Group 1: Bond Underwriting Market - CITIC Securities leads the bond underwriting market with a scale of 1.28 trillion yuan, capturing a market share of 6.28% [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) ranks second with an underwriting scale of 1.09 trillion yuan and a market share of 5.37% [1] - The "Guotai Haitong" combination has entered the top three with an underwriting scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] Group 2: Investment Fund Establishment - Western Securities, in collaboration with Shaanxi State-owned Assets, has established a 2 billion yuan merger and acquisition investment fund focusing on strategic emerging industries [2] - This initiative aims to enhance Western Securities' investment banking capabilities and support regional economic revitalization [2] - The fund is expected to catalyze resource integration in high-end manufacturing and new materials sectors in Shaanxi [2] Group 3: Quantitative Private Equity Trends - Leading quantitative private equity firms are aggressively entering niche markets, particularly in the domestic GPU and innovation sectors [3] - There is a notable trend of launching products focused on technology innovation and AI, reflecting a pursuit of excess returns in volatile markets [3] - Some firms are also diversifying into dividend strategies, indicating a shift in risk preferences among quantitative investors [3] Group 4: Growth of Dividend-themed Funds - The issuance of dividend-themed funds has accelerated in the second half of the year, with the number of new products doubling compared to the first half [4] - A total of 37 new dividend-themed funds have been issued, raising a cumulative scale of 20.44 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous period [4] - This trend suggests a growing market preference for stable returns, particularly in sectors with consistent dividend payouts [5]

Group 1 - The primary market is characterized by high entry barriers and significant potential returns, often yielding thousands of times the initial investment, making it essential for capital accumulation [1][3][4] - The semi-primary market and bond market differ fundamentally from the primary market, with the bond market focusing on liquidity to address immediate financial needs and support future growth [1][3][4] - The secondary market is driven by substantial liquidity, where individual investors have limited influence, and success depends on who controls the market dynamics [4][5] Group 2 - Investors and capital managers must engage broadly and continuously improve their skills to navigate various market dynamics effectively [2][5] - Value investing emphasizes specialization and deep engagement in a specific area to create exceptional value [2][5] - The rise of new productive forces, particularly in new materials and technologies, presents significant opportunities for investors in all market segments [2][5]

截至2025年12月11日 13:19，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)上涨0.05%，盘中成交额40.62亿元，市场交投活 跃。截至上个交易日，科创债ETF鹏华最新规模201.42亿元。 华西证券指出，2026年债市可能延续25年偏弱的震荡格局，这也是当前市场较为一致的预期。然而，一 致性预期总是容易被打破。2026年可能变化的方向：一是宽财政向稳财政的转变，如果经济增速目标下 降，对应的财政赤字率也可能同步回落，由此对债券市场来说，政府债的供给压力减轻；二是稳货币能 否过渡为宽货币，进而推动债市表现超出预期。货币政策主动发力，可能需要一些自下而上的风险事件 发酵，如果没有外部因素的刺激，货币政策可能还是以稳为主。因而2026全年债市行情的关键，是等待 货币政策的实质性变化。从节奏上看，或是"前慢后快"，一季度（或春节前）蛰伏，等待货币政策的变 化，及消化潜在的通胀担忧，二、三季度出击，进而容易形成全年低点。 作为首批10只科创债ETF之一，科创债ETF鹏华(551030)跟踪上证AAA科技创新公司债指数，该指数是 从上交所上市的科技创新公司债中，选取主体评级AAA，隐含评级AA+及以上的债券作为成分券。 ...

固收-2026 年机构行为：方寸之间，起舞翩跹 20251210 摘要 2025 年新增债券投资规模达 7 万亿，为往年同期最高值的两倍，但未 显著影响二级市场利率，因大行主要购入短期国债平衡久期，总体规模 有限。 农商行受央行监管及自身业务调整影响，配置债券空间受限，金融投资 增速处于历史低位，部分银行回归存贷主业。 保险公司受保费收入偏弱及资产端策略影响，新增权益资产规模超债券， 对超长期地方政府债保持配置，但对国债投资意愿较弱，并快速抛售长 端国债。 基金杠杆率平稳，久期波动大。一季度受赎回压力，二季度快速拉升久 期，三季度调整后转谨慎，大幅抛售超长债等，四季度参与度低。 展望 2026 年，含权产品占比提升，固收加产品或将扩容，非政策金融 债可能迎来资金流入，新规实施将促使资管机构提升主动管理能力。 预计 2026 年保险行业表现或将走弱，超长期政府债已部分弥补久期缺 口，高股息股票优势显现，传统寿险保费收入预计保持稳定偏弱状态。 预计明年债券市场波动较低，超长期政府债净融资速度保持高位，机构 持仓庞大，为防范系统性风险，央行调控将更精准，大行将维稳市场。 Q&A 2025 年各类机构在债券市场上的行 ...

海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.95% 。 （IMM） 1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 12 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1898 亿元，中标量 1898 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 793 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 1105 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面更加充沛， D R001 加权平均利率降 1bp 至 1.29% 下方。匿名（ X-REPO ）隔夜报价降至 1.25% 再小步下台阶，且供给充足。非银机构 质押信用债融入隔夜资金报价较为稳定在 1.43%-1.5% 附近。 // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.66% 位置，较上日持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | | SA | | 3Y | | 54 | | 74 | | 10Y | | 超长债 | | | - ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，美联储有"大量降息空间"。 当采访者问其这是否意味着超过25个基点时，哈塞特回答说："没错"。 当被问及债券市场时，哈塞特表示，美联储主席最重要的职责是关注经济数据，避免卷入政治。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，美联储有"大量降息空间"。 当采访者问其这是否意味着超过25个基点时，哈塞特回答说："没错"。 当被问及债券市场时，哈塞特表示，美联储主席最重要的职责是关注经济数据，避免卷入政治。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, focusing on various sectors including the midstream manufacturing industry, real estate, and the overall stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4.8%-4.9%, with nominal GDP growth at approximately 4.5% [5][6][12] - Retail sales growth could reach 4%-4.5% under certain subsidy assumptions, while export growth is projected to maintain resilience at about 5% [5][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rise from -3.1% this year to a range of 0%-1%, with manufacturing expected to grow by 2% and real estate continuing to decline by -10% to -13% [5][7] Fiscal Policy and Price Trends - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with budget expenditure growth around 5% and new government debt between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion [6][8] - CPI is projected to gradually rise and turn positive, while PPI trends are uncertain, with potential for stabilization in midstream PPI in the first half of 2026 [6][9][10] Midstream Manufacturing Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is highlighted as the most promising area, benefiting from a recovery with overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins for the first time, reaching 25%-30% [13][16] - Demand growth in this sector has outpaced supply growth for over a year, indicating a recovery in return on equity (ROE) [13][16] Stock Market Outlook - A strategic bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026 is maintained, although the pace of valuation increases and the outperformance of the ChiNext index may weaken [21][23] - The focus will shift towards sectors with low valuation percentiles and high dividend yields, such as insurance and home appliances [23][24] Bond Market Perspective - A cautious view on the bond market is expressed, with expectations of rising yields, particularly for ten-year government bonds, which are projected to exceed 2% [26] - The bond market is considered relatively expensive compared to equities, and adjustments are anticipated [26] Additional Important Insights Uncertainties in Policy Implementation - Several uncertainties regarding policy implementation are identified, including the use of special bonds and the structure of long-term special government bonds [8] - The impact of service consumption subsidies on the service sector and overall economic performance remains to be seen [8] Key Timeframes for Investors - Two critical timeframes in 2026 are highlighted: January for CPI expectations and around May for PPI consensus, which are significant for macroeconomic assessments [12] Investment Focus Areas - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high capacity utilization and low capital expenditure, such as synthetic fibers, black metals, oil and gas, and general equipment [25] - The midstream manufacturing sector is emphasized as the most reliable investment direction due to its current performance and growth potential [20] Future of Real Estate Market - The real estate market's future remains uncertain, with a need for policy support to stabilize prices, especially given the current oversupply situation [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, sector performance, and investment strategies for 2026.

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

智通财经12月8日讯（编辑 杨斌）今日，30年国债活跃券收益率延续上行态势，盘中一度上行超2BP， 午后上行幅度有所收窄。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.29%报112.240元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报107.910元， 5年期主力合约跌0.01%报105.745元，2年期主力合约持平于102.412元。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行，截至下午16:30分，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率上行0.55bp报 1.834%，10年期国开债活跃券250215收益率上行0.6bp至1.931%，30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率上行 0.45bp至2.256%。 | | 利率债二级 信用债二级 NCD二级 NCD二级 CD 基准 ● 前收 | | | | | | | ● 估值 ·· | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y 2Y 200 - 11 - 11 3Y 34 11 11 11 100 74 74 11 11 11 | | | | SY S | | 10Y 10 Year ...

分析周期 2025.11.24-2025.11.30 技术研究部 联系电话：010-67413343 邮箱：research@dagongcredit.com 宏观经济和债券市场一周观点 ——本周信用债发行只数、规模环比下降均超 10%，平均发行成本上行 8.18BP 本期观点摘要 宏观动态 债市观察 债券发行：信用债发行数量、规模环比双降，但净融资额维持净流入，平均发行成 本环比上行 8.18BP。 新券种：浙江二轻成功发行全国首单专项支持智能船舶科创债券。 主体级别下调：本周 2 家发行人主体级别被下调。 主体展望下调：本周无发行人评级展望被下调。 1. 宏观动态 1.1 经济数据方面，制造业 PMI 呈现弱企稳格局，服务业回落 | | | 数据来源：Wind，大公国际整理 注：红色从浅到深对应不同时间的同一指标数值从低到高。黄色为本周更新数据。 11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%，为本年度新低，全社会生产经 营活动从此前的温和扩张转向轻度收缩。制造业 PMI 指数上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.2%， 呈现"弱企稳"格局，主要体现为生产指数回到临界点附近，但新订单恢复力度 ...