, marking a rise of $299 billion or 0.91% from July [2][3] - The public fund sales fee management regulations have been revised, leading to an estimated reduction of sales fees by approximately 30 billion yuan, benefiting investors [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, suggesting a stable demand [3] - The total revenue of listed companies in the first half of the year reached 35.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.16%, and net profit increased by 2.54% [3] - The A-share market saw 2.65 million new accounts opened in August, a year-on-year increase of 165% [4] - The electric vehicle market in China recorded retail sales of 1.079 million units in August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a state of oscillatory repair, and the stock - bond effect remains strong. The current bond market trend is restricted by changes in market risk preference, and short - term capital liquidity is the core logic affecting bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the performance of domestic fundamental data in August. If economic growth momentum continues to slow down and the exchange rate remains stable, it may boost the market's expectation of aggregate easing policies in the fourth quarter. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [4][98] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury futures rose by 0.75%, 0.43%, 0.28%, and 0.06% respectively this week. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, while their positions all increased [13][17][23][31] - **Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends this week. The yields to maturity of 1 - 2Y bonds increased by 0.9 - 2bp, those of 3 - 10Y bonds decreased by 1.2 - 2bp, and the yield to maturity of 30Y bonds increased by about 1bp to 2.03% [11][68] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: On September 1, the SCO Summit issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. On September 3, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss bond - related issues. Also on September 3, 12 provinces raised the minimum wage standard this year. On September 4, the Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling in China [34][35] - **Overseas Situations**: On September 3, there was a global long - term treasury bond sell - off. The yield of 30 - year US treasury bonds exceeded 5%, and the yields of bonds in other countries also reached high levels. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the economic activity in most regions of the US remained almost unchanged. On September 4, the ADP employment data in the US in August was lower than expected, and the initial jobless claims reached a new high since June, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September [35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads of Treasury Bonds**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds narrowed significantly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury futures widened slightly. The inter - period spread of 10 - year contracts narrowed significantly, and that of 30 - year contracts widened. The inter - period spreads of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed slightly [44][48][52] - **Main Contract Positions**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Bond Yields**: The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.43%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds narrowed slightly [73] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 106.84 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 227.31 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 120.47 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.44% [75] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 110.1925 billion yuan, the total repayment was 68.6488 billion yuan, and the net financing was 41.5438 billion yuan [80] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1064, with a cumulative increase of 71 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates weakened [86] - **US Bond Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated upwards, and the VIX index declined slightly [91] - **A - share Risk Premium Rate**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI expanded faster. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, and the economic recovery slowed down. In the future, policies to stabilize growth may accelerate [97] - **Overseas Situations**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 6 consecutive months, and the service PMI rebounded. The labor market showed signs of weakness, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September increased [97] - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market is restricted by market risk preference. It is recommended to focus on domestic fundamental data in August. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [98]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has been adjusted with a latest quote of 120.23 yuan as of September 5, 2025, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 28.04% and a transaction volume of 8.559 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 30.604 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with a net inflow of 291 million yuan recently [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been net inflows on three days, totaling 566 million yuan, suggesting a positive trend in fund inflows [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a joint meeting to enhance cooperation and promote the stable development of the bond market, which is expected to positively impact liquidity and reduce future bond supply shocks [1] - The financial team indicates that improved coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is favorable for liquidity performance and may provide a recovery opportunity for the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board highlighted concerns about the independence of the Fed and whether Miran would act as a puppet of President Trump [3][6][10]. Group 1: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Miran emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, stating it is "crucial" for the U.S. economy and denied any pressure to commit to supporting interest rate cuts [6][8]. - During the hearing, Miran faced skepticism from Senate Banking Committee members regarding his ability to maintain the Fed's independence, with some questioning his past proposals that could undermine it [4][10]. - Miran criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence, asserting that the Fed should resist actions beyond its core responsibilities [9][11]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Nomination Process - The nomination process appears to be influenced by party politics, with Republican senators generally supporting Miran while Democrats express concerns about his potential impact on the Fed's independence [5][10]. - Miran's arrangement to take an unpaid leave from his role as a White House economic advisor during his tenure as a Fed governor raised eyebrows among senators, who viewed it as a conflict of interest [13][19]. - The White House is actively lobbying Republican senators to expedite Miran's confirmation before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [36][37]. Group 3: Economic Perspectives and Policy Views - Miran argued that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, suggesting that any price fluctuations are temporary [29][30]. - He expressed skepticism about the bond market's resistance to interest rate cuts, predicting that it would not react negatively to a potential rate decrease [32][37]. - Miran's views on economic policy, including the need for a comprehensive approach beyond just monetary policy, indicate a divergence from mainstream Fed perspectives [30][37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and outlook of the Hua Bao New Opportunity Mixed A Fund, which reported a profit of 29.44 thousand yuan in the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0107 yuan and a net value growth rate of 0.68% [3][4] - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.829 yuan, and the fund manager team, consisting of Lin Hao and Tang Xueqian, has managed three funds with positive returns over the past year [3][4] - The fund's scale reached 43.32 million yuan by the end of the first half of 2025, with a total of 2,220 holders owning 24.69 million shares [31][34] Group 2 - The fund's recent performance metrics indicate a three-month net value growth rate of 5.33%, a six-month growth rate of 5.60%, and a one-year growth rate of 10.43%, ranking 29th out of 142 comparable funds in the last three months [7] - The fund's weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 13.94 times, which is lower than the industry average of 18.03 times, indicating a potentially undervalued position [11] - The fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 was 0.03%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) was 0.12%, suggesting modest growth in the underlying assets [17] Group 3 - The fund's recent half-year turnover rate was approximately 66.22%, which has been consistently below the industry average for four years [37] - The top ten holdings of the fund include major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Bank of Communications, and China Life Insurance, indicating a stable investment strategy [40] - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio stands at 0.4031, ranking 46th out of 142 comparable funds, reflecting a reasonable risk-adjusted return [25]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 212.6 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 4, with a total bid amount of 212.6 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 212.6 billion yuan. On the same day, 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank has conducted net withdrawals for four consecutive days; however, the interbank funding conditions remain stable, with the overnight repo weighted average rate around 1.30%. The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also maintain at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against certificates of deposit and credit bonds, with the latest quotes around 1.45%-1.48% for overnight and 1.46%-1.48% for seven-day funds [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.66%, remaining stable compared to the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown mixed movements, with government bond futures closing mostly higher. The 30-year main contract rose by 0.26%, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.13%, the 5-year main contract went up by 0.06%, while the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01% [10]. Group 5: Policy and Industry Developments - The central bank plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 5, with a term of 3 months (91 days), to maintain liquidity in the banking system [11]. - The State Council issued an opinion to enhance the sports industry, aiming to cultivate influential sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the total scale of the sports industry expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan. Financial support for the sports industry will be increased, including optimizing financing services and encouraging the issuance of bonds and asset securitization [11]. - The China Securities Association has initiated a quality evaluation for investment banking and bond business, with materials due by September 15, reflecting a systematic and standardized evaluation process [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy document from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes the establishment of a sustainable urban construction and operation financing system, highlighting the importance of bond markets and other financial services in supporting high-quality urban development [1] Group 1: Bond Market Functionality - The bond market is crucial for urban construction financing, with local government special bonds playing a significant role in addressing core needs such as new infrastructure and green transformation [2][3] - Expanding the use of local government special bonds can create a positive cycle between finance and the economy, thereby enhancing urban construction [2][3] - The current low interest rate environment presents an opportunity to leverage the bond market to lower financing costs for urban development [3] Group 2: REITs Advantages - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) serve as an important channel for financing urban construction projects, connecting capital markets with urban development [3][4] - By packaging mature, cash-flow-stable urban projects into REITs, funds can be quickly raised in the public market, creating a cycle of investment and reinvestment [4] - Recent policies have increasingly supported the issuance of REITs in various sectors, including new infrastructure and urban renewal projects [4] Group 3: Long-term Funding Assurance - A sustainable financing system is essential for high-quality urban development, requiring multi-faceted policy efforts to attract social capital and establish a comprehensive financing toolset [5][6] - Optimizing project operation and revenue distribution mechanisms is critical to encourage social capital participation in urban development [6][7] - Reforming local financing platforms and adjusting public utility pricing mechanisms are necessary to enhance resource allocation efficiency and support sustainable development [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is currently perceived as relatively calm by the Federal Reserve's Williams [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields, influenced by weak employment data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4][6] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% but fell back to 4.90% following disappointing employment figures, with only 54,000 jobs added in August, below the forecast of 75,000 [3] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 is now at 97.4%, up from 96.6% the previous day, reflecting traders' expectations based on the economic data [3][4] Group 2 - European bond markets saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield falling by 3.2 basis points to 2.708% and the 30-year yield down by 4.3 basis points to 3.317% [4] - In the UK, bond yields also decreased, with the 2-year yield dropping by 2.8 basis points to 3.944% and the 30-year yield down by 4.5 basis points to 5.558% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.8 basis points to 1.602% [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The futures index still has support [3]. 3. Key Points from Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Data - On September 3, all four major futures index contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.96%, IH dropped 1.29%, IC dropped 1.3%, and IM dropped 1.22% [1]. - The total trading volume of futures indices rebounded on this trading day, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 876 lots, IH increased by 5491 lots, IC decreased by 6690 lots, and IM increased by 551 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 11,866 lots, IH decreased by 7211 lots, IC decreased by 9914 lots, and IM decreased by 2021 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis of Futures Indices - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in the report, showing the differences between the spot and futures prices [1]. 3.3 Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in various futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided, including the increase or decrease in long and short positions and the net changes [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues such as financial market operations, government bond issuance management, central bank bond trading operations, and the improvement of the offshore RMB government bond issuance mechanism. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.95%. The A - share trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan, down from 2.91 trillion yuan the previous day [6].