Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the document. Core Views - This week, the major market indices all increased. Among them, the CSI 500 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - earnings ratio index, and the STAR 50 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - to - book ratio index. In the industry aspect, 27 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top five gainers being building materials, coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building decoration; the declining industries were banking, communication, public utilities, and comprehensive [2]. - In the public fund market, the hot topics included the release of public fund market data by the Asset Management Association of China and the expansion of personal pension funds. In terms of performance, equity funds generally rose this week, with quantitative funds having the largest increase of 2.22%. Pure - bond funds ranged from a decline of 0.30% to an increase of 0.34%. Among FOF funds, pension - target FOF rose 0.60% with a positive - return ratio of 98.09%. Additionally, QDII funds rose an average of 1.10% with a positive - return ratio of 85.36% [3]. - In the ETF market, the overall capital inflow was 1.922 billion yuan this week, with the scale significantly decreasing compared to the previous period. Structurally, cross - border ETFs had the largest capital inflow of 10.322 billion yuan this week, while stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 5.453 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 383.785 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 170.951 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 10.33%. In terms of individual bonds, the inflow trend of STAR - bond - related ETFs continued this week. Among broad - based indices, the CSI A500 index had an outflow close to 8 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry themes, sectors such as Hong Kong non - banking and construction were favored by funds [4]. - This week, 23 new funds were issued, 10 fewer than last week; 36 new funds were established, 2 more than last week. The new funds raised a total of 27.661 billion yuan, 3.003 billion yuan less than last week [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the major equity market indices continued to rise. The STAR 50 had the largest increase of 4.63%, and the CSI 500 also had an increase of over 3%. In the industry sector, 27 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top five gainers being building materials, coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building decoration; the declining industries were banking, communication, public utilities, and comprehensive. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index fell 0.44%, and the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices fell between 0.23% and 0.61%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% [13]. 1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - This week, the major indices in European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index rose 0.98%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.30%, and the Nasdaq index rose 1.02%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose 0.15%, and the German DAX fell 0.30%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.27%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 4.11% [22]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - This week, the major market indices all increased. The CSI 500 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - earnings ratio index, and the STAR 50 led in terms of the increase in the valuation quantile of the price - to - book ratio index. In the industry aspect, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of the price - earnings ratio valuation of the Shenwan primary index this week were real estate, banking, automobiles, electronics, and steel. Among them, the price - earnings ratio valuation quantile of real estate had reached 98.6%, and attention should be paid to the potential correction risk in the future. The five industries with relatively low historical quantiles of the price - earnings ratio valuation this week were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - banking finance, food and beverage, non - ferrous metals, and light manufacturing [25]. 2. Active Public Fund Situation - Market hot topics: On July 24, the Asset Management Association of China released public fund market data. As of the end of June 2025, there were 164 public fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public fund qualifications. These institutions managed a total net asset value of public funds of 34.39 trillion yuan. Personal pension funds had a significant expansion, with the CSI 500 index - enhanced funds from Guotai Haitong Asset Management, Bodao Fund, and Tianhong Fund, as well as the China Merchants CSI 300 index - enhanced fund, announcing the addition of Class Y fund shares only available for purchase with personal pension funds and revising legal documents such as the fund contract. So far, the number of index - enhanced fund products in personal pension funds has increased from 19 to 23, with underlying indices covering many options such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI Dividend [33]. - Market performance: This week, equity funds generally rose, with quantitative funds having the largest increase of 2.22%. Pure - bond funds ranged from a decline of 0.30% to an increase of 0.34%. Among FOF funds, pension - target FOF rose 0.60% with a positive - return ratio of 98.09%. Additionally, QDII funds rose an average of 1.10% with a positive - return ratio of 85.36% [33]. - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, the industries with the largest increase in positions this week were building materials, coal, and building decoration; the industries with the largest decline were national defense and military industry, electronics, and biomedicine. The overall position of active equity funds on July 25, 2025, was 75.38%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points compared to last week [3][41][43]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - This week, the overall capital inflow of the ETF market was 1.922 billion yuan, with the scale significantly decreasing compared to the previous period. Structurally, cross - border ETFs had the largest capital inflow of 10.322 billion yuan this week, while stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 5.453 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 383.785 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 170.951 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 10.33% [4][48]. - In terms of individual bonds, the inflow trend of STAR - bond - related ETFs continued this week. Among broad - based indices, the CSI A500 index had an outflow close to 8 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry themes, sectors such as Hong Kong non - banking and construction were favored by funds. ETF targets with relatively large net inflows included the CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Banking Financial Theme, and the CSI All - Share Building Materials Index; ETF targets with relatively large net outflows included the SSE STAR Market Composite, the SSE STAR 50 Component, and the ChiNext Index [4][49]. 4. Fund Issuance Statistics - This week, 23 new funds were issued in China, 10 fewer than last week. Among them, there were 6 actively managed equity - biased funds and 10 passive index funds. Among the 10 passive index funds, 8 were stock - type, mainly tracking indices such as the China Securities General Aviation Industry, the CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow, the CSI 800 Free Cash Flow, and the China Securities Robot Industry Index [55]. - This week, 36 new funds were established in China, 2 more than last week. The new funds raised a total of 27.661 billion yuan, 3.003 billion yuan less than last week. The largest - raising fund was the Huatai - PineBridge Stable - Benefit 6 - Month Holding Bond A managed by Li Wei and Gan Xinyu, with a raising scale of approximately 3.741 billion yuan [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The low - inflation environment is the foundation of the bond bull market. The recent rise in commodity prices and equity market fluctuations have made investors worry about the change in the bond market trend. However, the long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and adjustments bring opportunities [2]. - The "anti - involution" policy is a structural reform. Although it aims to address over - capacity and boost inflation in the long run, the current implementation may have short - term negative impacts on the economy and may not be conducive to the sustainable recovery of inflation [2]. - The recent fluctuations in the bond market are mainly due to the "anti - involution" policy, the rise in commodity prices, and short - term disturbances in the capital market such as the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Demand - Driven Investment Policies Cannot Change the Low - Inflation State - In Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year reached 5.3%. However, due to the decline in inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 dropped to 3.9%, a new low since the pandemic. This may be the reason for the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Since 2018, China's core CPI has been in a downward trend, especially after 2021, remaining below 1%, which may be affected by the decline of the real estate market. Overseas experience shows that low - inflation environments in major developed economies are usually triggered by demand - side shocks [11]. - China's real estate and urban investment platforms absorbed a large amount of financial resources before 2021. After the real estate market declined, these sectors faced debt risks. The policies to address these risks have limited short - term impact on demand [16]. - In the demand side, measures such as development - oriented policy financial instruments in 2022 and additional treasury bond issuance in 2023 aimed at major project construction. However, they could not fully offset the impact of the decline in urban investment financing on infrastructure investment. Manufacturing investment has become a new driver of stable growth, but it has also led to over - capacity and low inflation [21]. 3.2. The Intention and Alienation of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The low - inflation state in China is closely related to over - capacity in the manufacturing industry, which is the background for the "anti - involution" policy. The capital expenditure growth rate of manufacturing listed companies has been declining, and the over - capacity may be due to local government intervention [25]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 1, 2025, can be regarded as the top - level plan for "anti - involution", aiming to address over - capacity by constraining local government behavior. However, the current implementation focuses on short - term inflation through measures like production restrictions and price alliances, which may not lead to sustainable inflation recovery [27]. - Different from the 2015 supply - side reform, the current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, the price increase caused by production restrictions may be short - term [29]. 3.3. Inflation Priority Increase Does Not Justify Central Bank Tightening; Capital Market Fluctuations Are Affected by Short - Term Factors - The recent tightening of the capital market and the central bank's OMO net withdrawal have made investors worry about the change in monetary policy. However, considering the policy goal of boosting inflation, the central bank has no reason to tighten in the short term [33]. - The freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange has affected the capital market. For example, the 6288 billion yuan frozen for the online issuance of Dingjia Precision on July 22 has caused fluctuations in the capital market. After the funds were unfrozen on July 24, large - scale transfers may have reduced banks' willingness to lend, but the central bank's net withdrawal has increased market concerns [37]. - The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, and the short - term fluctuations in DR001 are expected to return to the 1.3% - 1.4% range [42]. 3.4. Short - Term Focus on Overshoot Rebound; Medium - Term Wait for Further Clarity of Macroeconomic Data - The long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and the short - term bond market may rebound. However, the bond market structure is still fragile after the rebound, and there is a possibility of a second shock [45]. - Currently, trading can be carried out with a volatile mindset. Short - term participation in market rebounds is possible, but profit - taking can be considered when the 10 - year bond yield falls below 1.7%. The greater opportunity in the bond market may come from the falsification of the inflation - boosting expectation of the "anti - involution" policy, which may require a decline in Q3 economic data or the disappointment of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting [46].

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a historical high of 34.39 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with significant contributions from bond funds and a mixed performance in equity funds [1][3][4]. Fund Size Growth - As of June 30, 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 651.9 billion yuan from the end of May [3][4]. - The public bond fund size increased by 507.8 billion yuan in June, reaching 7.28 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth trend observed over four consecutive months [6][5]. Bond Fund Performance - Bond funds were the main contributors to the overall growth, with a monthly increase exceeding 500 billion yuan in June [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain bullish in the second half of the year, supported by favorable fundamentals and liquidity conditions, although there are concerns regarding high leverage and duration risks in a low volatility environment [8][7]. Equity Fund Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, leading to an increase in the size of equity funds [9]. - Stock funds and mixed funds saw increases of 148.3 billion yuan and 121.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.24% and 3.4% [10]. New Fund Issuance - In June, 110 new equity funds were established, raising a total of 51.6 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 40% of the total new fund issuance [11]. - The outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, driven by sectors such as AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside supportive domestic policies [11]. QDII Fund Growth - QDII funds experienced a growth of approximately 4.51%, reaching a total size of 683.7 billion yuan by the end of June, benefiting from strong inflows and favorable market conditions [12][13].

智通财经7月25日电，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.48%，10年期主力合约跌0.07%，5 年期主力合约跌0.04%，2年期主力合约持平。 国债期货收盘多数下跌 30年期主力合约跌0.48% ...

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Japanese government bonds decreased by 990.7 billion yen for the week ending July 18, compared to an increase of 170.4 billion yen in the previous period [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month-on-month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly affected by the large - scale net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The net financing scale of treasury bonds also declined significantly, while the custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - In June, factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a framework of measures and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran boosted market risk appetite. However, supported by factors such as looser liquidity and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, the bond market sentiment warmed up. The short - end interest rates dropped significantly, and the long - end interest rates also declined slightly. The bond - buying demand of trading desks increased significantly. Non - bank institutions significantly increased their bond - buying scale, and insurance institutions turned to increase bond holdings. Banks still had the ability to increase bond holdings despite the record - high net repayment of NCDs, indicating a relief of banks' liability pressure and an increase in market allocation capacity [3][11]. - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June. Although the increase was higher than the seasonal level, it was still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The significant increase in non - bank leverage ratio shows that the main risk in the market is whether institutional sentiment has turned overheated. However, since its absolute value is not high compared with the same period in previous years, the over - heating of sentiment may not have reached its peak [3][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the bond custody increment in June shrank substantially - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly due to the large - scale net repayment of NCDs and the significant decline in the net financing scale of treasury bonds. The custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased by 20.85 billion yuan to 69.95 billion yuan; the custody increment of local government bonds increased by 12.91 billion yuan to 65.14 billion yuan; the custody increment of policy - financial bonds increased slightly by 5.12 billion yuan to 33.33 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes increased by 17.27 billion yuan to 24.63 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of short - term commercial paper narrowed by 1.49 billion yuan to 2.82 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and PPNs continued to decline. The custody volume of NCDs decreased by 71.99 billion yuan from an increase of 26.94 billion yuan last month, and the custody increment of commercial bank bonds decreased by 5.34 billion yuan to 20.84 billion yuan [6]. 2. In June, the willingness of allocation desks to increase holdings declined from a high level, while trading desks increased holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced holdings of NCDs - **General Funds**: In June, the bond custody increment of general funds decreased by 20.77 billion yuan to 60.49 billion yuan. They turned to significantly reduce holdings of NCDs, with the reduction scale reaching a new high since December 2022, but increased holdings of treasury bonds and medium - term notes and turned to increase holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds but reduced allocation of NCDs [14]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 10.23 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 12.61 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of various interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes but also increased the reduction of NCDs. Relative to the stock, they also increased allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but strengthened the reduction of NCDs [19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4.68 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 120 million yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform but slightly reduced holdings of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of local government bonds and significantly weakened the reduction of financial bonds on the Clearstream platform [23]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume of overseas institutions decreased by 11.61 billion yuan in June, with the decline increasing from 9.63 billion yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, and the reduction scale of policy - financial bonds increased, but the reduction scale of commercial bank bonds decreased. Relative to the stock, they maintained a high - level reduction of bonds [27]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume of other institutions (including the central bank) increased by 13.77 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 19.27 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduced the reduction scale of local government bonds, but turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform. The increase in bond custody volume was mainly affected by the change of the central bank's outright repo from a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan in May to a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June [31]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased significantly by 127.48 billion yuan to 40.32 billion yuan in June. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased significantly, which may be affected by the change of the outright repo. They also reduced the increase in holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, turned to reduce holdings of policy - financial bonds and commercial bank bonds, but turned to increase holdings of medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds, commercial bank bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but increased allocation of NCDs [33]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 246 million yuan in June from an increase of 544 million yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and NCDs and decreased the increase in holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and NCDs [38]. 3. The bond market leverage ratio increased significantly in June but was still below the historical neutral level - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June, with the increase higher than the seasonal level but still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The inter - bank average daily pledged repo trading volume increased to 7.77 trillion yuan, and the monthly average balance increased to 12.02 trillion yuan, reaching a new high this year [40]. - **Commercial Banks**: The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.4 percentage points to 103.6% in June, but was still significantly lower than the central level before April 2024 [40]. - **Non - bank Institutions**: The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.8 percentage points to 118.1% in June, with the month - on - month increase being the highest since 2023, but the absolute value was still not high in the past three years. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 9.7 percentage points to 217.1%, reaching a relatively high level in the past three years; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 1.5 percentage points to 114.8%, but was still lower than the central level from June 2022 to December 2024 [40]. - **General Funds**: The repurchase balances of various institutions in general funds generally increased. The repurchase balance of money market funds continued to increase significantly, while the increases in the repurchase balances of non - money products of fund companies and insurance companies were relatively small. The repurchase balance of other products reached a historical high, and the repurchase balance of wealth management products also increased but was still near a historical low [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market closed higher in Q2 2025. The pure - bond funds' quarterly returns were at a medium level in the past three years. The absolute returns of the bond - containing funds rebounded compared to the previous quarter, and their equity positions decreased. Both pure - bond funds and bond - containing funds extended their durations and increased their leverage ratios. The proportion of medium - and low - rated bonds in bond - containing funds slightly increased. The average return of convertible bond funds was positive, with increased valuations and decreased conversion premiums [1][3]. Summary by Directory I. Bond Market Overview - The bond market as a whole closed higher in Q2 2025. The ChinaBond Aggregate Wealth Index rose 1.53%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index rose 1.79%, and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index rose 1.02%. The convertible bond market declined sharply at the beginning of the quarter and then oscillated upwards, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index gaining about 3.77% in Q2 [3][8]. II. Bond - Type Fund Scale Changes - In Q2 2025, the scale of pure - bond funds rebounded. The scale of medium - and long - term bond funds and short - term bond funds increased by 284.5 billion and 165.6 billion respectively, reaching 6.49 trillion and 1.15 trillion. The scale of bond - containing funds also increased overall, with the scale of partial - debt funds rising by 106.6 billion to 1.92 trillion, while the scale of low - position flexible allocation funds decreased to 8.07 billion. The scale of convertible bond funds decreased to 4.97 billion, and the scale of index bond funds increased significantly, reaching about 1.55 trillion by the end of Q2 [3][11]. III. Bond - Type Fund Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, 77 bond - related funds were established, an increase in number compared to the previous quarter. Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds had the largest number of new issuances (38), followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds (15) and passive index - type bond funds (13), with 4 new short - term bond funds. The issuance shares of medium - and long - term bond funds were about 57.3 billion, short - term bond funds were 3.3 billion, and passive index - type bond funds were about 46.2 billion, all showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter. The issuance of bond - containing funds cooled down, with the issuance shares of secondary bond funds and primary bond funds at 15.4 billion and 8.2 billion respectively. There were no new issuances of partial - debt hybrid funds and convertible bond funds [20]. IV. Performance and Position Changes of Pure - Bond Funds 1. Performance of Pure - Bond Funds - In Q2 2025, the average return of short - term bond funds was 0.66% with a median of 0.65%, and the average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was 0.99% with a median of 0.96%. Their returns were at a medium level in the past three years [22]. 2. Bond Allocation of Pure - Bond Funds - As of Q2 2025, the proportion of credit bonds in short - term bond funds was about 85.48%, with an increased allocation to interest - rate bonds compared to the previous quarter. The proportion of credit bonds in medium - and long - term bond funds was about 47.52%, with little change in the bond structure compared to the previous quarter [29]. 3. Duration Distribution and Leverage Ratio of Pure - Bond Funds - As of June 30, 2025, the average duration of pure - bond funds extended to 2.80 years. Pure - bond funds reduced their positions in medium - and short - term bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years and increased their positions in various medium - and long - term bonds with maturities over 3 years. The leverage ratios of short - term and medium - and long - term bond funds increased significantly to 112.51% and 117.40% respectively [32]. 4. Credit Rating Distribution of Pure - Bond Funds - High - rated bonds (long - term AAA and short - term A - 1) accounted for about 96.41%, medium - rated bonds (AA + and AA) accounted for 3.55% (a decrease from the previous quarter), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) accounted for 0.05%. Overall, the credit rating of pure - bond funds slightly improved compared to the previous quarter [37]. V. Performance and Position Changes of Bond - Containing Funds 1. Performance of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, bond - containing funds achieved positive returns overall, and their absolute returns rebounded compared to the previous quarter. The average returns of primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and low - position flexible allocation funds were 1.20%, 1.42%, 1.29%, and 1.03% respectively, at a medium - to - high level in the past three years [37]. 2. Asset Allocation of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, bond - containing funds continued to reduce their equity positions compared to the previous quarter, with both stock and convertible bond positions slightly decreasing. The pure - bond position was 80.85%, the stock position was 7.04%, and the convertible bond position was 7.65%. The stock position decreased by 0.59 percentage points and the convertible bond position decreased by 0.91 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [49]. 3. Bond Allocation of Bond - Containing Funds - The pure - bond positions of various bond - containing funds were mainly credit bonds, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds in the bond market value was between 16 - 20%. As of Q2 2025, the proportion of interest - rate bonds in all types of bond - containing funds increased [51]. 4. Duration Distribution and Leverage Ratio of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, the average duration of bond - containing funds significantly extended to 4.70 years, showing a medium - to - long duration style. Bond - containing funds significantly reduced the proportion of short - term bonds with maturities under 3 years and increased the proportion of medium - and long - term bonds with maturities over 3 years, especially those over 10 years. The median leverage ratio of bond - containing funds also increased significantly to 109.91% compared to the previous quarter [58]. 5. Credit Rating Distribution of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, high - rated bonds (long - term AAA and short - term A - 1) accounted for about 64.36%, medium - rated bonds (AA + and AA) accounted for about 21.43%, and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) accounted for about 14.21%. Compared to the previous quarter, the proportion of high - grade credit bonds decreased, while the proportion of medium - and low - grade credit bonds increased [62]. 6. Stock Holdings of Bond - Containing Funds - In Q2 2025, non - bank finance, banks, and communications were significantly increased in the stock holdings of bond - containing funds, while food and beverage and automobiles were significantly reduced. The top three heavy - position stocks were Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, and Yangtze Power. SF Holding and Alibaba were significantly increased and entered the top ten heavy - position stocks [65][70]. 7. Convertible Bond Holdings of Bond - Containing Funds - As of Q2 2025, the convertible bond holdings of bond - containing funds were mainly allocated to banks, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, electronics, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. The proportion of bank convertible bonds was about 20.16%, with a significant decrease in concentration compared to the previous quarter [73]. VI. Performance and Position Changes of Convertible Bond Funds 1. Performance of Convertible Bond Funds - The convertible bond market closed higher in Q2 2025. All convertible bond funds had positive quarterly returns, with an average of about 3.50%, a relatively high level in the past three years. The ChinaAMC Convertible Bond Fund had the highest return of about 6.38% [77]. 2. Holdings of Convertible Bond Funds - As of Q2 2025, the convertible bond holdings of convertible bond funds were mainly allocated to banks, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment and new energy. The proportion of bank convertible bonds was 16.53%, and that of basic chemical convertible bonds was 10.80%. Compared to the previous quarter, the allocation to non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and pharmaceuticals increased, while the allocation to banks, machinery, and power equipment and new energy decreased. The valuation of convertible bond funds' holdings increased significantly, and the median conversion premium decreased to 28.92% [81][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds last week was mainly dominated by sovereign bonds and the urban investment sector, while the secondary market showed a slight increase. The US Treasury yields fluctuated, and there were various macroeconomic events and data changes both in the US and China [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 17 Chinese offshore bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total scale of approximately $2.61 billion, mainly from sovereign bonds and the urban investment industry [1][6] - The Ministry of Finance of China issued 3 senior bonds totaling 6 billion RMB, which was the largest issuance scale last week [1][8] - Chengdu Tianfu Dagang Group issued a $200 million senior unsecured guaranteed bond with a coupon rate of 7%, which was the newly issued bond with the highest pricing last week [8] - Due to strong market demand, Swire Properties issued 3 green bonds totaling 3.5 billion RMB, with coupon rates of 2.60%, 2.85%, and 3.45%, and the final subscription was over 6 times [8] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Performance of Chinese US Dollar Bond Index - Last week, the Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.23% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index fell 0.04%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds was at 195.7587, with a weekly increase of 0.23%; the high - yield index was at 161.005, with a weekly increase of 0.2% [10] - The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.22% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index was at 237.1, with a weekly increase of 0.21%; the high - yield return index was at 240.0892, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [4] 3.2.2 Performance of Different Industries of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - In terms of industries, the healthcare and communication sectors led the gains, while the real estate and essential consumer sectors led the losses. The healthcare sector's yield decreased by 414.4 bps, and the communication sector's yield decreased by 30.9 bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 1.3 Mbps, and the essential consumer sector's yield increased by 11.3 bps [19] 3.2.3 Performance of Different Ratings of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment - grade names all rose, with the weekly yield of A - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps and that of BBB - rated names decreasing by 4.1 bps. Most high - yield names fell, with the yield of BB - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names increasing by about 120.1 bps, and the yield of unrated names increasing by 346.0 bps [21] 3.2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Zhengrong Real Estate Holding Co., Ltd. failed to repay the principal of RMB 647 million and bond interest of RMB 13 million of the due debt [22] - China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. announced that as of June 30, 2025, the cumulative amount of debt restructuring of financial debts in its "Debt Restructuring Plan" through signing and other means was approximately RMB 192.669 billion [23] - Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. announced that 149,902,564 shares held by its shareholder, Tibet Shimao Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., accounting for 3.9962% of the company's total share capital, were frozen [24] 3.2.5 Subject Rating Adjustments Last Week - Zhejiang Seaport Group's long - term issuer rating was A, and the rating outlook was stable. The reason was that its IDR and outlook were consistent with Fitch's internal assessment of the credit status of the Zhejiang provincial government [26] - Everbright Bank's long - term domestic and foreign currency deposit rating was Baa2, and the rating outlook was stable. Moody's expected the bank to maintain stable asset quality, capitalization, profitability, and liquidity in the next 12 - 18 months [26] - FWD Group's issuer rating was upgraded from Baa2 to Baa1, and the rating outlook was stable. The upgrade reflected the improvement of its profitability and capital generation ability [26] 3.3 US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [27] 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of July 18, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 4.0633%, down 0.24 bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.8691%, down 1.59 bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.9465%, down 2.62 bps; the 10 - year yield was 4.4155%, up 0.62 bps [32] 3.5 Macro News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with market expectations; the PPI in June was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase; the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000; retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than market expectations [29][30][33][34] - The US House of Representatives passed two cryptocurrency bills; President Trump said that drug tariffs might be introduced by the end of the month; the US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation against Brazil; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman has officially started [35][36][37][38] - Japan's exports to the US decreased year - on - year for the third consecutive month in June; in the first half of the year, China's GDP was 66.05 trillion RMB, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; China's social financing scale increment in the first half of the year was 4.74 trillion RMB more than the same period last year; China's goods trade import and export value increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year [40][41][42][43] - China's youth unemployment rate (excluding students) aged 16 - 24 in June dropped to 14.5%; Shanghai residents' per capita disposable income in the first half of the year reached 46,805 RMB, ranking first; the retail sales of the national passenger car market from July 1 - 13 increased by 7% year - on - year [44][45][47] - The housing prices in Chinese cities decreased month - on - month in June, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow; the Dealer Association completed the registration of panda bonds worth 153.5 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year - on - year increase of 165% [48][49]

上半年经济成绩单是否影响下半年政策力度？ 本周，上半年经济成绩单揭晓，1-6 月实际 GDP 同比增长 5.3%，较全年 5.0%的目标高出 0.3 个百分点。这种局面下， 下半年的政策取向值得思考：若完成全年目标压力减轻，是否意味着下半年宏观政策会更趋稳健？这一判断不仅关系 到政策自身的发力节奏，也将直接影响债市表现。特别是在当下利率已处于历史偏低水平、政策预期对利率走势边际 影响显著的背景下，政策是否收敛、何时发力，成为影响下半年债市波动节奏的核心因素之一。 复盘："上半年超目标"的年份里，下半年利率走势差异不小。 2015 年以来，上半年 GDP 超出全年目标的年份包括 2015、2016、2017、2018 和 2023 年，超出幅度分别为 0.1、0.3、 0.5、0.4 和 0.7 个百分点。然而这些年份里，下半年利率走势却明显分化：2015 年利率大幅下行，2016 年先下后上， 2017 年明显上行，2018 和 2023 年震荡下行。这或意味着，相较于"上半年是否达成目标"，下半年经济本身的内在 动能状况、外部扰动强度等因素，往往在更大程度上决定了下半年政策的发力力度与市场运行节奏。从而导致 ...

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank injected a total of 1.2011 trillion yuan through OMO and MLF this week, with a reverse repo of 1.4 trillion yuan on Tuesday[3] - DR001 rose to 1.53% on Tuesday due to tax payments and government bond payments, but stabilized around 1.45% after the tax period ended[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.24 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Government Debt and Financing - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 428.8 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 269.9 billion yuan next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 494.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 2.3889 trillion yuan[4] - The forecast for July government bond issuance was slightly adjusted down to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 460 billion yuan[4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The central bank emphasized that the effects of implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest, indicating a reduced impetus for further loosening in the short term[3] - The central bank's recent decision to remove the freezing of collateral for bond repos may signal a potential restart of bond purchases, although the impact is expected to be limited[3] - Despite expectations of gradual liquidity easing post-tax period, DR001 may not return to the early July low of 1.3%[3]