Core Viewpoint - The recent measures announced by various government departments aim to stabilize employment and the economy, focusing on employment support, foreign trade development, consumption promotion, effective investment, and optimizing the business environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 29, 2025, the CSI Major Consumption Index (000932) decreased by 0.45%, with component stocks showing mixed performance [1] - Bai Run Co., Ltd. (002568) led the gains with an increase of 9.98%, while Xin Nuo Wei (300765) experienced the largest decline at 7.91% [1] - The Major Consumption ETF (159672) fell by 0.52%, with the latest price at 0.77 yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - Dongguan Securities highlighted that increasing external uncertainties make boosting domestic demand crucial for economic growth, with a focus on consumer policies expected to intensify [2] - Key sectors to watch include the liquor industry and consumer goods related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention on high-growth areas like snacks and dairy products benefiting from fertility policy catalysts [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - The Major Consumption ETF has shown a maximum monthly return of 24.35% since inception, with an average monthly return of 5.89% [2] - As of April 28, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3] Group 4: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Major Consumption ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in comparable funds [4] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumption Index is 19.71, indicating it is at a historical low, below 96.43% of the time over the past year [4] Group 5: Top Holdings - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumption Index accounted for 66.9% of the index, with Kweichow Moutai (600519) being the largest at 10.39% [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintained a low - level volatile operation. However, current macro - level disturbances are still intense. There were repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April, and there is strong uncertainty about the future of the tariff dispute. China's domestic demand boost policies are imminent. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies, make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the medium - and long - term logic of coke remains unchanged. The cost - side drag caused by the loose supply of coking coal and concerns about terminal demand compress the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro - level disturbances and marginal improvements in coke's own fundamentals provide some support for prices. It is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [5][34]. - Coking coal: From March to April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment in the region was relatively stable, with output remaining at a high level. In March, the raw coal output in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and since April, the coal output in Shanxi has continued to operate at a high level, and it is expected to record a positive year - on - year growth. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March. At present, although the price of coking coal has been falling continuously, the situation of loose supply has not been reversed, and the overall fundamentals are still bearish. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,035 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1,008 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamental pressure on coking coal still exists, but recent macro - level disturbances are intense, and the market's long - short game has intensified. The main coking coal contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies in the future [6][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first quarter, the national energy supply was sufficient, and the overall supply - demand situation was loose. Energy production increased steadily, and the growth rate of coal, oil, gas, and electricity production accelerated in March. In the first quarter, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; in March, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year - on - year, with a daily output of more than 14 million tons. The crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 54.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and in March, it increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The natural gas output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 66 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and in March, it increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide in the first quarter reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In March, the growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.1 percentage points higher than that from January to February [8]. - On April 28, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,300 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 3.60% | - 14.79% | - 25.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,350 | 0.75% | - 0.74% | - 16.67% | - 33.50% | | Coking coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,035 | 0.00% | - 4.17% | - 12.29% | - 35.31% | | Coking coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,300 | - 0.76% | - 5.11% | - 12.75% | - 41.96% | | Coking coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 34.88% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,562.0 | - 1.20 | 1,587.0 | 1,553.5 | 23,887 | - 2,703 | 36,957 | 145 | | Coking coal | | 947.0 | - 1.66 | 968.0 | 943.5 | 387,146 | - 63,343 | 339,613 | 2,996 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, coke total inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and other relevant production and consumption - related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][21][28] Market Outlook - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level volatile operation. Due to intense macro - level disturbances and the unchanged medium - and long - term logic, it is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [34] - Coking coal: From March to April, the coal output in Shanxi remained high, and the import volume of Mongolian coal improved in April. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are bearish. The main contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of improvement in April 2025, influenced by external environment changes and market style shifts. The sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and is seen as a safe haven for funds during market volatility [8][34] - The white wine industry is believed to be at its cyclical bottom, with expectations of a stable upward trend in the future. Key companies recommended for investment include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Ancient Well Wine [8][35] Summary by Sections Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the allocation ratio of food and beverage in the overall market funds decreased from 10.6% in Q4 2024 to 9.8%, marking a new low since 2020. Active equity funds also reduced their allocation to 8.1% from 8.3% [5][14] - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 0.2% in Q1 2025, ranking 18th out of 31 sectors, while the transaction amount proportion fell to 2.14% [15][21] Fund Holdings - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q1 2025, indicating a general reduction in holdings across major consumer companies [7][27] - The concentration of fund holdings in the white wine sector increased, with active equity funds raising their allocation from 6.46% in Q4 2024 to 6.57% in Q1 2025, while overall market funds decreased their allocation from 9.0% to 8.5% [6][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the food and beverage sector due to strengthening domestic demand expectations. Key areas of focus include: - Snacks sector, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Yanjinpuzi being highlighted for their growth potential [8][36] - Beer industry, particularly Qingdao Beer, expected to improve due to low base effects and restaurant recovery [8][36] - Dairy industry, with a focus on Yili Group, benefiting from policy catalysts and expected price stabilization [8][36] - Other companies worth noting include Angel Yeast, Ximai Food, and Bairun Co., which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and new product launches [8][36]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the largest consumption ETF (159928) experiencing fluctuations, reflecting a strong capital allocation interest in the consumer sector, with a net inflow of nearly 2.8 billion yuan over the past 60 days [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The consumption ETF (159928) has seen a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan, with a premium widening to 0.12% during the trading session, indicating investor interest [1]. - The ETF's underlying index has achieved record high profits, with a net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [5]. - As of April 23, the consumption ETF (159928) has a total share count exceeding 19.1 billion, maintaining a historical high [5]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Within the food and beverage sector, the white liquor segment has seen an increase in fund holdings, with the proportion of heavy holdings remaining the highest among sectors [5]. - Factors contributing to the increased allocation in the white liquor sector include improved consumer spending intentions, overall valuation uplift, and expected sales growth post-2024 [5]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the consumption ETF account for 67% of its weight, with five leading liquor stocks comprising 36% [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a strengthening of policies in May, which may benefit the consumer sector, particularly in light of recent macroeconomic meetings and a relatively loose capital environment [5]. - The consumption ETF's valuation remains attractive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.66, placing it in the bottom 1.98% of its valuation range over the past decade [5].

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rebound with all three major indices closing higher; Shanghai Composite Index up 0.76% to 3262.81 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and ChiNext Index up 0.34% [1] - Despite over 4300 stocks rising, trading volume decreased to 1.28 trillion yuan, a 5% drop from the previous day, indicating significant capital divergence [1] Short-term Market Characteristics - Rapid rotation of themes observed, with sectors like Hainan (+5.71%), cross-border e-commerce (9 stocks hitting the daily limit), robotics (catalyzed by Tesla's humanoid robot), and precious metals (new highs in international gold prices) leading the gains [1] - High valuation tech stocks such as semiconductors and consumer electronics experienced pullbacks, suggesting weak sustainability of themes and strong short-term profit-taking intentions [1] - Quality performance stocks are gaining traction as the market shifts towards more certain earnings, particularly in sectors like gold and SOC chips, which have shown high growth in Q1 [1] Mid to Long-term Market Logic - The mid to long-term market logic remains focused on "domestic demand boost + technological breakthroughs + resilient foreign trade" [2] - Domestic consumption is being supported by policies like the upgrade of Hainan's duty-free shopping and the Ministry of Finance's expansion of "zero tariffs," benefiting local enterprises and sectors like cross-border e-commerce and new retail [2] - The semiconductor sector, despite facing tariff disruptions, is still favored by institutions for its advanced processes and self-sufficiency directions, alongside themes like AI computing and robotics [2] - New foreign trade patterns are emerging due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, with trends towards regional alliances, RCEP trade facilitation, and a shift towards high-value-added exports [2] Short-term Strategy - Focus on three elastic directions: - Cross-border payment benefiting from the appreciation of the yuan and the decline of the dollar index, with related ETFs and leading stocks expected to see valuation recovery [3] - Export-to-domestic sales, where export chain enterprises with domestic substitution capabilities (e.g., home appliances, light industry) are likely to absorb external shocks through domestic markets [3] - Quality performance lines, with sectors like gold and SOC chips that have pre-increased Q1 earnings and reasonable valuations becoming safe havens for funds [3]

Market Overview - Major indices opened higher with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.42%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.23%, and ChiNext Index up 1.44% [1] - Consumer electronics, Apple supply chain, and CPO sectors showed significant gains [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3251.98, up 0.42% with a trading volume of 60.85 billion [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 9955.66, up 1.23% with a trading volume of 9.85 billion [2] - ChiNext Index: 1954.05, up 1.44% [2] Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities suggests a return to "structural market + hot rotation" style, focusing on low-altitude economy concepts due to an upcoming aviation conference [1] - CITIC Securities emphasizes "domestic demand + countermeasures" as key investment themes, highlighting the importance of domestic stimulus policies amid trade tensions [3] - Galaxy Securities advocates for embracing uncertainty with a focus on domestic demand and hard technology as main investment lines [4] - Huatai Securities notes potential overcrowding in short positions in Hong Kong stocks, recommending investments in domestic consumption, hard technology, and dividend assets [5] - Guojin Securities highlights the increasing necessity for self-sufficiency in the context of rising global protectionism, particularly in high-end industrial equipment and scientific instruments [6][7]

以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与你相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 当地时间 4月2日下午，特朗普在白宫签署关于关税的行政令，宣布对所 有贸 易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，同时对数十个其他国家和地区在10%的 基础上加征更高关税 ，如对中国加征 34%、对越南加征46%等 ，在中国迅速 实施反制措施后，特朗普政府宣布对 中国加征 50%额外关税 ，并于 4月 9 日 将关税提升至 1 25% 。 此次加征关税援引《国际经济紧急权力法》，绕过国会，加征关税力度远超出此前市场预期。 4月3日至4日，主要市场股指普跌，跌幅最大的 是美国市场，纳斯达克指数下跌 -11.4% （进入技术性熊市） ，标普500指数 下跌-10.5%， 道琼斯工业指数下跌 -9.3%。 A股也在节后第一个交易日4月7日遭遇大跌，上证指数下跌-7 .34% ，创 业板指收跌 - 12.5% ，全球股市遭遇黑色星期一。 4月9日，在特朗普宣布对部分贸易伙伴暂停征税9 0 天后，美国三大 股指大幅收涨。 历史的车轮滚滚向前，却留下印迹。 回看 2 018-2019年 ，当时特朗普于第一任期时期也曾对我国相 ...

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Q&A 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响是什么？ 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响主要体现在粮价的短期冲击有限，聚焦粮食安 全和内需提振。大豆等主要农产品的贸易摩擦已经很难大幅推升粮食价格，因 为自 2018 年以来的产业链转移已显著提升应对农产品贸易冲击能力。农业板块 核心催化因素有两大主线：一是自主可控必要性进一步提升，保障粮食安全主 要抓手是种业振兴；二是在内循环重要性增强背景下，内需提振带来的畜禽产 • 中国农产品贸易应对能力显著提升，农业板块核心催化剂包括自主可控需 求驱动的种业振兴，以及内需提振带来的畜禽产品价格回暖预期，进而带 动产业链业绩反转。 • 种植链中，大豆、高粱价格小幅上涨，玉米基本面偏紧，库存消费比处于 十年低位，利好种植链业绩。种业振兴战略强化，生物育种技术储备领先 公司受益。 • 养殖链受贸易摩擦影响较小，内需提振直接拉动鸡肉、水产、猪肉价格。 美国祖代鸡引种暂停导致供给偏紧预期，餐饮需求复苏拉动鸡肉需求定价 边际好转。 • 消费链方面，常规代工短期利空，但全球布局优质产能代工利好，高端品 牌布局国货长期利多。进口宠物食品成本提升，国货龙头性价比凸显。 • 生猪供给持续增加，猪价易跌难涨 ...

Group 1: Economic Recovery and Consumption Trends - The State Council's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" includes 30 key tasks across 8 areas, focusing on both supply and demand to enhance consumption and support economic recovery[1] - In January-February 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in the consumption market[2] - The contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth is expected to exceed 60% in 2025, significantly higher than the 44.5% contribution in 2024[1][9] Group 2: Consumption Upgrades and Market Dynamics - The retail sales of grain and oil products increased by 11.5%, while sports and entertainment goods surged by 25.0% in early 2025, reflecting a clear trend of consumption upgrading[2][3] - Service retail sales grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel and entertainment services during the Spring Festival, highlighting the rising demand for quality services[3] - Despite positive trends, the consumption market faces challenges such as insufficient demand and a notable decline in consumer prices, which fell by 0.7% year-on-year in early 2025[4] Group 3: Policy Measures and Structural Support - The "Plan" emphasizes enhancing consumer capacity through income growth, cost reduction, and improved social security systems to stimulate consumption[5][6] - Supply-side innovations aim to match supply with consumer demand effectively, including expanding pilot programs in telecommunications and healthcare[7] - The establishment of a comprehensive credit system in the consumption sector is expected to enhance consumer trust and promote healthy market development[8][10]